Seizure prediction and control in epilepsy

The first part of my thesis presents an overview of the different approaches used in the past two decades in the attempt to forecast epileptic seizure on the basis of intracranial and scalp EEG. Past research could reveal some value of linear and nonlinear algorithms to detect EEG features changing over different phases of the epileptic cycle. However, their exact value for seizure prediction, in terms of sensitivity and specificity, is still discussed and has to be evaluated. In particular, the monitored EEG features may fluctuate with the vigilance state and lead to false alarms. Recently, such a dependency on vigilance states has been reported for some seizure prediction methods, suggesting a reduced reliability. An additional factor limiting application and validation of most seizure-prediction techniques is their computational load. For the first time, the reliability of permutation entropy [PE] was verified in seizure prediction on scalp EEG data, contemporarily controlling for its dependency on different vigilance states. PE was recently introduced as an extremely fast and robust complexity measure for chaotic time series and thus suitable for online application even in portable systems. The capability of PE to distinguish between preictal and interictal state has been demonstrated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. Correlation analysis was used to assess dependency of PE on vigilance states. Scalp EEG-Data from two right temporal epileptic lobe (RTLE) patients and from one patient with right frontal lobe epilepsy were analysed. The last patient was included only in the correlation analysis, since no datasets including seizures have been available for him. The ROC analysis showed a good separability of interictal and preictal phases for both RTLE patients, suggesting that PE could be sensitive to EEG modifications, not visible on visual inspection, that might occur well in advance respect to the EEG and clinical onset of seizures. However, the simultaneous assessment of the changes in vigilance showed that: a) all seizures occurred in association with the transition of vigilance states; b) PE was sensitive in detecting different vigilance states, independently of seizure occurrences. Due to the limitations of the datasets, these results cannot rule out the capability of PE to detect preictal states. However, the good separability between pre- and interictal phases might depend exclusively on the coincidence of epileptic seizure onset with a transition from a state of low vigilance to a state of increased vigilance. The finding of a dependency of PE on vigilance state is an original finding, not reported in literature, and suggesting the possibility to classify vigilance states by means of PE in an authomatic and objectic way. The second part of my thesis provides the description of a novel behavioral task based on motor imagery skills, firstly introduced (Bruzzo et al. 2007), in order to study mental simulation of biological and non-biological movement in paranoid schizophrenics (PS). Immediately after the presentation of a real movement, participants had to imagine or re-enact the very same movement. By key release and key press respectively, participants had to indicate when they started and ended the mental simulation or the re-enactment, making it feasible to measure the duration of the simulated or re-enacted movements. The proportional error between duration of the re-enacted/simulated movement and the template movement were compared between different conditions, as well as between PS and healthy subjects. Results revealed a double dissociation between the mechanisms of mental simulation involved in biological and non-biologial movement simulation. While for PS were found large errors for simulation of biological movements, while being more acurate than healthy subjects during simulation of non-biological movements. Healthy subjects showed the opposite relationship, making errors during simulation of non-biological movements, but being most accurate during simulation of non-biological movements. However, the good timing precision during re-enactment of the movements in all conditions and in both groups of participants suggests that perception, memory and attention, as well as motor control processes were not affected. Based upon a long history of literature reporting the existence of psychotic episodes in epileptic patients, a longitudinal study, using a slightly modified behavioral paradigm, was carried out with two RTLE patients, one patient with idiopathic generalized epilepsy and one patient with extratemporal lobe epilepsy. Results provide strong evidence for a possibility to predict upcoming seizures in RTLE patients behaviorally. In the last part of the thesis it has been validated a behavioural strategy based on neurobiofeedback training, to voluntarily control seizures and to reduce there frequency. Three epileptic patients were included in this study. The biofeedback was based on monitoring of slow cortical potentials (SCPs) extracted online from scalp EEG. Patients were trained to produce positive shifts of SCPs. After a training phase patients were monitored for 6 months in order to validate the ability of the learned strategy to reduce seizure frequency. Two of the three refractory epileptic patients recruited for this study showed improvements in self-management and reduction of ictal episodes, even six months after the last training session.

Neural network modelling of the wave-structure interaction processes

This thesis presents a new Artificial Neural Network (ANN) able to predict at once the main parameters representative of the wave-structure interaction processes, i.e. the wave overtopping discharge, the wave transmission coefficient and the wave reflection coefficient. The new ANN has been specifically developed in order to provide managers and scientists with a tool that can be efficiently used for design purposes. The development of this ANN started with the preparation of a new extended and homogeneous database that collects all the available tests reporting at least one of the three parameters, for a total amount of 16’165 data. The variety of structure types and wave attack conditions in the database includes smooth, rock and armour unit slopes, berm breakwaters, vertical walls, low crested structures, oblique wave attacks. Some of the existing ANNs were compared and improved, leading to the selection of a final ANN, whose architecture was optimized through an in-depth sensitivity analysis to the training parameters of the ANN. Each of the selected 15 input parameters represents a physical aspect of the wave-structure interaction process, describing the wave attack (wave steepness and obliquity, breaking and shoaling factors), the structure geometry (submergence, straight or non-straight slope, with or without berm or toe, presence or not of a crown wall), or the structure type (smooth or covered by an armour layer, with permeable or impermeable core). The advanced ANN here proposed provides accurate predictions for all the three parameters, and demonstrates to overcome the limits imposed by the traditional formulae and approach adopted so far by some of the existing ANNs. The possibility to adopt just one model to obtain a handy and accurate evaluation of the overall performance of a coastal or harbor structure represents the most important and exportable result of the work.

GENEOs, compactifications, and graphs

Our objective in this thesis is to study the pseudo-metric and topological structure of the space of group equivariant non-expansive operators (GENEOs). We introduce the notions of compactification of a perception pair, collectionwise surjectivity, and compactification of a space of GENEOs. We obtain some compactification results for perception pairs and the space of GENEOs. We show that when the data spaces are totally bounded and endow the common domains with metric structures, the perception pairs and every collectionwise surjective space of GENEOs can be embedded isometrically into the compact ones through compatible embeddings. An important part of the study of topology of the space of GENEOs is to populate it in a rich manner. We introduce the notion of a generalized permutant and show that this concept too, like that of a permutant, is useful in defining new GENEOs. We define the analogues of some of the aforementioned concepts in a graph theoretic setting, enabling us to use the power of the theory of GENEOs for the study of graphs in an efficient way. We define the notions of a graph perception pair, graph permutant, and a graph GENEO. We develop two models for the theory of graph GENEOs. The first model addresses the case of graphs having weights assigned to their vertices, while the second one addresses weighted on the edges. We prove some new results in the proposed theory of graph GENEOs and exhibit the power of our models by describing their applications to the structural study of simple graphs. We introduce the concept of a graph permutant and show that this concept can be used to define new graph GENEOs between distinct graph perception pairs, thereby enabling us to populate the space of graph GENEOs in a rich manner and shed more light on its structure.

Modello bayesiano per la riduzione dell'incertezza nella previsione delle piene del fiume Reno

Many efforts have been devoting since last years to reduce uncertainty in hydrological modeling predictions. The principal sources of uncertainty are provided by input errors, for inaccurate rainfall prediction, and model errors, given by the approximation with which the water flow processes in the soil and river discharges are described. The aim of the present work is to develop a bayesian model in order to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge predictions for the Reno river. The ’a priori’ distribution function is given by an autoregressive model, while the likelihood function is provided by a linear equation which relates observed values of discharge in the past and hydrological TOPKAPI model predictions obtained by the rainfall predictions of the limited-area model COSMO-LAMI. The ’a posteriori’ estimations are provided throw a H∞ filter, because the statistical properties of estimation errors are not known. In this work a stationary and a dual adaptive filter are implemented and compared. Statistical analysis of estimation errors and the description of three case studies of flood events occurred during the fall seasons from 2003 to 2005 are reported. Results have also revealed that errors can be described as a markovian process only at a first approximation. For the same period, an ensemble of ’a posteriori’ estimations is obtained throw the COSMO-LEPS rainfall predictions, but the spread of this ’a posteriori’ ensemble is not enable to encompass observation variability. This fact is related to the building of the meteorological ensemble, whose spread reaches its maximum after 5 days. In the future the use of a new ensemble, COSMO–SREPS, focused on the first 3 days, could be helpful to enlarge the meteorogical and, consequently, the hydrological variability.

Two fluid numerical model for coastal applications

Wave breaking is an important coastal process, influencing hydro-morphodynamic processes such as turbulence generation and wave energy dissipation, run-up on the beach and overtopping of coastal defence structures. During breaking, waves are complex mixtures of air and water (“white water”) whose properties affect velocity and pressure fields in the vicinity of the free surface and, depending on the breaker characteristics, different mechanisms for air entrainment are usually observed. Several laboratory experiments have been performed to investigate the role of air bubbles in the wave breaking process (Chanson & Cummings, 1994, among others) and in wave loading on vertical wall (Oumeraci et al., 2001; Peregrine et al., 2006, among others), showing that the air phase is not negligible since the turbulent energy dissipation involves air-water mixture. The recent advancement of numerical models has given valuable insights in the knowledge of wave transformation and interaction with coastal structures. Among these models, some solve the RANS equations coupled with a free-surface tracking algorithm and describe velocity, pressure, turbulence and vorticity fields (Lara et al. 2006 a-b, Clementi et al., 2007). The single-phase numerical model, in which the constitutive equations are solved only for the liquid phase, neglects effects induced by air movement and trapped air bubbles in water. Numerical approximations at the free surface may induce errors in predicting breaking point and wave height and moreover, entrapped air bubbles and water splash in air are not properly represented. The aim of the present thesis is to develop a new two-phase model called COBRAS2 (stands for Cornell Breaking waves And Structures 2 phases), that is the enhancement of the single-phase code COBRAS0, originally developed at Cornell University (Lin & Liu, 1998). In the first part of the work, both fluids are considered as incompressible, while the second part will treat air compressibility modelling. The mathematical formulation and the numerical resolution of the governing equations of COBRAS2 are derived and some model-experiment comparisons are shown. In particular, validation tests are performed in order to prove model stability and accuracy. The simulation of the rising of a large air bubble in an otherwise quiescent water pool reveals the model capability to reproduce the process physics in a realistic way. Analytical solutions for stationary and internal waves are compared with corresponding numerical results, in order to test processes involving wide range of density difference. Waves induced by dam-break in different scenarios (on dry and wet beds, as well as on a ramp) are studied, focusing on the role of air as the medium in which the water wave propagates and on the numerical representation of bubble dynamics. Simulations of solitary and regular waves, characterized by both spilling and plunging breakers, are analyzed with comparisons with experimental data and other numerical model in order to investigate air influence on wave breaking mechanisms and underline model capability and accuracy. Finally, modelling of air compressibility is included in the new developed model and is validated, revealing an accurate reproduction of processes. Some preliminary tests on wave impact on vertical walls are performed: since air flow modelling allows to have a more realistic reproduction of breaking wave propagation, the dependence of wave breaker shapes and aeration characteristics on impact pressure values is studied and, on the basis of a qualitative comparison with experimental observations, the numerical simulations achieve good results.

Variabilità spaziale dei parametri di modelli afflussi-deflussi

L’invarianza spaziale dei parametri di un modello afflussi-deflussi può rivelarsi una soluzione pratica e valida nel caso si voglia stimare la disponibilità di risorsa idrica di un’area. La simulazione idrologica è infatti uno strumento molto adottato ma presenta alcune criticità legate soprattutto alla necessità di calibrare i parametri del modello. Se si opta per l’applicazione di modelli spazialmente distribuiti, utili perché in grado di rendere conto della variabilità spaziale dei fenomeni che concorrono alla formazione di deflusso, il problema è solitamente legato all’alto numero di parametri in gioco. Assumendo che alcuni di questi siano omogenei nello spazio, dunque presentino lo stesso valore sui diversi bacini, è possibile ridurre il numero complessivo dei parametri che necessitano della calibrazione. Si verifica su base statistica questa assunzione, ricorrendo alla stima dell’incertezza parametrica valutata per mezzo di un algoritmo MCMC. Si nota che le distribuzioni dei parametri risultano in diversa misura compatibili sui bacini considerati. Quando poi l’obiettivo è la stima della disponibilità di risorsa idrica di bacini non strumentati, l’ipotesi di invarianza dei parametri assume ancora più importanza; solitamente infatti si affronta questo problema ricorrendo a lunghe analisi di regionalizzazione dei parametri. In questa sede invece si propone una procedura di cross-calibrazione che viene realizzata adottando le informazioni provenienti dai bacini strumentati più simili al sito di interesse. Si vuole raggiungere cioè un giusto compromesso tra lo svantaggio derivante dall’assumere i parametri del modello costanti sui bacini strumentati e il beneficio legato all’introduzione, passo dopo passo, di nuove e importanti informazioni derivanti dai bacini strumentati coinvolti nell’analisi. I risultati dimostrano l’utilità della metodologia proposta; si vede infatti che, in fase di validazione sul bacino considerato non strumentato, è possibile raggiungere un buona concordanza tra le serie di portata simulate e osservate.

Prematurità: Interazioni Precoci e Sintomatologia Materna

La prematurità rappresenta un fattore di rischio per la qualità delle interazioni precoci e la sintomatologia materna, soprattutto in caso di nascita VLBW (peso ≤ 1500 grammi) ed ELBW (≤1000 grammi). Scopo dello studio è valutare a 3 e 9 mesi di età corretta le modalità interattive delle diadi madre-bambino e lo stato affettivo materno in due campioni di prematuri, ELBW e VLBW, confrontandoli con un gruppo di bambini nati a termine (GC). Un campione di 119 diadi madre-bambino, di cui 71 nati prematuri (30 VLBW e 21 ELBW) e 68 a termine, sono stati valutati all'età di 3 e 9 mesi. Durante gli assessment, è avvenuta la videoregistrazione dell’interazione madre-bambino, codificata mediante le Global Rating Scales (a 3 mesi) ed il CARE Index Infant (a 9 mesi), e la valutazione della sintomatologia materna, attraverso Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, Penn State Worry Questionnaire, Social Interaction and Anxiety Scale, Social Phobia Scale, Parenting Stress Index-Short Form, Questionari italiani del Temperamento. A 3 mesi, le madri di ELBW appaiono più demanding e meno sensibili rispetto a quelle di VLBW; più intrusive rispetto a quelle di GC. Tali madri, inoltre, sono significativamente meno sensibili di quelle del GC anche a 9 mesi. In entrambi gli assessment, tali madri presentano livelli significativamente maggiori di depressione, ansia generalizzata e stress, rispetto a quelle di entrambi gli altri gruppi. Non emergono differenze rispetto all'ansia sociale nè alla percezione del temperamento. Le analisi della correlazione hanno evidenziato specifiche relazioni tra la sintomatologia materna e i pattern interattivi nei tre gruppi. La nascita pretermine rappresenta un fattore di rischio solo per le madri di ELBW, che presentano difficoltà interattive ed elevata sintomatologia; quelle dei VLBW, infatti, tendono a presentare pattern interattivi affini a quelle del GC, mostrando adeguata sensibilità e bassi livelli di depressione, ansia e stress.

Detailed study of the seismotectonic setting in the Lucanian Apennines and surrounding areas (Southern Italy)

In this research work I analyzed the instrumental seismicity of Southern Italy in the area including the Lucanian Apennines and Bradano foredeep, making use of the most recent seismological database available so far. I examined the seismicity occurred during the period between 2001 and 2006, considering 514 events with magnitudes M ≥ 2.0. In the first part of the work, P- and S-wave arrival times, recorded by the Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC) operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), were re-picked along with those of the SAPTEX temporary array (2001–2004). For some events located in the Upper Val d'Agri, I also used data from the Eni-Agip oil company seismic network. I computed the VP/VS ratio obtaining a value of 1.83 and I carried out an analysis for the one-dimensional (1D) velocity model that approximates the seismic structure of the study area. After this preliminary analysis, making use of the records obtained in the SeSCAL experiment, I incremented the database by handpicking new arrival times. My final dataset consists of 15,666 P- and 9228 S-arrival times associated to 1047 earthquakes with magnitude ML ≥ 1.5. I computed 162 fault-plane solutions and composite focal mechanisms for closely located events. I investigated stress field orientation inverting focal mechanism belonging to the Lucanian Apennine and the Pollino Range, both areas characterized by more concentrated background seismicity. Moreover, I applied the double difference technique (DD) to improve the earthquake locations. Considering these results and different datasets available in the literature, I carried out a detailed analysis of single sub-areas and of a swarm (November 2008) recorded by SeSCAL array. The relocated seismicity appears more concentrated within the upper crust and it is mostly clustered along the Lucanian Apennine chain. In particular, two well-defined clusters were located in the Potentino and in the Abriola-Pietrapertosa sector (central Lucanian region). Their hypocentral depths are slightly deeper than those observed beneath the chain. I suggest that these two seismic features are representative of the transition from the inner portion of the chain with NE-SW extension to the external margin characterized by dextral strike-slip kinematics. In the easternmost part of the study area, below the Bradano foredeep and the Apulia foreland, the seismicity is generally deeper and more scattered and is associated to the Murge uplift and to the small structures present in the area. I also observed a small structure NE-SW oriented in the Abriola-Pietrapertosa area (activated with a swarm in November 2008) that could be considered to act as a barrier to the propagation of a potential rupture of an active NW-SE striking faults system. Focal mechanisms computed in this study are in large part normal and strike-slip solutions and their tensional axes (T-axes) have a generalized NE-SW orientation. Thanks to denser coverage of seismic stations and the detailed analysis, this study is a further contribution to the comprehension of the seismogenesis and state of stress of the Southern Apennines region, giving important contributions to seismotectonic zoning and seismic hazard assessment.

Spectral-Element and Adjoint 3D Full-Wave Tomography for the Lithosphere of Central Italy

The primary objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the 3D velocity structure of the lithosphere in central Italy. To this end, I adopted the Spectral-Element Method to perform accurate numerical simulations of the complex wavefields generated by the 2009 Mw 6.3 L’Aquila event and by its foreshocks and aftershocks together with some additional events within our target region. For the mainshock, the source was represented by a finite fault and different models for central Italy, both 1D and 3D, were tested. Surface topography, attenuation and Moho discontinuity were also accounted for. Three-component synthetic waveforms were compared to the corresponding recorded data. The results of these analyses show that 3D models, including all the known structural heterogeneities in the region, are essential to accurately reproduce waveform propagation. They allow to capture features of the seismograms, mainly related to topography or to low wavespeed areas, and, combined with a finite fault model, result into a favorable match between data and synthetics for frequencies up to ~0.5 Hz. We also obtained peak ground velocity maps, that provide valuable information for seismic hazard assessment. The remaining differences between data and synthetics led us to take advantage of SEM combined with an adjoint method to iteratively improve the available 3D structure model for central Italy. A total of 63 events and 52 stations in the region were considered. We performed five iterations of the tomographic inversion, by calculating the misfit function gradient - necessary for the model update - from adjoint sensitivity kernels, constructed using only two simulations for each event. Our last updated model features a reduced traveltime misfit function and improved agreement between data and synthetics, although further iterations, as well as refined source solutions, are necessary to obtain a new reference 3D model for central Italy tomography.

Static analysis of functionally graded cylindrical and conical shells or panels using the generalized unconstrained third order theory coupled with the stress recovery

A 2D Unconstrained Third Order Shear Deformation Theory (UTSDT) is presented for the evaluation of tangential and normal stresses in moderately thick functionally graded conical and cylindrical shells subjected to mechanical loadings. Several types of graded materials are investigated. The functionally graded material consists of ceramic and metallic constituents. A four parameter power law function is used. The UTSDT allows the presence of a finite transverse shear stress at the top and bottom surfaces of the graded shell. In addition, the initial curvature effect included in the formulation leads to the generalization of the present theory (GUTSDT). The Generalized Differential Quadrature (GDQ) method is used to discretize the derivatives in the governing equations, the external boundary conditions and the compatibility conditions. Transverse and normal stresses are also calculated by integrating the three dimensional equations of equilibrium in the thickness direction. In this way, the six components of the stress tensor at a point of the conical or cylindrical shell or panel can be given. The initial curvature effect and the role of the power law functions are shown for a wide range of functionally conical and cylindrical shells under various loading and boundary conditions. Finally, numerical examples of the available literature are worked out.

Analysis and mathematical modeling of wave-structure interaction

The aim of this thesis, included within the THESEUS project, is the development of a mathematical model 2DV two-phase, based on the existing code IH-2VOF developed by the University of Cantabria, able to represent together the overtopping phenomenon and the sediment transport. Several numerical simulations were carried out in order to analyze the flow characteristics on a dike crest. The results show that the seaward/landward slope does not affect the evolution of the flow depth and velocity over the dike crest whereas the most important parameter is the relative submergence. Wave heights decrease and flow velocities increase while waves travel over the crest. In particular, by increasing the submergence, the wave height decay and the increase of the velocity are less marked. Besides, an appropriate curve able to fit the variation of the wave height/velocity over the dike crest were found. Both for the wave height and for the wave velocity different fitting coefficients were determined on the basis of the submergence and of the significant wave height. An equation describing the trend of the dimensionless coefficient c_h for the wave height was derived. These conclusions could be taken into consideration for the design criteria and the upgrade of the structures. In the second part of the thesis, new equations for the representation of the sediment transport in the IH-2VOF model were introduced in order to represent beach erosion while waves run-up and overtop the sea banks during storms. The new model allows to calculate sediment fluxes in the water column together with the sediment concentration. Moreover it is possible to model the bed profile evolution. Different tests were performed under low-intensity regular waves with an homogeneous layer of sand on the bottom of a channel in order to analyze the erosion-deposition patterns and verify the model results.

Modelling and analysis of thin-walled beams in the context of the Generalized Beam Theory

In this work, the Generalized Beam Theory (GBT) is used as the main tool to analyze the mechanics of thin-walled beams. After an introduction to the subject and a quick review of some of the most well-known approaches to describe the behaviour of thin-walled beams, a novel formulation of the GBT is presented. This formulation contains the classic shear-deformable GBT available in the literature and contributes an additional description of cross-section warping that is variable along the wall thickness besides along the wall midline. Shear deformation is introduced in such a way that the classical shear strain components of the Timoshenko beam theory are recovered exactly. According to the new kinematics proposed, a reviewed form of the cross-section analysis procedure is devised, based on a unique modal decomposition. Later, a procedure for a posteriori reconstruction of all the three-dimensional stress components in the finite element analysis of thin-walled beams using the GBT is presented. The reconstruction is simple and based on the use of three-dimensional equilibrium equations and of the RCP procedure. Finally, once the stress reconstruction procedure is presented, a study of several existing issues on the constitutive relations in the GBT is carried out. Specifically, a constitutive law based on mirroring the kinematic constraints of the GBT model into a specific stress field assumption is proposed. It is shown that this method is equally valid for isotropic and orthotropic beams and coincides with the conventional GBT approach available in the literature. Later on, an analogous procedure is presented for the case of laminated beams. Lastly, as a way to improve an inherently poor description of shear deformability in the GBT, the introduction of shear correction factors is proposed. Throughout this work, numerous examples are provided to determine the validity of all the proposed contributions to the field.