Towards Rapid Environmental Assessment and Coastal Forecasting in the Northern Adriatic Sea

A new Coastal Rapid Environmental Assessment (CREA) strategy has been developed and successfully applied to the Northern Adriatic Sea. CREA strategy exploits the recent advent of operational oceanography to establish a CREA system based on an operational regional forecasting system and coastal monitoring networks of opportunity. The methodology wishes to initialize a coastal high resolution model, nested within the regional forecasting system, blending the large scale parent model fields with the available coastal observations to generate the requisite field estimates. CREA modeling system consists of a high resolution, O(800m), Adriatic SHELF model (ASHELF) implemented into the Northern Adriatic basin and nested within the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) (Oddo et al. 2006). The observational system is composed by the coastal networks established in the framework of ADRICOSM (ADRiatic sea integrated COastal areaS and river basin Managment system) Pilot Project. An assimilation technique exerts a correction of the initial field provided by AFS on the basis of the available observations. The blending of the two data sets has been carried out through a multi-scale optimal interpolation technique developed by Mariano and Brown (1992). Two CREA weekly exercises have been conducted: the first, at the beginning of May (spring experiment); the second in middle August (summer experiment). The weeks have been chosen looking at the availability of all coastal observations in the initialization day and one week later to validate model results, verifying our predictive skills. ASHELF spin up time has been investigated too, through a dedicated experiment, in order to obtain the maximum forecast accuracy within a minimum time. Energetic evaluations show that for the Northern Adriatic Sea and for the forcing applied, a spin-up period of one week allows ASHELF to generate new circulation features enabled by the increased resolution and its total kinetic energy to establish a new dynamical balance. CREA results, evaluated by mean of standard statistics between ASHELF and coastal CTDs, show improvement deriving from the initialization technique and a good model performance in the coastal areas of the Northern Adriatic basin, characterized by a shallow and wide continental shelf subject to substantial freshwater influence from rivers. Results demonstrate the feasibility of our CREA strategy to support coastal zone management and wish an additional establishment of operational coastal monitoring activities to advance it.

Environmental Assessment of the Agricultural Sector

One of the main problems recognized in sustainable development goals and sustainable agricultural objectives is Climate change. Farming contributes significantly to the overall Greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, which is approximately 10-12 percent of total GHG emissions, but when taking in consideration also land-use change, including deforestation driven by agricultural expansion for food, fiber and fuel the number rises to approximately 30 percent (Smith et. al., 2007). There are two distinct methodological approaches for environmental impact assessment; Life Cycle Assessment (a bottom up approach) and Input-Output Analysis (a top down approach). The two methodologies differ significantly but there is not an immediate choice between them if the scope of the study is on a sectorial level. Instead, as an alternative, hybrid approaches which combine these two approaches have emerged. The aim of this study is to analyze in a greater detail the agricultural sectors contribution to Climate change caused by the consumption of food products. Hence, to identify the food products that have the greatest impact through their life cycle, identifying their hotspots and evaluating the mitigation possibilities for the same. At the same time evaluating methodological possibilities and models to be applied for this purpose both on a EU level and on a country level (Italy).

Development of quantitative methods for sustainability assessment in process industry

The increasing aversion to technological risks of the society requires the development of inherently safer and environmentally friendlier processes, besides assuring the economic competitiveness of the industrial activities. The different forms of impact (e.g. environmental, economic and societal) are frequently characterized by conflicting reduction strategies and must be holistically taken into account in order to identify the optimal solutions in process design. Though the literature reports an extensive discussion of strategies and specific principles, quantitative assessment tools are required to identify the marginal improvements in alternative design options, to allow the trade-off among contradictory aspects and to prevent the “risk shift”. In the present work a set of integrated quantitative tools for design assessment (i.e. design support system) was developed. The tools were specifically dedicated to the implementation of sustainability and inherent safety in process and plant design activities, with respect to chemical and industrial processes in which substances dangerous for humans and environment are used or stored. The tools were mainly devoted to the application in the stages of “conceptual” and “basic design”, when the project is still open to changes (due to the large number of degrees of freedom) which may comprise of strategies to improve sustainability and inherent safety. The set of developed tools includes different phases of the design activities, all through the lifecycle of a project (inventories, process flow diagrams, preliminary plant lay-out plans). The development of such tools gives a substantial contribution to fill the present gap in the availability of sound supports for implementing safety and sustainability in early phases of process design. The proposed decision support system was based on the development of a set of leading key performance indicators (KPIs), which ensure the assessment of economic, societal and environmental impacts of a process (i.e. sustainability profile). The KPIs were based on impact models (also complex), but are easy and swift in the practical application. Their full evaluation is possible also starting from the limited data available during early process design. Innovative reference criteria were developed to compare and aggregate the KPIs on the basis of the actual sitespecific impact burden and the sustainability policy. Particular attention was devoted to the development of reliable criteria and tools for the assessment of inherent safety in different stages of the project lifecycle. The assessment follows an innovative approach in the analysis of inherent safety, based on both the calculation of the expected consequences of potential accidents and the evaluation of the hazards related to equipment. The methodology overrides several problems present in the previous methods proposed for quantitative inherent safety assessment (use of arbitrary indexes, subjective judgement, build-in assumptions, etc.). A specific procedure was defined for the assessment of the hazards related to the formations of undesired substances in chemical systems undergoing “out of control” conditions. In the assessment of layout plans, “ad hoc” tools were developed to account for the hazard of domino escalations and the safety economics. The effectiveness and value of the tools were demonstrated by the application to a large number of case studies concerning different kinds of design activities (choice of materials, design of the process, of the plant, of the layout) and different types of processes/plants (chemical industry, storage facilities, waste disposal). An experimental survey (analysis of the thermal stability of isomers of nitrobenzaldehyde) provided the input data necessary to demonstrate the method for inherent safety assessment of materials.

From fall-risk assessment to fall detection: inertial sensors in the clinical routine and daily life

Falls are caused by complex interaction between multiple risk factors which may be modified by age, disease and environment. A variety of methods and tools for fall risk assessment have been proposed, but none of which is universally accepted. Existing tools are generally not capable of providing a quantitative predictive assessment of fall risk. The need for objective, cost-effective and clinically applicable methods would enable quantitative assessment of fall risk on a subject-specific basis. Tracking objectively falls risk could provide timely feedback about the effectiveness of administered interventions enabling intervention strategies to be modified or changed if found to be ineffective. Moreover, some of the fundamental factors leading to falls and what actually happens during a fall remain unclear. Objectively documented and measured falls are needed to improve knowledge of fall in order to develop more effective prevention strategies and prolong independent living. In the last decade, several research groups have developed sensor-based automatic or semi-automatic fall risk assessment tools using wearable inertial sensors. This approach may also serve to detect falls. At the moment, i) several fall-risk assessment studies based on inertial sensors, even if promising, lack of a biomechanical model-based approach which could provide accurate and more detailed measurements of interests (e.g., joint moments, forces) and ii) the number of published real-world fall data of older people in a real-world environment is minimal since most authors have used simulations with healthy volunteers as a surrogate for real-world falls. With these limitations in mind, this thesis aims i) to suggest a novel method for the kinematics and dynamics evaluation of functional motor tasks, often used in clinics for the fall-risk evaluation, through a body sensor network and a biomechanical approach and ii) to define the guidelines for a fall detection algorithm based on a real-world fall database availability.

The Law and Economics of Eco-labels

Eco-labels and certification are one of the many environmental policy tools that have been under scrutiny in recent years. This is because the damages of environmental degradation are becoming more apparent over time. Hence there is a pressure to come up with tools that help solve even small parts of the problem. Eco-labels have been around for over 30 years. However the market, the environment and eco-labels have changed drastically during this period. Moreover, in the last 5 years there has been a sudden increase in eco-labels making them more visible in the market and to the average consumer. All this has made evident that little is known about the effectiveness of eco-labels as environmental policy tools. Hence, there is a call to find answers regarding the actual effects of eco-labels on the market and on the environment. While this work cannot address whether eco-labels have an environmental impact it addresses the effects of eco-labels on the markets. Moreover, this work aimed to find the role of law in eco-labelling. In addition, it aims to find a legal solution that would improve the performance of eco-labelling and certification.

Il risparmio delle risorse alla scala abitativa e di insediamento. Tecnologie non convenzionali e valutazione ambientale attraverso metodologia LCA.

Nel corso del mio lavoro di ricerca mi sono occupata di identificare strategie che permettano il risparmio delle risorse a livello edilizio e di approfondire un metodo per la valutazione ambientale di tali strategie. La convinzione di fondo è che bisogna uscire da una visione antropocentrica in cui tutto ciò che ci circonda è merce e materiale a disposizione dell’uomo, per entrare in una nuova era di equilibrio tra le risorse della terra e le attività che l’uomo esercita sul pianeta. Ho quindi affrontato il tema dell’edilizia responsabile approfondendo l’ambito delle costruzioni in balle di paglia e terra. Sono convinta che l’edilizia industriale abbia un futuro molto breve davanti a sé e lascerà inevitabilmente spazio a tecniche non convenzionali che coinvolgono materiali di semplice reperimento e posa in opera. Sono altresì convinta che il solo utilizzo di materiali naturali non sia garanzia di danni ridotti sull’ecosistema. Allo stesso tempo ritengo che una mera certificazione energetica non sia sinonimo di sostenibilità. Per questo motivo ho valutato le tecnologie non convenzionali con approccio LCA (Life Cycle Assessment), approfondendo gli impatti legati alla produzione, ai trasporti degli stessi, alla tipologia di messa in opera, e ai loro possibili scenari di fine vita. Inoltre ho approfondito il metodo di calcolo dei danni IMPACT, identificando una carenza nel sistema, che non prevede una categoria di danno legata alle modifiche delle condizioni idrogeologiche del terreno. La ricerca si è svolta attraverso attività pratiche e sperimentali in cantieri di edilizia non convenzionale e attività di ricerca e studio sull’LCA presso l’Enea di Bologna (Ing. Paolo Neri).

Sustainability indicators for environmental management and decision making

The general objective of this research is to explore theories and methodologies of sustainability indicators, environmental management and decision making disciplines with the operational purpose of producing scientific, robust and relevant information for supporting system understanding and decision making in real case studies. Several tools have been applied in order to increase the understanding of socio-ecological systems as well as providing relevant information on the choice between alternatives. These tools have always been applied having in mind the complexity of the issues and the uncertainty tied to the partial knowledge of the systems under study. Two case studies with specific application to performances measurement (environmental performances in the case of the K8 approach and sustainable development performances in the case of the EU Sustainable Development Strategy) and a case study about the selection of sustainable development indicators amongst Municipalities in Scotland, are discussed in the first part of the work. In the second part of the work, the common denominator among subjects consists in the application of spatial indices and indicators to address operational problems in land use management within the territory of the Ravenna province (Italy). The main conclusion of the thesis is that a ‘perfect’ methodological approach which always produces the best results in assessing sustainability performances does not exist. Rather, there is a pool of correct approaches answering different evaluation questions, to be used when methodologies fit the purpose of the analysis. For this reason, methodological limits and conceptual assumptions as well as consistency and transparency of the assessment, become the key factors for assessing the quality of the analysis.

Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Application of innovative methods of source apportionment in air contamination assessment

In this work, new tools in atmospheric pollutant sampling and analysis were applied in order to go deeper in source apportionment study. The project was developed mainly by the study of atmospheric emission sources in a suburban area influenced by a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI), a medium-sized coastal tourist town and a motorway. Two main research lines were followed. For what concerns the first line, the potentiality of the use of PM samplers coupled with a wind select sensor was assessed. Results showed that they may be a valid support in source apportionment studies. However, meteorological and territorial conditions could strongly affect the results. Moreover, new markers were investigated, particularly focusing on the processes of biomass burning. OC revealed a good biomass combustion process indicator, as well as all determined organic compounds. Among metals, lead and aluminium are well related to the biomass combustion. Surprisingly PM was not enriched of potassium during bonfire event. The second research line consists on the application of Positive Matrix factorization (PMF), a new statistical tool in data analysis. This new technique was applied to datasets which refer to different time resolution data. PMF application to atmospheric deposition fluxes identified six main sources affecting the area. The incinerator’s relative contribution seemed to be negligible. PMF analysis was then applied to PM2.5 collected with samplers coupled with a wind select sensor. The higher number of determined environmental indicators allowed to obtain more detailed results on the sources affecting the area. Vehicular traffic revealed the source of greatest concern for the study area. Also in this case, incinerator’s relative contribution seemed to be negligible. Finally, the application of PMF analysis to hourly aerosol data demonstrated that the higher the temporal resolution of the data was, the more the source profiles were close to the real one.

Experimental assessment of environmental decay effects in masonry via non destructive diagnostic techniques and mechanical tests

Environmental decay in porous masonry materials, such as brick and mortar, is a widespread problem concerning both new and historic masonry structures. The decay mechanisms are quite complex dependng upon several interconnected parameters and from the interaction with the specific micro-climate. Materials undergo aesthetical and substantial changes in character but while many studies have been carried out, the mechanical aspect has been largely understudied while it bears true importance from the structural viewpoint. A quantitative assessment of the masonry material degradation and how it affects the load-bearing capacity of masonry structures appears missing. The research work carried out, limiting the attention to brick masonry addresses this issue through an experimental laboratory approach via different integrated testing procedures, both non-destructive and mechanical, together with monitoring methods. Attention was focused on transport of moisture and salts and on the damaging effects caused by the crystallization of two different salts, sodium chloride and sodium sulphate. Many series of masonry specimens, very different in size and purposes were used to track the damage process since its beginning and to monitor its evolution over a number of years Athe same time suitable testing techniques, non-destructive, mini-invasive, analytical, of monitoring, were validated for these purposes. The specimens were exposed to different aggressive agents (in terms of type of salt, of brine concentration, of artificial vs. open-air natural ageing, …), tested by different means (qualitative vs. quantitative, non destructive vs. mechanical testing, punctual vs. wide areas, …), and had different size (1-, 2-, 3-header thick walls, full-scale walls vs. small size specimens, brick columns and triplets vs. small walls, masonry specimens vs. single units of brick and mortar prisms, …). Different advanced testing methods and novel monitoring techniques were applied in an integrated holistic approach, for quantitative assessment of masonry health state.

Assessment and optimization of chemical industrial processes from a life cycle perspective

During the PhD program in chemistry, curriculum in environmental chemistry, at the University of Bologna the sustainability of industry was investigated through the application of the LCA methodology. The efforts were focused on the chemical sector in order to investigate reactions dealing with the Green Chemistry and Green Engineering principles, evaluating their sustainability in comparison with traditional pathways by a life cycle perspective. The environmental benefits associated with a reduction in the synthesis steps and the use of renewable feedstock were assessed through a holistic approach selecting two case studies with high relevance from an industrial point of view: the synthesis of acrylonitrile and the production of acrolein. The current approach wants to represent a standardized application of LCA methodology to the chemical sector, which could be extended to several case studies, and also an improvement of the current databases, since the lack of data to fill the inventories of the chemical productions represent a huge limitation, difficult to overcome and that can affects negatively the results of the studies. Results emerged from the analyses confirms that the sustainability in the chemical sector should be evaluated from a cradle-to-gate approach, considering all the stages and flows involved in each pathways in order to avoid shifting the environmental burdens from a steps to another. Moreover, if possible, LCA should be supported by other tools able to investigate the other two dimensions of sustainability represented by the social and economic issues.

A Web GIS Decision Support System For Coastal Risk Assessment and Mitigation Planning

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas around the world, billions of dollars in damage to property and infrastructure, and threatens the lives of millions of people. Therefore, disaster management and risk assessment aims at detecting vulnerability and capacities in order to reduce coastal flood disaster risk. In particular, non-specialized researchers, emergency management personnel, and land use planners require an accurate, inexpensive method to determine and map risk associated with storm surge events and long-term sea level rise associated with climate change. This study contributes to the spatially evaluation and mapping of social-economic-environmental vulnerability and risk at sub-national scale through the development of appropriate tools and methods successfully embedded in a Web-GIS Decision Support System. A new set of raster-based models were studied and developed in order to be easily implemented in the Web-GIS framework with the purpose to quickly assess and map flood hazards characteristics, damage and vulnerability in a Multi-criteria approach. The Web-GIS DSS is developed recurring to open source software and programming language and its main peculiarity is to be available and usable by coastal managers and land use planners without requiring high scientific background in hydraulic engineering. The effectiveness of the system in the coastal risk assessment is evaluated trough its application to a real case study.

Assessment of the population structure and temporal changes in spatial dynamics and genetic characteristics of the Atlantic bluefin tuna under a fishery independent framework.

As a large and long-lived species with high economic value, restricted spawning areas and short spawning periods, the Atlantic bluefin tuna (BFT; Thunnus thynnus) is particularly susceptible to over-exploitation. Although BFT have been targeted by fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea for thousands of years, it has only been in these last decades that the exploitation rate has reached far beyond sustainable levels. An understanding of the population structure, spatial dynamics, exploitation rates and the environmental variables that affect BFT is crucial for the conservation of the species. The aims of this PhD project were 1) to assess the accuracy of larval identification methods, 2) determine the genetic structure of modern BFT populations, 3) assess the self-recruitment rate in the Gulf of Mexico and Mediterranean spawning areas, 4) estimate the immigration rate of BFT to feeding aggregations from the various spawning areas, and 5) develop tools capable of investigating the temporal stability of population structuring in the Mediterranean Sea. Several weaknesses in modern morphology-based taxonomy including demographic decline of expert taxonomists, flawed identification keys, reluctance of the taxonomic community to embrace advances in digital communications and a general scarcity of modern user-friendly materials are reviewed. Barcoding of scombrid larvae revealed important differences in the accuracy of the taxonomic identifications carried out by different ichthyoplanktologists following morphology-based methods. Using a Genotyping-by-Sequencing a panel of 95 SNPs was developed and used to characterize the population structuring of BFT and composition of adult feeding aggregations. Using novel molecular techniques, DNA was extracted from bluefin tuna vertebrae excavated from late iron age, ancient roman settlements Byzantine-era Constantinople and a 20th century collection. A second panel of 96 SNPs was developed to genotype historical and modern samples in order to elucidate changes in population structuring and allele frequencies of loci associated with selective traits.