Essays in Economic Geography and Long-Term Development

This dissertation has two main themes: first, the economic impact of tourism on cities and, secondly, the determinants of European long-run development, with a focus on the pre-Industrial era. The common thread is the attempt to develop economic geography models that incorporate spatial frictions and are liable to be given empirical content. Chapter 1, written in conjunction with G. Alfredo Minerva, provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between tourism and economic activity across Italian municipalities, and lays down the basic elements of an urban theory of tourism in an a-spatial setting. Chapter 2 extends these ideas to a quantitative urban framework to study the economic impact and the welfare consequences of tourism into the city of Venice. The model is given empirical content thanks to a large collection of data at the Census tract level for the Municipality of Venice, and then used to perform counterfactual policty analysis. In chapter 3, with Matteo Santacesaria, we consider a setting where agents are continuously distributed over a two-dimensional heterogeneous geography, and are allowed to do business at a finite set of markets. We study the equilibrium partition of the economic space into a collection of mutually-exclusive market areas, and provide condition for this equilibrium partition to exist and to be unique. Finally, chapter 4 "The rise of (urban) Europe: a Quantitative-Spatial analysis", co-authored with Matteo Cervellati and Alex Lehner, sets up a quantitative economic geography model to understand the roots of the Industrial Revolution, in an attempt to match the evolution of the European urban network, and the corresponding city-size distribution, over the period A.D. 1000-1850. It highlights the importance of agricultural trade across cities for the emergence of large manufacturing hubs.

3D probability tomography: theoretical developments and applications to high-resolution geophysical prospecting

The theory of the 3D multipole probability tomography method (3D GPT) to image source poles, dipoles, quadrupoles and octopoles, of a geophysical vector or scalar field dataset is developed. A geophysical dataset is assumed to be the response of an aggregation of poles, dipoles, quadrupoles and octopoles. These physical sources are used to reconstruct without a priori assumptions the most probable position and shape of the true geophysical buried sources, by determining the location of their centres and critical points of their boundaries, as corners, wedges and vertices. This theory, then, is adapted to the geoelectrical, gravity and self potential methods. A few synthetic examples using simple geometries and three field examples are discussed in order to demonstrate the notably enhanced resolution power of the new approach. At first, the application to a field example related to a dipole–dipole geoelectrical survey carried out in the archaeological park of Pompei is presented. The survey was finalised to recognize remains of the ancient Roman urban network including roads, squares and buildings, which were buried under the thick pyroclastic cover fallen during the 79 AD Vesuvius eruption. The revealed anomaly structures are ascribed to wellpreserved remnants of some aligned walls of Roman edifices, buried and partially destroyed by the 79 AD Vesuvius pyroclastic fall. Then, a field example related to a gravity survey carried out in the volcanic area of Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy) is presented, aimed at imaging as accurately as possible the differential mass density structure within the first few km of depth inside the volcanic apparatus. An assemblage of vertical prismatic blocks appears to be the most probable gravity model of the Etna apparatus within the first 5 km of depth below sea level. Finally, an experimental SP dataset collected in the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius volcanic district (Naples, Italy) is elaborated in order to define location and shape of the sources of two SP anomalies of opposite sign detected in the northwestern sector of the surveyed area. The modelled sources are interpreted as the polarization state induced by an intense hydrothermal convective flow mechanism within the volcanic apparatus, from the free surface down to about 3 km of depth b.s.l..

Design, development and guidance of the Airborne’s quadrotor

The main goal of the Airborne project is to develop, at technology readiness level 8 (TRL8), a few selected robotic aerial technologies for quick localization of victims by avalanches by equipping drones with two forefront sensors used in SAR operations in case of avalanches, namely the ARVA and RECCO. This thesis focuses on the design, development, and guidance of the TRL8 quadrotor developed during the project. We present and describe the design method that allowed us to obtain an EMI shielded UAV capable of integrating both RECCO and ARVA sensors. Besides, is presented the avionics and power train design and building procedure in order to obtain a modular UAV frame that can be easily carried by rescuers and achieves all the performance benchmarks of the project. Additionally, in addition to the onboard algorithms, a multivariate regressive convolutional neural network whose goal is the localization of the ARVA signal is presented. On guidance, the automatic flight procedure is described, and the onboard waypoint generator algorithm is presented. The goal of this algorithm is the generation and execution of an automatic grid pattern without the need to know the map in advance and without the support of a control ground station (CGS). Moreover, we present an iterative trajectory planner that does not need pre-knowledge of the map and uses Bézier curves to address optimal, dynamically feasible, safe, and re-plannable trajectories. The goal is to develop a method that allows local and fast replannings in case of an obstacle pop up or if some waypoints change. This makes the novel planner suitable to be applied in SAR operations. The introduction of the final version of the quadrotor is supported by internal flight tests and field tests performed in real operative scenarios by the Club Alpino Italiano (CAI).

Qualification of optical fiber sensors for the structural health monitoring of aerospace structures

In recent years, composite materials have revolutionized the design of many structures. Their superior mechanical properties and light weight make composites convenient over traditional metal structures for many applications. However, composite materials are susceptible to complex and challenging to predict damage behaviors due to their anisotropy nature. Therefore, structural Health Monitoring (SHM) can be a valuable tool to assess the damage and understand the physics underneath. Distributed Optical Fiber Sensors (DOFS) can be used to monitor several types of damage in composites. However, their implementation outside academia is still unsatisfactory. One of the hindrances is the lack of a rigorous methodology for uncertainty quantification, which is essential for the performance assessment of the monitoring system. The concept of Probability of Detection (POD) must function as the guiding light in this process. However, precautions must be taken since this tool was established for Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) rather than Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). In addition, although DOFS have been the object of numerous studies, a well-established POD methodology for their performance assessment is still missing. This thesis aims to develop a methodology to produce POD curves for DOFS in composite materials. The problem is analyzed considering several critical points, such as the strain transfer characterizing the DOFS and the development of an experimental and model-assisted methodology to understand the parameters that affect the DOFS performance.

Statistical learning of random probability measures

The study of random probability measures is a lively research topic that has attracted interest from different fields in recent years. In this thesis, we consider random probability measures in the context of Bayesian nonparametrics, where the law of a random probability measure is used as prior distribution, and in the context of distributional data analysis, where the goal is to perform inference given avsample from the law of a random probability measure. The contributions contained in this thesis can be subdivided according to three different topics: (i) the use of almost surely discrete repulsive random measures (i.e., whose support points are well separated) for Bayesian model-based clustering, (ii) the proposal of new laws for collections of random probability measures for Bayesian density estimation of partially exchangeable data subdivided into different groups, and (iii) the study of principal component analysis and regression models for probability distributions seen as elements of the 2-Wasserstein space. Specifically, for point (i) above we propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference, which sidesteps the need of split-merge reversible jump moves typically associated with poor performance, we propose a model for clustering high-dimensional data by introducing a novel class of anisotropic determinantal point processes, and study the distributional properties of the repulsive measures, shedding light on important theoretical results which enable more principled prior elicitation and more efficient posterior simulation algorithms. For point (ii) above, we consider several models suitable for clustering homogeneous populations, inducing spatial dependence across groups of data, extracting the characteristic traits common to all the data-groups, and propose a novel vector autoregressive model to study of growth curves of Singaporean kids. Finally, for point (iii), we propose a novel class of projected statistical methods for distributional data analysis for measures on the real line and on the unit-circle.

Analysis and prediction of fretting fatigue life.

Fretting fatigue is a fatigue damage process that occurs when two surfaces in contact with each other are subjected to relative micro-slip, causing a reduced fatigue life with respect to the plain fatigue case. Fretting has been now studied deeply for over 50 years, but still no univocal design approach has been universally accepted. This thesis presents a method for predicting the fretting fatigue life of materials based on the material specific fatigue parameters. To validate the method, a set of fretting fatigue experimental tests have been run, using a newly designed specimen. FE analyses of the tests were also run and the SWT parameter was retrieved and it was found to be useful to successfully identify which samples failed. Finally, S-N curves were retrieved by using two different fatigue life predicting methods (CoffinManson and Jahed-Varvani). The two different methods were compared with the experimental results and it was found that the Jahed-Varvani method gave accurate results in terms of fretting fatigue life.