Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

Effects of Resources Exploitation on Water Quality: case studies in Salt Water Intrusion and Acid Mine Drainage

Throughout the world, pressures on water resources are increasing, mainly as a result of human activity. Because of their accessibility, groundwater and surface water are the most used reservoirs. The evaluation of the water quality requires the identification of the interconnections among the water reservoirs, natural landscape features, human activities and aquatic health. This study focuses on the estimation of the water pollution linked to two different environmental issues: salt water intrusion and acid mine drainage related to the exploitation of natural resources. Effects of salt water intrusion occurring in the shallow aquifer north of Ravenna (Italy) was analysed through the study of ion- exchange occurring in the area and its variance throughout the year, applying a depth-specific sampling method. In the study area were identified ion exchange, calcite and dolomite precipitation, and gypsum dissolution and sulphate reduction as the main processes controlling the groundwater composition. High concentrations of arsenic detected only at specific depth indicate its connexion with the organic matter. Acid mine drainage effects related to the tin extraction in the Bolivian Altiplano was studied, on water and sediment matrix. Water contamination results strictly dependent on the seasonal variation, on pH and redox conditions. During the dry season the strong evaporation and scarce water flow lead to low pH values, high concentrations of heavy metals in surface waters and precipitation of secondary minerals along the river, which could be released in oxidizing conditions as demonstrated through the sequential extraction analysis. The increase of the water flow during the wet season lead to an increase of pH values and a decrease in heavy metal concentrations, due to dilution effect and, as e.g. for the iron, to precipitation.

Starch distribution in pear tree organs in relation to training systems, rootstocks and fruit quality

Starch is the main form in which plants store carbohydrates reserves, both in terms of amounts and distribution among different plant species. Carbohydrates are direct products of photosynthetic activity, and it is well know that yield efficiency and production are directly correlated to the amount of carbohydrates synthesized and how these are distributed among vegetative and reproductive organs. Nowadays, in pear trees, due to the modernization of orchards, through the introduction of new rootstocks and the development of new training systems, the understanding and the development of new approaches regarding the distribution and storage of carbohydrates, are required. The objective of this research work was to study the behavior of carbohydrate reserves, mainly starch, in different pear tree organs and tissues: i.e., fruits, leaves, woody organs, roots and flower buds, at different physiological stages during the season. Starch in fruit is accumulated at early stages, and reached a maximum concentration during the middle phase of fruit development; after that, its degradation begins with a rise in soluble carbohydrates. Moreover, relationships between fruit starch degradation and different fruit traits, soluble sugars and organic acids were established. In woody organs and roots, an interconversion between starch and soluble carbohydrates was observed during the dormancy period that confirms its main function in supporting the growth and development of new tissues during the following spring. Factors as training systems, rootstocks, types of bearing wood, and their position on the canopy, influenced the concentrations of starch and soluble carbohydrates at different sampling dates. Also, environmental conditions and cultural practices must be considered to better explain these results. Thus, a deeper understanding of the dynamics of carbohydrates reserves within the plant could provide relevant information to improve several management practices to increase crop yield efficiency.

Development and characterization of a distributed measurement system for the evaluation of voltage quality in electric power networks

The research activity carried out during the PhD course in Electrical Engineering belongs to the branch of electric and electronic measurements. The main subject of the present thesis is a distributed measurement system to be installed in Medium Voltage power networks, as well as the method developed to analyze data acquired by the measurement system itself and to monitor power quality. In chapter 2 the increasing interest towards power quality in electrical systems is illustrated, by reporting the international research activity inherent to the problem and the relevant standards and guidelines emitted. The aspect of the quality of voltage provided by utilities and influenced by customers in the various points of a network came out only in recent years, in particular as a consequence of the energy market liberalization. Usually, the concept of quality of the delivered energy has been associated mostly to its continuity. Hence the reliability was the main characteristic to be ensured for power systems. Nowadays, the number and duration of interruptions are the “quality indicators” commonly perceived by most customers; for this reason, a short section is dedicated also to network reliability and its regulation. In this contest it should be noted that although the measurement system developed during the research activity belongs to the field of power quality evaluation systems, the information registered in real time by its remote stations can be used to improve the system reliability too. Given the vast scenario of power quality degrading phenomena that usually can occur in distribution networks, the study has been focused on electromagnetic transients affecting line voltages. The outcome of such a study has been the design and realization of a distributed measurement system which continuously monitor the phase signals in different points of a network, detect the occurrence of transients superposed to the fundamental steady state component and register the time of occurrence of such events. The data set is finally used to locate the source of the transient disturbance propagating along the network lines. Most of the oscillatory transients affecting line voltages are due to faults occurring in any point of the distribution system and have to be seen before protection equipment intervention. An important conclusion is that the method can improve the monitored network reliability, since the knowledge of the location of a fault allows the energy manager to reduce as much as possible both the area of the network to be disconnected for protection purposes and the time spent by technical staff to recover the abnormal condition and/or the damage. The part of the thesis presenting the results of such a study and activity is structured as follows: chapter 3 deals with the propagation of electromagnetic transients in power systems by defining characteristics and causes of the phenomena and briefly reporting the theory and approaches used to study transients propagation. Then the state of the art concerning methods to detect and locate faults in distribution networks is presented. Finally the attention is paid on the particular technique adopted for the same purpose during the thesis, and the methods developed on the basis of such approach. Chapter 4 reports the configuration of the distribution networks on which the fault location method has been applied by means of simulations as well as the results obtained case by case. In this way the performance featured by the location procedure firstly in ideal then in realistic operating conditions are tested. In chapter 5 the measurement system designed to implement the transients detection and fault location method is presented. The hardware belonging to the measurement chain of every acquisition channel in remote stations is described. Then, the global measurement system is characterized by considering the non ideal aspects of each device that can concur to the final combined uncertainty on the estimated position of the fault in the network under test. Finally, such parameter is computed according to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements, by means of a numeric procedure. In the last chapter a device is described that has been designed and realized during the PhD activity aiming at substituting the commercial capacitive voltage divider belonging to the conditioning block of the measurement chain. Such a study has been carried out aiming at providing an alternative to the used transducer that could feature equivalent performance and lower cost. In this way, the economical impact of the investment associated to the whole measurement system would be significantly reduced, making the method application much more feasible.

Chemical, biochemical and microbiological indicators to assess soil quality in temperate agro-ecosystems

Soil is a critically important component of the earth’s biosphere. Developing agricultural production systems able to conserve soil quality is essential to guarantee the current and future capacity of soil to provide goods and services. This study investigates the potential of microbial and biochemical parameters to be used as early and sensitive soil quality indicators. Their ability to differentiate plots under contrasting fertilization regimes is evaluated based also on their sensitivity to seasonal fluctuations of environmental conditions and on their relationship with soil chemical parameters. Further, the study addresses some of the critical methodological aspects of microplate-based fluorimetric enzyme assays, in order to optimize assay conditions and evaluate their suitability to be used as a toll to asses soil quality. The study was based on a long-term field experiment established in 1966 in the Po valley (Italy). The soil was cropped with maize (Z. mays L.) and winter wheat (T. aestivum L.) and received no organic fertilization, crop residue or manure, in combination with increasing levels of mineral N fertilizer. The soil microbiota responded to manure amendment increasing it biomass and activity and changing its community composition. Crop residue effect was much more limited. Mineral N fertilization stimulated crop residue mineralization, shifted microbial community composition and influenced N and P cycling enzyme activities. Seasonal fluctuations of environmental factors affected the soil microbiota. However microbial and biochemical parameters seasonality did not hamper the identification of fertilization-induced effects. Soil microbial community abundance, function and composition appeared to be strongly related to soil organic matter content and composition, confirming the close link existing between these soil quality indicators. Microplate-based fluorimetric enzyme assays showed potential to be used as fast and throughput toll to asses soil quality, but required proper optimization of the assay conditions for a precise estimation of enzymes maximum potential activity.

Effect of training systems and pruning methods on fruit quality in apple

The introduction of dwarfed rootstocks in apple crop has led to a new concept of intensive planting systems with the aim of producing early high yield and with returns of the initial high investment. Although yield is an important aspect to the grower, the consumer has become demanding regards fruit quality and is generally attracted by appearance. To fulfil the consumer’s expectations the grower may need to choose a proper training system along with an ideal pruning technique, which ensure a good light distribution in different parts of the canopy and a marketable fruit quality in terms of size and skin colour. Although these aspects are important, these fruits might not reach the proper ripening stage within the canopy because they are often heterogeneous. To describe the variability present in a tree, a software (PlantToon®), was used to recreate the tree architecture in 3D in the two training systems. The ripening stage of each of the fruits was determined using a non-destructive device (DA-Meter), thus allowing to estimate the fruit ripening variability. This study deals with some of the main parameters that can influence fruit quality and ripening stage within the canopy and orchard management techniques that can ameliorate a ripening fruit homogeneity. Significant differences in fruit quality were found within the canopies due to their position, flowering time and bud wood age. Bi-axis appeared to be suitable for high density planting, even though the fruit quality traits resulted often similar to those obtained with a Slender Spindle, suggesting similar fruit light availability within the canopies. Crop load confirmed to be an important factor that influenced fruit quality as much as the interesting innovative pruning method “Click”, in intensive planting systems.