6 resultados para Disease outbreaks. epidemiologic methods. Spatial Analysis. Epidemics.

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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In this thesis two major topics inherent with medical ultrasound images are addressed: deconvolution and segmentation. In the first case a deconvolution algorithm is described allowing statistically consistent maximum a posteriori estimates of the tissue reflectivity to be restored. These estimates are proven to provide a reliable source of information for achieving an accurate characterization of biological tissues through the ultrasound echo. The second topic involves the definition of a semi automatic algorithm for myocardium segmentation in 2D echocardiographic images. The results show that the proposed method can reduce inter- and intra observer variability in myocardial contours delineation and is feasible and accurate even on clinical data.

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The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

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A first phase of the research activity has been related to the study of the state of art of the infrastructures for cycling, bicycle use and methods for evaluation. In this part, the candidate has studied the "bicycle system" in countries with high bicycle use and in particular in the Netherlands. Has been carried out an evaluation of the questionnaires of the survey conducted within the European project BICY on mobility in general in 13 cities of the participating countries. The questionnaire was designed, tested and implemented, and was later validated by a test in Bologna. The results were corrected with information on demographic situation and compared with official data. The cycling infrastructure analysis was conducted on the basis of information from the OpenStreetMap database. The activity consisted in programming algorithms in Python that allow to extract data from the database infrastructure for a region, to sort and filter cycling infrastructure calculating some attributes, such as the length of the arcs paths. The results obtained were compared with official data where available. The structure of the thesis is as follows: 1. Introduction: description of the state of cycling in several advanced countries, description of methods of analysis and their importance to implement appropriate policies for cycling. Supply and demand of bicycle infrastructures. 2. Survey on mobility: it gives details of the investigation developed and the method of evaluation. The results obtained are presented and compared with official data. 3. Analysis cycling infrastructure based on information from the database of OpenStreetMap: describes the methods and algorithms developed during the PhD. The results obtained by the algorithms are compared with official data. 4. Discussion: The above results are discussed and compared. In particular the cycle demand is compared with the length of cycle networks within a city. 5. Conclusions

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In the context of “testing laboratory” one of the most important aspect to deal with is the measurement result. Whenever decisions are based on measurement results, it is important to have some indication of the quality of the results. In every area concerning with noise measurement many standards are available but without an expression of uncertainty, it is impossible to judge whether two results are in compliance or not. ISO/IEC 17025 is an international standard related with the competence of calibration and testing laboratories. It contains the requirements that testing and calibration laboratories have to meet if they wish to demonstrate that they operate to a quality system, are technically competent and are able to generate technically valid results. ISO/IEC 17025 deals specifically with the requirements for the competence of laboratories performing testing and calibration and for the reporting of the results, which may or may not contain opinions and interpretations of the results. The standard requires appropriate methods of analysis to be used for estimating uncertainty of measurement. In this point of view, for a testing laboratory performing sound power measurement according to specific ISO standards and European Directives, the measurement of uncertainties is the most important factor to deal with. Sound power level measurement, according to ISO 3744:1994 , performed with a limited number of microphones distributed over a surface enveloping a source is affected by a certain systematic error and a related standard deviation. Making a comparison of measurement carried out with different microphone arrays is difficult because results are affected by systematic errors and standard deviation that are peculiarities of the number of microphones disposed on the surface, their spatial position and the complexity of the sound field. A statistical approach could give an overview of the difference between sound power level evaluated with different microphone arrays and an evaluation of errors that afflict this kind of measurement. Despite the classical approach that tend to follow the ISO GUM this thesis present a different point of view of the problem related to the comparison of result obtained from different microphone arrays.

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The fall of the Berlin Wall opened the way for a reform path – the transition process – which accompanied ten former Socialist countries in Central and South Eastern Europe to knock at the EU doors. By the way, at the time of the EU membership several economic and structural weaknesses remained. A tendency towards convergence between the new Member States (NMS) and the EU average income level emerged, together with a spread of inequality at the sub-regional level, mainly driven by the backwardness of the agricultural and rural areas. Several progresses were made in evaluating the policies for rural areas, but a shared definition of rurality is still missing. Numerous indicators were calculated for assessing the effectiveness of the Common Agricultural Policy and Rural Development Policy. Previous analysis on the Central and Eastern European countries found that the characteristics of the most backward areas were insufficiently addressed by the policies enacted; the low data availability and accountability at a sub-regional level, and the deficiencies in institutional planning and implementation represented an obstacle for targeting policies and payments. The next pages aim at providing a basis for understanding the connections between the peculiarities of the transition process, the current development performance of NMS and the EU role, with particular attention to the agricultural and rural areas. Applying a mixed methodological approach (multivariate statistics, non-parametric methods, spatial econometrics), this study contributes to the identification of rural areas and to the analysis of the changes occurred during the EU membership in Hungary, assessing the effect of CAP introduction and its contribution to the convergence of the Hungarian agricultural and rural. The author believes that more targeted – and therefore efficient – policies for agricultural and rural areas require a deeper knowledge of their structural and dynamic characteristics.

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This PhD thesis is focused on the study of the molecular variability of some specific proteins, part of the outer membrane of the pathogen Neisseria meningitidis, and described as protective antigens and important virulence factors. These antigens have been employed as components of the vaccine developed by Novartis Vaccines against N. meningitidis of serogroup B, and their variability in the meningococcal population is a key aspect when the effect of the vaccine is evaluated. The PhD project has led to complete three major studies described in three different manuscritps, of which two have been published and the third is in preparation. The thesis is structured in three main chapters, each of them dedicated to the three studies. The first, described in Chapter 1, is specifically dedicated to the analysis of the molecular conservation of meningococcal antigens in the genomes of all species classified in the genus Neisseria (Conservation of Meningococcal Antigens in the Genus Neisseria. A. Muzzi et al.. 2013. mBio 4 (3)). The second study, described in Chapter 2, focuses on the analysis of the presence and conservation of the antigens in a panel of bacterial isolates obtained from cases of the disease and from healthy individuals, and collected in the same year and in the same geographical area (Conservation of fHbp, NadA, and NHBA in carrier and pathogenic isolates of Neisseria meningitidis collected in the Czech Republic in 1993. A. Muzzi et al.. Manuscript in preparation). Finally, Chapter 3 describes the molecular features of the antigens in a panel of bacterial isolates collected over a period of 50 years, and representatives of the epidemiological history of meningococcal disease in the Netherlands (An Analysis of the Sequence Variability of Meningococcal fHbp, NadA and NHBA over a 50-Year Period in the Netherlands. S. Bambini et al.. 2013. PloS one e65043).