Towards Rapid Environmental Assessment and Coastal Forecasting in the Northern Adriatic Sea

A new Coastal Rapid Environmental Assessment (CREA) strategy has been developed and successfully applied to the Northern Adriatic Sea. CREA strategy exploits the recent advent of operational oceanography to establish a CREA system based on an operational regional forecasting system and coastal monitoring networks of opportunity. The methodology wishes to initialize a coastal high resolution model, nested within the regional forecasting system, blending the large scale parent model fields with the available coastal observations to generate the requisite field estimates. CREA modeling system consists of a high resolution, O(800m), Adriatic SHELF model (ASHELF) implemented into the Northern Adriatic basin and nested within the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) (Oddo et al. 2006). The observational system is composed by the coastal networks established in the framework of ADRICOSM (ADRiatic sea integrated COastal areaS and river basin Managment system) Pilot Project. An assimilation technique exerts a correction of the initial field provided by AFS on the basis of the available observations. The blending of the two data sets has been carried out through a multi-scale optimal interpolation technique developed by Mariano and Brown (1992). Two CREA weekly exercises have been conducted: the first, at the beginning of May (spring experiment); the second in middle August (summer experiment). The weeks have been chosen looking at the availability of all coastal observations in the initialization day and one week later to validate model results, verifying our predictive skills. ASHELF spin up time has been investigated too, through a dedicated experiment, in order to obtain the maximum forecast accuracy within a minimum time. Energetic evaluations show that for the Northern Adriatic Sea and for the forcing applied, a spin-up period of one week allows ASHELF to generate new circulation features enabled by the increased resolution and its total kinetic energy to establish a new dynamical balance. CREA results, evaluated by mean of standard statistics between ASHELF and coastal CTDs, show improvement deriving from the initialization technique and a good model performance in the coastal areas of the Northern Adriatic basin, characterized by a shallow and wide continental shelf subject to substantial freshwater influence from rivers. Results demonstrate the feasibility of our CREA strategy to support coastal zone management and wish an additional establishment of operational coastal monitoring activities to advance it.

Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach

The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact.

Simulation Guided Navigation in cranio-maxillo-facial surgery: a new approach to improve intraoperative three-dimensional accuracy and reproducibility during surgery.

The aim of this PhD thesis " Simulation Guided Navigation in cranio- maxillo- facial surgery : a new approach to Improve intraoperative three-dimensional accuracy and reproducibility during surgery ." was at the center of its attention the various applications of a method introduced by our School in 2010 and has as its theme the increase of interest of reproducibility of surgical programs through methods that in whole or in part are using intraoperative navigation. It was introduced in Orthognathic Surgery Validation a new method for the interventions carried out according to the method Simulation Guided Navigation in facial deformities ; was then analyzed the method of three-dimensional control of the osteotomies through the use of templates and cutting of plates using the method precontoured CAD -CAM and laser sintering . It was finally proceeded to introduce the method of piezonavigated surgery in the various branches of maxillofacial surgery . These studies have been subjected to validation processes and the results are presented .

Constraints on neutrino mass fraction using Redshift Space Distortions

Redshift Space Distortions (RSD) are an apparent anisotropy in the distribution of galaxies due to their peculiar motion. These features are imprinted in the correlation function of galaxies, which describes how these structures distribute around each other. RSD can be represented by a distortions parameter $\beta$, which is strictly related to the growth of cosmic structures. For this reason, measurements of RSD can be exploited to give constraints on the cosmological parameters, such us for example the neutrino mass. Neutrinos are neutral subatomic particles that come with three flavours, the electron, the muon and the tau neutrino. Their mass differences can be measured in the oscillation experiments. Information on the absolute scale of neutrino mass can come from cosmology, since neutrinos leave a characteristic imprint on the large scale structure of the universe. The aim of this thesis is to provide constraints on the accuracy with which neutrino mass can be estimated when expoiting measurements of RSD. In particular we want to describe how the error on the neutrino mass estimate depends on three fundamental parameters of a galaxy redshift survey: the density of the catalogue, the bias of the sample considered and the volume observed. In doing this we make use of the BASICC Simulation from which we extract a series of dark matter halo catalogues, characterized by different value of bias, density and volume. This mock data are analysed via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure, in order to estimate the neutrino mass fraction, using the software package CosmoMC, which has been conveniently modified. In this way we are able to extract a fitting formula describing our measurements, which can be used to forecast the precision reachable in future surveys like Euclid, using this kind of observations.

Accuracy of liver stiffness measurement using fibroscan ® to predict the response to antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis c viral infection

Introduction: Antiviral therapy can prevent disease progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C . Transient Elastografy (TE; Fibroscan) is an accurate surrogate marker to liver fibrosis, by measuring liver stiffness (LS). LS decrease has been associated with sustained virologic response (SVR). Aim: to assess the changes of LS measurments in CHC patients during and one year after Interferon (IFN)-based antiviral therapy (IFN/ribavirin) or (telaprevir+IFN/ribavirin). Methods: consecutive 69 CHC patients (53.6% females, mean age 57.9 ± 11.4) who underwent antiviral therapy for at least 20 weeks were enrolled. LS was measured using FibroScan at baseline, after three months, at the end of treatment and one year after treatment discontinuation. Fibrosis was graded using METAVIR score. Results: twenty patients treated with triple therapy and 49 with IFN/ribavirin. Fifty patients had SVR and 19 were non-responders. SVR patients: F0-F1, F2 and F3 patients (39.1%, 7.2% and 17.4%; respectively) showed no significant LS decrease (P= 0.186, 0.068 and 0.075; respectively). Conversely, in F4 patients (36.2%) LS was significantly decreased (P=0.015) after one year of treatment completion. In all patients with no SVR, no significant decrease in LS was observed. Interestingly, all Patients with F4 fibrosis (even non-responders) showed an initial significant decrease in LS (P=0.024) at 3 months after the start of treatment. However, this decrease was not predictive of SVR; area under the ROC curve 0.369 (CI %: 0.145-0.592) P= 0.265. Conclusion: Our study showed that initial decrease in LSM, especially in patients with higher baseline fibrosis score is unlikely to predict an SVR. In addition no significant association was found between clinical or virological parameters and fibrosis improvement. Further studies are needed to delineate the most appropriate clinical scenarios for the LSM by Fibroscan in chronic hepatitis C and its role in monitoring the response to antiviral treatment.