Investigation on the Navigation Anomaly of Pioneer 10 and 11 probes

The present work consists of the investigation of the navigation of Pioneer 10 and 11 probes becoming known as the “Pioneer Anomaly”: the trajectories followed by the spacecrafts did not match the ones retrieved with standard navigation software. Mismatching appeared as a linear drift in the Doppler data received by the spacecrafts, which has been ascribed to a constant sunward acceleration of about 8.5×10-10 m/s2. The study presented hereafter tries to find a convincing explanation to this discrepancy. The research is based on the analysis of Doppler tracking data through the ODP (Orbit Determination Program), developed by NASA/JPL. The method can be summarized as: seek for any kind of physics affecting the dynamics of the spacecraft or the propagation of radiometric data, which may have not been properly taken into account previously, and check whether or not these might rule out the anomaly. A major effort has been put to build a thermal model of the spacecrafts for predicting the force due to anisotropic thermal radiation, since this is a model not natively included in the ODP. Tracking data encompassing more than twenty years of Pioneer 10 interplanetary cruise, plus twelve years of Pioneer 11 have been analyzed in light of the results of the thermal model. Different strategies of orbit determination have been implemented, including single arc, multi arc and stochastic filters, and their performance compared. Orbital solutions have been obtained without the needing of any acceleration other than the thermal recoil one indicating it as the responsible for the observed linear drift in the Doppler residuals. As a further support to this we checked that inclusion of additional constant acceleration as does not improve the quality of orbital solutions. All the tests performed lead to the conclusion that no anomalous acceleration is acting on Pioneers spacecrafts.

An Integrated Transmission-Media Noise Calibration Software For Deep-Space Radio Science Experiments

The thesis describes the implementation of a calibration, format-translation and data conditioning software for radiometric tracking data of deep-space spacecraft. All of the available propagation-media noise rejection techniques available as features in the code are covered in their mathematical formulations, performance and software implementations. Some techniques are retrieved from literature and current state of the art, while other algorithms have been conceived ex novo. All of the three typical deep-space refractive environments (solar plasma, ionosphere, troposphere) are dealt with by employing specific subroutines. Specific attention has been reserved to the GNSS-based tropospheric path delay calibration subroutine, since it is the most bulky module of the software suite, in terms of both the sheer number of lines of code, and development time. The software is currently in its final stage of development and once completed will serve as a pre-processing stage for orbit determination codes. Calibration of transmission-media noise sources in radiometric observables proved to be an essential operation to be performed of radiometric data in order to meet the more and more demanding error budget requirements of modern deep-space missions. A completely autonomous and all-around propagation-media calibration software is a novelty in orbit determination, although standalone codes are currently employed by ESA and NASA. The described S/W is planned to be compatible with the current standards for tropospheric noise calibration used by both these agencies like the AMC, TSAC and ESA IFMS weather data, and it natively works with the Tracking Data Message file format (TDM) adopted by CCSDS as standard aimed to promote and simplify inter-agency collaboration.

Troposphere Calibration Techniques for Deep Space Probe Tracking

Ground-based Earth troposphere calibration systems play an important role in planetary exploration, especially to carry out radio science experiments aimed at the estimation of planetary gravity fields. In these experiments, the main observable is the spacecraft (S/C) range rate, measured from the Doppler shift of an electromagnetic wave transmitted from ground, received by the spacecraft and coherently retransmitted back to ground. If the solar corona and interplanetary plasma noise is already removed from Doppler data, the Earth troposphere remains one of the main error sources in tracking observables. Current Earth media calibration systems at NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN) stations are based upon a combination of weather data and multidirectional, dual frequency GPS measurements acquired at each station complex. In order to support Cassini’s cruise radio science experiments, a new generation of media calibration systems were developed, driven by the need to achieve the goal of an end-to-end Allan deviation of the radio link in the order of 3×〖10〗^(-15) at 1000 s integration time. The future ESA’s Bepi Colombo mission to Mercury carries scientific instrumentation for radio science experiments (a Ka-band transponder and a three-axis accelerometer) which, in combination with the S/C telecommunication system (a X/X/Ka transponder) will provide the most advanced tracking system ever flown on an interplanetary probe. Current error budget for MORE (Mercury Orbiter Radioscience Experiment) allows the residual uncalibrated troposphere to contribute with a value of 8×〖10〗^(-15) to the two-way Allan deviation at 1000 s integration time. The current standard ESA/ESTRACK calibration system is based on a combination of surface meteorological measurements and mathematical algorithms, capable to reconstruct the Earth troposphere path delay, leaving an uncalibrated component of about 1-2% of the total delay. In order to satisfy the stringent MORE requirements, the short time-scale variations of the Earth troposphere water vapor content must be calibrated at ESA deep space antennas (DSA) with more precise and stable instruments (microwave radiometers). In parallel to this high performance instruments, ESA ground stations should be upgraded to media calibration systems at least capable to calibrate both troposphere path delay components (dry and wet) at sub-centimetre level, in order to reduce S/C navigation uncertainties. The natural choice is to provide a continuous troposphere calibration by processing GNSS data acquired at each complex by dual frequency receivers already installed for station location purposes. The work presented here outlines the troposphere calibration technique to support both Deep Space probe navigation and radio science experiments. After an introduction to deep space tracking techniques, observables and error sources, in Chapter 2 the troposphere path delay is widely investigated, reporting the estimation techniques and the state of the art of the ESA and NASA troposphere calibrations. Chapter 3 deals with an analysis of the status and the performances of the NASA Advanced Media Calibration (AMC) system referred to the Cassini data analysis. Chapter 4 describes the current release of a developed GNSS software (S/W) to estimate the troposphere calibration to be used for ESA S/C navigation purposes. During the development phase of the S/W a test campaign has been undertaken in order to evaluate the S/W performances. A description of the campaign and the main results are reported in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 presents a preliminary analysis of microwave radiometers to be used to support radio science experiments. The analysis has been carried out considering radiometric measurements of the ESA/ESTEC instruments installed in Cabauw (NL) and compared with the requirements of MORE. Finally, Chapter 7 summarizes the results obtained and defines some key technical aspects to be evaluated and taken into account for the development phase of future instrumentation.

A novel map-matching procedure for low-sampling GPS data with applications to traffic flow analysis

An extensive sample (2%) of private vehicles in Italy are equipped with a GPS device that periodically measures their position and dynamical state for insurance purposes. Having access to this type of data allows to develop theoretical and practical applications of great interest: the real-time reconstruction of traffic state in a certain region, the development of accurate models of vehicle dynamics, the study of the cognitive dynamics of drivers. In order for these applications to be possible, we first need to develop the ability to reconstruct the paths taken by vehicles on the road network from the raw GPS data. In fact, these data are affected by positioning errors and they are often very distanced from each other (~2 Km). For these reasons, the task of path identification is not straightforward. This thesis describes the approach we followed to reliably identify vehicle paths from this kind of low-sampling data. The problem of matching data with roads is solved with a bayesian approach of maximum likelihood. While the identification of the path taken between two consecutive GPS measures is performed with a specifically developed optimal routing algorithm, based on A* algorithm. The procedure was applied on an off-line urban data sample and proved to be robust and accurate. Future developments will extend the procedure to real-time execution and nation-wide coverage.

Kinematics of the Sicily and Calabria Subduction System from Elastic Block Modeling of GPS Data

We use data from about 700 GPS stations in the EuroMediterranen region to investigate the present-day behavior of the the Calabrian subduction zone within the Mediterranean-scale plates kinematics and to perform local scale studies about the strain accumulation on active structures. We focus attenction on the Messina Straits and Crati Valley faults where GPS data show extentional velocity gradients of ∼3 mm/yr and ∼2 mm/yr, respectively. We use dislocation model and a non-linear constrained optimization algorithm to invert for fault geometric parameters and slip-rates and evaluate the associated uncertainties adopting a bootstrap approach. Our analysis suggest the presence of two partially locked normal faults. To investigate the impact of elastic strain contributes from other nearby active faults onto the observed velocity gradient we use a block modeling approach. Our models show that the inferred slip-rates on the two analyzed structures are strongly impacted by the assumed locking width of the Calabrian subduction thrust. In order to frame the observed local deformation features within the present- day central Mediterranean kinematics we realyze a statistical analysis testing the indipendent motion (w.r.t. the African and Eurasias plates) of the Adriatic, Cal- abrian and Sicilian blocks. Our preferred model confirms a microplate like behaviour for all the investigated blocks. Within these kinematic boundary conditions we fur- ther investigate the Calabrian Slab interface geometry using a combined approach of block modeling and χ2ν statistic. Almost no information is obtained using only the horizontal GPS velocities that prove to be a not sufficient dataset for a multi-parametric inversion approach. Trying to stronger constrain the slab geometry we estimate the predicted vertical velocities performing suites of forward models of elastic dislocations varying the fault locking depth. Comparison with the observed field suggest a maximum resolved locking depth of 25 km.

Estimating crustal deformation from geodetic data

By the end of the 19th century, geodesy has contributed greatly to the knowledge of regional tectonics and fault movement through its ability to measure, at sub-centimetre precision, the relative positions of points on the Earth’s surface. Nowadays the systematic analysis of geodetic measurements in active deformation regions represents therefore one of the most important tool in the study of crustal deformation over different temporal scales [e.g., Dixon, 1991]. This dissertation focuses on motion that can be observed geodetically with classical terrestrial position measurements, particularly triangulation and leveling observations. The work is divided into two sections: an overview of the principal methods for estimating longterm accumulation of elastic strain from terrestrial observations, and an overview of the principal methods for rigorously inverting surface coseismic deformation fields for source geometry with tests on synthetic deformation data sets and applications in two different tectonically active regions of the Italian peninsula. For the long-term accumulation of elastic strain analysis, triangulation data were available from a geodetic network across the Messina Straits area (southern Italy) for the period 1971 – 2004. From resulting angle changes, the shear strain rates as well as the orientation of the principal axes of the strain rate tensor were estimated. The computed average annual shear strain rates for the time period between 1971 and 2004 are γ˙1 = 113.89 ± 54.96 nanostrain/yr and γ˙2 = -23.38 ± 48.71 nanostrain/yr, with the orientation of the most extensional strain (θ) at N140.80° ± 19.55°E. These results suggests that the first-order strain field of the area is dominated by extension in the direction perpendicular to the trend of the Straits, sustaining the hypothesis that the Messina Straits could represents an area of active concentrated deformation. The orientation of θ agree well with GPS deformation estimates, calculated over shorter time interval, and is consistent with previous preliminary GPS estimates [D’Agostino and Selvaggi, 2004; Serpelloni et al., 2005] and is also similar to the direction of the 1908 (MW 7.1) earthquake slip vector [e.g., Boschi et al., 1989; Valensise and Pantosti, 1992; Pino et al., 2000; Amoruso et al., 2002]. Thus, the measured strain rate can be attributed to an active extension across the Messina Straits, corresponding to a relative extension rate ranges between < 1mm/yr and up to ~ 2 mm/yr, within the portion of the Straits covered by the triangulation network. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Messina Straits is an important active geological boundary between the Sicilian and the Calabrian domains and support previous preliminary GPS-based estimates of strain rates across the Straits, which show that the active deformation is distributed along a greater area. Finally, the preliminary dislocation modelling has shown that, although the current geodetic measurements do not resolve the geometry of the dislocation models, they solve well the rate of interseismic strain accumulation across the Messina Straits and give useful information about the locking the depth of the shear zone. Geodetic data, triangulation and leveling measurements of the 1976 Friuli (NE Italy) earthquake, were available for the inversion of coseismic source parameters. From observed angle and elevation changes, the source parameters of the seismic sequence were estimated in a join inversion using an algorithm called “simulated annealing”. The computed optimal uniform–slip elastic dislocation model consists of a 30° north-dipping shallow (depth 1.30 ± 0.75 km) fault plane with azimuth of 273° and accommodating reverse dextral slip of about 1.8 m. The hypocentral location and inferred fault plane of the main event are then consistent with the activation of Periadriatic overthrusts or other related thrust faults as the Gemona- Kobarid thrust. Then, the geodetic data set exclude the source solution of Aoudia et al. [2000], Peruzza et al. [2002] and Poli et al. [2002] that considers the Susans-Tricesimo thrust as the May 6 event. The best-fit source model is then more consistent with the solution of Pondrelli et al. [2001], which proposed the activation of other thrusts located more to the North of the Susans-Tricesimo thrust, probably on Periadriatic related thrust faults. The main characteristics of the leveling and triangulation data are then fit by the optimal single fault model, that is, these results are consistent with a first-order rupture process characterized by a progressive rupture of a single fault system. A single uniform-slip fault model seems to not reproduce some minor complexities of the observations, and some residual signals that are not modelled by the optimal single-fault plane solution, were observed. In fact, the single fault plane model does not reproduce some minor features of the leveling deformation field along the route 36 south of the main uplift peak, that is, a second fault seems to be necessary to reproduce these residual signals. By assuming movements along some mapped thrust located southward of the inferred optimal single-plane solution, the residual signal has been successfully modelled. In summary, the inversion results presented in this Thesis, are consistent with the activation of some Periadriatic related thrust for the main events of the sequence, and with a minor importance of the southward thrust systems of the middle Tagliamento plain.

A dynamical system approach to data assimilation in chaotic models

The Assimilation in the Unstable Subspace (AUS) was introduced by Trevisan and Uboldi in 2004, and developed by Trevisan, Uboldi and Carrassi, to minimize the analysis and forecast errors by exploiting the flow-dependent instabilities of the forecast-analysis cycle system, which may be thought of as a system forced by observations. In the AUS scheme the assimilation is obtained by confining the analysis increment in the unstable subspace of the forecast-analysis cycle system so that it will have the same structure of the dominant instabilities of the system. The unstable subspace is estimated by Breeding on the Data Assimilation System (BDAS). AUS- BDAS has already been tested in realistic models and observational configurations, including a Quasi-Geostrophicmodel and a high dimensional, primitive equation ocean model; the experiments include both fixed and“adaptive”observations. In these contexts, the AUS-BDAS approach greatly reduces the analysis error, with reasonable computational costs for data assimilation with respect, for example, to a prohibitive full Extended Kalman Filter. This is a follow-up study in which we revisit the AUS-BDAS approach in the more basic, highly nonlinear Lorenz 1963 convective model. We run observation system simulation experiments in a perfect model setting, and with two types of model error as well: random and systematic. In the different configurations examined, and in a perfect model setting, AUS once again shows better efficiency than other advanced data assimilation schemes. In the present study, we develop an iterative scheme that leads to a significant improvement of the overall assimilation performance with respect also to standard AUS. In particular, it boosts the efficiency of regime’s changes tracking, with a low computational cost. Other data assimilation schemes need estimates of ad hoc parameters, which have to be tuned for the specific model at hand. In Numerical Weather Prediction models, tuning of parameters — and in particular an estimate of the model error covariance matrix — may turn out to be quite difficult. Our proposed approach, instead, may be easier to implement in operational models.

The rupture process of recent tsunamigenic earthquakes by geophysical data inversion

Subduction zones are the favorite places to generate tsunamigenic earthquakes, where friction between oceanic and continental plates causes the occurrence of a strong seismicity. The topics and the methodologies discussed in this thesis are focussed to the understanding of the rupture process of the seismic sources of great earthquakes that generate tsunamis. The tsunamigenesis is controlled by several kinematical characteristic of the parent earthquake, as the focal mechanism, the depth of the rupture, the slip distribution along the fault area and by the mechanical properties of the source zone. Each of these factors plays a fundamental role in the tsunami generation. Therefore, inferring the source parameters of tsunamigenic earthquakes is crucial to understand the generation of the consequent tsunami and so to mitigate the risk along the coasts. The typical way to proceed when we want to gather information regarding the source process is to have recourse to the inversion of geophysical data that are available. Tsunami data, moreover, are useful to constrain the portion of the fault area that extends offshore, generally close to the trench that, on the contrary, other kinds of data are not able to constrain. In this thesis I have discussed the rupture process of some recent tsunamigenic events, as inferred by means of an inverse method. I have presented the 2003 Tokachi-Oki (Japan) earthquake (Mw 8.1). In this study the slip distribution on the fault has been inferred by inverting tsunami waveform, GPS, and bottom-pressure data. The joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data has revealed a much better constrain for the slip distribution on the fault rather than the separate inversions of single datasets. Then we have studied the earthquake occurred on 2007 in southern Sumatra (Mw 8.4). By inverting several tsunami waveforms, both in the near and in the far field, we have determined the slip distribution and the mean rupture velocity along the causative fault. Since the largest patch of slip was concentrated on the deepest part of the fault, this is the likely reason for the small tsunami waves that followed the earthquake, pointing out how much the depth of the rupture plays a crucial role in controlling the tsunamigenesis. Finally, we have presented a new rupture model for the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.2). We have performed the joint inversion of tsunami waveform, GPS and satellite altimetry data, to infer the slip distribution, the slip direction, and the rupture velocity on the fault. Furthermore, in this work we have presented a novel method to estimate, in a self-consistent way, the average rigidity of the source zone. The estimation of the source zone rigidity is important since it may play a significant role in the tsunami generation and, particularly for slow earthquakes, a low rigidity value is sometimes necessary to explain how a relatively low seismic moment earthquake may generate significant tsunamis; this latter point may be relevant for explaining the mechanics of the tsunami earthquakes, one of the open issues in present day seismology. The investigation of these tsunamigenic earthquakes has underlined the importance to use a joint inversion of different geophysical data to determine the rupture characteristics. The results shown here have important implications for the implementation of new tsunami warning systems – particularly in the near-field – the improvement of the current ones, and furthermore for the planning of the inundation maps for tsunami-hazard assessment along the coastal area.

On-line adaptive visual tracking

Visual tracking is the problem of estimating some variables related to a target given a video sequence depicting the target. Visual tracking is key to the automation of many tasks, such as visual surveillance, robot or vehicle autonomous navigation, automatic video indexing in multimedia databases. Despite many years of research, long term tracking in real world scenarios for generic targets is still unaccomplished. The main contribution of this thesis is the definition of effective algorithms that can foster a general solution to visual tracking by letting the tracker adapt to mutating working conditions. In particular, we propose to adapt two crucial components of visual trackers: the transition model and the appearance model. The less general but widespread case of tracking from a static camera is also considered and a novel change detection algorithm robust to sudden illumination changes is proposed. Based on this, a principled adaptive framework to model the interaction between Bayesian change detection and recursive Bayesian trackers is introduced. Finally, the problem of automatic tracker initialization is considered. In particular, a novel solution for categorization of 3D data is presented. The novel category recognition algorithm is based on a novel 3D descriptors that is shown to achieve state of the art performances in several applications of surface matching.

Inferences on earthquake kinematic properties from data inversion: two different approaches

During my PhD, starting from the original formulations proposed by Bertrand et al., 2000 and Emolo & Zollo 2005, I developed inversion methods and applied then at different earthquakes. In particular large efforts have been devoted to the study of the model resolution and to the estimation of the model parameter errors. To study the source kinematic characteristics of the Christchurch earthquake we performed a joint inversion of strong-motion, GPS and InSAR data using a non-linear inversion method. Considering the complexity highlighted by superficial deformation data, we adopted a fault model consisting of two partially overlapping segments, with dimensions 15x11 and 7x7 km2, having different faulting styles. This two-fault model allows to better reconstruct the complex shape of the superficial deformation data. The total seismic moment resulting from the joint inversion is 3.0x1025 dyne.cm (Mw = 6.2) with an average rupture velocity of 2.0 km/s. Errors associated with the kinematic model have been estimated of around 20-30 %. The 2009 Aquila sequence was characterized by an intense aftershocks sequence that lasted several months. In this study we applied an inversion method that assumes as data the apparent Source Time Functions (aSTFs), to a Mw 4.0 aftershock of the Aquila sequence. The estimation of aSTFs was obtained using the deconvolution method proposed by Vallée et al., 2004. The inversion results show a heterogeneous slip distribution, characterized by two main slip patches located NW of the hypocenter, and a variable rupture velocity distribution (mean value of 2.5 km/s), showing a rupture front acceleration in between the two high slip zones. Errors of about 20% characterize the final estimated parameters.

Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

Development Of New Toolkits For Orbit Determination Codes For Precise Radio Tracking Experiments

This thesis describes the developments of new models and toolkits for the orbit determination codes to support and improve the precise radio tracking experiments of the Cassini-Huygens mission, an interplanetary mission to study the Saturn system. The core of the orbit determination process is the comparison between observed observables and computed observables. Disturbances in either the observed or computed observables degrades the orbit determination process. Chapter 2 describes a detailed study of the numerical errors in the Doppler observables computed by NASA's ODP and MONTE, and ESA's AMFIN. A mathematical model of the numerical noise was developed and successfully validated analyzing against the Doppler observables computed by the ODP and MONTE, with typical relative errors smaller than 10%. The numerical noise proved to be, in general, an important source of noise in the orbit determination process and, in some conditions, it may becomes the dominant noise source. Three different approaches to reduce the numerical noise were proposed. Chapter 3 describes the development of the multiarc library, which allows to perform a multi-arc orbit determination with MONTE. The library was developed during the analysis of the Cassini radio science gravity experiments of the Saturn's satellite Rhea. Chapter 4 presents the estimation of the Rhea's gravity field obtained from a joint multi-arc analysis of Cassini R1 and R4 fly-bys, describing in details the spacecraft dynamical model used, the data selection and calibration procedure, and the analysis method followed. In particular, the approach of estimating the full unconstrained quadrupole gravity field was followed, obtaining a solution statistically not compatible with the condition of hydrostatic equilibrium. The solution proved to be stable and reliable. The normalized moment of inertia is in the range 0.37-0.4 indicating that Rhea's may be almost homogeneous, or at least characterized by a small degree of differentiation.

Kinematic models of interseismic deformation from inversion of GPS and InSAR measurements to estimate fault parameters and coupling degree

We have used kinematic models in two Italian regions to reproduce surface interseismic velocities obtained from InSAR and GPS measurements. We have considered a Block modeling, BM, approach to evaluate which fault system is actively accommodating the occurring deformation in both considered areas. We have performed a study for the Umbria-Marche Apennines, obtaining that the tectonic extension observed by GPS measurements is explained by the active contribution of at least two fault systems, one of which is the Alto Tiberina fault, ATF. We have estimated also the interseismic coupling distribution for the ATF using a 3D surface and the result shows an interesting correlation between the microseismicity and the uncoupled fault portions. The second area analyzed concerns the Gargano promontory for which we have used jointly the available InSAR and GPS velocities. Firstly we have attached the two datasets to the same terrestrial reference frame and then using a simple dislocation approach, we have estimated the best fault parameters reproducing the available data, providing a solution corresponding to the Mattinata fault. Subsequently we have considered within a BM analysis both GPS and InSAR datasets in order to evaluate if the Mattinata fault may accommodate the deformation occurring in the central Adriatic due to the relative motion between the North-Adriatic and South-Adriatic plates. We obtain that the deformation occurring in that region should be accommodated by more that one fault system, that is however difficult to detect since the poor coverage of geodetic measurement offshore of the Gargano promontory. Finally we have performed also the estimate of the interseismic coupling distribution for the Mattinata fault, obtaining a shallow coupling pattern. Both of coupling distributions found using the BM approach have been tested by means of resolution checkerboard tests and they demonstrate that the coupling patterns depend on the geodetic data positions.