Committed to reform? Pragmatic antitrust enforcement in electricity markets

This thesis is a collection of essays about the instrumental use of commitment decisions to facilitate the completion of the European internal electricity market. European policy can shape markets in many ways, two most evident being regulation and competition enforcement. The interplay between these two instruments attracts a lot of scholarly attention. One of the major concerns in the competition vs. regulation debate is the instrumental use of competition rules. It has been observed that competition enforcement is triggered not only as a response to an anticompetitive harm occurring in the market, but that it sometimes becomes a powerful tool in the European Commission’s hands to pursue regulatory goals. This thesis looks for examples of such instrumentalisation in the context of electricity markets and finds that the Commission is very pragmatic in using all the possible instruments it has at hand to push forward its project of creating the internal electricity market. This includes regulation, competition enforcement and all sorts of political pressure. To the extent that commitment decisions accelerate sector-specific regulation and overcome political deadlocks, they contribute to the Commission’s energy policy goals. However, instrumentalisation of competition rules comes at a certain cost to competition policy, energy policy and, most importantly, to electricity markets themselves. Markets might be negatively affected either indirectly, by application of sector-specific regulation or competition policy building on previous commitment decisions, or directly, through the implementation of inadequate commitments in individual cases. Concluding, commitment decisions generally contributed to achieving the policy objectives of the internal electricity market, but their use for that purpose does not come without cost. Given that this cost is ultimately borne by the internal electricity market, the Commission should take a more balanced approach to the instrumental use of commitment decisions so that it does not do more harm than good.

Designing Electricity Auctions in the Presence of Transmission Constraints

This paper analyzes the effect that different designs in the access to fnancial transmission rights has on spot electricity auctions. In particular, I characterize the equilibrium in the spot electricity market when financial transmission rights are assigned to the grid operator and when financial transmission rights are assigned to the firm that submits the lowest bid in the spot electricity auction. When financial transmission rights are assigned to the grid operator, my model, in contrast with the models available in the literature, works out the equilibrium for any transmission capacity. Moreover, I have found that an increase in transmission capacity not only increases competition between markets but also within a single market. When financial transmission rights are assigned to the firm that submits the lowest bid in the spot electricity auction, firms compete not only for electricity demand, but also for transmission rights and the arbitrage profits derived from its hold. I have found that introduce competition for transmission rights reduces competition in spot electricity auctions.

The impact of R&D in firm value across Europe

In this thesis the impact of R&D expenditures on firm market value and stock returns is examined. This is performed in a sample of European listed firms for the period 2000-2009. I apply different linear and GMM econometric estimations for testing the impact of R&D on market prices and construct country portfolios based on firms’ R&D expenditure to market capitalization ratio for studying the effect of R&D on stock returns. The results confirm that more innovative firms have a better market valuation,investors consider R&D as an asset that produces long-term benefits for corporations. The impact of R&D on firm value differs across countries. It is significantly modulated by the financial and legal environment where firms operate. Other firm and industry characteristics seem to play a determinant role when investors value R&D. First, only larger firms with lower financial leverage that operate in highly innovative sectors decide to disclose their R&D investment. Second, the markets assign a premium to small firms, which operate in hi-tech sectors compared to larger enterprises for low-tech industries. On the other hand, I provide empirical evidence indicating that generally highly R&D-intensive firms may enhance mispricing problems related to firm valuation. As R&D contributes to the estimation of future stock returns, portfolios that comprise high R&D-intensive stocks may earn significant excess returns compared to the less innovative after controlling for size and book-to-market risk. Further, the most innovative firms are generally more risky in terms of stock volatility but not systematically more risky than low-tech firms. Firms that operate in Continental Europe suffer more mispricing compared to Anglo-Saxon peers but the former are less volatile, other things being equal. The sectors where firms operate are determinant even for the impact of R&D on stock returns; this effect is much stronger in hi-tech industries.

Capitale sociale e sistema del valore: Il caso del pesce azzurro in Puglia

The aim of my project is to find operational strategies for increasing the commercial exploitation of fish in Apulia region and to acquire a thorough knowledge of several important aspects of this system order to propose concrete, suitable and appropriate development tools. The plan is to analyze the impact that the socio-economic context has on blue fish systems of fishing and marketing in the various maritime regions. The sector of fishery is typified by a settled downward trend due to both communitarian policies driving towards a reduction of the fishery effort and to reduction of fishing resources. In the same time in Italy a increasing of costs (expecially fuel) and a reduction of market prices, because of the increasing of imports, are observed. Although a big part of Italian fishing fleet is to be referred to Apulia region, this dynamics are worsen, here, also because of market inefficiency and lack of integration and cooperation among fishermen. In this first part of my work I have investigated two areas that are relevant for regional fishery. On a first step I have evaluated fish amount for each kind of dealer working in each one of the two areas than, according to Porter's value chain analysis theory. Than i have applied the approach of value system to evaluate the value chains of the firm's supplier, the firm of fishery itself, and the firms distribution channels. Distribution of value has been resulted different but very unfavorable to fisherman in both investigated areas. The second step of my study has been the evaluation of the social capital value in both areas, defining the networks of fishery consistence and number of their mutual relationship. Results lay stress on a relation to an higher social capital value and a distribution of value system more profitable for fishermen.

Optimization of bioenergy solutions at different farm scales

RAF is a bio-energetic descriptive model integrates with MAD model to support Integrated Farm Management. RAF model aimed to enhancing economical, social and environmental sustainability of farm production in terms of energy via convert energy crops and animal manure to biogas and digestate (bio-fertilizers) by anaerobic digestion technologies, growing and breeding practices. The user defines farm structure in terms of present crops, livestock and market prices and RAF model investigates the possibilities of establish on-farm biogas system (different anaerobic digestion technologies proposed for different scales of farms in terms of energy requirements) according to budget and sustainability constraints to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. The objective function of RAF (Z) is optimizing the total net income of farm (maximizing income and minimizing costs) for whole period which is considered by the analysis. The main results of this study refers to the possibility of enhancing the exploitation of the available Italian potentials of biogas production from on-farm production of energy crops and livestock manure feedstock by using the developed mathematical model RAF integrates with MAD to presents reliable reconcile between farm size, farm structure and on-farm biogas systems technologies applied to support selection, applying and operating of appropriate biogas technology at any farm under Italian conditions.

La Previsione dei Consumi Elettrici nel Mercato Energetico Italiano : un nuovo modello empirico con struttura triangolare

L'obiettivo principale della tesi è lo sviluppo di un modello empirico previsivo di breve periodo che sia in grado di offrire previsioni precise ed affidabili dei consumi di energia elettrica su base oraria del mercato italiano. Questo modello riassume le conoscenze acquisite e l'esperienza fatta durante la mia attuale attività lavorativa presso il Romagna Energia S.C.p.A., uno dei maggiori player italiani del mercato energetico. Durante l'ultimo ventennio vi sono stati drastici cambiamenti alla struttura del mercato elettrico in tutto il mondo. Nella maggior parte dei paesi industrializzati il settore dell'energia elettrica ha modificato la sua originale conformazione di monopolio in mercato competitivo liberalizzato, dove i consumatori hanno la libertà di scegliere il proprio fornitore. La modellazione e la previsione della serie storica dei consumi di energia elettrica hanno quindi assunto un ruolo molto importante nel mercato, sia per i policy makers che per gli operatori. Basandosi sulla letteratura già esistente, sfruttando le conoscenze acquisite 'sul campo' ed alcune intuizioni, si è analizzata e sviluppata una struttura modellistica di tipo triangolare, del tutto innovativa in questo ambito di ricerca, suggerita proprio dal meccanismo fisico attraverso il quale l'energia elettrica viene prodotta e consumata nell'arco delle 24 ore. Questo schema triangolare può essere visto come un particolare modello VARMA e possiede una duplice utilità, dal punto di vista interpretativo del fenomeno da una parte, e previsivo dall'altra. Vengono inoltre introdotti nuovi leading indicators legati a fattori meteorologici, con l'intento di migliorare le performance previsive dello stesso. Utilizzando quindi la serie storica dei consumi di energia elettrica italiana, dall'1 Marzo 2010 al 30 Marzo 2012, sono stati stimati i parametri del modello dello schema previsivo proposto e valutati i risultati previsivi per il periodo dall'1 Aprile 2012 al 30 Aprile 2012, confrontandoli con quelli forniti da fonti ufficiali.

A Multilevel Model with Time Series Components for the Analysis of Tribal Art Prices

In the present work we perform an econometric analysis of the Tribal art market. To this aim, we use a unique and original database that includes information on Tribal art market auctions worldwide from 1998 to 2011. In Literature, art prices are modelled through the hedonic regression model, a classic fixed-effect model. The main drawback of the hedonic approach is the large number of parameters, since, in general, art data include many categorical variables. In this work, we propose a multilevel model for the analysis of Tribal art prices that takes into account the influence of time on artwork prices. In fact, it is natural to assume that time exerts an influence over the price dynamics in various ways. Nevertheless, since the set of objects change at every auction date, we do not have repeated measurements of the same items over time. Hence, the dataset does not constitute a proper panel; rather, it has a two-level structure in that items, level-1 units, are grouped in time points, level-2 units. The main theoretical contribution is the extension of classical multilevel models to cope with the case described above. In particular, we introduce a model with time dependent random effects at the second level. We propose a novel specification of the model, derive the maximum likelihood estimators and implement them through the E-M algorithm. We test the finite sample properties of the estimators and the validity of the own-written R-code by means of a simulation study. Finally, we show that the new model improves considerably the fit of the Tribal art data with respect to both the hedonic regression model and the classic multilevel model.

Essays On CEO Compensation: New Evidence On The Managerial-Power Vs. Optimal Contracting Debate

This dissertation analyzes the effect of market analysts’ expectations of share prices (price targets) on executive compensation. It examines how well the estimated effects of price targets on compensation fit with two competing views on determining executive compensation: the arm’s length bargaining model, which assumes that a board seeks to maximize shareholders’ interests, and the managerial power model, which assumes that a board seeks to maximize managers’ compensation (Bebchuk et al. 2005). The first chapter documents the pattern of CEO pay from fiscal year 1996 to 2010. The second chapter analyzes the Institutional Broker Estimate System Detail History Price Target data file, which that reports analysts’ price targets for firms. I show that the number of price target announcements is positively associated with company share price’s volatility, that price targets are predictive of changes in the value of stocks, and that when analysts announce positive (negative) expectations of future stock price, share prices change in the same direction in the short run. The third chapter analyzes the effect of price targets on executive compensation. I find that analysts' price targets alter the composition of executive pay between cash-based compensation and stock-based compensation. When analysts forecast a rise (fall) in the share price for a firm, the compensation package tilts toward stock-based (cash-based) compensation. The substitution effect is stronger in companies that have weaker corporate governance. The fourth chapter explores the effect of the introduction of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) in 2002 and its reinforcement in 2006 on the options granting process. I show that the introduction of SOX and its reinforcement eliminated the practice of backdating options but increased “spring-loading” of option grants around price targets announcements. Overall, the dissertation shows that price targets provide insights into the determinants of executive pay in favor of the managerial power model.

Scenari finanziari e portafogli ottimi: modelli di previsione e strategie per l'asset allocation tattica

Le scelte di asset allocation costituiscono un problema ricorrente per ogni investitore. Quest’ultimo è continuamente impegnato a combinare diverse asset class per giungere ad un investimento coerente con le proprie preferenze. L’esigenza di supportare gli asset manager nello svolgimento delle proprie mansioni ha alimentato nel tempo una vasta letteratura che ha proposto numerose strategie e modelli di portfolio construction. Questa tesi tenta di fornire una rassegna di alcuni modelli innovativi di previsione e di alcune strategie nell’ambito dell’asset allocation tattica, per poi valutarne i risvolti pratici. In primis verificheremo la sussistenza di eventuali relazioni tra la dinamica di alcune variabili macroeconomiche ed i mercati finanziari. Lo scopo è quello di individuare un modello econometrico capace di orientare le strategie dei gestori nella costruzione dei propri portafogli di investimento. L’analisi prende in considerazione il mercato americano, durante un periodo caratterizzato da rapide trasformazioni economiche e da un’elevata volatilità dei prezzi azionari. In secondo luogo verrà esaminata la validità delle strategie di trading momentum e contrarian nei mercati futures, in particolare quelli dell’Eurozona, che ben si prestano all’implementazione delle stesse, grazie all’assenza di vincoli sulle operazioni di shorting ed ai ridotti costi di transazione. Dall’indagine emerge che entrambe le anomalie si presentano con carattere di stabilità. I rendimenti anomali permangono anche qualora vengano utilizzati i tradizionali modelli di asset pricing, quali il CAPM, il modello di Fama e French e quello di Carhart. Infine, utilizzando l’approccio EGARCH-M, verranno formulate previsioni sulla volatilità dei rendimenti dei titoli appartenenti al Dow Jones. Quest’ultime saranno poi utilizzate come input per determinare le views da inserire nel modello di Black e Litterman. I risultati ottenuti, evidenziano, per diversi valori dello scalare tau, extra rendimenti medi del new combined vector superiori al vettore degli extra rendimenti di equilibrio di mercato, seppur con livelli più elevati di rischio.

The market manipulation regime in the European Union

Market manipulation is an illegal practice that enables a person can profit from practices that artificially raise or lower the prices of an instrument in the financial markets. Its prohibition is based on the 2003 Market Abuse Directive in the EU. The current market manipulation regime was broadly considered as a big success except for enforcement and supervisory inconsistencies in the Member States at the initial. A review of the market manipulation regime began at the end of 2007, which became quickly incorporated into the wider EU crisis-era reform program. A number of weaknesses of current regime have been identified, which include regulatory gaps caused by the development of trading venues and financial products, regulatory gaps concerning cross-border and cross-markets manipulation (particular commodity markets), legal uncertainty as a result of various implementation, and inefficient supervision and enforcement. On 12 June 2014, a new regulatory package of market abuse, Market Abuse Regulation and Directive on criminal sanctions for market abuse, has been adopted. And several changes will be made concerning the EU market manipulation regime. A wider scope of the regime and a new prohibition of attempted market manipulation will ensure the prevention of market manipulation at large. The AMPs will be subject to strict scrutiny of ESMA to reduce divergences in implementation. In order to enhance efficiency of supervision and enforcement, powers of national competent authorities will be strengthened, ESMA is imposed more power to settle disagreement between national regulators, and the administrative and criminal sanctioning regimes are both further harmonized. In addition, the protection of fundamental rights is stressed by the new market manipulation regime, and some measures are provided to guarantee its realization. Further, the success EU market manipulation regime could be of significant reference to China, helping China to refine its immature regime.