SPHERA, a new Italian convection-permitting regional reanalysis: improving heavy-rainfall representation and describing hail-prone environments

Extreme weather events related to deep convection are high-impact critical phenomena whose reliable numerical simulation is still challenging. High-resolution (convection-permitting) modeling setups allow to switch off physical parameterizations accountable for substantial errors in convection representation. A new convection-permitting reanalysis over Italy (SPHERA) has been produced at ARPAE to enhance the representation and understanding of extreme weather situations. SPHERA is obtained through a dynamical downscaling of the global reanalysis ERA5 using the non-hydrostatic model COSMO at 2.2 km grid spacing over 1995-2020. This thesis aims to verify the expectations placed on SPHERA by analyzing two weather phenomena that are particularly challenging to simulate: heavy rainfall and hail. A quantitative statistical analysis over Italy during 2003-2017 for daily and hourly precipitation is presented to compare the performance of SPHERA with its driver ERA5 considering the national network of rain gauges as reference. Furthermore, two extreme precipitation events are deeply investigated. SPHERA shows a quantitative added skill over ERA5 for moderate to severe and rapid accumulations in terms of adherence to the observations, higher detailing of the spatial fields, and more precise temporal matching. These results prompted the use of SPHERA for the investigation of hailstorms, for which the combination of multiple information is crucial to reduce the substantial uncertainties permeating their understanding. A proxy for hail is developed by combining hail-favoring environmental numerical predictors with observations of ESWD hail reports and satellite overshooting top detections. The procedure is applied to the extended summer season (April-October) of 2016-2018 over the whole SPHERA spatial domain. The results indicate maximum hail likelihood over pre-Alpine regions and the northern Adriatic sea around 15 UTC in June-July, in agreement with recent European hail climatologies. The method demonstrates enhanced performance in case of severe hail occurrences and the ability to separate between ambient signatures depending on hail severity.

Interconnection systems for highly integrated computation devices

The sustained demand for faster,more powerful chips has beenmet by the availability of chip manufacturing processes allowing for the integration of increasing numbers of computation units onto a single die. The resulting outcome, especially in the embedded domain, has often been called SYSTEM-ON-CHIP (SOC) or MULTI-PROCESSOR SYSTEM-ON-CHIP (MPSOC). MPSoC design brings to the foreground a large number of challenges, one of the most prominent of which is the design of the chip interconnection. With a number of on-chip blocks presently ranging in the tens, and quickly approaching the hundreds, the novel issue of how to best provide on-chip communication resources is clearly felt. NETWORKS-ON-CHIPS (NOCS) are the most comprehensive and scalable answer to this design concern. By bringing large-scale networking concepts to the on-chip domain, they guarantee a structured answer to present and future communication requirements. The point-to-point connection and packet switching paradigms they involve are also of great help in minimizing wiring overhead and physical routing issues. However, as with any technology of recent inception, NoC design is still an evolving discipline. Several main areas of interest require deep investigation for NoCs to become viable solutions: • The design of the NoC architecture needs to strike the best tradeoff among performance, features and the tight area and power constraints of the on-chip domain. • Simulation and verification infrastructure must be put in place to explore, validate and optimize the NoC performance. • NoCs offer a huge design space, thanks to their extreme customizability in terms of topology and architectural parameters. Design tools are needed to prune this space and pick the best solutions. • Even more so given their global, distributed nature, it is essential to evaluate the physical implementation of NoCs to evaluate their suitability for next-generation designs and their area and power costs. This dissertation focuses on all of the above points, by describing a NoC architectural implementation called ×pipes; a NoC simulation environment within a cycle-accurate MPSoC emulator called MPARM; a NoC design flow consisting of a front-end tool for optimal NoC instantiation, called SunFloor, and a set of back-end facilities for the study of NoC physical implementations. This dissertation proves the viability of NoCs for current and upcoming designs, by outlining their advantages (alongwith a fewtradeoffs) and by providing a full NoC implementation framework. It also presents some examples of additional extensions of NoCs, allowing e.g. for increased fault tolerance, and outlines where NoCsmay find further application scenarios, such as in stacked chips.

Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Dynamic identification of structures: experimental assessment of modal parameteres through methods in frequency domain, in time-frequency domain and model updating

Among the experimental methods commonly used to define the behaviour of a full scale system, dynamic tests are the most complete and efficient procedures. A dynamic test is an experimental process, which would define a set of characteristic parameters of the dynamic behaviour of the system, such as natural frequencies of the structure, mode shapes and the corresponding modal damping values associated. An assessment of these modal characteristics can be used both to verify the theoretical assumptions of the project, to monitor the performance of the structural system during its operational use. The thesis is structured in the following chapters: The first introductive chapter recalls some basic notions of dynamics of structure, focusing the discussion on the problem of systems with multiply degrees of freedom (MDOF), which can represent a generic real system under study, when it is excited with harmonic force or in free vibration. The second chapter is entirely centred on to the problem of dynamic identification process of a structure, if it is subjected to an experimental test in forced vibrations. It first describes the construction of FRF through classical FFT of the recorded signal. A different method, also in the frequency domain, is subsequently introduced; it allows accurately to compute the FRF using the geometric characteristics of the ellipse that represents the direct input-output comparison. The two methods are compared and then the attention is focused on some advantages of the proposed methodology. The third chapter focuses on the study of real structures when they are subjected to experimental test, where the force is not known, like in an ambient or impact test. In this analysis we decided to use the CWT, which allows a simultaneous investigation in the time and frequency domain of a generic signal x(t). The CWT is first introduced to process free oscillations, with excellent results both in terms of frequencies, dampings and vibration modes. The application in the case of ambient vibrations defines accurate modal parameters of the system, although on the damping some important observations should be made. The fourth chapter is still on the problem of post processing data acquired after a vibration test, but this time through the application of discrete wavelet transform (DWT). In the first part the results obtained by the DWT are compared with those obtained by the application of CWT. Particular attention is given to the use of DWT as a tool for filtering the recorded signal, in fact in case of ambient vibrations the signals are often affected by the presence of a significant level of noise. The fifth chapter focuses on another important aspect of the identification process: the model updating. In this chapter, starting from the modal parameters obtained from some environmental vibration tests, performed by the University of Porto in 2008 and the University of Sheffild on the Humber Bridge in England, a FE model of the bridge is defined, in order to define what type of model is able to capture more accurately the real dynamic behaviour of the bridge. The sixth chapter outlines the necessary conclusions of the presented research. They concern the application of a method in the frequency domain in order to evaluate the modal parameters of a structure and its advantages, the advantages in applying a procedure based on the use of wavelet transforms in the process of identification in tests with unknown input and finally the problem of 3D modeling of systems with many degrees of freedom and with different types of uncertainty.

Advanced modelling of time domain electromagnetic data with updated hydrogeological interpretations

Several countries have acquired, over the past decades, large amounts of area covering Airborne Electromagnetic data. Contribution of airborne geophysics has dramatically increased for both groundwater resource mapping and management proving how those systems are appropriate for large-scale and efficient groundwater surveying. We start with processing and inversion of two AEM dataset from two different systems collected over the Spiritwood Valley Aquifer area, Manitoba, Canada respectively, the AeroTEM III (commissioned by the Geological Survey of Canada in 2010) and the “Full waveform VTEM” dataset, collected and tested over the same survey area, during the fall 2011. We demonstrate that in the presence of multiple datasets, either AEM and ground data, due processing, inversion, post-processing, data integration and data calibration is the proper approach capable of providing reliable and consistent resistivity models. Our approach can be of interest to many end users, ranging from Geological Surveys, Universities to Private Companies, which are often proprietary of large geophysical databases to be interpreted for geological and\or hydrogeological purposes. In this study we deeply investigate the role of integration of several complimentary types of geophysical data collected over the same survey area. We show that data integration can improve inversions, reduce ambiguity and deliver high resolution results. We further attempt to use the final, most reliable output resistivity models as a solid basis for building a knowledge-driven 3D geological voxel-based model. A voxel approach allows a quantitative understanding of the hydrogeological setting of the area, and it can be further used to estimate the aquifers volumes (i.e. potential amount of groundwater resources) as well as hydrogeological flow model prediction. In addition, we investigated the impact of an AEM dataset towards hydrogeological mapping and 3D hydrogeological modeling, comparing it to having only a ground based TEM dataset and\or to having only boreholes data.

Essays in Long-run Development and Spatial Economics

This thesis tries to further our understanding for why some countries today are more prosperous than others. It establishes that part of today's observed variation in several proxies such as income or gender inequality have been determined in the distant past. Chapter one shows that 450 years of (Catholic) Portuguese colonisation had a long-lasting impact in India when it comes to education and female emancipation. Furthermore I use a historical quasi-experiment that happened 250 years ago in order to show that different outcomes have different degrees of persitence over time. Educational gaps between males and females seemingly wash out a few decades after the public provision of schools. The male biased sex-ratios on the other hand stay virtually unchanged despite governmental efforts. This provides evidence that deep rooted son preferences are much harder to overcome, suggesting that a differential approach is needed to tackle sex-selective abortion and female neglect. The second chapter proposes improvements for the execution of Spatial Regression Discontinuity Designs. These suggestions are accompanied by a full-fledged spatial statistical package written in R. Chapter three introduces a quantitative economic geography model in order to study the peculiar evolution of the European urban system on its way to the Industrial Revolution. It can explain the shift of economic gravity from the Mediterranean towards the North-Sea ("little divergence"). The framework provides novel insights on the importance of agricultural trade costs and the peculiar geography of Europe with its extended coastline and dense network of navigable rivers.

Science of retracted science: a citation analysis of the arts and humanities domain

In the scholarly publishing domain, a retraction is raised when a specific publication is considered erroneous by the venue in which it appeared after it was published. The aim of this work is uncovering new insights and learn new important information to help us understand the retraction phenomenon in the arts and humanities domain. Our investigation is based on a methodology defined using quantitative and qualitative measures derived from previous studies in the transdisciplinary research field of “science of science” (SciSci). The designed methodology takes into account a general case of retraction and applies a citation analysis based on five phases. Citations to retracted publications (before and after their retraction) are gathered and characterized with a set of attributes, including general metadata and information extracted from citing entities’ full text. The annotated characteristics are further considered for a statistical and a textual analysis (i.e., a topic modeling analysis). The contribution of this thesis is grounded by addressing the following research questions: (RQ1) How did scholarly research cite retracted humanities publications before and after their retraction? (RQ2) Did all the humanities areas behave similarly concerning the retraction phenomenon? (RQ3) What are the main differences and similarities in the retraction dynamics between the humanities domain and the STEM disciplines? RQ1 and RQ2 are addressed by tuning and applying the methodology on the analysis of the retracted publications in the humanities domain. RQ3 is addressed on two levels, i.e., considering and comparing: (L1) the outcomes of the past studies on the retraction in STEM, and (L2) the results obtained from an analysis of a retraction case in STEM using the defined methodology.

Flexible Computing Systems For AI Acceleration At The Extreme Edge Of The IoT

Embedding intelligence in extreme edge devices allows distilling raw data acquired from sensors into actionable information, directly on IoT end-nodes. This computing paradigm, in which end-nodes no longer depend entirely on the Cloud, offers undeniable benefits, driving a large research area (TinyML) to deploy leading Machine Learning (ML) algorithms on micro-controller class of devices. To fit the limited memory storage capability of these tiny platforms, full-precision Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are compressed by representing their data down to byte and sub-byte formats, in the integer domain. However, the current generation of micro-controller systems can barely cope with the computing requirements of QNNs. This thesis tackles the challenge from many perspectives, presenting solutions both at software and hardware levels, exploiting parallelism, heterogeneity and software programmability to guarantee high flexibility and high energy-performance proportionality. The first contribution, PULP-NN, is an optimized software computing library for QNN inference on parallel ultra-low-power (PULP) clusters of RISC-V processors, showing one order of magnitude improvements in performance and energy efficiency, compared to current State-of-the-Art (SoA) STM32 micro-controller systems (MCUs) based on ARM Cortex-M cores. The second contribution is XpulpNN, a set of RISC-V domain specific instruction set architecture (ISA) extensions to deal with sub-byte integer arithmetic computation. The solution, including the ISA extensions and the micro-architecture to support them, achieves energy efficiency comparable with dedicated DNN accelerators and surpasses the efficiency of SoA ARM Cortex-M based MCUs, such as the low-end STM32M4 and the high-end STM32H7 devices, by up to three orders of magnitude. To overcome the Von Neumann bottleneck while guaranteeing the highest flexibility, the final contribution integrates an Analog In-Memory Computing accelerator into the PULP cluster, creating a fully programmable heterogeneous fabric that demonstrates end-to-end inference capabilities of SoA MobileNetV2 models, showing two orders of magnitude performance improvements over current SoA analog/digital solutions.

Mathematical methods to analyze and interpret calcium signals of astrocytes

Astrocytes are the most numerous glial cell type in the mammalian brain and permeate the entire CNS interacting with neurons, vasculature, and other glial cells. Astrocytes display intracellular calcium signals that encode information about local synaptic function, distributed network activity, and high-level cognitive functions. Several studies have investigated the calcium dynamics of astrocytes in sensory areas and have shown that these cells can encode sensory stimuli. Nevertheless, only recently the neuro-scientific community has focused its attention on the role and functions of astrocytes in associative areas such as the hippocampus. In our first study, we used the information theory formalism to show that astrocytes in the CA1 area of the hippocampus recorded with 2-photon fluorescence microscopy during spatial navigation encode spatial information that is complementary and synergistic to information encoded by nearby "place cell" neurons. In our second study, we investigated various computational aspects of applying the information theory formalism to astrocytic calcium data. For this reason, we generated realistic simulations of calcium signals in astrocytes to determine optimal hyperparameters and procedures of information measures and applied them to real astrocytic calcium imaging data. Calcium signals of astrocytes are characterized by complex spatiotemporal dynamics occurring in subcellular parcels of the astrocytic domain which makes studying these cells in 2-photon calcium imaging recordings difficult. However, current analytical tools which identify the astrocytic subcellular regions are time consuming and extensively rely on user-defined parameters. Here, we present Rapid Astrocytic calcium Spatio-Temporal Analysis (RASTA), a novel machine learning algorithm for spatiotemporal semantic segmentation of 2-photon calcium imaging recordings of astrocytes which operates without human intervention. We found that RASTA provided fast and accurate identification of astrocytic cell somata, processes, and cellular domains, extracting calcium signals from identified regions of interest across individual cells and populations of hundreds of astrocytes recorded in awake mice.