The Effectiveness of the Clean Development Mechanism – A law and economics analysis

Climate change has been acknowledged as a threat to humanity. Most scholars agree that to avert dangerous climate change and to transform economies into low-carbon societies, deep global emission reductions are required by the year 2050. Under the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the only market-based instrument that encourages industrialised countries to pursue emission reductions in developing countries. The CDM aims to pay the incremental finance necessary to operationalize emission reduction projects which are otherwise not financially viable. According to the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, the CDM should finance projects that are additional to those which would have happened anyway, contribute to sustainable development in the countries hosting the projects, and be cost-effective. To enable the identification of such projects, an institutional framework has been established by the Kyoto Protocol which lays out responsibilities for public and private actors. This thesis examines whether the CDM has achieved these objectives in practice and can thus be considered an effective tool to reduce emissions. To complete this investigation, the book applies economic theory and analyses the CDM from two perspectives. The first perspective is the supply-dimension which answers the question of how, in practice, the CDM system identified additional, cost-effective, sustainable projects and, generated emission reductions. The main contribution of this book is the second perspective, the compliance-dimension, which answers the question of whether industrialised countries effectively used the CDM for compliance with their Kyoto targets. The application of the CDM in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is used as a case-study. Where the analysis identifies inefficiencies within the supply or the compliance dimension, potential improvements of the legal framework are proposed and discussed.

Essays in Long-run Development and Spatial Economics

This thesis tries to further our understanding for why some countries today are more prosperous than others. It establishes that part of today's observed variation in several proxies such as income or gender inequality have been determined in the distant past. Chapter one shows that 450 years of (Catholic) Portuguese colonisation had a long-lasting impact in India when it comes to education and female emancipation. Furthermore I use a historical quasi-experiment that happened 250 years ago in order to show that different outcomes have different degrees of persitence over time. Educational gaps between males and females seemingly wash out a few decades after the public provision of schools. The male biased sex-ratios on the other hand stay virtually unchanged despite governmental efforts. This provides evidence that deep rooted son preferences are much harder to overcome, suggesting that a differential approach is needed to tackle sex-selective abortion and female neglect. The second chapter proposes improvements for the execution of Spatial Regression Discontinuity Designs. These suggestions are accompanied by a full-fledged spatial statistical package written in R. Chapter three introduces a quantitative economic geography model in order to study the peculiar evolution of the European urban system on its way to the Industrial Revolution. It can explain the shift of economic gravity from the Mediterranean towards the North-Sea ("little divergence"). The framework provides novel insights on the importance of agricultural trade costs and the peculiar geography of Europe with its extended coastline and dense network of navigable rivers.

Development of quantitative methods for sustainability assessment in process industry

The increasing aversion to technological risks of the society requires the development of inherently safer and environmentally friendlier processes, besides assuring the economic competitiveness of the industrial activities. The different forms of impact (e.g. environmental, economic and societal) are frequently characterized by conflicting reduction strategies and must be holistically taken into account in order to identify the optimal solutions in process design. Though the literature reports an extensive discussion of strategies and specific principles, quantitative assessment tools are required to identify the marginal improvements in alternative design options, to allow the trade-off among contradictory aspects and to prevent the “risk shift”. In the present work a set of integrated quantitative tools for design assessment (i.e. design support system) was developed. The tools were specifically dedicated to the implementation of sustainability and inherent safety in process and plant design activities, with respect to chemical and industrial processes in which substances dangerous for humans and environment are used or stored. The tools were mainly devoted to the application in the stages of “conceptual” and “basic design”, when the project is still open to changes (due to the large number of degrees of freedom) which may comprise of strategies to improve sustainability and inherent safety. The set of developed tools includes different phases of the design activities, all through the lifecycle of a project (inventories, process flow diagrams, preliminary plant lay-out plans). The development of such tools gives a substantial contribution to fill the present gap in the availability of sound supports for implementing safety and sustainability in early phases of process design. The proposed decision support system was based on the development of a set of leading key performance indicators (KPIs), which ensure the assessment of economic, societal and environmental impacts of a process (i.e. sustainability profile). The KPIs were based on impact models (also complex), but are easy and swift in the practical application. Their full evaluation is possible also starting from the limited data available during early process design. Innovative reference criteria were developed to compare and aggregate the KPIs on the basis of the actual sitespecific impact burden and the sustainability policy. Particular attention was devoted to the development of reliable criteria and tools for the assessment of inherent safety in different stages of the project lifecycle. The assessment follows an innovative approach in the analysis of inherent safety, based on both the calculation of the expected consequences of potential accidents and the evaluation of the hazards related to equipment. The methodology overrides several problems present in the previous methods proposed for quantitative inherent safety assessment (use of arbitrary indexes, subjective judgement, build-in assumptions, etc.). A specific procedure was defined for the assessment of the hazards related to the formations of undesired substances in chemical systems undergoing “out of control” conditions. In the assessment of layout plans, “ad hoc” tools were developed to account for the hazard of domino escalations and the safety economics. The effectiveness and value of the tools were demonstrated by the application to a large number of case studies concerning different kinds of design activities (choice of materials, design of the process, of the plant, of the layout) and different types of processes/plants (chemical industry, storage facilities, waste disposal). An experimental survey (analysis of the thermal stability of isomers of nitrobenzaldehyde) provided the input data necessary to demonstrate the method for inherent safety assessment of materials.

Transport infrastructure and economic development in least developed countries: the case of Afghanistan

This PhD thesis tries to show the impact of transport infrastructure in economic development in least developed countries and in particular in the case of Afghanistan. Some least developed countries during 1990 to 1999 experienced lack of investment in transportation. Lack of investment further increased the economic development gap between developed and least developed countries. Moreover, lack of literature and research in poor countries such as Afghanistan encouraged me to do my research in this country in order to unveil the problems, facing poor people who are living in inaccessible places and suffer from lack of economic opportunities and long term unemployment. This thesis shows the effect of inaccessibility and immobility in economic opportunities and basic social services in Afghanistan. This thesis is important because it covers the role of transport infrastructures at the moment that international community promised to rebuild the infrastructures of post conflict Afghanistan.

Birth, Development and Progressive Institutionalization of the Ombudsman in the Russian Legal and Political System

One of the current trends in governance and legal development in Russia is aimed at establishing a modern, efficient and internationally harmonised system of safeguards of human rights and civil liberties. A fairly recent addition to this system has been the institution of ombudsman as a public authority specialised in promoting and protecting human rights and civil liberties. The introduction of this institution as well as its formalisation at the constitutional and legislative levels has been increasingly relevant and important, as it raises the dealings between the state and the individual to a new level. As an independent public institution resolving conflicts between citizens and government authorities, the ombudsman makes steps, within the scope of his jurisdiction, to restitute individual rights, and helps to enhance the reputation of government. The present work describes and assesses the birth, development and institutionalization process of the Ombudsman Office in the Russian Federation, at federal and regional levels, with a particular emphasis on the role of international references and cooperation for institution building. Ombudsmen have done a magnificent job in demonstrating value with the resolution of individual and systemic complaints; subsequent improvements to government; and economic savings by mitigating litigation costs.

Essays in Economic Geography and Long-Term Development

This dissertation has two main themes: first, the economic impact of tourism on cities and, secondly, the determinants of European long-run development, with a focus on the pre-Industrial era. The common thread is the attempt to develop economic geography models that incorporate spatial frictions and are liable to be given empirical content. Chapter 1, written in conjunction with G. Alfredo Minerva, provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between tourism and economic activity across Italian municipalities, and lays down the basic elements of an urban theory of tourism in an a-spatial setting. Chapter 2 extends these ideas to a quantitative urban framework to study the economic impact and the welfare consequences of tourism into the city of Venice. The model is given empirical content thanks to a large collection of data at the Census tract level for the Municipality of Venice, and then used to perform counterfactual policty analysis. In chapter 3, with Matteo Santacesaria, we consider a setting where agents are continuously distributed over a two-dimensional heterogeneous geography, and are allowed to do business at a finite set of markets. We study the equilibrium partition of the economic space into a collection of mutually-exclusive market areas, and provide condition for this equilibrium partition to exist and to be unique. Finally, chapter 4 "The rise of (urban) Europe: a Quantitative-Spatial analysis", co-authored with Matteo Cervellati and Alex Lehner, sets up a quantitative economic geography model to understand the roots of the Industrial Revolution, in an attempt to match the evolution of the European urban network, and the corresponding city-size distribution, over the period A.D. 1000-1850. It highlights the importance of agricultural trade across cities for the emergence of large manufacturing hubs.

"Ancestry, gender and language - The role of culture in economic development"

This thesis is a combination of research questions in development economics and economics of culture, with an emphasis on the role of ancestry, gender and language policies in shaping inequality of opportunities and socio-economic outcomes across different segments of a society. The first chapter shows both theoretically and empirically that heterogeneity in risk attitudes can be traced to the ethnic origins and ancestral way of living. In particular, I construct a measure of historical nomadism at the ethnicity level and link it to contemporary individual-level data on various proxies of risk attitudes. I exploit exogenous variation in biodiversity to build a novel instrument for nomadism: distance to domestication points. I find that descendants of ethnic groups that historically practiced nomadism (i) are more willing to take risks, (ii) value security less, and (iii) have riskier health behavior. The second chapter evaluates the nature of a trade-off between the advantages of female labor participation and the positive effects of female education. This work exploits a triple difference identification strategy relying on exogenous spike in cotton price and spatial variation in suitability for cotton, and split sample analyses based on the exogenous allocation of land contracts. Results show that gender differences in parental investments in patriarchal societies can be reinforced by the type of agricultural activity, while positive economic shocks may further exacerbate this bias, additionally crowding out higher possibilities to invest in female education. The third chapter brings novel evidence of the role of the language policy in building national sentiments, affecting educational and occupational choices. Here I focus on the case of Uzbekistan and estimate the effects of exposure to the Latin alphabet on informational literacy, education and career choices. I show that alphabet change affects people's informational literacy and the formation of certain educational and labour market trends.

The Allocation of Asylum Responsibilities in the EU: a Law & Economics Analysis

This dissertation focuses on how the design of the EU asylum allocation system, the system that allocates the EU’s asylum duties to its member states, relates to the development of asylum crises. The current EU asylum allocation system, the Dublin system, has in the literature frequently been blamed as an important factor that contributed to the events that occurred during the 2015/2016 EU Asylum Crisis. In the first part of this dissertation, I use a Law & Economics methodology based on rational choice theory to study how the Dublin system creates behavioural incentives for both asylum seekers and member states and how this relates to the events during the 2015/2016 EU Asylum Crisis. In the second part, I analyse how behavioural incentives for asylum seekers and member states would change if the EU would replace the Dublin system with a so-called (tradable) quota system. By comparing the outcomes of the first and the second part of the dissertation I make some normative recommendations on desirable features for an EU asylum allocation system that provides better incentives for asylum seekers and member states.

Essays in development and political economy

This thesis includes three papers studying diverse questions in development, economic history and political economy. The first two chapters, that fall under development and economic history, use novel forms of text data and analysis to answer the questions at hand. The first chapter studies the possible impact of a historically matrilineal and matrilocal caste group on present day outcomes of gender equality. It introduces a novel surname strategy using electoral data to deduce caste from the surnames of electors and overcomes the unavailability of caste data. It shows proof of persistence of caste in space. And finally, following a matching exercise it concludes that the effect of the matrilineal and matrilocal caste on present day gender outcomes might not be as strong as previously believed. The second paper studies how discriminatory fake news arises and spatially diffuses. It focuses on India at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: on March 30, a Muslim convention (the Tablighi Jamaat) in New Delhi became publicly recognized as a COVID hotspot, and the next day, fake news on Muslims intentionally spreading the virus spiked. Using Twitter data, it finds, in cross-sectional and difference-in-difference settings, that discriminatory fake news became much more widespread after March 30 (1) in New Delhi, (2) in districts closer to New Delhi, and (3) in districts with higher social media interactions with New Delhi. Further, it shows that, after March 30, discriminatory fake news was more common in districts historically exposed to attacks by Muslim groups. The final paper is a political economy paper that studies the short term and long term effect of earlier eligibility on voting in the context of a large North Italian municipality setting with little institutional barriers to voting. It also studies the differing mobilisation of members in the same household by newly eligible voters.