"Making Sense of Figures": Statistics, Computing and Information Technologies in Agriculture and Biology in Britain, 1920s-1960s

Throughout the twentieth century statistical methods have increasingly become part of experimental research. In particular, statistics has made quantification processes meaningful in the soft sciences, which had traditionally relied on activities such as collecting and describing diversity rather than timing variation. The thesis explores this change in relation to agriculture and biology, focusing on analysis of variance and experimental design, the statistical methods developed by the mathematician and geneticist Ronald Aylmer Fisher during the 1920s. The role that Fisher’s methods acquired as tools of scientific research, side by side with the laboratory equipment and the field practices adopted by research workers, is here investigated bottom-up, beginning with the computing instruments and the information technologies that were the tools of the trade for statisticians. Four case studies show under several perspectives the interaction of statistics, computing and information technologies, giving on the one hand an overview of the main tools – mechanical calculators, statistical tables, punched and index cards, standardised forms, digital computers – adopted in the period, and on the other pointing out how these tools complemented each other and were instrumental for the development and dissemination of analysis of variance and experimental design. The period considered is the half-century from the early 1920s to the late 1960s, the institutions investigated are Rothamsted Experimental Station and the Galton Laboratory, and the statisticians examined are Ronald Fisher and Frank Yates.

The role of collective action in the provision of agri-environmental public goods: theoretical development through case studies in Italy

The thesis aims at analysing the role of collective action as a viable alternative to the traditional forms of intervention in agriculture in order to encourage the provision of agri-environmental public goods. Which are the main benefits of collective action, in terms of effectiveness and efficiency, compared to traditional market or public intervention policies? What are the drivers that encourage farmers to participate into collective action? To what extent it is possible to incorporate collective aspects into policies aimed at providing agri-environmental public goods? With the objective of addressing these research questions, the thesis is articulated in two levels: a theoretical analysis on the role of collective action in the provision of public goods and a specific investigation of two local initiative,s were an approach collective management of agro-environmental resources was successfully implemented. The first case study concerns a project named “Custodians of the Territory”, developed by the local agency in Tuscany “Comunità Montana Media Valle del Serchio”, which settled for an agreement with local farmers for a collective provision of environmental services related to the hydro-geological management of the district. The second case study is related to the territorial agri-environmental agreement experimented in Valdaso (Marche), where local farmers have adopted integrated pest management practices collectively with the aim of reducing the environmental impact of their farming practices. The analysis of these initiatives, carried out through participatory methods (Rapid Rural Appraisal), allowed developing a theoretical discussion on the role of innovative tools (such as co-production and co-management) in the provision of agri-environmental public goods. The case studies also provided some recommendations on the government intervention and policies needed to promote successful collective action for the provision of agri-environmental public goods.

On land management: landowners' attitudes to land and farming in Valdera, Tuscany

This thesis aims at explaining the intersecting dynamics of structural changes in agriculture and urbanisation, which involves changes in urban-rural relationships. The research questions are: how and why do landowners differ in their attitudes to land and farming? what are the main implications on rural landscapes and the policy implications? Relationships between urbanisation and agriculture are firstly analysed through a critical literature review; the analysis focuses on the 'landowner' as the key actor who actively takes decisions on the rural landscape From the empirical study – which is based on a Tuscan area (Valdera), and addressed through qualitative methods – a great diversity of landowners' attitudes to land and farming emerge, thus contributing to the agricultural restructuring, such as: 1) the emphasis on recreational function of the countryside for urban people 2) contracting out of land management, especially when landowners live or/and have 'urban' employment 3) the active role of hobby farmers in land management 4) agricultural operations simplification and lack of investments (especially in case of property rights expropriation). The thesis is framed in three papers, with the same methods and research questions. It seems evident that rural landscapes is subjected to functional changes (e.g. residential) and structural changes (landscape polarisation), which requires the need 1) to consider that rural landscape management is increasingly less connected to agricultural production as economic activity; 2) to give a coherence to the range of policy interventions (physical planning, landscape, sectoral).

Aspetti di sostenibilità in agricoltura a diverse scale spaziali e temporali. Valutazioni ambientali, economiche ed energetiche.

La Tesi analizza le relazioni tra i processi di sviluppo agricolo e l’uso delle risorse naturali, in particolare di quelle energetiche, a livello internazionale (paesi in via di sviluppo e sviluppati), nazionale (Italia), regionale (Emilia Romagna) e aziendale, con lo scopo di valutare l’eco-efficienza dei processi di sviluppo agricolo, la sua evoluzione nel tempo e le principali dinamiche in relazione anche ai problemi di dipendenza dalle risorse fossili, della sicurezza alimentare, della sostituzione tra superfici agricole dedicate all’alimentazione umana ed animale. Per i due casi studio a livello macroeconomico è stata adottata la metodologia denominata “SUMMA” SUstainability Multi-method, multi-scale Assessment (Ulgiati et al., 2006), che integra una serie di categorie d’impatto dell’analisi del ciclo di vita, LCA, valutazioni costi-benefici e la prospettiva di analisi globale della contabilità emergetica. L’analisi su larga scala è stata ulteriormente arricchita da un caso studio sulla scala locale, di una fattoria produttrice di latte e di energia elettrica rinnovabile (fotovoltaico e biogas). Lo studio condotto mediante LCA e valutazione contingente ha valutato gli effetti ambientali, economici e sociali di scenari di riduzione della dipendenza dalle fonti fossili. I casi studio a livello macroeconomico dimostrano che, nonostante le politiche di supporto all’aumento di efficienza e a forme di produzione “verdi”, l’agricoltura a livello globale continua ad evolvere con un aumento della sua dipendenza dalle fonti energetiche fossili. I primi effetti delle politiche agricole comunitarie verso una maggiore sostenibilità sembrano tuttavia intravedersi per i Paesi Europei. Nel complesso la energy footprint si mantiene alta poiché la meccanizzazione continua dei processi agricoli deve necessariamente attingere da fonti energetiche sostitutive al lavoro umano. Le terre agricole diminuiscono nei paesi europei analizzati e in Italia aumentando i rischi d’insicurezza alimentare giacché la popolazione nazionale sta invece aumentando.

An Innovation System Perspective on Adaptation Strategies to Climate Variability and Water Management in India

Government policies play a critical role in influencing market conditions, institutions and overall agricultural productivity. The thesis therefore looks into the history of agriculture development in India. Taking a political economy perspective, the historical account looks at significant institutional and technological innovations carried out in pre- independent and post independent India. It further focuses on the Green Revolution in Asia, as forty years after; the agricultural community still faces the task of addressing recurrent issue of food security amidst emerging challenges, such as climate change. It examines the Green Revolution that took place in India during the late 1960s and 70s in a historical perspective, identifying two factors of institutional change and political leadership. Climate change in agriculture development has become a major concern to farmers, researchers and policy makers alike. However, there is little knowledge on the farmers’ perception to climate change and to the extent they coincide with actual climatic data. Using a qualitative approach,it looks into the perceptions of the farmers in four villages in the states of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. While exploring the adaptation strategies, the chapter looks into the dynamics of who can afford a particular technology and who cannot and what leads to a particular adaptation decision thus determining the adaptive capacity in water management. The final section looks into the devolution of authority for natural resource management to local user groups through the Water Users’ Associations as an important approach to overcome the long-standing challenges of centralized state bureaucracies in India. It addresses the knowledge gap of why some local user groups are able to overcome governance challenges such as elite capture, while others-that work under the design principles developed by Elinor Ostrom. It draws conclusions on how local leadership, can be promoted to facilitate participatory irrigation management.

Technology Development and Consumer Acceptance of Innovation in Fruit Production

Precision Agriculture (PA) and the more specific branch of Precision Horticulture are two very promising sectors. They focus on the use of technologies in agriculture to optimize the use of inputs, so to reach a better efficiency, and minimize waste of resources. This important objective motivated many researchers and companies to search new technology solutions. Sometimes the effort proved to be a good seed, but sometimes an unfeasible idea. So that PA, from its birth more or less 25 years ago, is still a “new” management, interesting for the future, but an actual low adoption rate is still reported by experts and researchers. This work aims to give a contribution in finding the causes of this low adoption rate and proposing a methodological solution to this problem. The first step was to examine prior research about Precision Agriculture adoption, by ex ante and ex post approach. It was supposed as important to find connections between these two phases of a purchase experience. In fact, the ex ante studies dealt with potential consumer’s perceptions before a usage experience occurred, therefore before purchasing a technology, while the ex post studies described the drivers which made a farmer become an end-user of PA technology. Then, an example of consumer research is presented. This was an ex ante research focused on pre-prototype technology for fruit production. This kind of research could give precious information about consumer acceptance before reaching an advanced development phase of the technology, and so to have the possibility to change something with the least financial impact. The final step was to develop the pre-prototype technology that was the subject of the consumer acceptance research and test its technical characteristics.

Risk analysis of tractor rollover in the normal operation in field

Tractor rollover represent a primary cause of death or serious injury in agriculture and despite the mandatory Roll-Over Protective Structures (ROPS), that reduced the number of injuries, tractor accidents are still of great concern. Because of their versatility and wide use many studies on safety are concerned with the stability of tractors, but they often prefer controlled tests or laboratory tests. The evaluation of tractors working in field, instead, is a very complex issue because the rollover could be influenced by the interaction among operator, tractor and environment. Recent studies are oriented towards the evaluation of the actual working conditions developing prototypes for driver assistance and data acquisition. Currently these devices are produced and sold by manufacturers. A warning device was assessed in this study with the aim to evaluate its performance and to collect data on different variables influencing the dynamics of tractors in field by monitoring continuously the working conditions of tractors operating at the experimental farm of the Bologna University. The device consists of accelerometers, gyroscope, GSM/GPRS, GPS for geo-referencing and a transceiver for the automatic recognition of tractor-connected equipment. A microprocessor processes data and provides information, through a dedicated algorithm requiring data on the geometry of the tested tractor, on the level of risk for the operator in terms of probable loss of stability and suggests corrective measures to reduce the potential instability of the tractor.

Rural governance and livelihoods systems diversification in the Western Balkans: comparative case studies of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia

Agriculture is still important for socio-economic development in rural areas of Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia (BMS). However, for sustainable rural development rural economies should be diversified so attention should be paid also to off-farm and non-farm income-generating activities. Agricultural and rural development (ARD) processes and farm activity diversification initiatives should be well governed. The ultimate objective of this work is to explore linkages between ARD governance and rural livelihoods diversification in BMS. The thesis is based on an extended secondary data analysis and surveys. Questionnaires for ARD governance and coordination were sent via email to public, civil society and international organizations. Concerning rural livelihood diversification, the field questionnaire surveys were carried out in three rural regions of BMS. Results show that local rural livelihoods are increasingly diversified but a significant share of households are still engaged in agriculture. Diversification strategies have a chance to succeed taking into consideration the three rural regions’ assets. However, rural households have to tackle many problems for developing new income-generating activities such as the lack of financial resources. Weak business skills are also a limiting factor. Fully exploiting rural economy diversification potential in BMS requires many interventions including improving rural governance, enhancing service delivery in rural areas, upgrading rural people’s human capital, strengthening rural social capital and improving physical capital, access of the rural population to finance as well as creating a favourable and enabling legal and legislative environment fostering diversification. Governance and coordination of ARD policy design, implementation and evaluation is still challenging in the three Balkan countries and this has repercussions also on the pace of rural livelihoods diversification. Therefore, there is a strong and urgent need for mobilization of all rural stakeholders and actors through appropriate governance arrangements in order to foster rural livelihoods diversification and quality of life improvement.

L'inerbimento nell'ecosistema vigneto: confronto di metodologie di misura del consumo idrico del prato e risposta allo sfalcio

Water resources management will become increasingly important in agriculture as global warming takes place. Cover crop is largely used in viticultural areas based on the many positive agronomic and environmental benefits it provides. However, it is not clear what effect the cover crop can have on water use in the vineyard. This study is designed to develop a further understanding of the role cover crops play in total water use in the vineyard and develop our understanding of the potential use of cover crops as a water management tool. Two techniques were used to measure cover crop water use, the mini-lysimeters and a portable open chamber and data from both was compared to reference evapotranspiration (ETo) (FAO guidelines). While the mini-lysimeters seemed to be limited in their ability to accurately represent the water use of the surrounding soil, the open chamber method is a reliable and suitable instrument to be used for the accurate measurement of evapotranspiration. Further, the relationship between vineyard grass water use and the contributing environmental factors thought to influence water use were analyzed. A strong relationship between total available radiation and cover crop evapotranspiration was found suggesting the possibility of an indirect method of evapotranspiration measurement in a vineyard grass cover crop. Mowing the cover crop was determined to significantly effect transpiration as shown by both the mini-lysimeter and open chamber, however, the reduction was largely dependent on the growth rate of the grass.

Phytoplankton Response to Environmental Variables and Organic Pollutants. Laboratory Cultures and Numerical Simulations Experiments

Herbicides are becoming emergent contaminants in Italian surface, coastal and ground waters, due to their intensive use in agriculture. In marine environments herbicides have adverse effects on non-target organisms, as primary producers, resulting in oxygen depletion and decreased primary productivity. Alterations of species composition in algal communities can also occur due to the different sensitivity among the species. In the present thesis the effects of herbicides, widely used in the Northern Adriatic Sea, on different algal species were studied. The main goal of this work was to study the influence of temperature on algal growth in the presence of the triazinic herbicide terbuthylazine (TBA), and the cellular responses adopted to counteract the toxic effects of the pollutant (Chapter 1 and 2). The development of simulation models to be applied in environmental management are needed to organize and track information in a way that would not be possible otherwise and simulate an ecological prospective. The data collected from laboratory experiments were used to simulate algal responses to the TBA exposure at increasing temperature conditions (Chapter 3). Part of the thesis was conducted in foreign countries. The work presented in Chapter 4 was focused on the effect of high light on growth, toxicity and mixotrophy of the ichtyotoxic species Prymnesium parvum. In addition, a mesocosm experiment was conducted in order to study the synergic effect of the pollutant emamectin benzoate with other anthropogenic stressors, such as oil pollution and induced phytoplankton blooms (Chapter 5).

Numerical optimization,modeling and system evaluation of a thermophotovoltaic hybrid panel

Photovoltaic (PV) solar panels generally produce electricity in the 6% to 16% efficiency range, the rest being dissipated in thermal losses. To recover this amount, hybrid photovoltaic thermal systems (PVT) have been devised. These are devices that simultaneously convert solar energy into electricity and heat. It is thus interesting to study the PVT system globally from different point of views in order to evaluate advantages and disadvantages of this technology and its possible uses. In particular in Chapter II, the development of the PVT absorber numerical optimization by a genetic algorithm has been carried out analyzing different internal channel profiles in order to find a right compromise between performance and technical and economical feasibility. Therefore in Chapter III ,thanks to a mobile structure built into the university lab, it has been compared experimentally electrical and thermal output power from PVT panels with separated photovoltaic and solar thermal productions. Collecting a lot of experimental data based on different seasonal conditions (ambient temperature,irradiation, wind...),the aim of this mobile structure has been to evaluate average both thermal and electrical increasing and decreasing efficiency values obtained respect to separate productions through the year. In Chapter IV , new PVT and solar thermal equation based models in steady state conditions have been developed by software Dymola that uses Modelica language. This permits ,in a simplified way respect to previous system modelling softwares, to model and evaluate different concepts about PVT panel regarding its structure before prototyping and measuring it. Chapter V concerns instead the definition of PVT boundary conditions into a HVAC system . This was made trough year simulations by software Polysun in order to finally assess the best solar assisted integrated structure thanks to F_save(solar saving energy)factor. Finally, Chapter VI presents the conclusion and the perspectives of this PhD work.

New water use efficiency strategies to cope with climate change

Crop water requirements are important elements for food production, especially in arid and semiarid regions. These regions are experience increasing population growth and less water for agriculture, which amplifies the need for more efficient irrigation. Improved water use efficiency is needed to produce more food while conserving water as a limited natural resource. Evaporation (E) from bare soil and Transpiration (T) from plants is considered a critical part of the global water cycle and, in recent decades, climate change could lead to increased E and T. Because energy is required to break hydrogen bonds and vaporize water, water and energy balances are closely connected. The soil water balance is also linked with water vapour losses to evapotranspiration (ET) that are dependent mainly on energy balance at the Earth’s surface. This work addresses the role of evapotranspiration for water use efficiency by developing a mathematical model that improves the accuracy of crop evapotranspiration calculation; accounting for the effects of weather conditions, e.g., wind speed and humidity, on crop coefficients, which relates crop evapotranspiration to reference evapotranspiration. The ability to partition ET into Evaporation and Transpiration components will help irrigation managers to find ways to improve water use efficiency by decreasing the ratio of evaporation to transpiration. The developed crop coefficient model will improve both irrigation scheduling and water resources planning in response to future climate change, which can improve world food production and water use efficiency in agriculture.