Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Caratterizzazione di membrane metalliche e ionomeriche per applicazioni energetiche

The work of this thesis has been focused on the characterization of metallic membranes for the hydrogen purification from steam reforming process and also of perfluorosulphonic acid ionomeric (PFSI) membranes suitable as electrolytes in fuel cell applications. The experimental study of metallic membranes was divided in three sections: synthesis of palladium and silver palladium coatings on porous ceramic support via electroless deposition (ELD), solubility and diffusivity analysis of hydrogen in palladium based alloys (temperature range between 200 and 400 °C up to 12 bar of pressure) and permeation experiments of pure hydrogen and mixtures containing, besides hydrogen, also nitrogen and methane at high temperatures (up to 600 °C) and pressures (up to 10 bar). Sequential deposition of palladium and silver on to porous alumina tubes by ELD technique was carried out using two different procedures: a stirred batch and a continuous flux method. Pure palladium as well as Pd-Ag membranes were produced: the Pd-Ag membranes’ composition is calculated to be close to 77% Pd and 23% Ag by weight which was the target value that correspond to the best performance of the palladium-based alloys. One of the membranes produced showed an infinite selectivity through hydrogen and relatively high permeability value and is suitable for the potential use as a hydrogen separator. The hydrogen sorption in silver palladium alloys was carried out in a gravimetric system on films produced by ELD technique. In the temperature range inspected, up to 400°C, there is still a lack in literature. The experimental data were analyzed with rigorous equations allowing to calculate the enthalpy and entropy values of the Sieverts’ constant; the results were in very good agreement with the extrapolation made with literature data obtained a lower temperature (up to 150 °C). The information obtained in this study would be directly usable in the modeling of hydrogen permeation in Pd-based systems. Pure and mixed gas permeation tests were performed on Pd-based hydrogen selective membranes at operative conditions close to steam-reforming ones. Two membranes (one produced in this work and another produced by NGK Insulators Japan) showed a virtually infinite selectivity and good permeability. Mixture data revealed the existence of non negligible resistances to hydrogen transport in the gas phase. Even if the decrease of the driving force due to polarization concentration phenomena occurs, in principle, in all membrane-based separation systems endowed with high perm-selectivity, an extensive experimental analysis lack, at the moment, in the palladium-based membrane process in literature. Moreover a new procedure has been introduced for the proper comparison of the mass transport resistance in the gas phase and in the membrane. Another object of study was the water vapor sorption and permeation in PFSI membranes with short and long side chains was also studied; moreover the permeation of gases (i.e. He, N2 and O2) in dry and humid conditions was considered. The water vapor sorption showed strong interactions between the hydrophilic groups and the water as revealed from the hysteresis in the sorption-desorption isotherms and thermo gravimetric analysis. The data obtained were used in the modeling of water vapor permeation, that was described as diffusion-reaction of water molecules, and in the humid gases permeation experiments. In the dry gas experiments the permeability and diffusivity was found to increase with temperature and with the equivalent weight (EW) of the membrane. A linear correlation was drawn between the dry gas permeability and the opposite of the equivalent weight of PFSI membranes, based on which the permeability of pure PTFE is retrieved in the limit of high EW. In the other hand O2 ,N2 and He permeability values was found to increase significantly, and in a similar fashion, with water activity. A model that considers the PFSI membrane as a composite matrix with a hydrophilic and a hydrophobic phase was considered allowing to estimate the variation of gas permeability with relative humidity on the basis of the permeability in the dry PFSI membrane and in pure liquid water.

Crustal heterogeneities and complexities of fault processes

In this work we study the relation between crustal heterogeneities and complexities in fault processes. The first kind of heterogeneity considered involves the concept of asperity. The presence of an asperity in the hypocentral region of the M = 6.5 earthquake of June 17-th, 2000 in the South Iceland Seismic Zone was invoked to explain the change of seismicity pattern before and after the mainshock: in particular, the spatial distribution of foreshock epicentres trends NW while the strike of the main fault is N 7◦ E and aftershocks trend accordingly; the foreshock depths were typically deeper than average aftershock depths. A model is devised which simulates the presence of an asperity in terms of a spherical inclusion, within a softer elastic medium in a transform domain with a deviatoric stress field imposed at remote distances (compressive NE − SW, tensile NW − SE). An isotropic compressive stress component is induced outside the asperity, in the direction of the compressive stress axis, and a tensile component in the direction of the tensile axis; as a consequence, fluid flow is inhibited in the compressive quadrants while it is favoured in tensile quadrants. Within the asperity the isotropic stress vanishes but the deviatoric stress increases substantially, without any significant change in the principal stress directions. Hydrofracture processes in the tensile quadrants and viscoelastic relaxation at depth may contribute to lower the effective rigidity of the medium surrounding the asperity. According to the present model, foreshocks may be interpreted as induced, close to the brittle-ductile transition, by high pressure fluids migrating upwards within the tensile quadrants; this process increases the deviatoric stress within the asperity which eventually fails, becoming the hypocenter of the mainshock, on the optimally oriented fault plane. In the second part of our work we study the complexities induced in fault processes by the layered structure of the crust. In the first model proposed we study the case in which fault bending takes place in a shallow layer. The problem can be addressed in terms of a deep vertical planar crack, interacting with a shallower inclined planar crack. An asymptotic study of the singular behaviour of the dislocation density at the interface reveals that the density distribution has an algebraic singularity at the interface of degree ω between -1 and 0, depending on the dip angle of the upper crack section and on the rigidity contrast between the two media. From the welded boundary condition at the interface between medium 1 and 2, a stress drop discontinuity condition is obtained which can be fulfilled if the stress drop in the upper medium is lower than required for a planar trough-going surface: as a corollary, a vertically dipping strike-slip fault at depth may cross the interface with a sedimentary layer, provided that the shallower section is suitably inclined (fault "refraction"); this results has important implications for our understanding of the complexity of the fault system in the SISZ; in particular, we may understand the observed offset of secondary surface fractures with respect to the strike direction of the seismic fault. The results of this model also suggest that further fractures can develop in the opposite quadrant and so a second model describing fault branching in the upper layer is proposed. As the previous model, this model can be applied only when the stress drop in the shallow layer is lower than the value prescribed for a vertical planar crack surface. Alternative solutions must be considered if the stress drop in the upper layer is higher than in the other layer, which may be the case when anelastic processes relax deviatoric stress in layer 2. In such a case one through-going crack cannot fulfil the welded boundary conditions and unwelding of the interface may take place. We have solved this problem within the theory of fracture mechanics, employing the boundary element method. The fault terminates against the interface in a T-shaped configuration, whose segments interact among each other: the lateral extent of the unwelded surface can be computed in terms of the main fault parameters and the stress field resulting in the shallower layer can be modelled. A wide stripe of high and nearly uniform shear stress develops above the unwelded surface, whose width is controlled by the lateral extension of unwelding. Secondary shear fractures may then open within this stripe, according to the Coulomb failure criterion, and the depth of open fractures opening in mixed mode may be computed and compared with the well studied fault complexities observed in the field. In absence of the T-shaped decollement structure, stress concentration above the seismic fault would be difficult to reconcile with observations, being much higher and narrower.

Pulsating variable stars as tracers of galactic structure and interaction mechanisms

My PhD project has been focused on the study of the pulsating variable stars in two ultra-faint dwarf spheroidal satellites of the Milky Way, namely, Leo IV and Hercules; and in two fields of the Large Magellanic Cloud (namely, the Gaia South Ecliptic Pole calibration field, and the 30 Doradus region) that were repeatedly observed in the KS band by the VISTA Magellanic Cloud (VMC, PI M.R. Cioni) survey of the Magellanic System.

Integrated analysis and design of optimization and up-scaling of inductively coupled plasma synthesis of nanoparticles

This study is focused on radio-frequency inductively coupled thermal plasma (ICP) synthesis of nanoparticles, combining experimental and modelling approaches towards process optimization and industrial scale-up, in the framework of the FP7-NMP SIMBA European project (Scaling-up of ICP technology for continuous production of Metallic nanopowders for Battery Applications). First the state of the art of nanoparticle production through conventional and plasma routes is summarized, then results for the characterization of the plasma source and on the investigation of the nanoparticle synthesis phenomenon, aiming at highlighting fundamental process parameters while adopting a design oriented modelling approach, are presented. In particular, an energy balance of the torch and of the reaction chamber, employing a calorimetric method, is presented, while results for three- and two-dimensional modelling of an ICP system are compared with calorimetric and enthalpy probe measurements to validate the temperature field predicted by the model and used to characterize the ICP system under powder-free conditions. Moreover, results from the modeling of critical phases of ICP synthesis process, such as precursor evaporation, vapour conversion in nanoparticles and nanoparticle growth, are presented, with the aim of providing useful insights both for the design and optimization of the process and on the underlying physical phenomena. Indeed, precursor evaporation, one of the phases holding the highest impact on industrial feasibility of the process, is discussed; by employing models to describe particle trajectories and thermal histories, adapted from the ones originally developed for other plasma technologies or applications, such as DC non-transferred arc torches and powder spherodization, the evaporation of micro-sized Si solid precursor in a laboratory scale ICP system is investigated. Finally, a discussion on the role of thermo-fluid dynamic fields on nano-particle formation is presented, as well as a study on the effect of the reaction chamber geometry on produced nanoparticle characteristics and process yield.

Displacement Analysis of Under-Constrained Cable-Driven Parallel Robots

This dissertation studies the geometric static problem of under-constrained cable-driven parallel robots (CDPRs) supported by n cables, with n ≤ 6. The task consists of determining the overall robot configuration when a set of n variables is assigned. When variables relating to the platform posture are assigned, an inverse geometric static problem (IGP) must be solved; whereas, when cable lengths are given, a direct geometric static problem (DGP) must be considered. Both problems are challenging, as the robot continues to preserve some degrees of freedom even after n variables are assigned, with the final configuration determined by the applied forces. Hence, kinematics and statics are coupled and must be resolved simultaneously. In this dissertation, a general methodology is presented for modelling the aforementioned scenario with a set of algebraic equations. An elimination procedure is provided, aimed at solving the governing equations analytically and obtaining a least-degree univariate polynomial in the corresponding ideal for any value of n. Although an analytical procedure based on elimination is important from a mathematical point of view, providing an upper bound on the number of solutions in the complex field, it is not practical to compute these solutions as it would be very time-consuming. Thus, for the efficient computation of the solution set, a numerical procedure based on homotopy continuation is implemented. A continuation algorithm is also applied to find a set of robot parameters with the maximum number of real assembly modes for a given DGP. Finally, the end-effector pose depends on the applied load and may change due to external disturbances. An investigation into equilibrium stability is therefore performed.