11 resultados para Dynamic Model Averaging
em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna
Resumo:
The research is aimed at contributing to the identification of reliable fully predictive Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods for the numerical simulation of equipment typically adopted in the chemical and process industries. The apparatuses selected for the investigation, specifically membrane modules, stirred vessels and fluidized beds, were characterized by a different and often complex fluid dynamic behaviour and in some cases the momentum transfer phenomena were coupled with mass transfer or multiphase interactions. Firs of all, a novel modelling approach based on CFD for the prediction of the gas separation process in membrane modules for hydrogen purification is developed. The reliability of the gas velocity field calculated numerically is assessed by comparison of the predictions with experimental velocity data collected by Particle Image Velocimetry, while the applicability of the model to properly predict the separation process under a wide range of operating conditions is assessed through a strict comparison with permeation experimental data. Then, the effect of numerical issues on the RANS-based predictions of single phase stirred tanks is analysed. The homogenisation process of a scalar tracer is also investigated and simulation results are compared to original passive tracer homogenisation curves determined with Planar Laser Induced Fluorescence. The capability of a CFD approach based on the solution of RANS equations is also investigated for describing the fluid dynamic characteristics of the dispersion of organics in water. Finally, an Eulerian-Eulerian fluid-dynamic model is used to simulate mono-disperse suspensions of Geldart A Group particles fluidized by a Newtonian incompressible fluid as well as binary segregating fluidized beds of particles differing in size and density. The results obtained under a number of different operating conditions are compared with literature experimental data and the effect of numerical uncertainties on axial segregation is also discussed.
Resumo:
This doctoral dissertation is triggered by an emergent problem: how can firms reinvent themselves? Continuity- and change-oriented decisions fundamentally shape overtime the activities and potential revenues of organizations and other adaptive systems, but both types of actions draw upon limited resources and rely on different organizational routines and capabilities. Most organizations appear to have difficulties in making tradeoffs, so that it is easier to overinvest in one of them than to successfully achieve a mixture of both. Nevertheless, theory and empirical evidence suggest that too little of either may reduce performance, indicating a need to learn more about how organizations reconcile these tensions. In the first paper, I moved from the consideration that rapid changes in competitive environments increasingly require firms to be “ambidextrous” implementing organizational mechanisms and structures that allow continuity- and change-oriented activities to be engaged at the same time. More specifically, I show that continuity- and change-related decisions can’t be confined either inside or outside the firm, but span overtime across distinct decision domains located within and beyond the organizational boundaries. Reconciling static and dynamic perspectives of ambidexterity, I conceptualize a firm’s strategy as a bundle of decisions about product attributes and components of the production team, proposing a multidimensional and dynamic model of structural ambidexterity that explains why and how firms could manage conflicting pressures for continuity and change in the context of new products. In the second study I note how rigorous systematic evidence documenting the success of ambidextrous organizations is lacking, and there has been very little investigation of how firms deal with continuity and change in new products. How to manage the transition form a successful product to another? What to change and what to keep? Incumbents that deal with series of products over time need to update their offerings in order to have the most relevant attributes to prospect clients without disappoint the current customer base. They need to both match and anticipate consumers’ preferences, blending something old with something new to satisfy the current demand and enlarge the herd by appealing to newer audiences. This paper contributes to strategic renewal and ambidexterity-related research with the first empirically assessment of a positive consumer response to ambidexterity in new products. Also, this study provides a practical method to monitor overtime the degree to which a brand or a firm is continuity- or change- oriented and evaluate different strategy profiles across two decision domains that play a pivotal role in new products: product attributes and components of the production team.
Resumo:
The advances that have been characterizing spatial econometrics in recent years are mostly theoretical and have not found an extensive empirical application yet. In this work we aim at supplying a review of the main tools of spatial econometrics and to show an empirical application for one of the most recently introduced estimators. Despite the numerous alternatives that the econometric theory provides for the treatment of spatial (and spatiotemporal) data, empirical analyses are still limited by the lack of availability of the correspondent routines in statistical and econometric software. Spatiotemporal modeling represents one of the most recent developments in spatial econometric theory and the finite sample properties of the estimators that have been proposed are currently being tested in the literature. We provide a comparison between some estimators (a quasi-maximum likelihood, QML, estimator and some GMM-type estimators) for a fixed effects dynamic panel data model under certain conditions, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We focus on different settings, which are characterized either by fully stable or quasi-unit root series. We also investigate the extent of the bias that is caused by a non-spatial estimation of a model when the data are characterized by different degrees of spatial dependence. Finally, we provide an empirical application of a QML estimator for a time-space dynamic model which includes a temporal, a spatial and a spatiotemporal lag of the dependent variable. This is done by choosing a relevant and prolific field of analysis, in which spatial econometrics has only found limited space so far, in order to explore the value-added of considering the spatial dimension of the data. In particular, we study the determinants of cropland value in Midwestern U.S.A. in the years 1971-2009, by taking the present value model (PVM) as the theoretical framework of analysis.
Resumo:
Food commodity prices fluctuations have important impacts on poverty and food insecurity across the world. Conventional models have not provided a complete picture of recent price spikes in agricultural commodity markets, while there is an urgent need for appropriate policy responses. Perhaps new approaches are needed in order to better understand international spill-overs, the feedback between the real and the financial sectors and also the link between food and energy prices. In this paper, we present results from a new worldwide dynamic model that provides short and long-run impulse responses of wheat international prices to various real shocks.
Resumo:
This project concentrates on the Low Voltage Ride Through (LVRT) capability of Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind turbine. The main attention in the project is, therefore, drawn to the control of the DFIG wind turbine and of its power converter and to the ability to protect itself without disconnection during grid faults. It provides also an overview on the interaction between variable speed DFIG wind turbines and the power system subjected to disturbances, such as short circuit faults. The dynamic model of DFIG wind turbine includes models for both mechanical components as well as for all electrical components, controllers and for the protection device of DFIG necessary during grid faults. The viewpoint of this project is to carry out different simulations to provide insight and understanding of the grid fault impact on both DFIG wind turbines and on the power system itself. The dynamic behavior of DFIG wind turbines during grid faults is simulated and assessed by using a transmission power system generic model developed and delivered by Transmission System Operator in the power system simulation toolbox Digsilent, Matlab/Simulink and PLECS.
Resumo:
The dissertation contains five parts: An introduction, three major chapters, and a short conclusion. The First Chapter starts from a survey and discussion of the studies on corporate law and financial development literature. The commonly used methods in these cross-sectional analyses are biased as legal origins are no longer valid instruments. Hence, the model uncertainty becomes a salient problem. The Bayesian Model Averaging algorithm is applied to test the robustness of empirical results in Djankov et al. (2008). The analysis finds that their constructed legal index is not robustly correlated with most of the various stock market outcome variables. The second Chapter looks into the effects of minority shareholders protection in corporate governance regime on entrepreneurs' ex ante incentives to undertake IPO. Most of the current literature focuses on the beneficial part of minority shareholder protection on valuation, while overlooks its private costs on entrepreneur's control. As a result, the entrepreneur trade-offs the costs of monitoring with the benefits of cheap sources of finance when minority shareholder protection improves. The theoretical predictions are empirically tested using panel data and GMM-sys estimator. The third Chapter investigates the corporate law and corporate governance reform in China. The corporate law in China regards shareholder control as the means to the ends of pursuing the interests of stakeholders, which is inefficient. The Chapter combines the recent development of theories of the firm, i.e., the team production theory and the property rights theory, to solve such problem. The enlightened shareholder value, which emphasizes on the long term valuation of the firm, should be adopted as objectives of listed firms. In addition, a move from the mandatory division of power between shareholder meeting and board meeting to the default regime, is proposed.
Resumo:
In the last years the attentions on the energy efficiency on historical buildings grows, as different research project took place across Europe. The attention on combining, the need of the preservation of the buildings, their value and their characteristic, with the need of the reduction of energy consumption and the improvements of indoor comfort condition, stimulate the discussion of two points of view that are usually in contradiction, buildings engineer and Conservation Institution. The results are surprising because a common field is growing while remains the need of balancing the respective exigencies. From these experience results clear that many questions should be answered also from the building physicist regarding the correct assessment: on the energy consumption of this class of buildings, on the effectiveness of the measures that could be adopted, and much more. This thesis gives a contribution to answer to these questions developing a procedure to analyse the historic building. The procedure gives a guideline of the energy audit for the historical building considering the experimental activities to dial with the uncertainty of the estimation of the energy balance. It offers a procedure to simulate the energy balance of building with a validated dynamic model considering also a calibration procedure to increase the accuracy of the model. An approach of design of energy efficiency measures through an optimization that consider different aspect is also presented. All the process is applied to a real case study to give to the reader a practical understanding.
Resumo:
This thesis aims to present the ORC technology, its advantages and related problems. In particular, it provides an analysis of ORC waste heat recovery system in different and innovative scenarios, focusing on cases from the biggest to the lowest scale. Both industrial and residential ORC applications are considered. In both applications, the installation of a subcritical and recuperated ORC system is examined. Moreover, heat recovery is considered in absence of an intermediate heat transfer circuit. This solution allow to improve the recovery efficiency, but requiring safety precautions. Possible integrations of ORC systems with renewable sources are also presented and investigated to improve the non-programmable source exploitation. In particular, the offshore oil and gas sector has been selected as a promising industrial large-scale ORC application. From the design of ORC systems coupled with Gas Turbines (GTs) as topper systems, the dynamic behavior of the GT+ORC innovative combined cycles has been analyzed by developing a dynamic model of all the considered components. The dynamic behavior is caused by integration with a wind farm. The electric and thermal aspects have been examined to identify the advantages related to the waste heat recovery system installation. Moreover, an experimental test rig has been realized to test the performance of a micro-scale ORC prototype. The prototype recovers heat from a low temperature water stream, available for instance in industrial or residential waste heat. In the test bench, various sensors have been installed, an acquisitions system developed in Labview environment to completely analyze the ORC behavior. Data collected in real time and corresponding to the system dynamic behavior have been used to evaluate the system performance based on selected indexes. Moreover, various operational steady-state conditions are identified and operation maps are realized for a completely characterization of the system and to detect the optimal operating conditions.
Resumo:
The weight-transfer effect, consisting of the change in dynamic load distribution between the front and the rear tractor axles, is one of the most impairing phenomena for the performance, comfort, and safety of agricultural operations. Excessive weight transfer from the front to the rear tractor axle can occur during operation or maneuvering of implements connected to the tractor through the three-point hitch (TPH). In this respect, an optimal design of the TPH can ensure better dynamic load distribution and ultimately improve operational performance, comfort, and safety. In this study, a computational design tool (The Optimizer) for the determination of a TPH geometry that minimizes the weight-transfer effect is developed. The Optimizer is based on a constrained minimization algorithm. The objective function to be minimized is related to the tractor front-to-rear axle load transfer during a simulated reference maneuver performed with a reference implement on a reference soil. Simulations are based on a 3-degrees-of-freedom (DOF) dynamic model of the tractor-TPH-implement aggregate. The inertial, elastic, and viscous parameters of the dynamic model were successfully determined through a parameter identification algorithm. The geometry determined by the Optimizer complies with the ISO-730 Standard functional requirements and other design requirements. The interaction between the soil and the implement during the simulated reference maneuver was successfully validated against experimental data. Simulation results show that the adopted reference maneuver is effective in triggering the weight-transfer effect, with the front axle load exhibiting a peak-to-peak value of 27.1 kN during the maneuver. A benchmark test was conducted starting from four geometries of a commercially available TPH. As result, all the configurations were optimized by above 10%. The Optimizer, after 36 iterations, was able to find an optimized TPH geometry which allows to reduce the weight-transfer effect by 14.9%.
Resumo:
HER2 overexpression is observed in 20-30% of invasive breast carcinomas and it is correlated with poor prognosis. Although targeted therapies have revolutionized the treatment of HER2-positive breast cancer, a high number of patients presented primary or acquired resistance to monoclonal antibodies and tyrosine kinase inhibitors. Tumor heterogenicity, epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) and cancer stem cells are key factors in target therapy resistance and tumor progression. The aim of this project was to discover alternative therapeutic strategies to over-come tumor resistance by harnessing immune system and looking for new targetable molecules. The results reported introduce a virus-like particles-based vaccine against HER2 as promising therapeutic approach to treat HER2-positive tumors. The high and persistent anti-HER2 antibody titers elicited by the vaccine significantly inhibited tumor growth and metastases onset. Furthermore, the polyclonal response induced by the vaccine also inhibited human HER2-positive breast cancer cells resistant to trastuzumab in vitro, suggesting its efficacy also on trastuzumab resistant tumors. To identify new therapeutic targets to treat progressed breast cancer, we took advantage from a dynamic model of HER2 expression obtained in our laboratory, in which HER2 loss and cancer progression were associated with the acquisition of EMT and stemness features. Targeting EMT-involved molecules, such as PDGFR-β, or the induction of epithelial markers, like E-cadherin, proved to be successful strategy to impair HER2-negative tumor growth. Density alterations, which might be induced by anti-HER2 target therapies, in cell culture condition of a cell line with a labile HER2 expression, caused HER2 loss probably as consequence of more aggressive subpopulations which prevail over the others. These subpopulations showed an increased EMT and stemness profile, confirming that targeting EMT-involved molecules or antigen expressed by cancer stem cells together with anti-HER2 target therapies is a valid strategy to inhibit HER2-positive cells and simultaneously prevent selection of more aggressive clone.
Resumo:
Among the experimental methods commonly used to define the behaviour of a full scale system, dynamic tests are the most complete and efficient procedures. A dynamic test is an experimental process, which would define a set of characteristic parameters of the dynamic behaviour of the system, such as natural frequencies of the structure, mode shapes and the corresponding modal damping values associated. An assessment of these modal characteristics can be used both to verify the theoretical assumptions of the project, to monitor the performance of the structural system during its operational use. The thesis is structured in the following chapters: The first introductive chapter recalls some basic notions of dynamics of structure, focusing the discussion on the problem of systems with multiply degrees of freedom (MDOF), which can represent a generic real system under study, when it is excited with harmonic force or in free vibration. The second chapter is entirely centred on to the problem of dynamic identification process of a structure, if it is subjected to an experimental test in forced vibrations. It first describes the construction of FRF through classical FFT of the recorded signal. A different method, also in the frequency domain, is subsequently introduced; it allows accurately to compute the FRF using the geometric characteristics of the ellipse that represents the direct input-output comparison. The two methods are compared and then the attention is focused on some advantages of the proposed methodology. The third chapter focuses on the study of real structures when they are subjected to experimental test, where the force is not known, like in an ambient or impact test. In this analysis we decided to use the CWT, which allows a simultaneous investigation in the time and frequency domain of a generic signal x(t). The CWT is first introduced to process free oscillations, with excellent results both in terms of frequencies, dampings and vibration modes. The application in the case of ambient vibrations defines accurate modal parameters of the system, although on the damping some important observations should be made. The fourth chapter is still on the problem of post processing data acquired after a vibration test, but this time through the application of discrete wavelet transform (DWT). In the first part the results obtained by the DWT are compared with those obtained by the application of CWT. Particular attention is given to the use of DWT as a tool for filtering the recorded signal, in fact in case of ambient vibrations the signals are often affected by the presence of a significant level of noise. The fifth chapter focuses on another important aspect of the identification process: the model updating. In this chapter, starting from the modal parameters obtained from some environmental vibration tests, performed by the University of Porto in 2008 and the University of Sheffild on the Humber Bridge in England, a FE model of the bridge is defined, in order to define what type of model is able to capture more accurately the real dynamic behaviour of the bridge. The sixth chapter outlines the necessary conclusions of the presented research. They concern the application of a method in the frequency domain in order to evaluate the modal parameters of a structure and its advantages, the advantages in applying a procedure based on the use of wavelet transforms in the process of identification in tests with unknown input and finally the problem of 3D modeling of systems with many degrees of freedom and with different types of uncertainty.