Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Regulating FinTech: The perspectives of law, economics, and technology

FinTech (financial technology, ‘‘FinTech’’) is a double-edged sword as it brings both benefits and risks. This study appraised FinTech’s technological nature that brings changes in complexity in modern financial markets to identify the information deficits and its undesirable outcomes. Besides, as FinTech is still developing, the information regarding, for instance, whether and how to apply regulation may be insufficient for both regulators and those regulated. More one-size-fits-all regulation might accordingly be adopted, thereby resulting in the adverse selection. Through the lens of both law and economics and law and technology, this study suggested AFR (adaptive financial regulation, ‘‘AFR’’) of FinTech to solve the underlying pacing issue. AFR is dynamic, enabling regulatory adjustments and learning. Exploring and collecting information through experiments and learning from experiments are the core of AFR. FinTech regulatory sandboxes epitomize AFR. This study chose Taiwan as a case study. This study found several barriers to adaptive and effective FinTech regulation. Unduly emphasizing consumer protection and the innovation entry criterion by improperly imposing limits on the entry into sandboxes, ignoring post-sandbox mechanisms, and relying on detailed, specific and prescriptive rules to formulate sandboxes are examples. To solve these barriers, this study proposed several solutions by looking into the experiences in other jurisdictions and analyzing. First, striking a balance between encouraging innovation and ensuring financial stability and consumer protection is indispensable. Second, entry to sandboxes should be facilitated by improving the selection criteria. Third, adhering to realizing regulatory adjustment and learning to adapt regulation to technology, this study argued that systematic post-sandbox mechanisms should be established. Fourth, this study recommended “more principles-based sandboxes”. Principles rather than rules should be the base on which sandboxes or FinTech regulation are established. Having principles could provide more flexibility, being easier to adjust and adapt, and better at avoiding.

Enhanced Mixed Integer Programming Techniques and Routing Problems

Mixed integer programming is up today one of the most widely used techniques for dealing with hard optimization problems. On the one side, many practical optimization problems arising from real-world applications (such as, e.g., scheduling, project planning, transportation, telecommunications, economics and finance, timetabling, etc) can be easily and effectively formulated as Mixed Integer linear Programs (MIPs). On the other hand, 50 and more years of intensive research has dramatically improved on the capability of the current generation of MIP solvers to tackle hard problems in practice. However, many questions are still open and not fully understood, and the mixed integer programming community is still more than active in trying to answer some of these questions. As a consequence, a huge number of papers are continuously developed and new intriguing questions arise every year. When dealing with MIPs, we have to distinguish between two different scenarios. The first one happens when we are asked to handle a general MIP and we cannot assume any special structure for the given problem. In this case, a Linear Programming (LP) relaxation and some integrality requirements are all we have for tackling the problem, and we are ``forced" to use some general purpose techniques. The second one happens when mixed integer programming is used to address a somehow structured problem. In this context, polyhedral analysis and other theoretical and practical considerations are typically exploited to devise some special purpose techniques. This thesis tries to give some insights in both the above mentioned situations. The first part of the work is focused on general purpose cutting planes, which are probably the key ingredient behind the success of the current generation of MIP solvers. Chapter 1 presents a quick overview of the main ingredients of a branch-and-cut algorithm, while Chapter 2 recalls some results from the literature in the context of disjunctive cuts and their connections with Gomory mixed integer cuts. Chapter 3 presents a theoretical and computational investigation of disjunctive cuts. In particular, we analyze the connections between different normalization conditions (i.e., conditions to truncate the cone associated with disjunctive cutting planes) and other crucial aspects as cut rank, cut density and cut strength. We give a theoretical characterization of weak rays of the disjunctive cone that lead to dominated cuts, and propose a practical method to possibly strengthen those cuts arising from such weak extremal solution. Further, we point out how redundant constraints can affect the quality of the generated disjunctive cuts, and discuss possible ways to cope with them. Finally, Chapter 4 presents some preliminary ideas in the context of multiple-row cuts. Very recently, a series of papers have brought the attention to the possibility of generating cuts using more than one row of the simplex tableau at a time. Several interesting theoretical results have been presented in this direction, often revisiting and recalling other important results discovered more than 40 years ago. However, is not clear at all how these results can be exploited in practice. As stated, the chapter is a still work-in-progress and simply presents a possible way for generating two-row cuts from the simplex tableau arising from lattice-free triangles and some preliminary computational results. The second part of the thesis is instead focused on the heuristic and exact exploitation of integer programming techniques for hard combinatorial optimization problems in the context of routing applications. Chapters 5 and 6 present an integer linear programming local search algorithm for Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs). The overall procedure follows a general destroy-and-repair paradigm (i.e., the current solution is first randomly destroyed and then repaired in the attempt of finding a new improved solution) where a class of exponential neighborhoods are iteratively explored by heuristically solving an integer programming formulation through a general purpose MIP solver. Chapters 7 and 8 deal with exact branch-and-cut methods. Chapter 7 presents an extended formulation for the Traveling Salesman Problem with Time Windows (TSPTW), a generalization of the well known TSP where each node must be visited within a given time window. The polyhedral approaches proposed for this problem in the literature typically follow the one which has been proven to be extremely effective in the classical TSP context. Here we present an overall (quite) general idea which is based on a relaxed discretization of time windows. Such an idea leads to a stronger formulation and to stronger valid inequalities which are then separated within the classical branch-and-cut framework. Finally, Chapter 8 addresses the branch-and-cut in the context of Generalized Minimum Spanning Tree Problems (GMSTPs) (i.e., a class of NP-hard generalizations of the classical minimum spanning tree problem). In this chapter, we show how some basic ideas (and, in particular, the usage of general purpose cutting planes) can be useful to improve on branch-and-cut methods proposed in the literature.

Welfare provision in Sweden and the dominant position of the Sap

There have been almost fifty years since Harry Eckstein' s classic monograph, A Theory of Stable Democracy (Princeton, 1961), where he sketched out the basic tenets of the “congruence theory”, which was to become one of the most important and innovative contributions to understanding democratic rule. His next work, Division and Cohesion in Democracy, (Princeton University Press: 1966) is designed to serve as a plausibility probe for this 'theory' (ftn.) and is a case study of a Northern democratic system, Norway. What is more, this line of his work best exemplifies the contribution Eckstein brought to the methodology of comparative politics through his seminal article, “ “Case Study and Theory in Political Science” ” (in Greenstein and Polsby, eds., Handbook of Political Science, 1975), on the importance of the case study as an approach to empirical theory. This article demonstrates the special utility of “crucial case studies” in testing theory, thereby undermining the accepted wisdom in comparative research that the larger the number of cases the better. Although not along the same lines, but shifting the case study unit of research, I intend to take up here the challenge and build upon an equally unique political system, the Swedish one. Bearing in mind the peculiarities of the Swedish political system, my unit of analysis is going to be further restricted to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, the Svenska Arbetare Partiet. However, my research stays within the methodological framework of the case study theory inasmuch as it focuses on a single political system and party. The Swedish SAP endurance in government office and its electoral success throughout half a century (ftn. As of the 1991 election, there were about 56 years - more than half century - of interrupted social democratic "reign" in Sweden.) are undeniably a performance no other Social Democrat party has yet achieved in democratic conditions. Therefore, it is legitimate to inquire about the exceptionality of this unique political power combination. Which were the different components of this dominance power position, which made possible for SAP's governmental office stamina? I will argue here that it was the end-product of a combination of multifarious factors such as a key position in the party system, strong party leadership and organization, a carefully designed strategy regarding class politics and welfare policy. My research is divided into three main parts, the historical incursion, the 'welfare' part and the 'environment' part. The first part is a historical account of the main political events and issues, which are relevant for my case study. Chapter 2 is devoted to the historical events unfolding in the 1920-1960 period: the Saltsjoebaden Agreement, the series of workers' strikes in the 1920s and SAP's inception. It exposes SAP's ascent to power in the mid 1930s and the party's ensuing strategies for winning and keeping political office, that is its economic program and key economic goals. The following chapter - chapter 3 - explores the next period, i.e. the period from 1960s to 1990s and covers the party's troubled political times, its peak and the beginnings of the decline. The 1960s are relevant for SAP's planning of a long term economic strategy - the Rehn Meidner model, a new way of macroeconomic steering, based on the Keynesian model, but adapted to the new economic realities of welfare capitalist societies. The second and third parts of this study develop several hypotheses related to SAP's 'dominant position' (endurance in politics and in office) and test them afterwards. Mainly, the twin issues of economics and environment are raised and their political relevance for the party analyzed. On one hand, globalization and its spillover effects over the Swedish welfare system are important causal factors in explaining the transformative social-economic challenges the party had to put up with. On the other hand, Europeanization and environmental change influenced to a great deal SAP's foreign policy choices and its domestic electoral strategies. The implications of globalization on the Swedish welfare system will make the subject of two chapters - chapters four and five, respectively, whereupon the Europeanization consequences will be treated at length in the third part of this work - chapters six and seven, respectively. Apparently, at first sight, the link between foreign policy and electoral strategy is difficult to prove and uncanny, in the least. However, in the SAP's case there is a bulk of literature and public opinion statistical data able to show that governmental domestic policy and party politics are in a tight dependence to foreign policy decisions and sovereignty issues. Again, these country characteristics and peculiar causal relationships are outlined in the first chapters and explained in the second and third parts. The sixth chapter explores the presupposed relationship between Europeanization and environmental policy, on one hand, and SAP's environmental policy formulation and simultaneous agenda-setting at the international level, on the other hand. This chapter describes Swedish leadership in environmental policy formulation on two simultaneous fronts and across two different time spans. The last chapter, chapter eight - while trying to develop a conclusion, explores the alternative theories plausible in explaining the outlined hypotheses and points out the reasons why these theories do not fit as valid alternative explanation to my systemic corporatism thesis as the main causal factor determining SAP's 'dominant position'. Among the alternative theories, I would consider Traedgaardh L. and Bo Rothstein's historical exceptionalism thesis and the public opinion thesis, which alone are not able to explain the half century social democratic endurance in government in the Swedish case.

Assessing Household Food Waste in Italy: A Methodology for Detecting Drivers and Quantities

It has been estimated that one third of edible food destined for human consumption is lost or wasted along the food supply chain globally. Much of the waste comes from Global North, where consumers are considered as the bigger contributors. Different studies tried to analyze and estimate the Household Food Waste (HFW), especially in UK and Northern Europe. The result is that accurate studies at national level exist only in UK, Finland and Norway while no such studies are available in Italy, except for survey- based researches. Though, there is a widespread awareness that such methods might be not able to estimate Food Waste. Results emerging from literature clearly suggest that survey estimate inferior amounts of Food Waste as a result, if compared to waste sorting and weighting analysis or to diary studies. The hypothesis that household food waste is under-estimated when gathered through questionnaires has been enquired into. First, a literature review of behavioral economics and heuristics has been proposed; then, a literature review of the sector listing the existing methodologies to gather national data on Household Food Waste has been illustrated. Finally, a pilot experiment to test a mixed methodology is proposed. While literature suggests that four specific cognitive biases might be able to affect the reliability of answers in questionnaires, results of the present experiment clearly indicate that there is a relevant difference between how much the individual thinks to waste and he/she actually does. The result is a mixed methodology based on questionnaire, diary and waste sorting, able to overcome the cons of each single method.

Victorian letter writing and its representation in literature and painting: the case study of love letters

One of the main features of nineteenth-century fiction is the quasi-total disappearance of the epistolary novel that had had its heydays in the previous century. For this reason, some scholars have declared the “death” of the letter in literature after the transitional romantic period. However, Victorian novels overflow with letters that are embedded, quoted in part or described and commented on by narrators or characters. Even when its content is not revealed to the reader, the letter becomes a signifier loaded with meanings, also and particularly so, when it is burnt, torn, hidden, found or buried. The Postal Reform of 1839-40 caused the number of letters sent every year in Britain to grow from 75 to 410 million in only 14 years, and the mediatic campaign that supported it drew the attention of the population to the material aspects concerning this means of communication. Newspapers became more affordable too and they promoted a taste for sensationalism that often involved the “spectacularization” of private correspondence. Starting from an excursus on the history of the letter aimed at identifying the key aspects of the genre, this work deals with some real love correspondences from people belonging to different classes in the period from 1840 to the 1870s, to then analyse their fictional and pictorial counterparts. The general picture that emerges from this analysis is that of a Victorian society where letters were able to break down the boundaries between high and low forms of cultural expressions and where, more than ever, letters were present in people’s everyday lives as well as in the art and literature they enjoyed.

Indagine sulla nozione di fatto urbano ne L'architettura della città di Aldo Rossi

Questa tesi di dottorato di ricerca ha come oggetto la nozione di fatto urbano elaborata e presentata da Aldo Rossi nel libro L’architettura della città edito nel 1966. Ne L’architettura della città sono molteplici le definizioni e le forme con cui è enunciata la nozione di fatto urbano. Nel corso della tesi si è indagato come la costruzione nel tempo di questo concetto è stata preceduta da diversi studi giovanili intrapresi dal 1953, poi riorganizzati e sintetizzati a partire dal 1963 in un quaderno manoscritto dal titolo “Manuale di urbanistica”, in diversi appunti e in due quaderni manoscritti. Il lavoro di ricerca ha ricostruito la formulazione della nozione di fatto urbano attraverso gli scritti di Rossi. In questa direzione la rilevazione della partecipazione di Rossi a dibattiti, seminari, riviste, corsi universitari o ricerche accademiche è apparsa di fondamentale importanza, per comprendere la complessità di un lavoro non riconducibile a dei concetti disciplinari, ma alla formazione di una teoria trasmissibile. Il tentativo di comprendere e spiegare la nozione di fatto urbano ha condotto ad esaminare l’accezione con cui Rossi compone L’architettura della città, che egli stesso assimila ad un trattato. L’analisi ha identificato come la composizione del libro non è direttamente riferibile ad un uso classico della stesura editoriale del trattato, la quale ha tra i riferimenti più noti nel passato la promozione di una pratica corretta come nel caso vitruviano o un’impalcatura instauratrice di una nuova categoria come nel caso dell’Alberti. La mancanza di un sistema globale e prescrittivo a differenza dei due libri fondativi e il rimando non immediato alla stesura di un trattato classico è evidente ne L’architettura della città. Tuttavia la possibilità di condurre la ricerca su una serie di documenti inediti ha permesso di rilevare come negli scritti a partire dal 1953, sia maturata una trattazione delle questioni centrali alla nozione di fatto urbano ricca di intuizioni, che aspirano ad un’autonomia, sintetizzate, seppure in modo non sistematico, nella stesura del celebre libro. Si è così cercato di mettere in luce la precisazione nel tempo della nozione di fatto urbano e della sua elaborazione nei molteplici scritti antecedenti la pubblicazione de L’architettura della città, precisando come Rossi, pur costruendo su basi teoriche la nozione di fatto urbano, ne indichi una visione progressiva, ossia un uso operativo sulla città. La ricerca si è proposta come obiettivo di comprendere le radici culturali della nozione di fatto urbano sia tramite un’esplorazione degli interessi di Rossi nel suo percorso formativo sia rispetto alla definizione della struttura materiale del fatto urbano che Rossi individua nelle permanenze e che alimenta nella sua definizione con differenti apporti derivanti da altre discipline. Compito di questa ricerca è stato rileggere criticamente il percorso formativo compiuto da Rossi, a partire dal 1953, sottolinearne gli ambiti innovativi e precisarne i limiti descrittivi che non vedranno mai la determinazione di una nozione esatta, ma piuttosto la strutturazione di una sintesi complessa e ricca di riferimenti ad altri studi. In sintesi la tesi si compone di tre parti: 1. la prima parte, dal titolo “La teoria dei fatti urbani ne L’architettura della città”, analizza il concetto di fatto urbano inserendolo all’interno del più generale contesto teorico contenuto nel libro L’architettura della città. Questo avviene tramite la scomposizione del libro, la concatenazione delle sue argomentazioni e la molteplicità delle fonti esplicitamente citate da Rossi. In questo ambito si precisa la struttura del libro attraverso la rilettura dei riferimenti serviti a Rossi per comporre il suo progetto teorico. Inoltre si ripercorre la sua vita attraverso le varie edizioni, le ristampe, le introduzioni e le illustrazioni. Infine si analizza il ruolo del concetto di fatto urbano nel libro rilevando come sia posto in un rapporto paritetico con il titolo del libro, conseguendone un’accezione di «fatto da osservare» assimilabile all’uso proposto dalla geografia urbana francese dei primi del Novecento. 2. la seconda parte, dal titolo “La formazione della nozione di fatto urbano 1953-66”, è dedicata alla presentazione dell’elaborazione teorica negli scritti di Rossi prima de L’architettura della città, ossia dal 1953 al 1966. Questa parte cerca di descrivere le radici culturali di Rossi, le sue collaborazioni e i suoi interessi ripercorrendo la progressiva definizione della concezione di città nel tempo. Si è analizzato il percorso maturato da Rossi e i documenti scritti fin dagli anni in cui era studente alla Facoltà di Architettura Politecnico di Milano. Emerge un quadro complesso in cui i primi saggi, gli articoli e gli appunti testimoniano una ricerca intellettuale tesa alla costruzione di un sapere sullo sfondo del realismo degli anni Cinquanta. Rossi matura infatti un impegno culturale che lo porta dopo la laurea ad affrontare discorsi più generali sulla città. In particolare la sua importante collaborazione con la rivista Casabella-continuità, con il suo direttore Ernesto Nathan Rogers e tutto il gruppo redazionale segnano il periodo successivo in cui compare l’interesse per la letteratura urbanistica, l’arte, la sociologia, la geografia, l’economia e la filosofia. Seguono poi dal 1963 gli anni di lavoro insieme al gruppo diretto da Carlo Aymonino all’Istituto Universitario di Architettura di Venezia, e in particolare le ricerche sulla tipologia edilizia e la morfologia urbana, che portano Rossi a compiere una sintesi analitica per la fondazione di una teoria della città. Dall’indagine si rileva infatti come gli scritti antecedenti L’architettura della città sviluppano lo studio dei fatti urbani fino ad andare a costituire il nucleo teorico di diversi capitoli del libro. Si racconta così la genesi del libro, la cui scrittura si è svolta nell’arco di due anni, e le aspirazioni che hanno portato quello che era stato concepito come un “manuale d’urbanistica” a divenire quello che Rossi definirà “l’abbozzo di un trattato” per la formulazione di una scienza urbana. 3. la terza parte, dal titolo “La struttura materiale dei fatti urbani: la teoria della permanenza”, indaga monograficamente lo studio della città come un fatto materiale, un manufatto, la cui costruzione è avvenuta nel tempo e del tempo mantiene le tracce. Sul tema della teoria della permanenza è stato importante impostare un confronto con il dibattito vivo negli anni della ricostruzione dopo la guerra intorno ai temi delle preesistenze ambientali nella ricostruzione negli ambienti storici. Sono emersi fin da subito importanti la relazione con Ernesto Nathan Rogers, le discussioni sulle pagine di Casabella-Continuità, la partecipazione ad alcuni dibatti e ricerche. Si è inoltre Rilevato l’uso di diversi termini mutuati dalle tesi filosofiche di alcune personalità come Antonio Banfi e Enzo Paci, poi elaborati dal nucleo redazionale di Casabella-Continuità, di cui faceva parte anche Rossi. Sono così emersi alcuni spostamenti di senso e la formulazione di un vocabolario di termini all’interno della complessa vicenda della cultura architettonica degli anni Cinquanta e Sessanta. 1. Si è poi affrontato questo tema analizzando le forme con cui Rossi presenta la definizione della teoria della permanenza e i contributi desunti da alcuni autori per la costruzione scientifica di una teoria dell’architettura, il cui fine è quello di essere trasmissibile e di offrire strumenti di indagine concreti. Questa ricerca ha permesso di ipotizzare come il lavoro dei geografi francesi della prima metà del XX secolo, e in particolare il contributo più rilevante di Marcel Poëte e di Pierre Lavedan, costituiscono le fonti principali e il campo d’indagine maggiormente esplorato da Rossi per definire la teoria della permanenza e i monumenti. Le permanenze non sono dunque presentate ne L’architettura della città come il “tutto”, ma emergono da un metodo che sceglie di isolare i fatti urbani permanenti, consentendo così di compiere un’ipotesi su “ciò che resta” dopo le trasformazioni continue che operano nella città. Le fonti su cui ho lavorato sono state quelle annunciate da Rossi ne L’architettura della città, e più precisamente i testi nelle edizioni da lui consultate. Anche questo lavoro ha permesso un confronto dei testi che ha fatto emergere ne L’architettura della città l’uso di termini mutuati da linguaggi appartenenti ad altre discipline e quale sia l’uso di concetti estrapolati nella loro interezza. Presupposti metodologici Della formulazione della nozione di fatto urbano si sono indagate l’originalità dell’espressione, le connessioni presunte o contenute negli studi di Rossi sulla città attraverso la raccolta di fonti dirette e indirette che sono andate a formare un notevole corpus di scritti. Le fonti dirette più rilevanti sono state trovare nelle collezioni speciali del Getty Research Institute di Los Angeles in cui sono conservati gli Aldo Rossi Papers, questo archivio comprende materiali inediti dal 1954 al 1988. La natura dei materiali si presenta sotto forma di manoscritti, dattiloscritti, quaderni, documenti ciclostilati, appunti sparsi e una notevole quantità di corrispondenza. Negli Aldo Rossi Papers si trovano anche 32 dei 47 Quaderni Azzurri, le bozze de L’architettura della città e dell’ Autobiografia Scientifica. Per quanto riguarda in particolare L’architettura della città negli Aldo Rossi Papers sono conservati: un quaderno con il titolo “Manuale d’urbanistica, giugno 1963”, chiara prima bozza del libro, degli “Appunti per libro urbanistica estate/inverno 1963”, un quaderno con la copertina rossa datato 20 settembre 1964-8 agosto 1965 e un quaderno con la copertina blu datato 30 agosto 1965-15 dicembre 1965. La possibilità di accedere a questo archivio ha permesso di incrementare la bibliografia relativa agli studi giovanili consentendo di rileggere il percorso culturale in cui Rossi si è formato. E’ così apparsa fondamentale la rivalutazione di alcune questioni relative al realismo socialista che hanno portato a formare un più preciso quadro dei primi scritti di Rossi sullo sfondo di un complesso scenario intellettuale. A questi testi si è affiancata la raccolta delle ricerche universitarie, degli articoli pubblicati su riviste specializzate e degli interventi a dibattiti e seminari. A proposito de L’architettura della città si è raccolta un’ampia letteratura critica riferita sia al testo in specifico che ad una sua collocazione nella storia dell’architettura, mettendo in discussione alcune osservazioni che pongono L’architettura della città come un libro risolutivo e definitivo. Per quanto riguarda il capitolo sulla teoria della permanenza l’analisi è stata svolta a partire dai testi che Rossi stesso indicava ne L’architettura della città rivelando i diversi apporti della letteratura urbanistica francese, e permettendo alla ricerca di precisare le relazioni con alcuni scritti centrali e al contempo colti da Rossi come opportunità per intraprendere l’elaborazione dell’idea di tipo. Per quest’ultima parte si può precisare come Rossi formuli la sua idea di tipo in un contesto culturale dove l’interesse per questo tema era fondamentale. Dunque le fonti che hanno assunto maggior rilievo in quest’ultima fase emergono da un ricco panorama in cui Rossi compie diverse ricerche sia con il gruppo redazionale di Casabella-continuità, sia all’interno della scuola veneziana negli anni Sessanta, ma anche negli studi per l’ILSES e per l’Istituto Nazionale d’Urbanistica. RESEARCH ON THE NOTION OF URBAN ARTIFACT IN THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE CITY BY ALDO ROSSI. Doctoral candidate: Letizia Biondi Tutor: Valter Balducci The present doctoral dissertation deals with the notion of urban artifact that was formulated and presented by Aldo Rossi in his book The Architecture of the City, published in 1966. In The Architecture of the City, the notion of urban artifact is enunciated through a wide range of definitions and forms. In this thesis, a research was done on how the construction of this concept over time was preceded by various studies started in 1953 during the author’s youth, then re-organized and synthesized since 1963 in a manuscript titled “Manual of urban planning” and in two more manuscripts later on. The work of research re-constructed the formulation of the notion of urban artifact through Rossi’s writings. In this sense, the examination of Rossi’s participation in debates, seminars, reviews, university courses or academic researches was of fundamental importance to understand the complexity of a work which is not to be attributed to disciplinary concepts, but to the formulation of a communicable theory. The effort to understand and to explain the notion of urban artifact led to an examination of the meaning used by Rossi to compose The Architecture of the City, which he defines as similar to a treatise. Through this analysis, it emerged that the composition of the book is not directly ascribable to the classical use of editorial writing of a treatise, whose most famous references in the past are the promotion of a correct practice as in the case of Vitruvio’s treatise, or the use of a structure that introduces a new category as in the Alberti case. Contrary to the two founding books, the lack of a global and prescriptive system and the not immediate reference to the writing of a classical treatise are evident in The Architecture of the City. However, the possibility of researching on some unpublished documents allowed to discover that in the writings starting from 1953 the analysis of the questions that are at the core of the notion of urban artifact is rich of intuitions, that aim to autonomy and that would be synthesized, even though not in a systematic way, in his famous book. The attempt was that of highlighting the specification over time of the notion of urban artifact and its elaboration in the various writings preceding the publication of The Architecture of the City. It was also specified that, despite building on theoretical grounds, Rossi indicates a progressive version of the notion of urban artifact, that is a performing use in the city. The present research aims to understand the cultural roots of the notion of urban artifact in two main directions: analyzing, firstly, Rossi’s interests along his formation path and, secondly, the definition of material structure of an urban artifact identified by Rossi in the permanences and enriched by various contributions from other disciplines. The purpose of the present research is to revise the formation path made by Rossi in a critical way, starting by 1953, underlining its innovative aspects and identifying its describing limits, which will never lead to the formulation of an exact notion, but rather to the elaboration of a complex synthesis, enriched by references to other studies. In brief, the thesis is composed of three parts: 1. The first part, titled “The Theory of urban artifacts in The Architecture of the City”, analyzes the concept of urban artifact in the more general theoretical context of the book The Architecture of the City. Such analysis is done by “disassembling” the book, and by linking together the argumentations and the multiplicity of the sources which are explicitly quoted by Rossi. In this context, the book’s structure is defined more precisely through the revision of the references used by Rossi to compose his theoretical project. Moreover, the author’s life is traced back through the various editions, re-printings, introductions and illustrations. Finally, it is specified which role the concept of urban artifact has in the book, pointing out that it is placed in an equal relation with the book’s title; by so doing, the concept of urban artifact gets the new meaning of “fact to be observed”, similar to the use that was suggested by the French urban geography at the beginning of the 20th century. 2. The second part, titled “The formation of the notion of urban artifact 1953-66”, introduces the theoretical elaboration in Rossi’s writings before The Architecture of the City, that is from 1953 to 1966. This part tries to describe Rossi’s cultural roots, his collaborations and his interests, tracing back the progressive definition of his conception of city over time. The analysis focuses on the path followed by Rossi and on the documents that he wrote since the years as a student at the Department of Architecture at the Politecnico in Milan. This leads to a complex scenario of first essays, articles and notes that bear witness to the intellectual research aiming to the construction of a knowledge on the background of the Realism of the 1950s. Rossi develops, in fact, a cultural engagement that leads him after his studies to deal with more general issues about the city. In particular, his important collaboration with the architecture magazine “Casabella-continuità”, with the director Ernesto Nathan Rogers and with the whole redaction staff mark the following period when he starts getting interested in city planning literature, art, sociology, geography, economics and philosophy. Since 1963, Rossi has worked with the group directed by Carlo Aymonino at the “Istituto Universitario di Architettura” (University Institute of Architecture) in Venice, especially researching on building typologies and urban morphology. During these years, Rossi elaborates an analytical synthesis for the formulation of a theory about the city. From the present research, it is evident that the writings preceding The Architecture of the City develop the studies on urban artifacts, which will become theoretical core of different chapters of the book. In conclusion, the genesis of the book is described; written in two years, what was conceived to be an “urban planning manual” became a “treatise draft” for the formulation of an urban science, as Rossi defines it. 3. The third part is titled “The material structure of urban artifacts: the theory of permanence”. This research is made on the study of the city as a material fact, a manufacture, whose construction was made over time, bearing the traces of time. As far as the topic of permanence is concerned, it was also important to draw a comparison with the debate about the issues of environmental pre-existence of re-construction in historical areas, which was very lively during the years of the Reconstruction. Right from the beginning, of fundamental importance were the relationship with Ernesto Nathan Rogers, the discussions on the pages of Casabella-Continuità and the participation to some debates and researches. It is to note that various terms were taken by the philosophical thesis by some personalities such as Antonio Banfi and Enzo Paci, and then re-elaborated by the redaction staff at Casabella-Continuità, which Rossi took part in as well. Through this analysis, it emerged that there were some shifts in meaning and the formulation of a vocabulary of terms within the complex area of the architectonic culture in the 1950s and 1960s. Then, I examined the shapes in which Rossi introduces the definition of the theory of permanence and the references by some authors for the scientific construction of an architecture theory whose aim is being communicable and offering concrete research tools. Such analysis allowed making a hypothesis about the significance for Rossi of the French geographers of the first half of the 20th century: in particular, the work by Marcel Poëte and by Pierre Lavedan is the main source and the research area which Rossi mostly explored to define the theory of permanence and monuments. Therefore, in The Architecture of the City, permanencies are not presented as the “whole”, but they emerge from a method which isolates permanent urban artifacts, in this way allowing making a hypothesis on “what remains” after the continuous transformations made in the city. The sources examined were quoted by Rossi in The Architecture of the City; in particular I analyzed them in the same edition which Rossi referred to. Through such an analysis, it was possible to make a comparison of the texts with one another, which let emerge the use of terms taken by languages belonging to other disciplines in The Architecture of the City and which the use of wholly extrapolated concepts is. Methodological premises As far as the formulation of the notion of urban artifact is concerned, the analysis focuses on the originality of the expression, the connections that are assumed or contained in Rossi’s writings about the city, by collecting direct and indirect sources which formed a significant corpus of writings. The most relevant direct sources were found in the special collections of the Getty Research Institute in Los Angeles, where the “Aldo Rossi Papers” are conserved. This archive contains unpublished material from 1954 to 1988, such as manuscripts, typescripts, notebooks, cyclostyled documents, scraps and notes, and several letters. In the Aldo Rossi Papers there are also 32 out of the 47 Light Blue Notebooks (Quaderni Azzurri), the rough drafts of The Architecture of the City and of the “A Scientific Autobiography”. As regards The Architecture of the City in particular, the Aldo Rossi Papers preserve: a notebook by the title of “Urban planning manual, June, 1963”, which is an explicit first draft of the book; “Notes for urban planning book summer/winter 1963”; a notebook with a red cover dated September 20th, 1964 – August 8th, 1965; and a notebook with a blue cover dated August 30th, 1965 – December 15th, 1965. The possibility of accessing this archive allowed to increase the bibliography related to the youth studies, enabling a revision of the cultural path followed by Rossi’s education. To that end, it was fundamental to re-evaluate some issues linked to the socialist realism which led to a more precise picture of the first writings by Rossi against the background of the intellectual scenario where he formed. In addition to these texts, the collection of university researches, the articles published on specialized reviews and the speeches at debates and seminars were also examined. About The Architecture of the City, a wide-ranging critical literature was collected, related both to the text specifics and to its collocation in the story of architecture, questioning some observations which define The Architecture of the City as a conclusive and definite book. As far as the chapter on the permanence theory is concerned, the analysis started by the texts that Rossi indicated in The Architecture of the City, revealing the different contributions from the French literature on urban planning. This allowed to the present research a more specific definition of the connections to some central writings which, at the same time, were seen by Rossi as an opportunity to start up the elaboration of the idea of type. For this last part, it can be specified that Rossi formulates his idea of type in a cultural context where the interest in this topic was fundamental. Therefore, the sources which played a central role in this final phase emerge from an extensive panorama in which Rossi researched not only with the redaction staff at Casablanca-continuità and within the School of Venice in the 1960s, but also in his studies for the ILSES (Institute of the Region Lombardia for Economics and Social Studies) and for the National Institute of Urban Planning.

A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

Essays in Environmental Economics

This dissertation comprises four essays on the topic of environmental economics and industrial organization. In the first essay, we develop a two-country world differential game model with a polluting firm in each country to investigate the equilibrium of the game between firms when they decide to trade or not and to see under which conditions social welfare coincides with the market equilibrium. In the second essay, we built a model where firms strategically choose whether to participate in an auction/lottery to attain pollution permits, or instead invest in green R&D, to show that, somewhat counterintuitively, a desirable side effect of the auction is in fact that of fostering environmental R&D in an admissible range of the model parameters. The third essay investigates a second-best trade agreement between two countries when pollution spillovers are asymmetric to examine the strategic behavior of governments in using pollution taxes and tariffs under trade liberalization. The fouth essay studies the profitability of exogenous output constraint in a differential game model with price dynamics under the feedback strategies.

Social Welfare and Behavioral Public Policies

In this work I discuss several key aspects of welfare economics and policy analysis and I propose two original contributions to the growing field of behavioral public policymaking. After providing a historical perspective of welfare economics and an overview of policy analysis processes in the introductory chapter, in chapter 2 I discuss a debated issue of policymaking, the choice of the social welfare function. I contribute to this debate by proposing an original methodological contribution based on the analysis of the quantitative relationship among different social welfare functional forms commonly used by policy analysts. In chapter 3 I then discuss a behavioral policy to contrast indirect tax evasion based on the use of lotteries. I show that the predictions of my model based on non-expected utility are consistent with observed, and so far unexplained, empirical evidence of the policy success. Finally, in chapter 4 I investigate by mean of a laboratory experiment the effects of social influence on the individual likelihood to engage in altruistic punishment. I show that bystanders’ decision to engage in punishment is influenced by the punishment behavior of their peers and I suggest ways to enact behavioral policies that exploit this finding.