Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Improved ground motion intensity measures for reliability-based demand analysis of structures

In Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE), evaluating the seismic performance (or seismic risk) of a structure at a designed site has gained major attention, especially in the past decade. One of the objectives in PBEE is to quantify the seismic reliability of a structure (due to the future random earthquakes) at a site. For that purpose, Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) is utilized as a tool to estimate the Mean Annual Frequency (MAF) of exceeding a specified value of a structural Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP). This dissertation focuses mainly on applying an average of a certain number of spectral acceleration ordinates in a certain interval of periods, Sa,avg (T1,…,Tn), as scalar ground motion Intensity Measure (IM) when assessing the seismic performance of inelastic structures. Since the interval of periods where computing Sa,avg is related to the more or less influence of higher vibration modes on the inelastic response, it is appropriate to speak about improved IMs. The results using these improved IMs are compared with a conventional elastic-based scalar IMs (e.g., pseudo spectral acceleration, Sa ( T(¹)), or peak ground acceleration, PGA) and the advanced inelastic-based scalar IM (i.e., inelastic spectral displacement, Sdi). The advantages of applying improved IMs are: (i ) "computability" of the seismic hazard according to traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), because ground motion prediction models are already available for Sa (Ti), and hence it is possibile to employ existing models to assess hazard in terms of Sa,avg, and (ii ) "efficiency" or smaller variability of structural response, which was minimized to assess the optimal range to compute Sa,avg. More work is needed to assess also "sufficiency" and "scaling robustness" desirable properties, which are disregarded in this dissertation. However, for ordinary records (i.e., with no pulse like effects), using the improved IMs is found to be more accurate than using the elastic- and inelastic-based IMs. For structural demands that are dominated by the first mode of vibration, using Sa,avg can be negligible relative to the conventionally-used Sa (T(¹)) and the advanced Sdi. For structural demands with sign.cant higher-mode contribution, an improved scalar IM that incorporates higher modes needs to be utilized. In order to fully understand the influence of the IM on the seismis risk, a simplified closed-form expression for the probability of exceeding a limit state capacity was chosen as a reliability measure under seismic excitations and implemented for Reinforced Concrete (RC) frame structures. This closed-form expression is partuclarly useful for seismic assessment and design of structures, taking into account the uncertainty in the generic variables, structural "demand" and "capacity" as well as the uncertainty in seismic excitations. The assumed framework employs nonlinear Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) procedures in order to estimate variability in the response of the structure (demand) to seismic excitations, conditioned to IM. The estimation of the seismic risk using the simplified closed-form expression is affected by IM, because the final seismic risk is not constant, but with the same order of magnitude. Possible reasons concern the non-linear model assumed, or the insufficiency of the selected IM. Since it is impossibile to state what is the "real" probability of exceeding a limit state looking the total risk, the only way is represented by the optimization of the desirable properties of an IM.

Performance evaluation of low environmental impact asphalt concretes using the mechanistic empirical design method based on laboratory fatigue and permanent deformation models

The "sustainability" concept relates to the prolonging of human economic systems with as little detrimental impact on ecological systems as possible. Construction that exhibits good environmental stewardship and practices that conserve resources in a manner that allow growth and development to be sustained for the long-term without degrading the environment are indispensable in a developed society. Past, current and future advancements in asphalt as an environmentally sustainable paving material are especially important because the quantities of asphalt used annually in Europe as well as in the U.S. are large. The asphalt industry is still developing technological improvements that will reduce the environmental impact without affecting the final mechanical performance. Warm mix asphalt (WMA) is a type of asphalt mix requiring lower production temperatures compared to hot mix asphalt (HMA), while aiming to maintain the desired post construction properties of traditional HMA. Lowering the production temperature reduce the fuel usage and the production of emissions therefore and that improve conditions for workers and supports the sustainable development. Even the crumb-rubber modifier (CRM), with shredded automobile tires and used in the United States since the mid 1980s, has proven to be an environmentally friendly alternative to conventional asphalt pavement. Furthermore, the use of waste tires is not only relevant in an environmental aspect but also for the engineering properties of asphalt [Pennisi E., 1992]. This research project is aimed to demonstrate the dual value of these Asphalt Mixes in regards to the environmental and mechanical performance and to suggest a low environmental impact design procedure. In fact, the use of eco-friendly materials is the first phase towards an eco-compatible design but it cannot be the only step. The eco-compatible approach should be extended also to the design method and material characterization because only with these phases is it possible to exploit the maximum potential properties of the used materials. Appropriate asphalt concrete characterization is essential and vital for realistic performance prediction of asphalt concrete pavements. Volumetric (Mix design) and mechanical (Permanent deformation and Fatigue performance) properties are important factors to consider. Moreover, an advanced and efficient design method is necessary in order to correctly use the material. A design method such as a Mechanistic-Empirical approach, consisting of a structural model capable of predicting the state of stresses and strains within the pavement structure under the different traffic and environmental conditions, was the application of choice. In particular this study focus on the CalME and its Incremental-Recursive (I-R) procedure, based on damage models for fatigue and permanent shear strain related to the surface cracking and to the rutting respectively. It works in increments of time and, using the output from one increment, recursively, as input to the next increment, predicts the pavement conditions in terms of layer moduli, fatigue cracking, rutting and roughness. This software procedure was adopted in order to verify the mechanical properties of the study mixes and the reciprocal relationship between surface layer and pavement structure in terms of fatigue and permanent deformation with defined traffic and environmental conditions. The asphalt mixes studied were used in a pavement structure as surface layer of 60 mm thickness. The performance of the pavement was compared to the performance of the same pavement structure where different kinds of asphalt concrete were used as surface layer. In comparison to a conventional asphalt concrete, three eco-friendly materials, two warm mix asphalt and a rubberized asphalt concrete, were analyzed. The First Two Chapters summarize the necessary steps aimed to satisfy the sustainable pavement design procedure. In Chapter I the problem of asphalt pavement eco-compatible design was introduced. The low environmental impact materials such as the Warm Mix Asphalt and the Rubberized Asphalt Concrete were described in detail. In addition the value of a rational asphalt pavement design method was discussed. Chapter II underlines the importance of a deep laboratory characterization based on appropriate materials selection and performance evaluation. In Chapter III, CalME is introduced trough a specific explanation of the different equipped design approaches and specifically explaining the I-R procedure. In Chapter IV, the experimental program is presented with a explanation of test laboratory devices adopted. The Fatigue and Rutting performances of the study mixes are shown respectively in Chapter V and VI. Through these laboratory test data the CalME I-R models parameters for Master Curve, fatigue damage and permanent shear strain were evaluated. Lastly, in Chapter VII, the results of the asphalt pavement structures simulations with different surface layers were reported. For each pavement structure, the total surface cracking, the total rutting, the fatigue damage and the rutting depth in each bound layer were analyzed.

Primary stability in cementless total hip replacement: measurement techniques and aided-surgery

Primary stability of stems in cementless total hip replacements is recognized to play a critical role for long-term survival and thus for the success of the overall surgical procedure. In Literature, several studies addressed this important issue. Different approaches have been explored aiming to evaluate the extent of stability achieved during surgery. Some of these are in-vitro protocols while other tools are coinceived for the post-operative assessment of prosthesis migration relative to the host bone. In vitro protocols reported in the literature are not exportable to the operating room. Anyway most of them show a good overall accuracy. The RSA, EBRA and the radiographic analysis are currently used to check the healing process of the implanted femur at different follow-ups, evaluating implant migration, occurance of bone resorption or osteolysis at the interface. These methods are important for follow up and clinical study but do not assist the surgeon during implantation. At the time I started my Ph.D Study in Bioengineering, only one study had been undertaken to measure stability intra-operatively. No follow-up was presented to describe further results obtained with that device. In this scenario, it was believed that an instrument that could measure intra-operatively the stability achieved by an implanted stem would consistently improve the rate of success. This instrument should be accurate and should give to the surgeon during implantation a quick answer concerning the stability of the implanted stem. With this aim, an intra-operative device was designed, developed and validated. The device is meant to help the surgeon to decide how much to press-fit the implant. It is essentially made of a torsional load cell, able to measure the extent of torque applied by the surgeon to test primary stability, an angular sensor that measure the relative angular displacement between stem and femur, a rigid connector that enable connecting the device to the stem, and all the electronics for signals conditioning. The device was successfully validated in-vitro, showing a good overall accuracy in discriminating stable from unstable implants. Repeatability tests showed that the device was reliable. A calibration procedure was then performed in order to convert the angular readout into a linear displacement measurement, which is an information clinically relevant and simple to read in real-time by the surgeon. The second study reported in my thesis, concerns the evaluation of the possibility to have predictive information regarding the primary stability of a cementless stem, by measuring the micromotion of the last rasp used by the surgeon to prepare the femoral canal. This information would be really useful to the surgeon, who could check prior to the implantation process if the planned stem size can achieve a sufficient degree of primary stability, under optimal press fitting conditions. An intra-operative tool was developed to this aim. It was derived from a previously validated device, which was adapted for the specific purpose. The device is able to measure the relative micromotion between the femur and the rasp, when a torsional load is applied. An in-vitro protocol was developed and validated on both composite and cadaveric specimens. High correlation was observed between one of the parameters extracted form the acquisitions made on the rasp and the stability of the corresponding stem, when optimally press-fitted by the surgeon. After tuning in-vitro the protocol as in a closed loop, verification was made on two hip patients, confirming the results obtained in-vitro and highlighting the independence of the rasp indicator from the bone quality, anatomy and preserving conditions of the tested specimens, and from the sharpening of the rasp blades. The third study is related to an approach that have been recently explored in the orthopaedic community, but that was already in use in other scientific fields. It is based on the vibration analysis technique. This method has been successfully used to investigate the mechanical properties of the bone and its application to evaluate the extent of fixation of dental implants has been explored, even if its validity in this field is still under discussion. Several studies have been published recently on the stability assessment of hip implants by vibration analysis. The aim of the reported study was to develop and validate a prototype device based on the vibration analysis technique to measure intra-operatively the extent of implant stability. The expected advantages of a vibration-based device are easier clinical use, smaller dimensions and minor overall cost with respect to other devices based on direct micromotion measurement. The prototype developed consists of a piezoelectric exciter connected to the stem and an accelerometer attached to the femur. Preliminary tests were performed on four composite femurs implanted with a conventional stem. The results showed that the input signal was repeatable and the output could be recorded accurately. The fourth study concerns the application of the device based on the vibration analysis technique to several cases, considering both composite and cadaveric specimens. Different degrees of bone quality were tested, as well as different femur anatomies and several levels of press-fitting were considered. The aim of the study was to verify if it is possible to discriminate between stable and quasi-stable implants, because this is the most challenging detection for the surgeon in the operation room. Moreover, it was possible to validate the measurement protocol by comparing the results of the acquisitions made with the vibration-based tool to two reference measurements made by means of a validated technique, and a validated device. The results highlighted that the most sensitive parameter to stability is the shift in resonance frequency of the stem-bone system, showing high correlation with residual micromotion on all the tested specimens. Thus, it seems possible to discriminate between many levels of stability, from the grossly loosened implant, through the quasi-stable implants, to the definitely stable one. Finally, an additional study was performed on a different type of hip prosthesis, which has recently gained great interest thus becoming fairly popular in some countries in the last few years: the hip resurfacing prosthesis. The study was motivated by the following rationale: although bone-prosthesis micromotion is known to influence the stability of total hip replacement, its effect on the outcome of resurfacing implants has not been investigated in-vitro yet, but only clinically. Thus the work was aimed at verifying if it was possible to apply to the resurfacing prosthesis one of the intraoperative devices just validated for the measurement of the micromotion in the resurfacing implants. To do that, a preliminary study was performed in order to evaluate the extent of migration and the typical elastic movement for an epiphyseal prosthesis. An in-vitro procedure was developed to measure micromotions of resurfacing implants. This included a set of in-vitro loading scenarios that covers the range of directions covered by hip resultant forces in the most typical motor-tasks. The applicability of the protocol was assessed on two different commercial designs and on different head sizes. The repeatability and reproducibility were excellent (comparable to the best previously published protocols for standard cemented hip stems). Results showed that the procedure is accurate enough to detect micromotions of the order of few microns. The protocol proposed was thus completely validated. The results of the study demonstrated that the application of an intra-operative device to the resurfacing implants is not necessary, as the typical micromovement associated to this type of prosthesis could be considered negligible and thus not critical for the stabilization process. Concluding, four intra-operative tools have been developed and fully validated during these three years of research activity. The use in the clinical setting was tested for one of the devices, which could be used right now by the surgeon to evaluate the degree of stability achieved through the press-fitting procedure. The tool adapted to be used on the rasp was a good predictor of the stability of the stem. Thus it could be useful for the surgeon while checking if the pre-operative planning was correct. The device based on the vibration technique showed great accuracy, small dimensions, and thus has a great potential to become an instrument appreciated by the surgeon. It still need a clinical evaluation, and must be industrialized as well. The in-vitro tool worked very well, and can be applied for assessing resurfacing implants pre-clinically.

A skin surface characterization system based on capacitive image analysis

During the last few years, several methods have been proposed in order to study and to evaluate characteristic properties of the human skin by using non-invasive approaches. Mostly, these methods cover aspects related to either dermatology, to analyze skin physiology and to evaluate the effectiveness of medical treatments in skin diseases, or dermocosmetics and cosmetic science to evaluate, for example, the effectiveness of anti-aging treatments. To these purposes a routine approach must be followed. Although very accurate and high resolution measurements can be achieved by using conventional methods, such as optical or mechanical profilometry for example, their use is quite limited primarily to the high cost of the instrumentation required, which in turn is usually cumbersome, highlighting some of the limitations for a routine based analysis. This thesis aims to investigate the feasibility of a noninvasive skin characterization system based on the analysis of capacitive images of the skin surface. The system relies on a CMOS portable capacitive device which gives 50 micron/pixel resolution capacitance map of the skin micro-relief. In order to extract characteristic features of the skin topography, image analysis techniques, such as watershed segmentation and wavelet analysis, have been used to detect the main structures of interest: wrinkles and plateau of the typical micro-relief pattern. In order to validate the method, the features extracted from a dataset of skin capacitive images acquired during dermatological examinations of a healthy group of volunteers have been compared with the age of the subjects involved, showing good correlation with the skin ageing effect. Detailed analysis of the output of the capacitive sensor compared with optical profilometry of silicone replica of the same skin area has revealed potentiality and some limitations of this technology. Also, applications to follow-up studies, as needed to objectively evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in a routine manner, are discussed.

On land management: landowners' attitudes to land and farming in Valdera, Tuscany

This thesis aims at explaining the intersecting dynamics of structural changes in agriculture and urbanisation, which involves changes in urban-rural relationships. The research questions are: how and why do landowners differ in their attitudes to land and farming? what are the main implications on rural landscapes and the policy implications? Relationships between urbanisation and agriculture are firstly analysed through a critical literature review; the analysis focuses on the 'landowner' as the key actor who actively takes decisions on the rural landscape From the empirical study – which is based on a Tuscan area (Valdera), and addressed through qualitative methods – a great diversity of landowners' attitudes to land and farming emerge, thus contributing to the agricultural restructuring, such as: 1) the emphasis on recreational function of the countryside for urban people 2) contracting out of land management, especially when landowners live or/and have 'urban' employment 3) the active role of hobby farmers in land management 4) agricultural operations simplification and lack of investments (especially in case of property rights expropriation). The thesis is framed in three papers, with the same methods and research questions. It seems evident that rural landscapes is subjected to functional changes (e.g. residential) and structural changes (landscape polarisation), which requires the need 1) to consider that rural landscape management is increasingly less connected to agricultural production as economic activity; 2) to give a coherence to the range of policy interventions (physical planning, landscape, sectoral).

Modelli Gravitazionali per l'analisi del Commercio Internazionale

Il modello gravitazionale e' ormai diventato un "cavallo da battaglia" in economia internazionle ed e' comunemente utilizzato nella determinazione dei flussi commerciali. Recentemente, molti studi hanno mostrato l'importanza della dipendenza spaziale, che va' a considerare quegli effetti dovuti al cosiddetto "third country". Intervengono a questo scopo la modellistica e le tecniche di stima di Econometria Spaziale. Verra' fatto uso di tali tecniche allo scopo di stimare con un modello gravitazionale spaziale il commercio internazionale tra paesi dell'OCSE per un panel di 22 anni. L'obiettivo e' quindi duplice: da un lato, si andra' ad applicare le piu' moderne tecniche di Econometria Spaziale, in un campo in cui tali contributi scarseggiano. Dall'altro lato,verra' fornita una interpretazione del comportamento del commercio internazionale tra paesi dell'OCSE, approfondendo gli aspetti relativi all'effetto del"third country" e del fenomeno migratorio. Inoltre , viene proposta un'analisi che ha lo scopo di validare l'ipotesi di omissione della distanza dal modello gravitazione strutturale.