Mainstreaming of Nature-Based Solutions for the mitigation of hydro-meteorological hazard: governance analysis of a socio- technical change

The Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) concept and approach were developed to simultaneously face challenges such as risk mitigation and biodiversity conservation and restoration. NBSs have been endorsed by major International Organizations such as the EU, the FAO and World Bank that are pushing to enable a mainstreaming process. However, a shift from traditional engineering “grey” solutions to wider and standard adoption of NBS encounters technical, social, cultural, and normative barriers that have been identified with a qualitative content analysis of policy documents, reports and expert interviews. The case of the region Emilia-Romagna was studied by developing an analytical framework that brought together the social-ecological context, the governance system and the characteristics of specific NBSs.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Data-driven multivariate flood hazard modeling

The present Dissertation shows how recent statistical analysis tools and open datasets can be exploited to improve modelling accuracy in two distinct yet interconnected domains of flood hazard (FH) assessment. In the first Part, unsupervised artificial neural networks are employed as regional models for sub-daily rainfall extremes. The models aim to learn a robust relation to estimate locally the parameters of Gumbel distributions of extreme rainfall depths for any sub-daily duration (1-24h). The predictions depend on twenty morphoclimatic descriptors. A large study area in north-central Italy is adopted, where 2238 annual maximum series are available. Validation is performed over an independent set of 100 gauges. Our results show that multivariate ANNs may remarkably improve the estimation of percentiles relative to the benchmark approach from the literature, where Gumbel parameters depend on mean annual precipitation. Finally, we show that the very nature of the proposed ANN models makes them suitable for interpolating predicted sub-daily rainfall quantiles across space and time-aggregation intervals. In the second Part, decision trees are used to combine a selected blend of input geomorphic descriptors for predicting FH. Relative to existing DEM-based approaches, this method is innovative, as it relies on the combination of three characteristics: (1) simple multivariate models, (2) a set of exclusively DEM-based descriptors as input, and (3) an existing FH map as reference information. First, the methods are applied to northern Italy, represented with the MERIT DEM (∼90m resolution), and second, to the whole of Italy, represented with the EU-DEM (25m resolution). The results show that multivariate approaches may (a) significantly enhance flood-prone areas delineation relative to a selected univariate one, (b) provide accurate predictions of expected inundation depths, (c) produce encouraging results in extrapolation, (d) complete the information of imperfect reference maps, and (e) conveniently convert binary maps into continuous representation of FH.

Improved ground motion intensity measures for reliability-based demand analysis of structures

In Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE), evaluating the seismic performance (or seismic risk) of a structure at a designed site has gained major attention, especially in the past decade. One of the objectives in PBEE is to quantify the seismic reliability of a structure (due to the future random earthquakes) at a site. For that purpose, Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) is utilized as a tool to estimate the Mean Annual Frequency (MAF) of exceeding a specified value of a structural Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP). This dissertation focuses mainly on applying an average of a certain number of spectral acceleration ordinates in a certain interval of periods, Sa,avg (T1,…,Tn), as scalar ground motion Intensity Measure (IM) when assessing the seismic performance of inelastic structures. Since the interval of periods where computing Sa,avg is related to the more or less influence of higher vibration modes on the inelastic response, it is appropriate to speak about improved IMs. The results using these improved IMs are compared with a conventional elastic-based scalar IMs (e.g., pseudo spectral acceleration, Sa ( T(¹)), or peak ground acceleration, PGA) and the advanced inelastic-based scalar IM (i.e., inelastic spectral displacement, Sdi). The advantages of applying improved IMs are: (i ) "computability" of the seismic hazard according to traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), because ground motion prediction models are already available for Sa (Ti), and hence it is possibile to employ existing models to assess hazard in terms of Sa,avg, and (ii ) "efficiency" or smaller variability of structural response, which was minimized to assess the optimal range to compute Sa,avg. More work is needed to assess also "sufficiency" and "scaling robustness" desirable properties, which are disregarded in this dissertation. However, for ordinary records (i.e., with no pulse like effects), using the improved IMs is found to be more accurate than using the elastic- and inelastic-based IMs. For structural demands that are dominated by the first mode of vibration, using Sa,avg can be negligible relative to the conventionally-used Sa (T(¹)) and the advanced Sdi. For structural demands with sign.cant higher-mode contribution, an improved scalar IM that incorporates higher modes needs to be utilized. In order to fully understand the influence of the IM on the seismis risk, a simplified closed-form expression for the probability of exceeding a limit state capacity was chosen as a reliability measure under seismic excitations and implemented for Reinforced Concrete (RC) frame structures. This closed-form expression is partuclarly useful for seismic assessment and design of structures, taking into account the uncertainty in the generic variables, structural "demand" and "capacity" as well as the uncertainty in seismic excitations. The assumed framework employs nonlinear Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) procedures in order to estimate variability in the response of the structure (demand) to seismic excitations, conditioned to IM. The estimation of the seismic risk using the simplified closed-form expression is affected by IM, because the final seismic risk is not constant, but with the same order of magnitude. Possible reasons concern the non-linear model assumed, or the insufficiency of the selected IM. Since it is impossibile to state what is the "real" probability of exceeding a limit state looking the total risk, the only way is represented by the optimization of the desirable properties of an IM.

Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Vibration as a method for muscular stimulation

Human reactions to vibration have been extensively investigated in the past. Vibration, as well as whole-body vibration (WBV), has been commonly considered as an occupational hazard for its detrimental effects on human condition and comfort. Although long term exposure to vibrations may produce undesirable side-effects, a great part of the literature is dedicated to the positive effects of WBV when used as method for muscular stimulation and as an exercise intervention. Whole body vibration training (WBVT) aims to mechanically activate muscles by eliciting neuromuscular activity (muscle reflexes) via the use of vibrations delivered to the whole body. The most mentioned mechanism to explain the neuromuscular outcomes of vibration is the elicited neuromuscular activation. Local tendon vibrations induce activity of the muscle spindle Ia fibers, mediated by monosynaptic and polysynaptic pathways: a reflex muscle contraction known as the Tonic Vibration Reflex (TVR) arises in response to such vibratory stimulus. In WBVT mechanical vibrations, in a range from 10 to 80 Hz and peak to peak displacements from 1 to 10 mm, are usually transmitted to the patient body by the use of oscillating platforms. Vibrations are then transferred from the platform to a specific muscle group through the subject body. To customize WBV treatments, surface electromyography (SEMG) signals are often used to reveal the best stimulation frequency for each subject. Use of SEMG concise parameters, such as root mean square values of the recordings, is also a common practice; frequently a preliminary session can take place in order to discover the more appropriate stimulation frequency. Soft tissues act as wobbling masses vibrating in a damped manner in response to mechanical excitation; Muscle Tuning hypothesis suggest that neuromuscular system works to damp the soft tissue oscillation that occurs in response to vibrations; muscles alters their activity to dampen the vibrations, preventing any resonance phenomenon. Muscle response to vibration is however a complex phenomenon as it depends on different parameters, like muscle-tension, muscle or segment-stiffness, amplitude and frequency of the mechanical vibration. Additionally, while in the TVR study the applied vibratory stimulus and the muscle conditions are completely characterised (a known vibration source is applied directly to a stretched/shortened muscle or tendon), in WBV study only the stimulus applied to a distal part of the body is known. Moreover, mechanical response changes in relation to the posture. The transmissibility of vibratory stimulus along the body segment strongly depends on the position held by the subject. The aim of this work was the investigation on the effects that the use of vibrations, in particular the effects of whole body vibrations, may have on muscular activity. A new approach to discover the more appropriate stimulus frequency, by the use of accelerometers, was also explored. Different subjects, not affected by any known neurological or musculoskeletal disorders, were voluntarily involved in the study and gave their informed, written consent to participate. The device used to deliver vibration to the subjects was a vibrating platform. Vibrations impressed by the platform were exclusively vertical; platform displacement was sinusoidal with an intensity (peak-to-peak displacement) set to 1.2 mm and with a frequency ranging from 10 to 80 Hz. All the subjects familiarized with the device and the proper positioning. Two different posture were explored in this study: position 1 - hack squat; position 2 - subject standing on toes with heels raised. SEMG signals from the Rectus Femoris (RF), Vastus Lateralis (VL) and Vastus medialis (VM) were recorded. SEMG signals were amplified using a multi-channel, isolated biomedical signal amplifier The gain was set to 1000 V/V and a band pass filter (-3dB frequency 10 - 500 Hz) was applied; no notch filters were used to suppress line interference. Tiny and lightweight (less than 10 g) three-axial MEMS accelerometers (Freescale semiconductors) were used to measure accelerations of onto patient’s skin, at EMG electrodes level. Accelerations signals provided information related to individuals’ RF, Biceps Femoris (BF) and Gastrocnemius Lateralis (GL) muscle belly oscillation; they were pre-processed in order to exclude influence of gravity. As demonstrated by our results, vibrations generate peculiar, not negligible motion artifact on skin electrodes. Artifact amplitude is generally unpredictable; it appeared in all the quadriceps muscles analysed, but in different amounts. Artifact harmonics extend throughout the EMG spectrum, making classic high-pass filters ineffective; however, their contribution was easy to filter out from the raw EMG signal with a series of sharp notch filters centred at the vibration frequency and its superior harmonics (1.5 Hz wide). However, use of these simple filters prevents the revelation of EMG power potential variation in the mentioned filtered bands. Moreover our experience suggests that the possibility of reducing motion artefact, by using particular electrodes and by accurately preparing the subject’s skin, is not easily viable; even though some small improvements were obtained, it was not possible to substantially decrease the artifact. Anyway, getting rid of those artifacts lead to some true EMG signal loss. Nevertheless, our preliminary results suggest that the use of notch filters at vibration frequency and its harmonics is suitable for motion artifacts filtering. In RF SEMG recordings during vibratory stimulation only a little EMG power increment should be contained in the mentioned filtered bands due to synchronous electromyographic activity of the muscle. Moreover, it is better to remove the artifact that, in our experience, was found to be more than 40% of the total signal power. In summary, many variables have to be taken into account: in addition to amplitude, frequency and duration of vibration treatment, other fundamental variables were found to be subject anatomy, individual physiological condition and subject’s positioning on the platform. Studies on WBV treatments that include surface EMG analysis to asses muscular activity during vibratory stimulation should take into account the presence of motion artifacts. Appropriate filtering of artifacts, to reveal the actual effect on muscle contraction elicited by vibration stimulus, is mandatory. However as a result of our preliminary study, a simple multi-band notch filtering may help to reduce randomness of the results. Muscle tuning hypothesis seemed to be confirmed. Our results suggested that the effects of WBV are linked to the actual muscle motion (displacement). The greater was the muscle belly displacement the higher was found the muscle activity. The maximum muscle activity has been found in correspondence with the local mechanical resonance, suggesting a more effective stimulation at the specific system resonance frequency. Holding the hypothesis that muscle activation is proportional to muscle displacement, treatment optimization could be obtained by simply monitoring local acceleration (resonance). However, our study revealed some short term effects of vibratory stimulus; prolonged studies should be assembled in order to consider the long term effectiveness of these results. Since local stimulus depends on the kinematic chain involved, WBV muscle stimulation has to take into account the transmissibility of the stimulus along the body segment in order to ensure that vibratory stimulation effectively reaches the target muscle. Combination of local resonance and muscle response should also be further investigated to prevent hazards to individuals undergoing WBV treatments.

Slope stability analysis by multi-temporal DEMs and 3D modelling: The 2002 and 2007 Stromboli landslide events

Natural hazard related to the volcanic activity represents a potential risk factor, particularly in the vicinity of human settlements. Besides to the risk related to the explosive and effusive activity, the instability of volcanic edifices may develop into large landslides often catastrophically destructive, as shown by the collapse of the northern flank of Mount St. Helens in 1980. A combined approach was applied to analyse slope failures that occurred at Stromboli volcano. SdF slope stability was evaluated by using high-resolution multi-temporal DTMMs and performing limit equilibrium stability analyses. High-resolution topographical data collected with remote sensing techniques and three-dimensional slope stability analysis play a key role in understanding instability mechanism and the related risks. Analyses carried out on the 2002–2003 and 2007 Stromboli eruptions, starting from high-resolution data acquired through airborne remote sensing surveys, permitted the estimation of the lava volumes emplaced on the SdF slope and contributed to the investigation of the link between magma emission and slope instabilities. Limit Equilibrium analyses were performed on the 2001 and 2007 3D models, in order to simulate the slope behavior before 2002-2003 landslide event and after the 2007 eruption. Stability analyses were conducted to understand the mechanisms that controlled the slope deformations which occurred shortly after the 2007 eruption onset, involving the upper part of slope. Limit equilibrium analyses applied to both cases yielded results which are congruent with observations and monitoring data. The results presented in this work undoubtedly indicate that hazard assessment for the island of Stromboli should take into account the fact that a new magma intrusion could lead to further destabilisation of the slope, which may be more significant than the one recently observed because it will affect an already disarranged deposit and fractured and loosened crater area. The two-pronged approach based on the analysis of 3D multi-temporal mapping datasets and on the application of LE methods contributed to better understanding volcano flank behaviour and to be prepared to undertake actions aimed at risk mitigation.

Wavelet analysis of heart rate variability related to nocturnal frontal lobe epilepsy seizures

Introduction: Nocturnal frontal lobe epilepsy (NFLE) is a distinct syndrome of partial epilepsy whose clinical features comprise a spectrum of paroxysmal motor manifestations of variable duration and complexity, arising from sleep. Cardiovascular changes during NFLE seizures have previously been observed, however the extent of these modifications and their relationship with seizure onset has not been analyzed in detail. Objective: Aim of present study is to evaluate NFLE seizure related changes in heart rate (HR) and in sympathetic/parasympathetic balance through wavelet analysis of HR variability (HRV). Methods: We evaluated the whole night digitally recorded video-polysomnography (VPSG) of 9 patients diagnosed with NFLE with no history of cardiac disorders and normal cardiac examinations. Events with features of NFLE seizures were selected independently by three examiners and included in the study only if a consensus was reached. Heart rate was evaluated by measuring the interval between two consecutive R-waves of QRS complexes (RRi). RRi series were digitally calculated for a period of 20 minutes, including the seizures and resampled at 10 Hz using cubic spline interpolation. A multiresolution analysis was performed (Daubechies-16 form), and the squared level specific amplitude coefficients were summed across appropriate decomposition levels in order to compute total band powers in bands of interest (LF: 0.039062 - 0.156248, HF: 0.156248 - 0.624992). A general linear model was then applied to estimate changes in RRi, LF and HF powers during three different period (Basal) (30 sec, at least 30 sec before seizure onset, during which no movements occurred and autonomic conditions resulted stationary); pre-seizure period (preSP) (10 sec preceding seizure onset) and seizure period (SP) corresponding to the clinical manifestations. For one of the patients (patient 9) three seizures associated with ictal asystole were recorded, hence he was treated separately. Results: Group analysis performed on 8 patients (41 seizures) showed that RRi remained unchanged during the preSP, while a significant tachycardia was observed in the SP. A significant increase in the LF component was instead observed during both the preSP and the SP (p<0.001) while HF component decreased only in the SP (p<0.001). For patient 9 during the preSP and in the first part of SP a significant tachycardia was observed associated with an increased sympathetic activity (increased LF absolute values and LF%). In the second part of the SP a progressive decrease in HR that gradually exceeded basal values occurred before IA. Bradycardia was associated with an increase in parasympathetic activity (increased HF absolute values and HF%) contrasted by a further increase in LF until the occurrence of IA. Conclusions: These data suggest that changes in autonomic balance toward a sympathetic prevalence always preceded clinical seizure onset in NFLE, even when HR changes were not yet evident, confirming that wavelet analysis is a sensitive technique to detect sudden variations of autonomic balance occurring during transient phenomena. Finally we demonstrated that epileptic asystole is associated with a parasympathetic hypertonus counteracted by a marked sympathetic activation.

Reconstruction of Etna recent flank eruptions for assessing diversion barrier project

The thesis contributed to the volcanic hazard assessment through the reconstruction of some historical flank eruptions of Etna in order to obtain quantitative data (volumes, effusion rates, etc.) for characterizing the recent effusive activity, quantifying the impact on the territory and defining mitigation actions for reducing the volcanic risk as for example containment barriers. The reconstruction was based on a quantitative approach using data extracted from aerial photographs and topographic maps. The approach allows to obtain the temporal evolution of the lava flow field and estimating the Time Average Discharge Rate (TADR) by dividing the volume emplaced over a given time interval for the corresponding duration. The analysis concerned the 2001, 1981 and 1928 Etna eruptions. The choice of these events is linked to their impact on inhabited areas. The results of the analysis showed an extraordinarily high effusion rate for the 1981 and 1928 eruptions (over 600 m^3/s), unusual for Etna eruptions. For the 1981 Etna eruption an eruptive model was proposed to explain the high discharge rate. The obtained TADRs were used as input data for simulations of the propagation of the lava flows for evaluating different scenarios of volcanic hazard and analyse different mitigation actions against lava flow invasion. It was experienced how numerical simulations could be adopted for evaluating the effectiveness of barrier construction and for supporting their optimal design. In particular, the gabions were proposed as an improvement for the construction of barriers with respect to the earthen barriers. The gabion barriers allow to create easily modular structures reducing the handled volumes and the intervention time. For evaluating operational constrain an experimental test was carried out to test the filling of the gabions with volcanic rock and evaluating their deformation during transport and placement.

Development of parallelizable flood inundation models for large scale analysis

Flood disasters are a major cause of fatalities and economic losses, and several studies indicate that global flood risk is currently increasing. In order to reduce and mitigate the impact of river flood disasters, the current trend is to integrate existing structural defences with non structural measures. This calls for a wider application of advanced hydraulic models for flood hazard and risk mapping, engineering design, and flood forecasting systems. Within this framework, two different hydraulic models for large scale analysis of flood events have been developed. The two models, named CA2D and IFD-GGA, adopt an integrated approach based on the diffusive shallow water equations and a simplified finite volume scheme. The models are also designed for massive code parallelization, which has a key importance in reducing run times in large scale and high-detail applications. The two models were first applied to several numerical cases, to test the reliability and accuracy of different model versions. Then, the most effective versions were applied to different real flood events and flood scenarios. The IFD-GGA model showed serious problems that prevented further applications. On the contrary, the CA2D model proved to be fast and robust, and able to reproduce 1D and 2D flow processes in terms of water depth and velocity. In most applications the accuracy of model results was good and adequate to large scale analysis. Where complex flow processes occurred local errors were observed, due to the model approximations. However, they did not compromise the correct representation of overall flow processes. In conclusion, the CA model can be a valuable tool for the simulation of a wide range of flood event types, including lowland and flash flood events.

Analysis and development of ecologically based approaches to coastal defense

Climate-change related impacts, notably coastal erosion, inundation and flooding from sea level rise and storms, will increase in the coming decades enhancing the risks for coastal populations. Further recourse to coastal armoring and other engineered defenses to address risk reduction will exacerbate threats to coastal ecosystems. Alternatively, protection services provided by healthy ecosystems is emerging as a key element in climate adaptation and disaster risk management. I examined two distinct approaches to coastal defense on the base of their ecological and ecosystem conservation values. First, I analyzed the role of coastal ecosystems in providing services for hazard risk reduction. The value in wave attenuation of coral reefs was quantitatively demonstrated using a meta-analysis approach. Results indicate that coral reefs can provide wave attenuation comparable to hard engineering artificial defenses and at lower costs. Conservation and restoration of existing coral reefs are cost-effective management options for disaster risk reduction. Second, I evaluated the possibility to enhance the ecological value of artificial coastal defense structures (CDS) as habitats for marine communities. I documented the suitability of CDS to support native, ecologically relevant, habitat-forming canopy algae exploring the feasibility of enhancing CDS ecological value by promoting the growth of desired species. Juveniles of Cystoseira barbata can be successfully transplanted at both natural and artificial habitats and not affected by lack of surrounding adult algal individuals nor by substratum orientation. Transplantation success was limited by biotic disturbance from macrograzers on CDS compared to natural habitats. Future work should explore the reasons behind the different ecological functioning of artificial and natural habitats unraveling the factors and mechanisms that cause it. The comprehension of the functioning of systems associated with artificial habitats is the key to allow environmental managers to identify proper mitigation options and to forecast the impact of alternative coastal development plans.

Analysis of slip distribution of large earthquakes oriented to tsunamigenesis characterisation

The present thesis focuses on the on-fault slip distribution of large earthquakes in the framework of tsunami hazard assessment and tsunami warning improvement. It is widely known that ruptures on seismic faults are strongly heterogeneous. In the case of tsunamigenic earthquakes, the slip heterogeneity strongly influences the spatial distribution of the largest tsunami effects along the nearest coastlines. Unfortunately, after an earthquake occurs, the so-called finite-fault models (FFM) describing the coseismic on-fault slip pattern becomes available over time scales that are incompatible with early tsunami warning purposes, especially in the near field. Our work aims to characterize the slip heterogeneity in a fast, but still suitable way. Using finite-fault models to build a starting dataset of seismic events, the characteristics of the fault planes are studied with respect to the magnitude. The patterns of the slip distribution on the rupture plane, analysed with a cluster identification algorithm, reveal a preferential single-asperity representation that can be approximated by a two-dimensional Gaussian slip distribution (2D GD). The goodness of the 2D GD model is compared to other distributions used in literature and its ability to represent the slip heterogeneity in the form of the main asperity is proven. The magnitude dependence of the 2D GD parameters is investigated and turns out to be of primary importance from an early warning perspective. The Gaussian model is applied to the 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake and used to compute early tsunami predictions that are satisfactorily compared with the available observations. The fast computation of the 2D GD and its suitability in representing the slip complexity of the seismic source make it a useful tool for the tsunami early warning assessments, especially for what concerns the near field.

Myotonic syndromes: analysis of factors with pathogenetic and prognostic significance

Background: The natural history of Myotonic Dystrophy type 1 is largely unclear, longitudinal studies are lacking. Objectives: to collect clinical and laboratory data, to evaluate sleep disorders, somatic and autonomic skin fibres, neuropsychological and neuroradiological aspects in DM1 patients. Methods: 72 DM1 patients underwent a standardized clinical and neuroradiological evaluation performed by a multidisciplinary team during 3 years of follow-up. Results: longer disease duration was associated with higher incidence of conduction disorders and lower ejection fraction; higher CVF values were predictors for a reduced risk of cardiopathy. Lower functional pulmonary values were associated with class of expansion and were negatively associated with disease duration; arterial blood gas parameters were not associated with expansion size, disease duration nor with respiratory function test. Excessive daytime sleepiness was not associated with class of expansion nor with any of the clinical parameters examined. We detected apnoea in a large percentage of patients, without differences between the 3 genetic classes; higher CVF values were predictors for a reduced risk of apnoea. Skin biopsies demonstrated the presence of a subclinical small fibre neuropathy with involvement of the somatic fibres. The pupillometry study showed lower pupil size at baseline and a lower constriction response to light. The most affected neuropsychological domains were executive functions, visuoconstructional, attention and visuospatial tasks, with a worse performance of E1 patients in the visuoperceptual ability and social cognition tasks. MRI study demonstrated a decrease in the volumes of frontal, parietal, temporal, occipital cortices, accumbens, putamen nuclei and a more severe volume reduction of the isthmus cingulate, transverse temporal, superior parietal and temporal gyri in E2 patients. Discussion: only some clinical parameters could predict the risk of cardiopathy, pulmonary syndrome and sleep disorders, while other clinical aspects proved to be unpredictable, confirming the importance of periodic clinical follow-up of these patients.

Probing the innermost regions of AGN via time-resolved spectral analysis

The dynamics and geometry of the material inflowing and outflowing close to the supermassive black hole in active galactic nuclei are still uncertain. X-rays are the most suitable way to study the AGN innermost regions because of the Fe Kα emission line, a proxy of accretion, and Fe absorption lines produced by outflows. Winds are typically classified as Warm Absorbers (slow and mildly ionized) and Ultra Fast Outflows (fast and highly ionized). Transient Obscurers -optically thick winds that produce strong spectral hardening in X-rays, lasting from days to months- have been observed recently. Emission and absorption features vary on time-scales from hours to years, probing phenomena at different distances from the SMBH. In this work, we use time-resolved spectral analysis to investigate the accretion and ejection flows, to characterize them individually and search for correlations. We analyzed XMM-Newtomn data of a set of the brightest Seyfert 1 galaxies that went through an obscuration event: NGC 3783, NGC 3227, NGC 5548, and NGC 985. Our aim is to search for emission/absorption lines in short-duration spectra (∼ 10ks), to explore regions as close as the SMBH as the statistics allows for, and possibly catch transient phenomena. First we run a blind search to detect emission/absorption features, then we analyze their evolution with Residual Maps: we visualize simultaneously positive and negative residuals from the continuum in the time-energy plane, looking for patterns and relative time-scales. In NGC 3783 we were able to ascribe variations of the Fe Kα emission line to absorptions at the same energy due to clumps in the obscurer, whose presence is detected at >3σ, and to determine the size of the clumps. In NGC 3227 we detected a wind at ∼ 0.2c at ∼ 2σ, briefly appearing during an obscuration event.

Analysis of heat-related phenomena and their interactions at different spatio-temporal scales

This thesis analyzes the impact of heat extremes in urban and rural environments, considering processes related to severely high temperatures and unusual dryness. The first part deals with the influence of large-scale heatwave events on the local-scale urban heat island (UHI) effect. The temperatures recorded over a 20-year summer period by meteorological stations in 37 European cities are examined to evaluate the variations of UHI during heatwaves with respect to non-heatwave days. A statistical analysis reveals a negligible impact of large-scale extreme temperatures on the local daytime urban climate, while a notable exacerbation of UHI effect at night. A comparison with the UrbClim model outputs confirms the UHI strengthening during heatwave episodes, with an intensity independent of the climate zone. The investigation of the relationship between large-scale temperature anomalies and UHI highlights a smooth and continuous dependence, but with a strong variability. The lack of a threshold behavior in this relationship suggests that large-scale temperature variability can affect the local-scale UHI even in different conditions than during extreme events. The second part examines the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought, being the first stage of the drought propagation process. A multi-year reanalysis dataset involving numerous drought events over the Iberian Peninsula is considered. The behavior of different non-parametric standardized drought indices in drought detection is evaluated. A statistical approach based on run theory is employed, analyzing the main characteristics of drought propagation. The propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought events is found to develop in about 1-2 months. The duration of agricultural drought appears shorter than that of meteorological drought, but the onset is delayed. The propagation probability increases with the severity of the originating meteorological drought. A new combined agricultural drought index is developed to be a useful tool for balancing the characteristics of other adopted indices.