Sorveglianza dell'influenza aviare: studio di un sistema di rilevazione precoce della circolazione virale in popolazioni di volatili selvatici

The emergency of infection by highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) subtype H5N1 has focused the attention of the world scientific community, requiring the prompt provision of effective control systems for early detection of the circulation of low pathogenic influenza H5 viruses (LPAI) in populations of wild birds to prevent outbreaks of highly pathogenic (HPAI) in populations of domestic birds with possible transmission to humans. The project stems from the aim to provide, through a preliminary analysis of data obtained from surveillance in Italy and Europe, a preliminary study about the virus detection rates and the development of mathematical models, an objective assessment of the effectiveness of avian influenza surveillance systems in wild bird populations, and to point out guidelines to support the planning process of the sampling activities. The results obtained from the statistical processing quantify the sampling effort in terms of time and sample size required, and simulating different epidemiological scenarios identify active surveillance as the most suitable for endemic LPAI infection monitoring in wild waterfowl, and passive surveillance as the only really effective tool in early detecting HPAI H5N1 circulation in wild populations. Given the lack of relevant information on H5N1 epidemiology, and the actual finantial and logistic constraints, an approach that makes use of statistical tools to evaluate and predict monitoring activities effectiveness proves to be of primary importance to direct decision-making and make the best use of available resources.

Epidemiological and functional characterization of Streptococcus pneumoniae pili

Streptococcus pneumoniae is an important life threatening human pathogen causing agent of invasive diseases such as otitis media, pneumonia, sepsis and meningitis, but is also a common inhabitant of the respiratory tract of children and healthy adults. Likewise most streptococci, S. pneumoniae decorates its surface with adhesive pili, composed of covalently linked subunits and involved in the attachment to epithelial cells and virulence. The pneumococcal pili are encoded by two genomic regions, pilus islet 1 (PI-1), and pilus islet-2 (PI-2), which are present in about 30% and 16% of the pneumococcal strains, respectively. PI-1 exists in three clonally related variants, whereas PI-2 is highly conserved. The presence of the islets does not correlate with the serotype of the strains, but with the genotype (as determined by Multi Locus Sequence Typing). The prevalence of PI-1 and PI-2 positive strains is similar in isolates from invasive disease and carriage. To better dissect a possible association between PIs presence and disease we evaluated the distribution of the two PIs in a panel of 113 acute otitis media (AOM) clinical isolates from Israel. PI-1 was present in 30.1% (N=34) of the isolates tested, and PI-2 in 7% (N=8). We found that 50% of the PI-1 positive isolates belonged to the international clones Spain9V-3 (ST156) and Taiwan19F-14 (ST236), and that PI-2 was not present in the absence of Pl-1. In conclusion, there was no correlation between PIs presence and AOM, and, in general, the observed differences in PIs prevalence are strictly dependent upon regional differences in the distribution of the clones. Finally, in the AOM collection the prevalence of PI-1 was higher among antibiotic resistant isolates, confirming previous indications obtained by the in silico analysis of the MLST database collection. Since the pilus-1 subunits were shown to confer protection in mouse models of infection both in active and passive immunization studies, and were regarded as potential candidates for a new generation of protein-based vaccines, the functional characterization was mainly focused on S. pneumoniae pilus -1 components. The pneumococcal pilus-1 is composed of three subunits, RrgA, RrgB and RrgC, each stabilized by intra-molecular isopeptide bonds and covalently polymerized by means of inter-molecular isopeptide bonds to form an extended fibre. The pilus shaft is a multimeric structure mainly composed by the RrgB backbone subunit. The minor ancillary proteins are located at the tip and at the base of the pilus, where they have been proposed to act as the major adhesin (RrgA) and as the pilus anchor (RrgC), respectively. RrgA is protective in in vivo mouse models, and exists in two variants (clades I and II). Mapping of the sequence variability onto the RrgA structure predicted from X-ray data showed that the diversity was restricted to the “head” of the protein, which contains the putative binding domains, whereas the elongated “stalk” was mostly conserved. To investigate whether this variability could influence the adhesive capacity of RrgA and to map the regions important for binding, two full-length protein variants and three recombinant RrgA portions were tested for adhesion to lung epithelial cells and to purified extracellular matrix (ECM) components. The two RrgA variants displayed similar binding abilities, whereas none of the recombinant fragments adhered at levels comparable to those of the full-length protein, suggesting that proper folding and structural arrangement are crucial to retain protein functionality. Furthermore, the two RrgA variants were shown to be cross-reactive in vitro and cross-protective in vivo in a murine model of passive immunization. Taken together, these data indicate that the region implicated in adhesion and the functional epitopes responsible for the protective ability of RrgA may be conserved and that the considerable level of variation found within the “head” domain of RrgA may have been generated by immunologic pressure without impairing the functional integrity of the pilus.

Antiepileptic drugs and pregnancy. Population based pharmaco-epidemiological study on prescription patterns, pregnancy outcome and foetal health

Aims of the study: To assess the prevalence of Antiepileptic Drug (AED) exposure in pregnant women with or without epilepsy and the comparative risk of terminations of pregnancy (TOPs), spontaneous abortions, stillbirth, major congenital malformations (MCMs) and foetal growth retardation (FGR) following intrauterine AED exposure in the Emilia Romagna region (RER), Northern Italy (4 million inhabitants). Methods: Data were obtained from official regional registries: Certificate of Delivery Assistance, Hospital Discharge Card, reimbursed prescription databases and Registry of Congenital Malformations. We identified all the deliveries, hospitalized abortions and MCMs occurred between January 2009 and December 2011. Results: We identified 145,243 pregnancies: 111,284 deliveries (112,845 live births and 279 stillbirths), 16408 spontaneous abortions and 17551 TOPs. Six hundred and eleven pregnancies (0.42% 95% Cl: 0.39-0.46) were exposed to AEDs. Twenty-one per cent of pregnancies ended in TOP in the AED group vs 12% in the non-exposed (OR:2.24; CI 1.41-3.56). The rate of spontaneous abortions and stillbirth was comparable in the two groups. Three hundred fifty-three babies (0.31%, 95% CI: 0.28-0.35) were exposed to AEDs during the first trimester. The rate of MCMs was 2.3% in the AED group (2.2% in babies exposed to monotherapy and 3.1% in babies exposed to polytherapy) vs 2.0% in the non-exposed. The risk of FGR was 12.7 % in the exposed group compared to 10% in the non-exposed. Discussion and Conclusion: The prevalence of AED exposure in pregnancy in the RER was 0.42%. The rate of MCMs in children exposed to AEDs in utero was almost superimposable to the one of the non-exposed, however polytherapy carried a slightly increased risk . The rate of TOPs was significantly higher in the exposed women. Further studies are needed to clarify whether this high rate reflects a higher rate of MCMs detected prenatally or other more elusive reasons.

Cambiamenti epidemiologici dell'epatocarcinoma agli inizi del xxi secolo: Dal ruolo emergente delle malattie dismetaboliche quali fattori eziopatogemetici alla necessita' di revisione del sistema di stadiaziome

Introduzione e scopo: la rapida diffusione delle malattie dismetaboliche sta modificando l’epidemiologia dell’epatocarcinoma (HCC). Scopo della tesi è, attraverso quattro studi, analizzare l’impatto di questi cambiamenti nella gestione clinica del paziente affetto da HCC. Materiali e metodi: quattro studi di coorte, condotti con analisi retrospettiva del database ITA.LI.CA. Studio 1:3658 pazienti arruolati tra il 01-01-2001 ed il 31-12-2012 suddivisi in base alla data di diagnosi:2001-2004 (954 pazienti), 2005-2008 (1122 pazienti), 2009-2012 (1582 pazienti). Studio 2:analisi comparativa tra 756 pazienti con HCC-NAFLD e 611 pazienti con HCC-HCV. Studio 3:proposta di quattro modelli alternativi al BCLC originale con validazione di una proposta di sottostadiazione dell’intermedio, considerando 2606 pazienti arruolati tra il 01-01-2000 e il 31-12-2012 e riallocati secondo gradi diversi di perfomance status (PS). Studio 4:analisi di 696 pazienti con HCC in stadio intermedio diagnosticato dopo il 1999 stratificati per trattamento. Risultati: studio 1:progressivo aumento dell’età alla diagnosi e delle eziologie dismetaboliche; più frequente esordio dell’HCC in stadio precoce e con funzione epatica più conservata; aumento della sopravvivenza dopo il 2008. Studio 2:i pazienti con HCC-NAFLD mostrano più frequentemente un tumore infiltrativo diagnosticato fuori dai programmi di sorveglianza, con prognosi peggiore rispetto ai pazienti HCC-HCV. Questa differenza di sopravvivenza si elimina rimuovendo i fattori di confondimento attraverso propensity analysis. Studio 3:il PS1 non è un predittore indipendente di sopravvivenza. Il modello 4 (considerando PS1=PS0 e con la sottostadiazione proposta), ha la migliore capacità discriminativa. Studio 4:i trattamenti curativi riducono la mortalità più della TACE, anche dopo propensity analysis. Conclusioni: l’aumento delle patologie dismetaboliche comporterà diagnosi di malattia ad uno stadio più avanzato, quando sintomatica, rendendo necessario stabilire un programma di sorveglianza. Inoltre per una migliore stratificazione e gestione dei pazienti, bisogna riconsiderare il ruolo del PS ed offrire un ventaglio di opzioni terapeutiche anche per il pazienti in stadio intermedio.