6 resultados para Dirichlet Regression compositional model.
em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna
Resumo:
This thesis intends to investigate two aspects of Constraint Handling Rules (CHR). It proposes a compositional semantics and a technique for program transformation. CHR is a concurrent committed-choice constraint logic programming language consisting of guarded rules, which transform multi-sets of atomic formulas (constraints) into simpler ones until exhaustion [Frü06] and it belongs to the declarative languages family. It was initially designed for writing constraint solvers but it has recently also proven to be a general purpose language, being as it is Turing equivalent [SSD05a]. Compositionality is the first CHR aspect to be considered. A trace based compositional semantics for CHR was previously defined in [DGM05]. The reference operational semantics for such a compositional model was the original operational semantics for CHR which, due to the propagation rule, admits trivial non-termination. In this thesis we extend the work of [DGM05] by introducing a more refined trace based compositional semantics which also includes the history. The use of history is a well-known technique in CHR which permits us to trace the application of propagation rules and consequently it permits trivial non-termination avoidance [Abd97, DSGdlBH04]. Naturally, the reference operational semantics, of our new compositional one, uses history to avoid trivial non-termination too. Program transformation is the second CHR aspect to be considered, with particular regard to the unfolding technique. Said technique is an appealing approach which allows us to optimize a given program and in more detail to improve run-time efficiency or spaceconsumption. Essentially it consists of a sequence of syntactic program manipulations which preserve a kind of semantic equivalence called qualified answer [Frü98], between the original program and the transformed ones. The unfolding technique is one of the basic operations which is used by most program transformation systems. It consists in the replacement of a procedure-call by its definition. In CHR every conjunction of constraints can be considered as a procedure-call, every CHR rule can be considered as a procedure and the body of said rule represents the definition of the call. While there is a large body of literature on transformation and unfolding of sequential programs, very few papers have addressed this issue for concurrent languages. We define an unfolding rule, show its correctness and discuss some conditions in which it can be used to delete an unfolded rule while preserving the meaning of the original program. Finally, confluence and termination maintenance between the original and transformed programs are shown. This thesis is organized in the following manner. Chapter 1 gives some general notion about CHR. Section 1.1 outlines the history of programming languages with particular attention to CHR and related languages. Then, Section 1.2 introduces CHR using examples. Section 1.3 gives some preliminaries which will be used during the thesis. Subsequentely, Section 1.4 introduces the syntax and the operational and declarative semantics for the first CHR language proposed. Finally, the methodologies to solve the problem of trivial non-termination related to propagation rules are discussed in Section 1.5. Chapter 2 introduces a compositional semantics for CHR where the propagation rules are considered. In particular, Section 2.1 contains the definition of the semantics. Hence, Section 2.2 presents the compositionality results. Afterwards Section 2.3 expounds upon the correctness results. Chapter 3 presents a particular program transformation known as unfolding. This transformation needs a particular syntax called annotated which is introduced in Section 3.1 and its related modified operational semantics !0t is presented in Section 3.2. Subsequently, Section 3.3 defines the unfolding rule and prove its correctness. Then, in Section 3.4 the problems related to the replacement of a rule by its unfolded version are discussed and this in turn gives a correctness condition which holds for a specific class of rules. Section 3.5 proves that confluence and termination are preserved by the program modifications introduced. Finally, Chapter 4 concludes by discussing related works and directions for future work.
Resumo:
The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.
Resumo:
In the present work we perform an econometric analysis of the Tribal art market. To this aim, we use a unique and original database that includes information on Tribal art market auctions worldwide from 1998 to 2011. In Literature, art prices are modelled through the hedonic regression model, a classic fixed-effect model. The main drawback of the hedonic approach is the large number of parameters, since, in general, art data include many categorical variables. In this work, we propose a multilevel model for the analysis of Tribal art prices that takes into account the influence of time on artwork prices. In fact, it is natural to assume that time exerts an influence over the price dynamics in various ways. Nevertheless, since the set of objects change at every auction date, we do not have repeated measurements of the same items over time. Hence, the dataset does not constitute a proper panel; rather, it has a two-level structure in that items, level-1 units, are grouped in time points, level-2 units. The main theoretical contribution is the extension of classical multilevel models to cope with the case described above. In particular, we introduce a model with time dependent random effects at the second level. We propose a novel specification of the model, derive the maximum likelihood estimators and implement them through the E-M algorithm. We test the finite sample properties of the estimators and the validity of the own-written R-code by means of a simulation study. Finally, we show that the new model improves considerably the fit of the Tribal art data with respect to both the hedonic regression model and the classic multilevel model.
Resumo:
The instability of river bank can result in considerable human and land losses. The Po river is the most important in Italy, characterized by main banks of significant and constantly increasing height. This study presents multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) to construct prediction models for the stability analysis of river banks along the Po River, under various river and groundwater boundary conditions. For this aim, a number of networks of threshold logic unit are tested using different combinations of the input parameters. Factor of safety (FS), as an index of slope stability, is formulated in terms of several influencing geometrical and geotechnical parameters. In order to obtain a comprehensive geotechnical database, several cone penetration tests from the study site have been interpreted. The proposed models are developed upon stability analyses using finite element code over different representative sections of river embankments. For the validity verification, the ANN models are employed to predict the FS values of a part of the database beyond the calibration data domain. The results indicate that the proposed ANN models are effective tools for evaluating the slope stability. The ANN models notably outperform the derived multiple linear regression models.
Resumo:
Fabry disease (FD), X-linked metabolic disorder caused by a deficiency in α-galactosidase A activity, leads to the accumulation of glycosphingolipids, mainly Gb3 and lyso-Gb3, in several organs. Gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms are among the earliest and most common, strongly impacting patients’ quality of life. However, the origin of these symptoms and the exact mechanisms of pathogenesis are still poorly understood, thus the pressing need to improve their knowledge. Here we aimed to evaluate whether a FD murine model (α-galactosidase A Knock-Out) captures the functional GI issues experienced by patients. In particular, the potential mechanisms involved in the development and maintenance of GI symptoms were explored by looking at the microbiota-gut-brain axis involvement. Moreover, we sought to examine the effects of lyso-Gb3 on colonic contractility and the intestinal epithelium and the enteric nervous system, which together play important roles in regulating intestinal ion transport and fluid and electrolyte homeostasis. Fabry mice revealed visceral hypersensitivity and a diarrhea-like phenotype accompanied by anxious-like behavior and reduced locomotor activity. They reported also an imbalance of SCFAs and an early compositional and functional dysbiosis of the gut microbiota, which partly persisted with advancing age. Moreover, overexpression of TRPV1 was found in affected mice, and partial alteration of TRPV4 and TRPA1 as well, identifying them as possible therapeutic targets. The Ussing chamber results after treatment with lyso-Gb3 showed an increase in Isc (likely mediated by HCO3- ions movement) which affects neuron-mediated secretion, especially capsaicin- and partly veratridine-mediated. This first characterization of gut-brain axis dysfunction in FD mouse provides functional validation of the model, suggesting new targets and possible therapeutic approaches. Furthermore, lyso-Gb3 is confirmed to be not only a marker for the diagnosis and follow-up of FD but also a possible player in the alteration of the FD colonic ion transport process.
Resumo:
In this thesis, new classes of models for multivariate linear regression defined by finite mixtures of seemingly unrelated contaminated normal regression models and seemingly unrelated contaminated normal cluster-weighted models are illustrated. The main difference between such families is that the covariates are treated as fixed in the former class of models and as random in the latter. Thus, in cluster-weighted models the assignment of the data points to the unknown groups of observations depends also by the covariates. These classes provide an extension to mixture-based regression analysis for modelling multivariate and correlated responses in the presence of mild outliers that allows to specify a different vector of regressors for the prediction of each response. Expectation-conditional maximisation algorithms for the calculation of the maximum likelihood estimate of the model parameters have been derived. As the number of free parameters incresases quadratically with the number of responses and the covariates, analyses based on the proposed models can become unfeasible in practical applications. These problems have been overcome by introducing constraints on the elements of the covariance matrices according to an approach based on the eigen-decomposition of the covariance matrices. The performances of the new models have been studied by simulations and using real datasets in comparison with other models. In order to gain additional flexibility, mixtures of seemingly unrelated contaminated normal regressions models have also been specified so as to allow mixing proportions to be expressed as functions of concomitant covariates. An illustration of the new models with concomitant variables and a study on housing tension in the municipalities of the Emilia-Romagna region based on different types of multivariate linear regression models have been performed.