Ingegneria di sistemi auto‐organizzanti con il paradigma multiagente

Self-organisation is increasingly being regarded as an effective approach to tackle modern systems complexity. The self-organisation approach allows the development of systems exhibiting complex dynamics and adapting to environmental perturbations without requiring a complete knowledge of the future surrounding conditions. However, the development of self-organising systems (SOS) is driven by different principles with respect to traditional software engineering. For instance, engineers typically design systems combining smaller elements where the composition rules depend on the reference paradigm, but typically produce predictable results. Conversely, SOS display non-linear dynamics, which can hardly be captured by deterministic models, and, although robust with respect to external perturbations, are quite sensitive to changes on inner working parameters. In this thesis, we describe methodological aspects concerning the early-design stage of SOS built relying on the Multiagent paradigm: in particular, we refer to the A&A metamodel, where MAS are composed by agents and artefacts, i.e. environmental resources. Then, we describe an architectural pattern that has been extracted from a recurrent solution in designing self-organising systems: this pattern is based on a MAS environment formed by artefacts, modelling non-proactive resources, and environmental agents acting on artefacts so as to enable self-organising mechanisms. In this context, we propose a scientific approach for the early design stage of the engineering of self-organising systems: the process is an iterative one and each cycle is articulated in four stages, modelling, simulation, formal verification, and tuning. During the modelling phase we mainly rely on the existence of a self-organising strategy observed in Nature and, hopefully encoded as a design pattern. Simulations of an abstract system model are used to drive design choices until the required quality properties are obtained, thus providing guarantees that the subsequent design steps would lead to a correct implementation. However, system analysis exclusively based on simulation results does not provide sound guarantees for the engineering of complex systems: to this purpose, we envision the application of formal verification techniques, specifically model checking, in order to exactly characterise the system behaviours. During the tuning stage parameters are tweaked in order to meet the target global dynamics and feasibility constraints. In order to evaluate the methodology, we analysed several systems: in this thesis, we only describe three of them, i.e. the most representative ones for each of the three years of PhD course. We analyse each case study using the presented method, and describe the exploited formal tools and techniques.

Gobierno, corte y ciudad en Nápoles: el fin del Parlamento y la crisis del gobierno virreinal (1637-1647)

En esta Tesis Doctoral se aborda el análisis de la Nápoles virreinal entre 1637 y 1647 con una investigación en tres planos: gobierno, corte y ciudad. Esto se realiza a través del estudio del gobierno de Nápoles, con especial atención al Parlamento General del Reino, que se convocó por última vez en 1642. Con la óptica privilegiada que brinda esta institución entre la administración virreinal y urbana, es posible comprender los intereses locales, la agenda napolitana en las dinámicas globales de la Monarquía, los intereses de linaje o “públicos” de los virreyes y, en definitiva, se pone de manifiesto una nueva mirada que parte de la propia realidad napolitana para comprender la estructura de gobierno, a través de fuentes inéditas y labor de archivo, en un periodo convulso para la Monarquía de España. Con todo, se insertan las instituciones en las dinámicas políticas y ceremoniales de la ciudad y Reino de Nápoles. Asimismo, todo ello se estudia a través del canal de la corte de Madrid, ya que los virreyes eran nombrados por el rey y lo representaban en el Reino. Por tanto, las decisiones de gobierno se veían afectadas por las circunstancias cortesanas. En concreto, este periodo coincide con los años de la privanza del conde-duque y el posterior ascenso de Luis de Haro. Así, los virreyes duque de Medina de las Torres, Almirante de Castilla y duque de Arcos se incardinan no solo en la política napolitana, sino en la de la Monarquía de Felipe IV. Por último, la ciudad es actor principal de esta investigación, en su configuración física y simbólica, ya que la capital tuvo una significación singular en el caso napolitano por la sociografía de sus élites y su implicación en el gobierno municipal.

Knowledge Flows and Networks: the Interplay between Local and Global Linkages within Bangalore IT Cluster

This doctoral work gains deeper insight into the dynamics of knowledge flows within and across clusters, unfolding their features, directions and strategic implications. Alliances, networks and personnel mobility are acknowledged as the three main channels of inter-firm knowledge flows, thus offering three heterogeneous measures to analyze the phenomenon. The interplay between the three channels and the richness of available research methods, has allowed for the elaboration of three different papers and perspectives. The common empirical setting is the IT cluster in Bangalore, for its distinguished features as a high-tech cluster and for its steady yearly two-digit growth around the service-based business model. The first paper deploys both a firm-level and a tie-level analysis, exploring the cases of 4 domestic companies and of 2 MNCs active the cluster, according to a cluster-based perspective. The distinction between business-domain knowledge and technical knowledge emerges from the qualitative evidence, further confirmed by quantitative analyses at tie-level. At firm-level, the specialization degree seems to be influencing the kind of knowledge shared, while at tie-level both the frequency of interaction and the governance mode prove to determine differences in the distribution of knowledge flows. The second paper zooms out and considers the inter-firm networks; particularly focusing on the role of cluster boundary, internal and external networks are analyzed, in their size, long-term orientation and exploration degree. The research method is purely qualitative and allows for the observation of the evolving strategic role of internal network: from exploitation-based to exploration-based. Moreover, a causal pattern is emphasized, linking the evolution and features of the external network to the evolution and features of internal network. The final paper addresses the softer and more micro-level side of knowledge flows: personnel mobility. A social capital perspective is here developed, which considers both employees’ acquisition and employees’ loss as building inter-firm ties, thus enhancing company’s overall social capital. Negative binomial regression analyses at dyad-level test the significant impact of cluster affiliation (cluster firms vs non-cluster firms), industry affiliation (IT firms vs non-IT fims) and foreign affiliation (MNCs vs domestic firms) in shaping the uneven distribution of personnel mobility, and thus of knowledge flows, among companies.

Bio-physical interactions and feedbacks in a global climate model

This PhD thesis addresses the topic of large-scale interactions between climate and marine biogeochemistry. To this end, centennial simulations are performed under present and projected future climate conditions with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model containing a complex marine biogeochemistry model. The role of marine biogeochemistry in the climate system is first investigated. Phytoplankton solar radiation absorption in the upper ocean enhances sea surface temperatures and upper ocean stratification. The associated increase in ocean latent heat losses raises atmospheric temperatures and water vapor. Atmospheric circulation is modified at tropical and extratropical latitudes with impacts on precipitation, incoming solar radiation, and ocean circulation which cause upper-ocean heat content to decrease at tropical latitudes and to increase at middle latitudes. Marine biogeochemistry is tightly related to physical climate variability, which may vary in response to internal natural dynamics or to external forcing such as anthropogenic carbon emissions. Wind changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of climate variability in the North Atlantic, affect ocean properties by means of momentum, heat, and freshwater fluxes. Changes in upper ocean temperature and mixing impact the spatial structure and seasonality of North Atlantic phytoplankton through light and nutrient limitations. These changes affect the capability of the North Atlantic Ocean of absorbing atmospheric CO2 and of fixing it inside sinking particulate organic matter. Low-frequency NAO phases determine a delayed response of ocean circulation, temperature and salinity, which in turn affects stratification and marine biogeochemistry. In 20th and 21st century simulations natural wind fluctuations in the North Pacific, related to the two dominant modes of atmospheric variability, affect the spatial structure and the magnitude of the phytoplankton spring bloom through changes in upper-ocean temperature and mixing. The impacts of human-induced emissions in the 21st century are generally larger than natural climate fluctuations, with the phytoplankton spring bloom starting one month earlier than in the 20th century and with ~50% lower magnitude. This PhD thesis advances the knowledge of bio-physical interactions within the global climate, highlighting the intrinsic coupling between physical climate and biosphere, and providing a framework on which future studies of Earth System change can be built on.

Development Aid to Water Management in Mali: The Actors, ‘Global’ Paradigms, and ‘Local’ Translations

Development aid involves a complex network of numerous and extremely heterogeneous actors. Nevertheless, all actors seem to speak the same ‘development jargon’ and to display a congruence that extends from the donor over the professional consultant to the village chief. And although the ideas about what counts as ‘good’ and ‘bad’ aid have constantly changed over time —with new paradigms and policies sprouting every few years— the apparent congruence between actors more or less remains unchanged. How can this be explained? Is it a strategy of all actors to get into the pocket of the donor, or are the social dynamics in development aid more complex? When a new development paradigm appears, where does it come from and how does it gain support? Is this support really homogeneous? To answer the questions, a multi-sited ethnography was conducted in the sector of water-related development aid, with a focus on 3 paradigms that are currently hegemonic in this sector: Integrated Water Resources Management, Capacity Building, and Adaptation to Climate Change. The sites of inquiry were: the headquarters of a multilateral organization, the headquarters of a development NGO, and the Inner Niger Delta in Mali. The research shows that paradigm shifts do not happen overnight but that new paradigms have long lines of descent. Moreover, they require a lot of work from actors in order to become hegemonic; the actors need to create a tight network of support. Each actor, however, interprets the paradigms in a slightly different way, depending on the position in the network. They implant their own interests in their interpretation of the paradigm (the actors ‘translate’ their interests), regardless of whether they constitute the donor, a mediator, or the aid recipient. These translations are necessary to cement and reproduce the network.

Fellow travelers: an ethnographic study of the dynamics of inter-organizational collaboration

The research is a 13-months ethnographic field work on the early operations of a Multi-party alliance active in the global field of indoor positioning. The study aims to understand and investigate empirically the challenges that at the individual and group level influence the organizing principle guiding the alliance operations and evolution. Its contribution rests on the dynamics affecting ecosystems of innovation and collaborative spaces of value co-creation in inter-organizational projects.

Symbolic Dynamics Analysis: a new methodology for foetal heart rate variability analysis

Cardiotocography (CTG) is a widespread foetal diagnostic methods. However, it lacks of objectivity and reproducibility since its dependence on observer's expertise. To overcome these limitations, more objective methods for CTG interpretation have been proposed. In particular, many developed techniques aim to assess the foetal heart rate variability (FHRV). Among them, some methodologies from nonlinear systems theory have been applied to the study of FHRV. All the techniques have proved to be helpful in specific cases. Nevertheless, none of them is more reliable than the others. Therefore, an in-depth study is necessary. The aim of this work is to deepen the FHRV analysis through the Symbolic Dynamics Analysis (SDA), a nonlinear technique already successfully employed for HRV analysis. Thanks to its simplicity of interpretation, it could be a useful tool for clinicians. We performed a literature study involving about 200 references on HRV and FHRV analysis; approximately 100 works were focused on non-linear techniques. Then, in order to compare linear and non-linear methods, we carried out a multiparametric study. 580 antepartum recordings of healthy fetuses were examined. Signals were processed using an updated software for CTG analysis and a new developed software for generating simulated CTG traces. Finally, statistical tests and regression analyses were carried out for estimating relationships among extracted indexes and other clinical information. Results confirm that none of the employed techniques is more reliable than the others. Moreover, in agreement with the literature, each analysis should take into account two relevant parameters, the foetal status and the week of gestation. Regarding the SDA, results show its promising capabilities in FHRV analysis. It allows recognizing foetal status, gestation week and global variability of FHR signals, even better than other methods. Nevertheless, further studies, which should involve even pathological cases, are necessary to establish its reliability.

Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

Towards a broader understanding of the effects of tidal forcing on the global ocean circulation

The study of tides and their interactions with the complex dynamics of the global ocean represents a crucial challenge in ocean modelling. This thesis aims to deepen this study from a dynamical point of view, analysing what are the tidal effects on the general circulation of the ocean. We perform different experiments of a mesoscale-permitting global ocean model forced by both atmospheric fields and astronomical tidal potential, and we implement two parametrizations to include in the model tidal phenomena that are currently unresolved, with particular emphasis to the topographic wave drag for locally dissipating internal waves. An additional experiment using a mesoscale-resolving configuration is used to compare the simulated tides at different resolutions with observed data. We find that the accuracy of modelled tides strongly depends on the region and harmonic component of interest, even though the increased resolution allows to improve the modelled topography and resolve more intense internal waves. We then focus on the impact of tides in the Atlantic Ocean and find that tides weaken the overturning circulation during the analysed period from 1981 to 2007, even though the interannual differences strongly change in both amplitude and phase. The zonally integrated momentum balance shows that tide changes the water stratification at the zonal boundaries, modifying the pressure and therefore the geostrophic balance over the entire basin. Finally, we describe the overturning circulation in the Mediterranean Sea computing the meridional and zonal streamfunctions both in the Eulerian and residual frameworks. The circulation is characterised by different cells, and their forcing processes are described with particular emphasis to the role of mesoscale and a transient climatic event. We complete the description of the overturning circulation giving evidence for the first time to the connection between meridional and zonal cells.

Wind loading predictions using computational fluid dynamics

Using Computational Wind Engineering, CWE, for solving wind-related problems is still a challenging task today, mainly due to the high computational cost required to obtain trustworthy simulations. In particular, the Large Eddy Simulation, LES, has been widely used for evaluating wind loads on buildings. The present thesis assesses the capability of LES as a design tool for wind loading predictions through three cases. The first case is using LES for simulating the wind field around a ground-mounted rectangular prism in Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) flow. The numerical results are validated with experimental results for seven wind attack angles, giving a global understanding of the model performance. The case with the worst model behaviour is investigated, including the spatial distribution of the pressure coefficients and their discrepancies with respect to experimental results. The effects of some numerical parameters are investigated for this case to understand their effectiveness in modifying the obtained numerical results. The second case is using LES for investigating the wind effects on a real high-rise building, aiming at validating the performance of LES as a design tool in practical applications. The numerical results are validated with the experimental results in terms of the distribution of the pressure statistics and the global forces. The mesh sensitivity and the computational cost are discussed. The third case is using LES for studying the wind effects on the new large-span roof over the Bologna stadium. The dynamic responses are analyzed and design envelopes for the structure are obtained. Although it is a numerical simulation before the traditional wind tunnel tests, i.e. the validation of the numerical results are not performed, the preliminary evaluations can effectively inform later investigations and provide the final design processes with deeper confidence regarding the absence of potentially unexpected behaviours.

Advanced representation of the ocean/sea ice dynamics at high latitudes

Sea ice is a fundamental element of global climate system, with numerous impacts on the polar environment. The ongoing drastic changes in the Earth’s sea ice cover highlight the necessity of monitoring the polar regions and systematically evaluating the quality of different numerical products. The main objective of this thesis is to improve our knowledge of the representation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice using comprehensive global ocean reanalyses and coupled climate models. The dissertation will explore (i) the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) and pack ice area in the ensemble mean of four global ocean reanalyses called GREP; (ii) historical representation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice state in HighResMIP models; (iii) the future evolution of Arctic sea ice in HighResMIP models. Global ocean reanalyses and GREP are found to adequately capture interannual and seasonal variability in both pack ice and MIZ areas at hemispheric and regional scales. The advantage of the ensemble-mean approach is proved as GREP smooths the strengths and weaknesses of single systems and provides the most consistent and reliable estimates. This work is intended to encourage the use of GREP in a wide range of applications. The analysis of sea ice representation in the coupled climate models shows no systematic impact of the increased horizontal resolution. We argue that a few minor improvements in sea ice representation with the enhanced horizontal resolution are presumably not worth the major effort of costly computations. The thesis highlights the critical importance to distinguish the MIZ from consolidated pack ice both for investigating changes in sea ice distribution and evaluating the product’s performance. Considering that the MIZ is predicted to dominate the Arctic sea ice cover, the model physics parameterizations and sea ice rheology might require modifications. The results of the work can be useful for modelling community.