Assessing the fit of unidimensional IRT models for binary data under model misspecification

Model misspecification affects the classical test statistics used to assess the fit of the Item Response Theory (IRT) models. Robust tests have been derived under model misspecification, as the Generalized Lagrange Multiplier and Hausman tests, but their use has not been largely explored in the IRT framework. In the first part of the thesis, we introduce the Generalized Lagrange Multiplier test to detect differential item response functioning in IRT models for binary data under model misspecification. By means of a simulation study and a real data analysis, we compare its performance with the classical Lagrange Multiplier test, computed using the Hessian and the cross-product matrix, and the Generalized Jackknife Score test. The power of these tests is computed empirically and asymptotically. The misspecifications considered are local dependence among items and non-normal distribution of the latent variable. The results highlight that, under mild model misspecification, all tests have good performance while, under strong model misspecification, the performance of the tests deteriorates. None of the tests considered show an overall superior performance than the others. In the second part of the thesis, we extend the Generalized Hausman test to detect non-normality of the latent variable distribution. To build the test, we consider a seminonparametric-IRT model, that assumes a more flexible latent variable distribution. By means of a simulation study and two real applications, we compare the performance of the Generalized Hausman test with the M2 limited information goodness-of-fit test and the Likelihood-Ratio test. Additionally, the information criteria are computed. The Generalized Hausman test has a better performance than the Likelihood-Ratio test in terms of Type I error rates and the M2 test in terms of power. The performance of the Generalized Hausman test and the information criteria deteriorates when the sample size is small and with a few items.

A Multilevel Model with Time Series Components for the Analysis of Tribal Art Prices

In the present work we perform an econometric analysis of the Tribal art market. To this aim, we use a unique and original database that includes information on Tribal art market auctions worldwide from 1998 to 2011. In Literature, art prices are modelled through the hedonic regression model, a classic fixed-effect model. The main drawback of the hedonic approach is the large number of parameters, since, in general, art data include many categorical variables. In this work, we propose a multilevel model for the analysis of Tribal art prices that takes into account the influence of time on artwork prices. In fact, it is natural to assume that time exerts an influence over the price dynamics in various ways. Nevertheless, since the set of objects change at every auction date, we do not have repeated measurements of the same items over time. Hence, the dataset does not constitute a proper panel; rather, it has a two-level structure in that items, level-1 units, are grouped in time points, level-2 units. The main theoretical contribution is the extension of classical multilevel models to cope with the case described above. In particular, we introduce a model with time dependent random effects at the second level. We propose a novel specification of the model, derive the maximum likelihood estimators and implement them through the E-M algorithm. We test the finite sample properties of the estimators and the validity of the own-written R-code by means of a simulation study. Finally, we show that the new model improves considerably the fit of the Tribal art data with respect to both the hedonic regression model and the classic multilevel model.

Poverty and Mental Health. Tangible and Intangible Aspects of Microcredit

Microcredit, a small lending system, invests on an individual's creativity by stimulating the development of their own potential. This process leads to the attainment of various objectives which in turn allow individuals to develop their skill awareness. Consequently, this process also increases an individual’s self-esteem and self-confidence. These factors play an important role in the aetiology of a number of mental disorders. Namely, those characterized by a series of psychological conditions which impede the full development of a person’s personal, relational and social sphere. Furthermore, since Microcredit is thought to produce tangible goods, such as income, and intangible goods, such as self-esteem and mutual trust, it could also represent an innovative socio-economic tool. We therefore also hypothesize that, Microcredit would be valuable in maximizing abilities/skills in those subjects who are financially excluded and rarely perceived as a ‘resource’ for the Community The longitudinal study set the impact of the Grameen Bank microcredit program on new borrowers women from Noakhali District at the south Bangladesh. The impact evaluation assessment has been structured to detect individual, family and social changes. Manova Analysis allowed distinguishing from women with positive or negative outcomes related to the loan performance. Data revealed consistent differences in terms of economical outcomes and psychological well being amongst the groups of subject analyzed. The data gathered in relation to the changes arisen in the individuals should be looked into through future, continuous and systematic, monitoring.

Governing the water conservation in the Urmia Lake Basin: addressing macro systems’ fit and micro users’ behavior

To change unadapted water governing systems, and water users’ traditional conducts in line with climate change, understanding of systems’ structures and users’ behaviors is necessary. To this aim, comprehensive and pragmatic research was designed and implemented in the Urmia Lake Basin where due to the severe droughts, and human-made influences, especially through the agricultural development, the lake has been shrunken drastically. To analyze the water governance and conservation issues in the basin, an innovative framework was developed based on mathematical physics concepts and pro-environmental behavior theories. Accordingly, in system level (macro/meso), the problem of fit of the early-shaped water governing system associating with the function of “political-security” and “political-economic” factors in the basin was identified through mean-field models. Furthermore, the effect of a “political-environmental” factor, the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP), on reforming the system structure and hence its fit was assessed. The analysis results revealed that by revising the provincial boundaries (horizontal alternation) for the entity of Kurdistan province to permit that interact with the headquarter of West Azerbaijan province for its water demand-supply initiatives, the system fit can increase. Also, the constitution of the ULRP (vertical arrangement) not only could increase the structural fit of the water governing system to the basin, but also significantly could enhance the system fit through its water-saving policy. Besides, in individual level (micro), the governing factors of water conservation behavior of the major users/farmers were identified through rational and moral socio-psychological models. In rational approach, incorporating PMT and TPB, the SEM results demonstrated that “Perceived Vulnerability”, “Self-Efficacy”, “Response Efficacy”, “Response Cost”, “Subjective Norms” and “Institutional Trust” significantly affect the water-saving intention/behavior. Likewise, NAM based analysis as a moral approach, uncovered the significant effects of “Awareness of Consequences”, “Appraisal of Responsibility”, “Personal Norms” as well as “Place Attachment” and “Emotions” on water-saving intention.

Calibrazione di modelli idrologici con algoritmi multiobiettivo

Traditional procedures for rainfall-runoff model calibration are generally based on the fit of the individual values of simulated and observed hydrographs. It is used here an alternative option that is carried out by matching, in the optimisation process, a set of statistics of the river flow. Such approach has the additional, significant advantage to allow also a straightforward regional calibration of the model parameters, based on the regionalisation of the selected statistics. The minimisation of the set of objective functions is carried out by using the AMALGAM algorithm, leading to the identification of behavioural parameter sets. The procedure is applied to a set of river basins located in central Italy: the basins are treated alternatively as gauged and ungauged and, as a term of comparison, the results obtained with a traditional time-domain calibration is also presented. The results show that a suitable choice of the statistics to be optimised leads to interesting results in real world case studies as far as the reproduction of the different flow regimes is concerned.

Stima dei parametri di modelli idrologici mediante ottimizzazione dell’utilità

Tradizionalmente, l'obiettivo della calibrazione di un modello afflussi-deflussi è sempre stato quello di ottenere un set di parametri (o una distribuzione di probabilità dei parametri) che massimizzasse l'adattamento dei dati simulati alla realtà osservata, trattando parzialmente le finalità applicative del modello. Nel lavoro di tesi viene proposta una metodologia di calibrazione che trae spunto dell'evidenza che non sempre la corrispondenza tra dati osservati e simulati rappresenti il criterio più appropriato per calibrare un modello idrologico. Ai fini applicativi infatti, può risultare maggiormente utile una miglior rappresentazione di un determinato aspetto dell'idrogramma piuttosto che un altro. Il metodo di calibrazione che viene proposto mira a valutare le prestazioni del modello stimandone l'utilità nell'applicazione prevista. Tramite l'utilizzo di opportune funzioni, ad ogni passo temporale viene valutata l'utilità della simulazione ottenuta. La calibrazione viene quindi eseguita attraverso la massimizzazione di una funzione obiettivo costituita dalla somma delle utilità stimate nei singoli passi temporali. Le analisi mostrano come attraverso l'impiego di tali funzioni obiettivo sia possibile migliorare le prestazioni del modello laddove ritenute di maggior interesse per per le finalità applicative previste.

Studi epidemiologici su Pseudomonas syringae pv.actinidiae agente causale del cancro batterico in actinidia

Il cancro batterico dell’actinidia causato da Pseudomonas syringae pv.actinidiae (Psa) suscita grande interesse a livello globale a partire dal 2008. La malattia è comparsa in Giappone e in due anni ha avuto una diffusione epidemica in tutte le aree di coltivazione mondiale di actinidia. Gravi perdite economiche hanno attirato l’attenzione internazionale su questa problematica e grandi sforzi sono stati rivolti allo studio di questo patosistema ancora poco conosciuto. E’ emerso infatti che il patogeno può rimanere in fase latente per lunghi periodi senza causare sintomi caratteristici nelle piante infette, e che dalla comparsa dei sintomi la pianta muore nell’arco di un paio d’anni. Il monitoraggio ed il controllo della situazione è perciò di fondamentale importanza ed è ancora più importante prevenire la comparsa di nuovi focolai di infezione. A questo proposito sarebbe opportuno l’impiego di materiale vegetale di propagazione non infetto, ma in molti casi questo diventa difficile, dal momento che il materiale impiegato è generalmente quello asintomatico, non analizzato precedentemente per la presenza del patogeno. Negli ultimi anni sono state perciò messe a punto molte tecniche molecolari per l’identificazione di Psa direttamente da materiale vegetale. L’obiettivo di questo lavoro è stato quello di studiare l’epidemiologia di Psa in piante adulte infette e di verificare l’efficacia di metodi di diagnosi precoce per prevenire la malattia. A tale scopo il lavoro sperimentale è stato suddiviso in diverse fasi: i) studio della localizzazione, traslocazione e sopravvivenza di Psa nelle piante, a seguito di inoculazione in piante adulte di actinidia di ceppi marcati Psa::gfp; ii) studio della capacità di Psa di essere mantenuto in germogli di actinidia attraverso sette generazioni di micropropagazione dopo l’inoculazione delle piante madri con lo stesso ceppo marcato Psa::gfp; iii) studio ed applicazioni di un nuovo metodo di diagnosi precoce di Psa basato sull’analisi molecolare del “pianto”.

Search for heavy neutrinos in $D_s$ decays with the CMS detector at LHC

This thesis presents a search for a sterile right-handed neutrino $N$ produced in $D_s$ meson decays, using proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC. The data set used for the analysis, the B-Parking data set, corresponds to an integrated luminosity of $41.7\,\textrm{fb}^{-1}$ and was collected during the 2018 data-taking period. The analysis is targeting the $D_s^+\rightarrow N(\rightarrow\mu^{\pm}\pi^{\mp})\mu^{+}$ decays, where the final state muons can have the same electric charge allowing for a lepton flavor violating decay. To separate signal from background, a cut-based analysis is optimized using requirements on the sterile neutrino vertex displacement, muon and pion impact parameter, and impact parameter significance. The expected limit on the active-sterile neutrino mixing matrix parameter $|V_{\mu}|^2$ is extracted by performing a fit of the $\mu\pi$ invariant mass spectrum for two sterile neutrino mass hypotheses, 1.0 and 1.5 GeV. The analysis is currently blinded, following the internal CMS review process. The expected limit ranges between approximately $10^{-4}$ for a 1.0 GeV neutrino to $7\times10^{-5}$ for a 1.5 GeV neutrino. This is competitive with the best existing results from collider experiments over the same mass range.