Essays in the Economics of Ageing

In the first paper, I assess if financial incentives may be used as an effective device to induce workers to postpone retirement by evaluating the Italian so called “super bonus” reform. The bonus consisted in economic incentives given for a limited period to private sector workers who had reached the requirements for seniority pension. Crucially for this study, public workers were not entitled to the bonus. Using data from the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income andWealth, and exploiting the DID-Probit strategy proposed by Blundell et al. (JEEA, 2004), I assess the effect of the bonus on the decision to postpone retirement, by comparing private and public workers before and after the reform. Results suggest a reduction of 12ppt in the proportion of private workers who decided to retire among those qualifying for retirement. Results also suggest, not trivially, that most of the effect of the reform is driven by low-income workers. Finally, I propose an estimate of the extensive margin elasticity of Italian older workers. The second study estimates a structural reduced form of the “option value” model developed by Stock and Wise (1990) using Italian data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).Exploiting exogenous changes in social security wealth (SSW) results show a significant effect in the expected direction of SSW and of marginal incentives to retire. Results are robust even after controlling for individual heterogeneity and its correlation with financial incentives. Using detailed information on individuals, the results also highlights the importance of individual and job characteristics, which have been very little explored by this literature, as determinants of retirement. This suggests the potential of “tagging” in the design of social security incentives in order to reduce choice distortions and improve the overall efficiency of the system.

Changes in tumor stiffness for early prediction of tumor response to sorafenib: a proof-of-concept study with elastosonography in an animal model of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC)

Background and aims: Sorafenib is the reference therapy for advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). No method exists to predict in the very early period subsequent individual response. Starting from the clinical experience in humans that subcutaneous metastases may rapidly change consistency under sorafenib and that elastosonography a new ultrasound based technique allows assessment of tissue stiffness, we investigated the role of elastonography in the very early prediction of tumor response to sorafenib in a HCC animal model. Methods: HCC (Huh7 cells) subcutaneous xenografting in mice was utilized. Mice were randomized to vehicle or treatment with sorafenib when tumor size was 5-10 mm. Elastosonography (Mylab 70XVG, Esaote, Genova, Italy) of the whole tumor mass on a sagittal plane with a 10 MHz linear transducer was performed at different time points from treatment start (day 0, +2, +4, +7 and +14) until mice were sacrified (day +14), with the operator blind to treatment. In order to overcome variability in absolute elasticity measurement when assessing changes over time, values were expressed in arbitrary units as relative stiffness of the tumor tissue in comparison to the stiffness of a standard reference stand-off pad lying on the skin over the tumor. Results: Sor-treated mice showed a smaller tumor size increase at day +14 in comparison to vehicle-treated (tumor volume increase +192.76% vs +747.56%, p=0.06). Among Sor-treated tumors, 6 mice showed a better response to treatment than the other 4 (increase in volume +177% vs +553%, p=0.011). At day +2, median tumor elasticity increased in Sor-treated group (+6.69%, range –30.17-+58.51%), while decreased in the vehicle group (-3.19%, range –53.32-+37.94%) leading to a significant difference in absolute values (p=0.034). From this time point onward, elasticity decreased in both groups, with similar speed over time, not being statistically different anymore. In Sor-treated mice all 6 best responders at day 14 showed an increase in elasticity at day +2 (ranging from +3.30% to +58.51%) in comparison to baseline, whereas 3 of the 4 poorer responders showed a decrease. Interestingly, these 3 tumours showed elasticity values higher than responder tumours at day 0. Conclusions: Elastosonography appears a promising non-invasive new technique for the early prediction of HCC tumor response to sorafenib. Indeed, we proved that responder tumours are characterized by an early increase in elasticity. The possibility to distinguish a priori between responders and non responders based on the higher elasticity of the latter needs to be validated in ad-hoc experiments as well as a confirmation of our results in humans is warranted.

An interdisciplinary analysis of obesity: theory and empirical evidence

The dissertation is structured in three parts. The first part compares US and EU agricultural policies since the end of WWII. There is not enough evidence for claiming that agricultural support has a negative impact on obesity trends. I discuss the possibility of an exchange in best practices to fight obesity. There are relevant economic, societal and legal differences between the US and the EU. However, partnerships against obesity are welcomed. The second part presents a socio-ecological model of the determinants of obesity. I employ an interdisciplinary model because it captures the simultaneous influence of several variables. Obesity is an interaction of pre-birth, primary and secondary socialization factors. To test the significance of each factor, I use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health. I compare the average body mass index across different populations. Differences in means are statistically significant. In the last part I use the National Survey of Children Health. I analyze the effect that family characteristics, built environment, cultural norms and individual factors have on the body mass index (BMI). I use Ordered Probit models and I calculate the marginal effects. I use State and ethnicity fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. I find that southern US States tend have on average a higher probability of being obese. On the ethnicity side, White Americans have a lower BMI respect to Black Americans, Hispanics and American Indians Native Islanders; being Asian is associated with a lower probability of being obese. In neighborhoods where trust level and safety perception are higher, children are less overweight and obese. Similar results are shown for higher level of parental income and education. Breastfeeding has a negative impact. Higher values of measures of behavioral disorders have a positive and significant impact on obesity, as predicted by the theory.

Agrofood chain analysis: production, commercialisation and consumption of healthy food for population at risk of poverty in Italy

Italy registers a fast increase of low income population. Academics and policy makers consider income inequalities as a key determinant for low or inadequate healthy food consumption. Thus the objective is to understand how to overcome the agrofood chain barriers towards healthy food production, commercialisation and consumption for population at risk of poverty (ROP) in Italy. The study adopts a market oriented food chain approach, focusing the research ambit on ROP consumers, processing industries and retailers. The empirical investigation adopts a qualitative methodology with an explorative approach. The actors are investigated through 4 focus groups for consumers and carrying out 27 face to face semi-structured interviews for industries and retailers’ representatives. The results achieved provide the perceptions of each actor integrated into an overall chain approach. The analysis shows that all agrofood actors lack of an adequate level of knowledge towards healthy food definition. Food industries and retailers also show poor awareness about ROP consumers’ segment. In addition they perceive that the high costs for producing healthy food conflict with the low economic performances expected from ROP consumers’ segment. These aspects induce a scarce interest in investing on commercialisation strategies for healthy food for ROP consumers. Further ROP consumers show other notable barriers to adopt healthy diets caused, among others, by a personal strong negative attitude and lack of motivation. The personal barriers are also negatively influenced by several external socio-economic factors. The solutions to overcome the barriers shall rely on the improvement of the agrofood chain internal relations to identify successful strategies for increasing interest on low cost healthy food. In particular the focus should be on improved collaboration on innovation adoption and marketing strategies, considering ROP consumers’ preferences and needs. An external political intervention is instead necessary to fill the knowledge and regulations’ gaps on healthy food issues.

Export Supply Chain Organization and Food Safety and Quality Standards: a case study of the Moroccan Fruit and Vegetable Sector

Agri-food supply chains extend beyond national boundaries, partially facilitated by a policy environment that encourages more liberal international trade. Rising concentration within the downstream sector has driven a shift towards “buyer-driven” global value chains (GVCs) extending internationally with global sourcing and the emergence of multinational key economic players that compete with increase emphasis on product quality attributes. Agri-food systems are thus increasingly governed by a range of inter-related public and private standards, both of which are becoming a priori mandatory, especially in supply chains for high-value and quality-differentiated agri-food products and tend to strongly affect upstream agricultural practices, firms’ internal organization and strategic behaviour and to shape the food chain organization. Notably, increasing attention has been given to the impact of SPS measures on agri-food trade and notably on developing countries’ export performance. Food and agricultural trade is the vital link in the mutual dependency of the global trade system and developing countries. Hence, developing countries derive a substantial portion of their income from food and agricultural trade. In Morocco, fruit and vegetable (especially fresh) are the primary agricultural export. Because of the labor intensity, this sector (especially citrus and tomato) is particularly important in terms of income and employment generation, especially for the female laborers hired in the farms and packing houses. Hence, the emergence of agricultural and agrifood product safety issues and the subsequent tightening of market requirements have challenged mutual gains due to the lack of technical and financial capacities of most developing countries.

Effetti dell’introduzione dei Principi contabili internazionali sul principio di derivazione del reddito d’impresa dal risultato di bilancio

Con il presente lavoro si è tentato di verificare se le ragioni che hanno portato l’ordinamento italiano ad adottare il principio della derivazione del reddito d'impresa dal risultato contabile, possano essere considerate ancora attuali alla luce dell'introduzione dei principi IAS/IFRS nel nostro sistema contabile. In particolare, si è cercato di esaminare se questo collegamento ai principi contabili internazionali, introdotto nel nostro ordinamento anche per la redazione dei bilanci d'esercizio, abbia comportato il venir meno della neutralità dell'imposizione fiscale tra le società cd. Ias adopter e no Ias adopter. L'analisi di questa problematica è stata condotta anche prendendo come riferimento le modalità di recepimento delle opzioni contenute nel Regolamento n. 1606/2002 da parte dei legislatori di alcuni Stati europei, e valutando se le conseguenze fiscali emergenti tra i vari ordinamenti possano creare possibili distorsioni alla concorrenza ed alle libertà fondamentali dell’Unione europea.

Tutela e valorizzazione delle produzioni agroalimentari di qualità attraverso strategie di brand management.Il modello Coop.

Questa tesi di dottorato verte sull'individuazione di politiche industriali atte ad implementare il mercato dei prodotti a denominazione di origine. Inevitabilmente, l’analisi economica dei prodotti agroalimentari tipici di qualità implica anche l’approfondimento e l’individuazione, delle problematiche connesse con la creazione di un valore addizionale per il consumatore, rispetto a quello dei prodotti standardizzati. Questo approccio richiama l’attenzione, da una parte, sulle caratteristiche della domanda e sulla disponibilità del consumatore a riconoscere e apprezzare questo plus-valore, dall’altra sulle strategie che l’offerta può attivare per conseguire un premium price rispetto al prodotto standardizzato. Le certificazioni comunitarie Dop, Igp e Stg oltre che il marchio di prodotto biologico racchiudono, solitamente, tali dinamiche valoriali ma sono tutt’oggi poco conosciute dai consumatori. Diversi studi internazionali dimostrano, infatti, che la maggioranza dei cittadini comunitari ignorano il significato delle certificazioni di qualità. L’ipotesi di fondo di questo studio si basa sulla possibilità di fidelizzare questi marchi con i brand della grande distribuzione già affermati, come quello di Coop. Analizzare gli effetti dell’introduzione di prodotti private label a denominazione di origine nel mercato della grande distribuzione organizzata italiana ci permetterebbe di comprendere se questo segmento di mercato può aiutare il settore delle Dop/Igp. Questo studio ha cercato di verificare se il prodotto private label a denominazione di origine, riesca a sfruttare il doppio binario di fiducia rappresentato dal marchio comunitario unito a quello dell’impresa di distribuzione. Per comprendere la propensione del consumatore a spendere di più per questi prodotti, abbiamo utilizzato l’analisi dell’elasticità della domanda sul prezzo dei dati scanner fornitici da Coop Adriatica. Siamo riusciti a dimostrare tale positivo connubio confermato anche da una indagine demoscopica effettuata ad hoc sui consumatori.

Responsabilita' sociale d'impresa e abitudini alimentari: contributo di Coop nella creazione di valore per i cittadini, per il territorio e i prodotti tipici di qualità

I cambiamenti e le innovazioni sociali, che hanno caratterizzato il secolo scorso, hanno generato mutamenti significativi nella struttura dei consumi, legati in particolare a una maggiore consapevolezza dei consumatori e allo scoppio della crisi economica. Assume sempre maggiore importanza, all’interno delle politiche di brand management, il ruolo della Responsabilità Sociale d’Impresa, che spinge la Grande Distribuzione Organizzata a proporre prodotti con più alti standard qualitativi e di sicurezza. Il caso analizzato è quello della linea biologica ViviVerde Coop, la cui offerta di prodotti biologici a private label ha avuto un impatto molto positivo sul mercato. L’analisi dell’elasticità della curva di domanda di alcuni di questi prodotti nel periodo gennaio 2010-maggio 2012 rivela diversi valori positivi e maggiori di 1, indice del fatto che il prezzo non abbia avuto effetti negativi sulle vendite dei prodotti considerati. Tale evidenza risulta rilevante proprio in un periodo di profonda crisi economica che ha interessato, in modo significativo, anche i consumi alimentari.

Essays on Unemployment Insurance

Can the potential availability of unemployment insurance (UI) affect the behavior of employed workers and the duration of their employment spells? After discussing few straightforward reasons why UI may affect employment duration, I apply a regression kink design (RKD) to address this question using linked employer-employee data from the Brazilian labor market. Exploiting the UI schedule, I find that potential benefit level significantly affects the duration of employment spells. This effect is local to low skilled workers and, surprisingly, indicates that a 1\% increase in unemployment benefits increases job duration by around 0.3\%. Such result is driven by the fact that higher UI decreases the probability of job quits, which are not covered by UI in Brazil. These estimates are robust to permutation tests and a number of falsification tests. I develop a reduced-form welfare formula to assess the economic relevance of this result. Based on that, I show that the positive effect on employment duration implies in a higher optimal benefit level. Moreover, the formula shows that the elasticity of employment duration impacts welfare just with the same weight as the well-known elasticity of unemployment duration to benefit level.