Numerical simulations of magma chamber dynamics at Campi Flegrei, and associated seismicity, deformation and gravity changes

Understanding the complex relationships between quantities measured by volcanic monitoring network and shallow magma processes is a crucial headway for the comprehension of volcanic processes and a more realistic evaluation of the associated hazard. This question is very relevant at Campi Flegrei, a volcanic quiescent caldera immediately north-west of Napoli (Italy). The system activity shows a high fumarole release and periodic ground slow movement (bradyseism) with high seismicity. This activity, with the high people density and the presence of military and industrial buildings, makes Campi Flegrei one of the areas with higher volcanic hazard in the world. In such a context my thesis has been focused on magma dynamics due to the refilling of shallow magma chambers, and on the geophysical signals detectable by seismic, deformative and gravimetric monitoring networks that are associated with this phenomenologies. Indeed, the refilling of magma chambers is a process frequently occurring just before a volcanic eruption; therefore, the faculty of identifying this dynamics by means of recorded signal analysis is important to evaluate the short term volcanic hazard. The space-time evolution of dynamics due to injection of new magma in the magma chamber has been studied performing numerical simulations with, and implementing additional features in, the code GALES (Longo et al., 2006), recently developed and still on the upgrade at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in Pisa (Italy). GALES is a finite element code based on a physico-mathematical two dimensional, transient model able to treat fluids as multiphase homogeneous mixtures, compressible to incompressible. The fundamental equations of mass, momentum and energy balance are discretised both in time and space using the Galerkin Least-Squares and discontinuity-capturing stabilisation technique. The physical properties of the mixture are computed as a function of local conditions of magma composition, pressure and temperature.The model features enable to study a broad range of phenomenologies characterizing pre and sin-eruptive magma dynamics in a wide domain from the volcanic crater to deep magma feeding zones. The study of displacement field associated with the simulated fluid dynamics has been carried out with a numerical code developed by the Geophysical group at the University College Dublin (O’Brien and Bean, 2004b), with whom we started a very profitable collaboration. In this code, the seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous media with free surface (e.g. the Earth’s surface) is simulated using a discrete elastic lattice where particle interactions are controlled by the Hooke’s law. This method allows to consider medium heterogeneities and complex topography. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations have been defined within a coordinate project (INGV-DPC 2004-06 V3_2 “Research on active volcanoes, precursors, scenarios, hazard and risk - Campi Flegrei”), to which this thesis contributes, and many researchers experienced on Campi Flegrei in volcanological, seismic, petrological, geochemical fields, etc. collaborate. Numerical simulations of magma and rock dynamis have been coupled as described in the thesis. The first part of the thesis consists of a parametric study aimed at understanding the eect of the presence in magma of carbon dioxide in magma in the convection dynamics. Indeed, the presence of this volatile was relevant in many Campi Flegrei eruptions, including some eruptions commonly considered as reference for a future activity of this volcano. A set of simulations considering an elliptical magma chamber, compositionally uniform, refilled from below by a magma with volatile content equal or dierent from that of the resident magma has been performed. To do this, a multicomponent non-ideal magma saturation model (Papale et al., 2006) that considers the simultaneous presence of CO2 and H2O, has been implemented in GALES. Results show that the presence of CO2 in the incoming magma increases its buoyancy force promoting convection ad mixing. The simulated dynamics produce pressure transients with frequency and amplitude in the sensitivity range of modern geophysical monitoring networks such as the one installed at Campi Flegrei . In the second part, simulations more related with the Campi Flegrei volcanic system have been performed. The simulated system has been defined on the basis of conditions consistent with the bulk of knowledge of Campi Flegrei and in particular of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 B.P.), commonly considered as reference for a future high intensity eruption in this area. The magmatic system has been modelled as a long dyke refilling a small shallow magma chamber; magmas with trachytic and phonolitic composition and variable volatile content of H2O and CO2 have been considered. The simulations have been carried out changing the condition of magma injection, the system configuration (magma chamber geometry, dyke size) and the resident and refilling magma composition and volatile content, in order to study the influence of these factors on the simulated dynamics. Simulation results allow to follow each step of the gas-rich magma ascent in the denser magma, highlighting the details of magma convection and mixing. In particular, the presence of more CO2 in the deep magma results in more ecient and faster dynamics. Through this simulations the variation of the gravimetric field has been determined. Afterward, the space-time distribution of stress resulting from numerical simulations have been used as boundary conditions for the simulations of the displacement field imposed by the magmatic dynamics on rocks. The properties of the simulated domain (rock density, P and S wave velocities) have been based on data from literature on active and passive tomographic experiments, obtained through a collaboration with A. Zollo at the Dept. of Physics of the Federici II Univeristy in Napoli. The elasto-dynamics simulations allow to determine the variations of the space-time distribution of deformation and the seismic signal associated with the studied magmatic dynamics. In particular, results show that these dynamics induce deformations similar to those measured at Campi Flegrei and seismic signals with energies concentrated on the typical frequency bands observed in volcanic areas. The present work shows that an approach based on the solution of equations describing the physics of processes within a magmatic fluid and the surrounding rock system is able to recognise and describe the relationships between geophysical signals detectable on the surface and deep magma dynamics. Therefore, the results suggest that the combined study of geophysical data and informations from numerical simulations can allow in a near future a more ecient evaluation of the short term volcanic hazard.

Customer Evolution in Sales Channel Migration

This research has been triggered by an emergent trend in customer behavior: customers have rapidly expanded their channel experiences and preferences beyond traditional channels (such as stores) and they expect the company with which they do business to have a presence on all these channels. This evidence has produced an increasing interest in multichannel customer behavior and it has motivated several researchers to study the customers’ channel choices dynamics in multichannel environment. We study how the consumer decision process for channel choice and response to marketing communications evolves for a cohort of new customers. We assume a newly acquired customer’s decisions are described by a “trial” model, but the customer’s choice process evolves to a “post-trial” model as the customer learns his or her preferences and becomes familiar with the firm’s marketing efforts. The trial and post-trial decision processes are each described by different multinomial logit choice models, and the evolution from the trial to post-trial model is determined by a customer-level geometric distribution that captures the time it takes for the customer to make the transition. We utilize data for a major retailer who sells in three channels – retail store, the Internet, and via catalog. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods that allow for cross-customer heterogeneity. This allows us to have distinct parameters estimates for a trial and an after trial stages and to estimate the quickness of this transit at the individual level. The results show for example that the customer decision process indeed does evolve over time. Customers differ in the duration of the trial period and marketing has a different impact on channel choice in the trial and post-trial stages. Furthermore, we show that some people switch channel decision processes while others don’t and we found that several factors have an impact on the probability to switch decision process. Insights from this study can help managers tailor their marketing communication strategy as customers gain channel choice experience. Managers may also have insights on the timing of the direct marketing communications. They can predict the duration of the trial phase at individual level detecting the customers with a quick, long or even absent trial phase. They can even predict if the customer will change or not his decision process over time, and they can influence the switching process using specific marketing tools

Phylogeny and population dynamics in European Reticulitermes and Kalotermes genera (Insecta, Isoptera)

The aim of this thesis is to detect the phylogeny and the population dynamics of the European termites of the genera Reticulitermes and Kalotermes, by the use of different mitochondrial (16S, COI/tRNA/COII, CR) and nuclear (microsatellites and Inter-SINE) molecular markers. In the phylogenetic analyses, the obtained results have well defined the cladogenetic events that generated the nowadays species biodiversity of the genus Reticulitermes, while the analysis of the Kalotermes flavicollis taxon showed the presence of at least four genetic clades, defined on the basis of the geographical distance. The second part of the thesis is centred on the population dynamics of two species: Reticulitermes urbis and Kalotermes flavicollis. The first species, native of the Balkans, is known to be present in some cities of Italy and France. I’ve analyzed the colony genetic structure of the introduced population of Bagnacavallo (RA, Italy), using nine microsatellite loci. The obtained results are in accordance with those obtained from another population in France: this species in fact confirms its invasive and infestation capacities. The analysis of the natural population of K. flavicollis, performed with a combination of mitochondrial (control region) and nuclear (microsatellites and I-SINE) markers, clearly evidenced the presence of two genetic lineages that coexist in the same area. Moreover, results clearly indicate that the cross-breeding is allowed. Finally, the whole results are discussed in a comparative view to better understand the differences in ecology, evolutionary dynamics and colony social structure between these two genera.

Dynamics of the halo gas in disc galaxies

This Thesis studies the dynamics of hot and cold gas outside the plane in galaxies like the Milky-Way (extra-planar gas) and focuses on the interaction between disc and halo material. Stationary models for the cold phase of the extra-planar gas are presented. They show that the kinematics of this phase must be influenced by the interaction with an ambient medium that we identify as the hot cosmological corona that surrounds disc galaxies. To study this interaction a novel hydrodynamical code has been implemented and a series of hydrodynamical simulations has been run to investigate the mass and momentum exchange between the cold extra-planar gas clouds and the hot corona. These simulations show that the coronal gas can condense efficiently in the turbulent wakes that form behind the cold clouds and it can be accreted by the disc to sustain star formation. They also predict that the corona cannot be a static structure but it must rotate and lag by approximately 80-120 km/s with respect to the disc. Implications of the results of this Thesis for the evolution of star-forming galaxies and for the large-scale dynamics of galactic coronae are also briefly discussed.

Thermochronological evolution of the Eastern Pontides and the Eastern Anatolian Plateau and NW Lesser Caucasus (Turkey, Georgia, Armenia)

The analysis of apatite fission tracks is applied to the study of the syn- and post-collisional thermochronological evolution of a vast area that includes the Eastern Pontides, their continuation in the Lesser Caucasus of Georgia (Adjara-Trialeti zone) and northern Armenia, and the eastern Anatolian Plateau. The resulting database is then integrated with the data presented by Okay et al. (2010) for the Bitlis Pütürge Massif, i.e. the western portion of the Bitlis-Zagros collision zone between Arabia and Eurasia. The mid-Miocene exhumation episode along the Black Sea coast and Lesser Caucasus of Armenia documented in this dissertation mirrors the age of collision between the Eurasian and Arabian plates along the Bitlis suture zone. We argue that tectonic stresses generated along the Bitlis collision zone were transmitted northward across eastern Anatolia and focused (i) at the rheological boundary between the Anatolian continental lithosphere and the (quasi)oceanic lithosphere of the Black Sea, and (ii) along major pre-existing discontinuities like the Sevan-Akera suture zone.The integration of both present-day crustal dynamics (GPS-derived kinematics and distribution of seismicity) and thermochronological data presented in this paper provides a comparison between short- and long-term deformation patterns for the entire eastern Anatolia-Transcaucasian region. Two successive stages of Neogene deformation of the northern foreland of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone can be inferred. (i) Early and Middle Miocene: continental deformation was concentrated along the Arabia-Eurasia (Bitlis) collision zone but tectonic stress was also transferred northward across eastern Anatolia, focusing along the eastern Black Sea continent-ocean rheological transition and along major pre-existing structural discontinuities. (ii) Since Late-Middle Miocene time the westward translation of Anatolia and the activation of the North and Eastern Anatolian Fault systems have reduced efficient northward stress transfer.

Hydrodynamical simulations of early-type galaxies: effects of galaxy shape and stellar dynamics on hot coronae

Early-Type galaxies (ETGs) are embedded in hot (10^6-10^7 K), X-ray emitting gaseous haloes, produced mainly by stellar winds and heated by Type Ia supernovae explosions, by the thermalization of stellar motions and occasionally by the central super-massive black hole (SMBH). In particular, the thermalization of the stellar motions is due to the interaction between the stellar and the SNIa ejecta and the hot interstellar medium (ISM) already residing in the ETG. A number of different astrophysical phenomena determine the X-ray properties of the hot ISM, such as stellar population formation and evolution, galaxy structure and internal kinematics, Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) presence, and environmental effects. With the aid of high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations performed on state-of-the-art galaxy models, in this Thesis we focus on the effects of galaxy shape, stellar kinematics and star formation on the evolution of the X-ray coronae of ETGs. Numerical simulations show that the relative importance of flattening and rotation are functions of the galaxy mass: at low galaxy masses, adding flattening and rotation induces a galactic wind, thus lowering the X-ray luminosity; at high galaxy masses the angular momentum conservation keeps the central regions of rotating galaxies at low density, whereas in non-rotating models a denser and brighter atmosphere is formed. The same dependence from the galaxy mass is present in the effects of star formation (SF): in light galaxies SF contributes to increase the spread in Lx, while at high galaxy masses the halo X-ray properties are marginally sensitive to SF effects. In every case, the star formation rate at the present epoch quite agrees with observations, and the massive, cold gaseous discs are partially or completely consumed by SF on a time-scale of few Gyr, excluding the presence of young stellar discs at the present epoch.

Transposable elements dynamics in taxa with different reproductive strategies or speciation rate

In recent years the advances in genomics allowed to understand the importance of Transposable Elements (TE) in the evolution of eukaryotic genomes. In this thesis I face two aspects of the TE impact on the in the animal kingdom. The first part is a comparison of the dynamics of the TE dynamics in three species of stick-insects of the Genus Bacillus. I produced three random genomic libraries of 200 Kbps for the three parental species of the taxon: a gonochoric population of Bacillus rossius (facultative parthenogenetic), Bacillus grandii (gonochoric) and Bacillus atticus (obligate parthenogenetic). The unisexual taxon Bacillus atticus does not shows dramatic differences in TE total content and activity with respect to Bacillus grandii and Bacillus rossius. This datum does not confirm the trend observed in other animal models in which unisexual taxa tend to repress the activity of TE to escape the extinction by accumulation of harmful mutations. In the second part I tried to add a contribute to the debate initiated in recent years about the possibility that a high TE content is linked to a high rate of speciation. I designed an evolutionary framework to establish the different rate of speciation among two or more taxa, then I compared TE dynamics considering the different rates of speciation. The species dataset comprises: 29 mammals, four birds, two fish and two insects. On the whole the majority of comparisons confirms the expected trend. In particular the amount of species analyzed in Mammalia allowed me to get a statistical support (p<0,05) of the fact that the TE activity of recently mobilized elements is positively related with the rate of speciation.

The dynamics of early-type galaxies as a tool to understand their hot coronae and their IMF

Dynamical models of galaxies are a powerful tool to study and understand several astrophysical problems related to galaxy formation and evolution. This thesis is focussed on a particular type of dynamical models, that are widely used in literature, and are based on the solution of the Jeans equations. By means of a numerical Jeans solver code, developed on purpose and able to build state-of-the-art advanced axisymmetric galaxy models, two of the main currently investigated issues in the field of research of early-type galaxies (ETGs) are addressed. The first topic concerns the hot and X-ray emitting gaseous coronae that surround ETGs. The main goal is to explain why flat and rotating galaxies generally exhibit haloes with lower gas temperatures and luminosities with respect to rounder and velocity dispersion supported systems. The second astrophysical problem addressed concerns instead the stellar initial mass function (IMF) of ETGs. Nowadays, this is a very controversial issue due to a growing number of works on ETGs, based on different and independent techniques, that show evidences of a systematic variation of the IMF normalization as a function of galaxy velocity dispersion or mass. These studies are changing the previous opinion that the IMF of ETGs was the same as that of spiral galaxies, and hence universal throughout the whole large family of galaxies.

Correlations and Quantum Dynamics of 1D Fermionic Models: New Results for the Kitaev Chain with Long-Range Pairing

In the first part of the thesis, we propose an exactly-solvable one-dimensional model for fermions with long-range p-wave pairing decaying with distance as a power law. We studied the phase diagram by analyzing the critical lines, the decay of correlation functions and the scaling of the von Neumann entropy with the system size. We found two gapped regimes, where correlation functions decay (i) exponentially at short range and algebraically at long range, (ii) purely algebraically. In the latter the entanglement entropy is found to diverge logarithmically. Most interestingly, along the critical lines, long-range pairing breaks also the conformal symmetry. This can be detected via the dynamics of entanglement following a quench. In the second part of the thesis we studied the evolution in time of the entanglement entropy for the Ising model in a transverse field varying linearly in time with different velocities. We found different regimes: an adiabatic one (small velocities) when the system evolves according the instantaneous ground state; a sudden quench (large velocities) when the system is essentially frozen to its initial state; and an intermediate one, where the entropy starts growing linearly but then displays oscillations (also as a function of the velocity). Finally, we discussed the Kibble-Zurek mechanism for the transition between the paramagnetic and the ordered phase.

Novel investigation methods in Computational Social Dynamics and Complex Systems

In this thesis the evolution of the techno-social systems analysis methods will be reported, through the explanation of the various research experience directly faced. The first case presented is a research based on data mining of a dataset of words association named Human Brain Cloud: validation will be faced and, also through a non-trivial modeling, a better understanding of language properties will be presented. Then, a real complex system experiment will be introduced: the WideNoise experiment in the context of the EveryAware european project. The project and the experiment course will be illustrated and data analysis will be displayed. Then the Experimental Tribe platform for social computation will be introduced . It has been conceived to help researchers in the implementation of web experiments, and aims also to catalyze the cumulative growth of experimental methodologies and the standardization of tools cited above. In the last part, three other research experience which already took place on the Experimental Tribe platform will be discussed in detail, from the design of the experiment to the analysis of the results and, eventually, to the modeling of the systems involved. The experiments are: CityRace, about the measurement of human traffic-facing strategies; laPENSOcosì, aiming to unveil the political opinion structure; AirProbe, implemented again in the EveryAware project framework, which consisted in monitoring air quality opinion shift of a community informed about local air pollution. At the end, the evolution of the technosocial systems investigation methods shall emerge together with the opportunities and the threats offered by this new scientific path.

Fellow travelers: an ethnographic study of the dynamics of inter-organizational collaboration

The research is a 13-months ethnographic field work on the early operations of a Multi-party alliance active in the global field of indoor positioning. The study aims to understand and investigate empirically the challenges that at the individual and group level influence the organizing principle guiding the alliance operations and evolution. Its contribution rests on the dynamics affecting ecosystems of innovation and collaborative spaces of value co-creation in inter-organizational projects.

Advanced representation of the ocean/sea ice dynamics at high latitudes

Sea ice is a fundamental element of global climate system, with numerous impacts on the polar environment. The ongoing drastic changes in the Earth’s sea ice cover highlight the necessity of monitoring the polar regions and systematically evaluating the quality of different numerical products. The main objective of this thesis is to improve our knowledge of the representation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice using comprehensive global ocean reanalyses and coupled climate models. The dissertation will explore (i) the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) and pack ice area in the ensemble mean of four global ocean reanalyses called GREP; (ii) historical representation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice state in HighResMIP models; (iii) the future evolution of Arctic sea ice in HighResMIP models. Global ocean reanalyses and GREP are found to adequately capture interannual and seasonal variability in both pack ice and MIZ areas at hemispheric and regional scales. The advantage of the ensemble-mean approach is proved as GREP smooths the strengths and weaknesses of single systems and provides the most consistent and reliable estimates. This work is intended to encourage the use of GREP in a wide range of applications. The analysis of sea ice representation in the coupled climate models shows no systematic impact of the increased horizontal resolution. We argue that a few minor improvements in sea ice representation with the enhanced horizontal resolution are presumably not worth the major effort of costly computations. The thesis highlights the critical importance to distinguish the MIZ from consolidated pack ice both for investigating changes in sea ice distribution and evaluating the product’s performance. Considering that the MIZ is predicted to dominate the Arctic sea ice cover, the model physics parameterizations and sea ice rheology might require modifications. The results of the work can be useful for modelling community.