Sviluppo di metodologie di localizzazione nel contesto del Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty

Since the first underground nuclear explosion, carried out in 1958, the analysis of seismic signals generated by these sources has allowed seismologists to refine the travel times of seismic waves through the Earth and to verify the accuracy of the location algorithms (the ground truth for these sources was often known). Long international negotiates have been devoted to limit the proliferation and testing of nuclear weapons. In particular the Treaty for the comprehensive nuclear test ban (CTBT), was opened to signatures in 1996, though, even if it has been signed by 178 States, has not yet entered into force, The Treaty underlines the fundamental role of the seismological observations to verify its compliance, by detecting and locating seismic events, and identifying the nature of their sources. A precise definition of the hypocentral parameters represents the first step to discriminate whether a given seismic event is natural or not. In case that a specific event is retained suspicious by the majority of the State Parties, the Treaty contains provisions for conducting an on-site inspection (OSI) in the area surrounding the epicenter of the event, located through the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the CTBT Organization. An OSI is supposed to include the use of passive seismic techniques in the area of the suspected clandestine underground nuclear test. In fact, high quality seismological systems are thought to be capable to detect and locate very weak aftershocks triggered by underground nuclear explosions in the first days or weeks following the test. This PhD thesis deals with the development of two different seismic location techniques: the first one, known as the double difference joint hypocenter determination (DDJHD) technique, is aimed at locating closely spaced events at a global scale. The locations obtained by this method are characterized by a high relative accuracy, although the absolute location of the whole cluster remains uncertain. We eliminate this problem introducing a priori information: the known location of a selected event. The second technique concerns the reliable estimates of back azimuth and apparent velocity of seismic waves from local events of very low magnitude recorded by a trypartite array at a very local scale. For the two above-mentioned techniques, we have used the crosscorrelation technique among digital waveforms in order to minimize the errors linked with incorrect phase picking. The cross-correlation method relies on the similarity between waveforms of a pair of events at the same station, at the global scale, and on the similarity between waveforms of the same event at two different sensors of the try-partite array, at the local scale. After preliminary tests on the reliability of our location techniques based on simulations, we have applied both methodologies to real seismic events. The DDJHD technique has been applied to a seismic sequence occurred in the Turkey-Iran border region, using the data recorded by the IMS. At the beginning, the algorithm was applied to the differences among the original arrival times of the P phases, so the cross-correlation was not used. We have obtained that the relevant geometrical spreading, noticeable in the standard locations (namely the locations produced by the analysts of the International Data Center (IDC) of the CTBT Organization, assumed as our reference), has been considerably reduced by the application of our technique. This is what we expected, since the methodology has been applied to a sequence of events for which we can suppose a real closeness among the hypocenters, belonging to the same seismic structure. Our results point out the main advantage of this methodology: the systematic errors affecting the arrival times have been removed or at least reduced. The introduction of the cross-correlation has not brought evident improvements to our results: the two sets of locations (without and with the application of the cross-correlation technique) are very similar to each other. This can be commented saying that the use of the crosscorrelation has not substantially improved the precision of the manual pickings. Probably the pickings reported by the IDC are good enough to make the random picking error less important than the systematic error on travel times. As a further justification for the scarce quality of the results given by the cross-correlation, it should be remarked that the events included in our data set don’t have generally a good signal to noise ratio (SNR): the selected sequence is composed of weak events ( magnitude 4 or smaller) and the signals are strongly attenuated because of the large distance between the stations and the hypocentral area. In the local scale, in addition to the cross-correlation, we have performed a signal interpolation in order to improve the time resolution. The algorithm so developed has been applied to the data collected during an experiment carried out in Israel between 1998 and 1999. The results pointed out the following relevant conclusions: a) it is necessary to correlate waveform segments corresponding to the same seismic phases; b) it is not essential to select the exact first arrivals; and c) relevant information can be also obtained from the maximum amplitude wavelet of the waveforms (particularly in bad SNR conditions). Another remarkable point of our procedure is that its application doesn’t demand a long time to process the data, and therefore the user can immediately check the results. During a field survey, such feature will make possible a quasi real-time check allowing the immediate optimization of the array geometry, if so suggested by the results at an early stage.

El Niño southern oscillation and its effect on fog oases along the Peruvian and Chilean coastal deserts

Fog oases, locally named Lomas, are distributed in a fragmented way along the western coast of Chile and Peru (South America) between ~6°S and 30°S following an altitudinal gradient determined by a fog layer. This fragmentation has been attributed to the hyper aridity of the desert. However, periodically climatic events influence the ‘normal seasonality’ of this ecosystem through a higher than average water input that triggers plant responses (e.g. primary productivity and phenology). The impact of the climatic oscillation may vary according to the season (wet/dry). This thesis evaluates the potential effect of climate oscillations, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), through the analysis of vegetation of this ecosystem following different approaches: Chapters two and three show the analysis of fog oasis along the Peruvian and Chilean deserts. The objectives are: 1) to explain the floristic connection of fog oases analysing their taxa composition differences and the phylogenetic affinities among them, 2) to explore the climate variables related to ENSO which likely affect fog production, and the responses of Lomas vegetation (composition, productivity, distribution) to climate patterns during ENSO events. Chapters four and five describe a fog-oasis in southern Peru during the 2008-2010 period. The objectives are: 3) to describe and create a new vegetation map of the Lomas vegetation using remote sensing analysis supported by field survey data, and 4) to identify the vegetation change during the dry season. The first part of our results show that: 1) there are three significantly different groups of Lomas (Northern Peru, Southern Peru, and Chile) with a significant phylogenetic divergence among them. The species composition reveals a latitudinal gradient of plant assemblages. The species origin, growth-forms typologies, and geographic position also reinforce the differences among groups. 2) Contradictory results have emerged from studies of low-cloud anomalies and the fog-collection during El Niño (EN). EN increases water availability in fog oases when fog should be less frequent due to the reduction of low-clouds amount and stratocumulus. Because a minor role of fog during EN is expected, it is likely that measurements of fog-water collection during EN are considering drizzle and fog at the same time. Although recent studies on fog oases have shown some relationship with the ENSO, responses of vegetation have been largely based on descriptive data, the absence of large temporal records limit the establishment of a direct relationship with climatic oscillations. The second part of the results show that: 3) five different classes of different spectral values correspond to the main land cover of Lomas using a Vegetation Index (VI). The study case is characterised by shrubs and trees with variable cover (dense, semi-dense and open). A secondary area is covered by small shrubs where the dominant tree species is not present. The cacti area and the old terraces with open vegetation were not identified with the VI. Agriculture is present in the area. Finally, 4) contrary to the dry season of 2008 and 2009 years, a higher VI was obtained during the dry season of 2010. The VI increased up to three times their average value, showing a clear spectral signal change, which coincided with the ENSO event of that period.

A panchromatic view of the evolution of supermassive black holes

This PhD Thesis is devoted to the accurate analysis of the physical properties of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) and the AGN/host-galaxy interplay. Due to the broad-band AGN emission (from radio to hard X-rays), a multi-wavelength approach is mandatory. Our research is carried out over the COSMOS field, within the context of the XMM-Newton wide-field survey. To date, the COSMOS field is a unique area for comprehensive multi-wavelength studies, allowing us to define a large and homogeneous sample of QSOs with a well-sampled spectral coverage and to keep selection effects under control. Moreover, the broad-band information contained in the COSMOS database is well-suited for a detailed analysis of AGN SEDs, bolometric luminosities and bolometric corrections. In order to investigate the nature of both obscured (Type-2) and unobscured (Type-1) AGN, the observational approach is complemented with a theoretical modelling of the AGN/galaxy co-evolution. The X-ray to optical properties of an X-ray selected Type-1 AGN sample are discussed in the first part. The relationship between X-ray and optical/UV luminosities, parametrized by the spectral index αox, provides a first indication about the nature of the central engine powering the AGN. Since a Type-1 AGN outshines the surrounding environment, it is extremely difficult to constrain the properties of its host-galaxy. Conversely, in Type-2 AGN the host-galaxy light is the dominant component of the optical/near-IR SEDs, severely affecting the recovery of the intrinsic AGN emission. Hence a multi-component SED-fitting code is developed to disentangle the emission of the stellar populationof the galaxy from that associated with mass accretion. Bolometric corrections, luminosities, stellar masses and star-formation rates, correlated with the morphology of Type-2 AGN hosts, are presented in the second part, while the final part concerns a physically-motivated model for the evolution of spheroidal galaxies with a central SMBH. The model is able to reproduce two important stages of galaxy evolution, namely the obscured cold-phase and the subsequent quiescent hot-phase.

Effetti della Salinizzazione sugli Invertebrati del suolo

Lo scopo di questa tesi è quello di valutare l'effetto della salinizzazione dei suoli sugli invertebrati edafici. Nell'ambito di questo obiettivo generale sono state effettuate due distinte attività di ricerca: una indagine sul campo e una serie di esperimenti di laboratorio. Lo studio sul campo è stato condotto nella Pineta di San Vitale (Ravenna, Italia). L'obiettivo specifico è stato quello di valutare la qualità biologica dei suoli attraverso l'analisi del popolamento dei microartropodi edafici, in relazione alla diversità del suolo e in particolare alla salinizzazione. La qualità biologica dei suoli è stata valutata mediante l'indice QBS-ar. La Pineta è stata campionata nella zona Est, più colpita da intrusione salina e nella zona Ovest dove questo fenomeno è meno evidente. I campionamenti sono stati effettuati in primavera ed estate. I risultati confermano che le caratteristiche chimico-fisiche si modificano in base al gradiente sommità dunali-depressioni interdunali. Per quanto riguarda il popolamento dei microartropodi alcune caratteristiche sono comuni alla maggior parte delle stazioni con lo stesso pedotipo. Non è stato evidenziato alcuno stress sui popolamenti attribuibule alla salinizzazione. Nel complesso, i valori di QBS-ar sono piuttosto elevati. Gli esperimenti di laboratorio sono stati finalizzata alla valutazione degli effetti combinati della salinità del suolo e della contaminazione da pesticidi (chlorpyrifos) sul lombrico Eisenia andrei. Nel complesso, i risultati indicano che effetti avversi sui lombrichi sono possibili a livelli di salinizzazione dei suoli ancora compatibili a concentrazioni di chlorpyrifos che sono piuttosto alte in confronto con i tipici risultati di campo, ma ancora compatibili con l'uso consigliato.

Quality assessment of a landslide inventory map and its application to land‐use planning. A case study in the Northern Apennines (Emilia‐Romagna region, Italy)

Landslide hazard and risk are growing as a consequence of climate change and demographic pressure. Land‐use planning represents a powerful tool to manage this socio‐economic problem and build sustainable and landslide resilient communities. Landslide inventory maps are a cornerstone of land‐use planning and, consequently, their quality assessment represents a burning issue. This work aimed to define the quality parameters of a landslide inventory and assess its spatial and temporal accuracy with regard to its possible applications to land‐use planning. In this sense, I proceeded according to a two‐steps approach. An overall assessment of the accuracy of data geographic positioning was performed on four case study sites located in the Italian Northern Apennines. The quantification of the overall spatial and temporal accuracy, instead, focused on the Dorgola Valley (Province of Reggio Emilia). The assessment of spatial accuracy involved a comparison between remotely sensed and field survey data, as well as an innovative fuzzylike analysis of a multi‐temporal landslide inventory map. Conversely, long‐ and short‐term landslide temporal persistence was appraised over a period of 60 years with the aid of 18 remotely sensed image sets. These results were eventually compared with the current Territorial Plan for Provincial Coordination (PTCP) of the Province of Reggio Emilia. The outcome of this work suggested that geomorphologically detected and mapped landslides are a significant approximation of a more complex reality. In order to convey to the end‐users this intrinsic uncertainty, a new form of cartographic representation is needed. In this sense, a fuzzy raster landslide map may be an option. With regard to land‐use planning, landslide inventory maps, if appropriately updated, confirmed to be essential decision‐support tools. This research, however, proved that their spatial and temporal uncertainty discourages any direct use as zoning maps, especially when zoning itself is associated to statutory or advisory regulations.

Lateral spreading and associated slope processes in fractured rock slabs

Landslides of the lateral spreading type, involving brittle geological units overlying ductile terrains, are a common occurrence in the sandstone and limestone plateaux of the northern Apennines of Italy. These instability phenomena can become particularly risky, when historical towns and cultural heritage sites built on the top of them are endangered. Neverthless, the mechanisms controlling the developing of related instabilities, i.e. toppling and rock falls, at the edges of rock plateaux are not fully understood yet. In addition, the groundwater flow path developing at the contact between the more permeable units, i.e. the jointed rock slab, and the relatively impermeable clay-rich units have not been already studied in details, even if they may play a role in this kind of instability processes, acting as eventual predisposing and/or triggering factors. Field survey, Terrestrial Laser Scanner and Close Range Photogrammetry techniques, laboratory tests on the involved materials, hydrogeological monitoring and modelling, displacements evaluation and stability analysis through continuum and discontinuum numerical codes have been performed on the San Leo case study, with the aim to bring further insights for the understanding and the assessment of the slope processes taking place in this geological context. The current research permitted to relate the aquifer behaviour of the rocky slab to slope instability processes. The aquifer hosted in the fractured slab leads to the development of perennial and ephemeral springs at the contact between the two units. The related piping erosion phenomena, together with slope processes in the clay-shales led to the progressive undermining of the slab. The cliff becomes progressively unstable due to undermining and undergoes large-scale landslides due to fall or topple.

Very Long Baseline Interferometry in Italy Wide-field VLBI imaging and astrometry and prospects for an Italian VLBI network including the Sardinia Radio Telescope

In this thesis the use of widefield imaging techniques and VLBI observations with a limited number of antennas are explored. I present techniques to efficiently and accurately image extremely large UV datasets. Very large VLBI datasets must be reduced into multiple, smaller datasets if today’s imaging algorithms are to be used to image them. I present a procedure for accurately shifting the phase centre of a visibility dataset. This procedure has been thoroughly tested and found to be almost two orders of magnitude more accurate than existing techniques. Errors have been found at the level of one part in 1.1 million. These are unlikely to be measurable except in the very largest UV datasets. Results of a four-station VLBI observation of a field containing multiple sources are presented. A 13 gigapixel image was constructed to search for sources across the entire primary beam of the array by generating over 700 smaller UV datasets. The source 1320+299A was detected and its astrometric position with respect to the calibrator J1329+3154 is presented. Various techniques for phase calibration and imaging across this field are explored including using the detected source as an in-beam calibrator and peeling of distant confusing sources from VLBI visibility datasets. A range of issues pertaining to wide-field VLBI have been explored including; parameterising the wide-field performance of VLBI arrays; estimating the sensitivity across the primary beam both for homogeneous and heterogeneous arrays; applying techniques such as mosaicing and primary beam correction to VLBI observations; quantifying the effects of time-average and bandwidth smearing; and calibration and imaging of wide-field VLBI datasets. The performance of a computer cluster at the Istituto di Radioastronomia in Bologna has been characterised with regard to its ability to correlate using the DiFX software correlator. Using existing software it was possible to characterise the network speed particularly for MPI applications. The capabilities of the DiFX software correlator, running on this cluster, were measured for a range of observation parameters and were shown to be commensurate with the generic performance parameters measured. The feasibility of an Italian VLBI array has been explored, with discussion of the infrastructure required, the performance of such an array, possible collaborations, and science which could be achieved. Results from a 22 GHz calibrator survey are also presented. 21 out of 33 sources were detected on a single baseline between two Italian antennas (Medicina to Noto). The results and discussions presented in this thesis suggest that wide-field VLBI is a technique whose time has finally come. Prospects for exciting new science are discussed in the final chapter.

A multifrequency study of the Lockman Hole region: preparing for a LOFAR deep survey

In this thesis, we have presented two deep 1.4 GHz and 345 MHz overlapping surveys of the Lockman Hole field taken with the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope. We extracted a catalogue of ~6000 radio sources from the 1.4 GHz mosaic down to a flux limit of ~55 μJy and a catalogue of 334 radio sources down to a flux limit of ~4 mJy from the inner 7 sq. degree region of the 345 MHz image. The extracted catalogues were used to derive the source number counts at 1.4 GHz and at 345 MHz. The source counts were found to be fully consistent with previous determinations. In particular the 1.4 GHz source counts derived by the present sample provide one of the most statistically robust determinations in the flux range 0.1 < S < 1 mJy. During the commissioning program of the LOFAR telescope, the Lockman Hole field was observed at 58 MHz and 150 MHz. The 150 MHz LOFAR observation is particularly relevant as it allowed us to obtain the first LOFAR flux calibrated high resolution image of a deep field. From this image we extracted a preliminary source catalogue down to a flux limit of ~15 mJy (~10σ), that can be considered complete down to 20‒30 mJy. A spectral index study of the mJy sources in the Lockman Hole region, was performed using the available catalogues ( 1.4 GHz, 345 MHz and 150 MHz) and a deep 610 MHz source catalogue available from the literature (Garn et al. 2008, 2010).

Multilevel Analysis in Household Survey: An Application to Health Condition Data

The aim of this thesis is to apply multilevel regression model in context of household surveys. Hierarchical structure in this type of data is characterized by many small groups. In last years comparative and multilevel analysis in the field of perceived health have grown in size. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a multilevel analysis with three level of hierarchy for Physical Component Summary outcome to: evaluate magnitude of within and between variance at each level (individual, household and municipality); explore which covariates affect on perceived physical health at each level; compare model-based and design-based approach in order to establish informativeness of sampling design; estimate a quantile regression for hierarchical data. The target population are the Italian residents aged 18 years and older. Our study shows a high degree of homogeneity within level 1 units belonging from the same group, with an intraclass correlation of 27% in a level-2 null model. Almost all variance is explained by level 1 covariates. In fact, in our model the explanatory variables having more impact on the outcome are disability, unable to work, age and chronic diseases (18 pathologies). An additional analysis are performed by using novel procedure of analysis :"Linear Quantile Mixed Model", named "Multilevel Linear Quantile Regression", estimate. This give us the possibility to describe more generally the conditional distribution of the response through the estimation of its quantiles, while accounting for the dependence among the observations. This has represented a great advantage of our models with respect to classic multilevel regression. The median regression with random effects reveals to be more efficient than the mean regression in representation of the outcome central tendency. A more detailed analysis of the conditional distribution of the response on other quantiles highlighted a differential effect of some covariate along the distribution.

The J1030 field: a new window on early large scale structures and faint radio-galaxy populations

The correlations between the evolution of the Super Massive Black Holes (SMBHs) and their host galaxies suggests that the SMBH accretion on sub-pc scales (active galactice nuclei, AGN) is linked to the building of the galaxy over kpc scales, through the so called AGN feedback. Most of the galaxy assembly occurs in overdense large scale structures (LSSs). AGN residing in powerful sources in LSSs, such as the proto-brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs), can affect the evolution of the surrounding intra-cluster medium (ICM) and nearby galaxies. Among distant AGN, high-redshift radio-galaxies (HzRGs) are found to be excellent BCG progenitor candidates. In this Thesis we analyze novel interferometric observations of the so-called "J1030" field centered around the z = 6.3 SDSS Quasar J1030+0524, carried out with the Atacama large (sub-)millimetre array (ALMA) and the Jansky very large array (JVLA). This field host a LSS assembling around a powerful HzRG at z = 1.7 that shows evidence of positive AGN feedback in heating the surrounding ICM and promoting star-formation in multiple galaxies at hundreds kpc distances. We report the detection of gas-rich members of the LSS, including the HzRG. We showed that the LSS is going to evolve into a local massive cluster and the HzRG is the proto-BCG. we unveiled signatures of the proto-BCG's interaction with the surrounding ICM, strengthening the positive AGN feedback scenario. From the JVLA observations of the "J1030" we extracted one of the deepest extra-galactic radio surveys to date (~12.5 uJy at 5 sigma). Exploiting the synergy with the X-ray deep survey (~500 ks) we investigated the relation of the X-ray/radio emission of a X-ray-selected sample, unveiling that the radio emission is powered by different processes (star-formation and AGN), and that AGN-driven sample is mostly composed by radio-quiet objects that display a significant X-ray/radio correlation.