Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Study of the effect of minor compounds on the oxidative stability and physical properties of bulk oil, oil-in-water emulsion, and food emulsions

Minor components are of particular interest due to their antioxidant and biological properties. Various classes of lipophilic minor components (plant sterols (PS) and α-tocopherol) were selected as they are widely used in the food industry. A Fast GC-MS method for PS analysis in functional dairy products was set up. The analytical performance and significant reduction of the analysis time and consumables, demonstrated that Fast GC-MS could be suitable for the PS analysis in functional dairy products. Due to their chemical structure, PS can undergo oxidation, which could be greatly impacted by matrix nature/composition and thermal treatments. The oxidative stability of PS during microwave heating was evaluated. Two different model systems (PS alone and in combination) were heated up to 30 min at 1000 W. PS degraded faster when they were alone than in presence of TAG. The extent of PS degradation depends on both heating time and the surrounding medium, which can impact the quality and safety of the food product destined to microwave heating/cooking. Many minor lipid components are included in emulsion systems and can affect the rate of lipid oxidation. The oxidative stability of oil-in-water (O/W) emulsions containing PS esters, ω-3 FA and phenolic compounds, were evaluated after a 14-day storage at room temperature. Due to their surface active character, PS could be particularly prone to oxidation when they are incorporated in emulsions, as they are more exposed to water-soluble prooxidants. Finally, some minor lipophilic components may increase oxidative stability of food systems due to their antioxidant activity. á-tocopherol partitioning and antioxidant activity was determined in the presence of excess SDS in stripped soybean O/W emulsions. Results showed that surfactant micelles could play a key role as an antioxidant carrier, by potentially increasing the accessibility of hydrophobic antioxidant to the interface.

Numerical and physical modelling of axially loaded piles for offshore wind turbines

The scope of the thesis is to broaden the knowledge about axially loaded pipe piles, that can play as foundations for offshore wind turbines based on jacket structures. The goal of the work was pursued by interpreting experimental data on large-scale model piles and by developing numerical tools for the prediction of their monotonic response to tensile and compressive loads to failure. The availability of experimental results on large scale model piles produced in two different campaigns at Fraunhofer IWES (Hannover, Germany) represented the reference for the whole work. Data from CPTs, blow counts during installation and load-displacement curves allowed to develop considerations on the experimental results and comparison with empirical methods from literature, such as CPT-based methods and Load Transfer methods. The understanding of soil-structure interaction mechanisms has been involved in the study in order to better assess the mechanical response of the sand with the scope to help in developing predictive tools of the experiments. A lack of information on the response of Rohsand 3152 when in contact with steel was highlighted, so the necessity of better assessing its response was fulfilled with a comprehensive campaign of interface shear test. It was found how the response of the sand to ultimate conditions evolve with the roughness of the steel, which is a precious information to take account of when attempting the prediction of a pile capacity. Parallel to this topic, the work has developed a numerical modelling procedure that was validated on the available large-scale model piles at IWES. The modelling strategy is intended to build a FE model whose mechanical properties of the sand come from an interpretation of commonly available geotechnical tests. The results of the FE model were compared with other predictive tools currently used in the engineering practice.

Mitochondrial Genomics: structure, inheritance and phylogenetic utility of the Mitochondrial genome in Bivalvia and Insecta

This PhD Thesis is the result of my research activity in the last three years. My main research interest was centered on the evolution of mitochondrial genome (mtDNA), and on its usefulness as a phylogeographic and phylogenetic marker at different taxonomic levels in different taxa of Metazoa. From a methodological standpoint, my main effort was dedicated to the sequencing of complete mitochondrial genomes, and the approach to whole-genome sequencing was based on the application of Long-PCR and shotgun sequences. Moreover, this research project is a part of a bigger sequencing project of mtDNAs in many different Metazoans’ taxa, and I mostly dedicated myself to sequence and analyze mtDNAs in selected taxa of bivalves and hexapods (Insecta). Sequences of bivalve mtDNAs are particularly limited, and my study contributed to extend the sampling. Moreover, I used the bivalve Musculista senhousia as model taxon to investigate the molecular mechanisms and the evolutionary significance of their aberrant mode of mitochondrial inheritance (Doubly Uniparental Inheritance, see below). In Insects, I focused my attention on the Genus Bacillus (Insecta Phasmida). A detailed phylogenetic analysis was performed in order to assess phylogenetic relationships within the genus, and to investigate the placement of Phasmida in the phylogenetic tree of Insecta. The main goal of this part of my study was to add to the taxonomic coverage of sequenced mtDNAs in basal insects, which were only partially analyzed.

Synthesis and Physical-Chemical characterization of Metallic Nanoparticles

The stabilization of nanoparticles against their irreversible particle aggregation and oxidation reactions. is a requirement for further advancement in nanoparticle science and technology. For this reason the research aim on this topic focuses on the synthesis of various metal nanoparticles protected with monolayers containing different reactive head groups and functional tail groups. In this work cuprous bromide nanocrystals haave been synthetized with a diameter of about 20 nanometers according to a new sybthetic method adding dropwise ascorbic acid to a water solution of lithium bromide and cupric chloride under continuous stirring and nitrogen flux. Butane thiolate Cu protected nanoparticles have been synthetized according to three different syntesys methods. Their morphologies appear related to the physicochemical conditions during the synthesis and to the dispersing medium used to prepare the sample. Synthesis method II allows to obtain stable nanoparticles of 1-2 nm in size both isolated and forming clusters. Nanoparticle cluster formation was enhanced as water was used as dispersing medium probably due to the idrophobic nature of the butanethiolate layers coating the nanoparticle surface. Synthesis methods I and III lead to large unstable spherical nanoparticles with size ranging between 20 to 50 nm. These nanoparticles appeared in the TEM micrograph with the same morphology independently on the dispersing medium used in the sample preparation. The stability and dimensions of the copper nanoparticles appear inversely related. Using the same methods above described for the butanethiolate protected copper nanoparticles 4-methylbenzenethiol protected copper nanoparticles have been prepared. Diffractometric and spectroscopic data reveal that decomposition processes didn’t occur in both the 4-methylbenzenethiol copper protected nanoparticles precipitates from formic acid and from water in a period of time six month long. Se anticarcinogenic effects by multiple mechanisms have been extensively investigated and documented and Se is defined a genuine nutritional cancer-protecting element and a significant protective effect of Se against major forms of cancer. Furthermore phloroglucinol was found to possess cytoprotective effects against oxidative stress, thanks to reactive oxygen species (ROS) which are associated with cells and tissue damages and are the contributing factors for inflammation, aging, cancer, arteriosclerosis, hypertension and diabetes. The goal of our work has been to set up a new method to synthesize in mild conditions amorphous Se nanopaticles surface capped with phloroglucinol, which is used during synthesis as reducing agent to obtain stable Se nanoparticles in ethanol, performing the synergies offered by the specific anticarcinogenic properties of Se and the antioxiding ones of phloroalucinol. We have synthesized selenium nanoparticles protected by phenolic molecules chemically bonded to their surface. The phenol molecules coating the nanoparticles surfaces form low ordered arrays as can be seen from the wider shape of the absorptions in the FT-IR spectrum with respect to those appearing in that of crystalline phenol. On the other hand, metallic nanoparticles with unique optical properties, facile surface chemistry and appropriate size scale are generating much enthusiasm in nanomedicine. In fact Au nanoparticles has immense potential for both cancer diagnosis and therapy. Especially Au nanoparticles efficiently convert the strongly adsorbed light into localized heat, which can be exploited for the selective laser photothermal therapy of cancer. According to the about, metal nanoparticles-HA nanocrystals composites should have tremendous potential in novel methods for therapy of cancer. 11 mercaptoundecanoic surface protected Au4Ag1 nanoparticles adsorbed on nanometric apathyte crystals we have successfully prepared like an anticancer nanoparticles deliver system utilizing biomimetic hydroxyapatyte nanocrystals as deliver agents. Furthermore natural chrysotile, formed by densely packed bundles of multiwalled hollow nanotubes, is a mineral very suitable for nanowires preparation when their inner nanometer-sized cavity is filled with a proper material. Bundles of chrysotile nanotubes can then behave as host systems, where their large interchannel separation is actually expected to prevent the interaction between individual guest metallic nanoparticles and act as a confining barrier. Chrysotile nanotubes have been filled with molten metals such as Hg, Pb, Sn, semimetals, Bi, Te, Se, and with semiconductor materials such as InSb, CdSe, GaAs, and InP using both high-pressure techniques and metal-organic chemical vapor deposition. Under hydrothermal conditions chrysotile nanocrystals have been synthesized as a single phase and can be utilized as a very suitable for nanowires preparation filling their inner nanometer-sized cavity with metallic nanoparticles. In this research work we have synthesized and characterized Stoichiometric synthetic chrysotile nanotubes have been partially filled with bi and monometallic highly monodispersed nanoparticles with diameters ranging from 1,7 to 5,5 nm depending on the core composition (Au, Au4Ag1, Au1Ag4, Ag). In the case of 4 methylbenzenethiol protected silver nanoparticles, the filling was carried out by convection and capillarity effect at room temperature and pressure using a suitable organic solvent. We have obtained new interesting nanowires constituted of metallic nanoparticles filled in inorganic nanotubes with a inner cavity of 7 nm and an isolating wall with a thick ranging from 7 to 21 nm.

Structure, Dynamics and Reactivity in the Organic Solid State: Anthracene Derivatives and Charge Transfer Crystals

The work presented in this thesis tackles some important points concerning the collective properties of two typical categories of molecular crystals, i.e., anthracene derivatives and charge transfer crystals. Anthracene derivatives have constituted the class of materials from which systematical investigations of crystal-to-crystal photodimerization reactions started, developed and have been the subject of a new awakening in the recent years. In this work some of these compounds, namely, 9-cyanoanthacene, 9-anthacenecarboxylic acid and 9-methylanthracene, have been selected as model systems for a phenomenological approach to some key properties of the solid state, investigated by spectroscopic methods. The present results show that, on the basis of the solid state organization and the chemical nature of each compound, photo-reaction dynamics and kinetics display distinctive behaviors, which allows for a classification of the various processes in topochemical, non topochemical, reversible or topophysical. The second part of the thesis was focused on charge transfer crystals, binary systems formed by stoichiometric combinations of the charge donating perylene (D) and the charge accepting tetracyano-quinodimethane (A), this latter also in its fluorinated derivatives. The work was focused on the growth of single crystals, some of which not yet reported in the literature, by PVT technique. Structural and spectroscopic characterizations have been performed, with the aim of determining the degree of charge transfer between donor and acceptor in the co-crystals. An interesting outcome of the systematic search performed in this work is the definition of the experimental conditions which drive the crystal growth of the binary systems either towards the low (1:1) or the high ratio (3:1 or 3:2) stoichiometries.