Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Gas Forced Convection through Microtubes and Micro Heat Exchangers

The last decade has witnessed very fast development in microfabrication technologies. The increasing industrial applications of microfluidic systems call for more intensive and systematic knowledge on this newly emerging field. Especially for gaseous flow and heat transfer at microscale, the applicability of conventional theories developed at macro scale is not yet completely validated; this is mainly due to scarce experimental data available in literature for gas flows. The objective of this thesis is to investigate these unclear elements by analyzing forced convection for gaseous flows through microtubes and micro heat exchangers. Experimental tests have been performed with microtubes having various inner diameters, namely 750 m, 510 m and 170 m, over a wide range of Reynolds number covering the laminar region, the transitional zone and also the onset region of the turbulent regime. The results show that conventional theory is able to predict the flow friction factor when flow compressibility does not appear and the effect of fluid temperature-dependent properties is insignificant. A double-layered microchannel heat exchanger has been designed in order to study experimentally the efficiency of a gas-to-gas micro heat exchanger. This microdevice contains 133 parallel microchannels machined into polished PEEK plates for both the hot side and the cold side. The microchannels are 200 µm high, 200 µm wide and 39.8 mm long. The design of the micro device has been made in order to be able to test different materials as partition foil with flexible thickness. Experimental tests have been carried out for five different partition foils, with various mass flow rates and flow configurations. The experimental results indicate that the thermal performance of the countercurrent and cross flow micro heat exchanger can be strongly influenced by axial conduction in the partition foil separating the hot gas flow and cold gas flow.