12 resultados para Differencein-in-Difference estimation (DID)
em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna
Resumo:
The research activity characterizing the present thesis was mainly centered on the design, development and validation of methodologies for the estimation of stationary and time-varying connectivity between different regions of the human brain during specific complex cognitive tasks. Such activity involved two main aspects: i) the development of a stable, consistent and reproducible procedure for functional connectivity estimation with a high impact on neuroscience field and ii) its application to real data from healthy volunteers eliciting specific cognitive processes (attention and memory). In particular the methodological issues addressed in the present thesis consisted in finding out an approach to be applied in neuroscience field able to: i) include all the cerebral sources in connectivity estimation process; ii) to accurately describe the temporal evolution of connectivity networks; iii) to assess the significance of connectivity patterns; iv) to consistently describe relevant properties of brain networks. The advancement provided in this thesis allowed finding out quantifiable descriptors of cognitive processes during a high resolution EEG experiment involving subjects performing complex cognitive tasks.
Resumo:
In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.
Resumo:
In martial arts there are several ways to perform the turning kick . Following the martial arts or different learning models many types of kicks take shape. Mawashi geri is the karate turning kick. At the moment there are two models of mawashi geri, one comes from the traditional karate (OLD), and the other newer (NEW), who agrees to the change of the rules of W.K.F. (World Karate Federation) happened in 2000 (Macan J. et all 2006) . In this study we are focus on the differences about two models the mawashi geri jodan of karate. The purpose of this study is to analyse cinematic and kinetic parameters of mawashi geri jodan. Timing of the striking and supporting leg actions were also evaluated A Vicon system 460 IR with 6 cameras at sample frequency of 200 Hz was used. 37 reflective markers have been set on the skin of the subjects following the “PlugInGait-total body model”. The participants performed five repetitions of mawashi geri jodan at maximum rapidity with their dominant leg against a ball suspended in front of them placed at ear height. Fourteen skilled subjects (mean level black belt 1,7 dan; age 20,9±4,8 yrs; height 171,4±7,3 cm; weight 60,9±10,2 Kg) practicing karate have been split in two group through the hierarchical cluster analysis following their technical characteristics. By means of the Mann Whitney-U test (Spss-package) the differences between the two groups were verified in preparatory and execution phase. Kicking knee at start, kicking hip and knee at take-off were different between the two groups (p < 0,05). Striking hip flexion during the spin of the supporting foot was different between the two groups (p < 0,05). Peak angular velocity of hip flexion were different between the two groups (p < 0,05). Groups showed differences also in timing of the supporting spin movement. While Old group spin the supporting foot at 30% of the trial, instead New start spinning at 44% of the trial. Old group showed a greater supporting foot spin than New (Old 110° Vs New 82°). Abduction values didn’t show any differences between the two groups. At the hit has been evaluated a 120° of double hips abduction, for the entire sample. Striking knee extension happened for everybody after the kicking hip flexion and confirm the proximal-distal action of the striking leg (Sorensen H. 1996). In contrast with Pearson J.N. 1997 and Landeo R 2007, peak velocity of the striking foot is not useful to describe kick performance because affected by the stature. Two groups are different either in preparatory phase or in execution phase. The body is set in difference manner already before the take-off of the kicking foot. The groups differ for the timing of the supporting foot action Trainer should pay attention to starting posture and on abduction capacities of the athletes.
La Pace Calda. La nascita del movimento antinucleare negli Stati Uniti e in Gran Bretagna, 1957-1963
Resumo:
The aim of this proposal is to offer an alternative perspective on the study of Cold War, since insufficient attention is usually paid to those organizations that mobilized against the development and proliferation of nuclear weapons. The antinuclear movement began to mobilize between the 1950s and the 1960s, when it finally gained the attention of public opinion, and helped to build a sort of global conscience about nuclear bombs. This was due to the activism of a significant part of the international scientific community, which offered powerful intellectual and political legitimization to the struggle, and to the combined actions of the scientific and organized protests. This antinuclear conscience is something we usually tend to consider as a fait accompli in contemporary world, but the question is to show its roots, and the way it influenced statesmen and political choices during the period of nuclear confrontation of the early Cold War. To understand what this conscience could be and how it should be defined, we have to look at the very meaning of the nuclear weapons that has deeply modified the sense of war. Nuclear weapons seemed to be able to destroy human beings everywhere with no realistic forms of control of the damages they could set off, and they represented the last resource in the wide range of means of mass destruction. Even if we tend to consider this idea fully rational and incontrovertible, it was not immediately born with the birth of nuclear weapons themselves. Or, better, not everyone in the world did immediately share it. Due to the particular climate of Cold War confrontation, deeply influenced by the persistence of realistic paradigms in international relations, British and U.S. governments looked at nuclear weapons simply as «a bullet». From the Trinity Test to the signature of the Limited Test Ban Treaty in 1963, many things happened that helped to shift this view upon nuclear weapons. First of all, more than ten years of scientific protests provided a more concerned knowledge about consequences of nuclear tests and about the use of nuclear weapons. Many scientists devoted their social activities to inform public opinion and policy-makers about the real significance of the power of the atom and the related danger for human beings. Secondly, some public figures, as physicists, philosophers, biologists, chemists, and so on, appealed directly to the human community to «leave the folly and face reality», publicly sponsoring the antinuclear conscience. Then, several organizations leaded by political, religious or radical individuals gave to this protests a formal structure. The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament in Great Britain, as well as the National Committee for a Sane Nuclear Policy in the U.S., represented the voice of the masses against the attempts of governments to present nuclear arsenals as a fundamental part of the international equilibrium. Therefore, the antinuclear conscience could be defined as an opposite feeling to the development and the use of nuclear weapons, able to create a political issue oriented to the influence of military and foreign policies. Only taking into consideration the strength of this pressure, it seems possible to understand not only the beginning of nuclear negotiations, but also the reasons that permitted Cold War to remain cold.
Resumo:
This dissertation investigates corporate governance and dividend policy in banking. This topic has recently attracted the attention of numerous scholars all over the world and currently remains one of the most discussed topics in Banking. The core of the dissertation is constituted by three papers. The first paper generalizes the main achievements in the field of relevant study using the approach of meta-analysis. The second paper provides an empirical analysis of the effect of banking corporate governance on dividend payout. Finally, the third paper investigates empirically the effect of government bailout during 2007-2010 on corporate governance and dividend policy of banks. The dissertation uses a new hand-collected data set with information on corporate governance, ownership structure and compensation structure for a sample of listed banks from 15 European countries for the period 2005-2010. The empirical papers employ such econometric approaches as Within-Group model, difference-in-difference technique, and propensity score matching method based on the Nearest Neighbor Matching estimator. The main empirical results may be summarized as follows. First, we provide evidence that CEO power and connection to government are associated with lower dividend payout ratios. This result supports the view that banking regulators are prevalently concerned about the safety of the bank, and powerful bank CEOs can afford to distribute low payout ratios, at the expense of minority shareholders. Next, we find that government bailout during 2007-2010 changes the banks’ ownership structure and helps to keep lending by bailed bank at the pre-crisis level. Finally, we provide robust evidence for increased control over the banks that receive government money. These findings show the important role of government when overcoming the consequences of the banking crisis, and high quality of governance of public bailouts in European countries.
Resumo:
This dissertation comprises three essays on the Turkish labor market. The first essay characterizes the distinctive characteristics of the Turkish labor market with the aim of understanding the factors lying behind its long-standing poor performance relative to its European counterparts. The analysis is based on a cross-country comparison among selected European Union countries. Among all the indicators of labor market flexibility, non-wage cost rigidities are regarded as one of the most important factors in slowing down employment creation in Turkey. The second essay focuses on an employment subsidy policy which introduces a reduction in non-wage costs through social security premium incentives granted to women and young men. Exploiting a difference-in-difference-in differences strategy, I evaluate the effectiveness of this policy in creating employment for the target group. The results, net of the recent crisis effect, suggest that the policy accounts for a 1.4% to 1.6% increase in the probability of being hired for women aged 30 to 34 above men of the same age group in the periods shortly after the announcement of the policy. In the third essay of the dissertation, I analyze the labor supply response of married women to their husbands' job losses (AWE). I empirically test the hypothesis of added worker effect for the global economic crisis of 2008 by relying on the Turkey context. Identification is achieved by exploiting the exogenous variation in the output of male-dominated sectors hard-hit by the crisis and the gender-segmentation that characterizes the Turkish labor market. Findings based on the instrumental variable approach suggest that the added worker effect explains up to 64% of the observed increase in female labor force participation in Turkey. The size of the effect depends on how long it takes for wives to adjust their labor supply to their husbands' job losses.
Resumo:
Derivation of stem cell lines from domesticated animals has been of great interest as it benefits translational medicine, clinical applications to improve human and animal health and biotechnology. The main types of stem cells studied are Embryonic Stem Cells (ESCs), induced Pluripotent Stem Cells (iPSCs) and Mesenchymal Stem/Stromal Cells (MSCs). This thesis had two main aims: (I) The isolation of bovine MSCs from amniotic fluid (AF) at different trimesters of pregnancy and their characterization to study pluripotency markers expression. Stemness markers were studied also in MSCs isolated from equine AF, Wharton’s jelly (WJ) and umbilical cord blood (UCB) as continuation of the characterization of these cells previously performed by our research group; (II) The establishment and characterization of iPSCs lines in two attractive large animal models for biomedical and biotechnology research such as the bovine and the swine, and the differentiation into the myogenic lineage of porcine iPSCs. It was observed that foetal tissues in domestic animals such as the bovine and the horse represent a source of MSCs able to differentiate into the mesodermal lineage but they do not proliferate indefinitely and they lack the expression of many pluripotency markers, making them an interesting source of cells for regenerative medicine, but not the best candidate to elucidate pluripotency networks. The protocol used to induce pluripotency in bovine fibroblasts did not work, as well as the chemical induction of pluripotency in porcine fibroblasts, while the reprogramming protocol used for porcine iPSCs was successful and the line generated was amenable to being differentiated into the myogenic lineage, demonstrating that they could be addressed into a desired lineage by genetic modification and appropriated culture conditions. Only a few cell types have been differentiated from domestic animal iPSCs to date, so the development of a reliable directed-differentiation protocol represents a very important result.
Resumo:
Aberrant expression of ETS transcription factors, including FLI1 and ERG, due to chromosomal translocations has been described as a driver event in initiation and progression of different tumors. In this study, the impact of prostate cancer (PCa) fusion gene TMPRSS2-ERG was evaluated on components of the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system and the CD99 molecule, two well documented targets of EWS-FLI1, the hallmark of Ewing sarcoma (ES). The aim of this study was to identify common or distinctive ETS-related mechanisms which could be exploited at biological and clinical level. The results demonstrate that IGF-1R represents a common target of ETS rearrangements as ERG and FLI1 bind IGF-1R gene promoter and their modulation causes alteration in IGF-1R protein levels. At clinical level, this mechanism provides basis for a more rationale use of anti-IGF-1R inhibitors as PCa cells expressing the fusion gene better respond to anti-IGF-1R agents. EWS-FLI1/IGF-1R axis provides rationale for combination of anti-IGF-1R agents with trabectedin, an alkylator agent causing enhanced EWS-FLI1 occupancy on the IGF-1R promoter. TMPRSS2-ERG also influences prognosis relevance of IGF system as high IGF-1R correlates with a better biochemical progression free survival (BPFS) in PCa patients negative for the fusion gene while marginal or no association was found in the total cases or TMPRSS2-ERG-positive cases, respectively. This study indicates CD99 is differentially regulated between ETS-related tumors as CD99 is not a target of ERG. In PCa, CD99 did not show differential expression between TMPRSS2-ERG-positive and –negative cells. A direct correlation was anyway found between ERG and CD99 proteins both in vitro and in patients putatively suggesting that ERG target genes comprehend regulators of CD99. Despite a little trend suggesting a correlation between CD99 expression and a better BPFS, no clinical relevance for CD99 was found in the field of prognostic biomarkers.
Resumo:
The arousal scoring in Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (OSAS) is important to clarify the impact of the disease on sleep but the currently applied American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) definition may underestimate the subtle alterations of sleep. The aims of the present study were to evaluate the impact of respiratory events on cortical and autonomic arousal response and to quantify the additional value of cyclic alternating pattern (CAP) and pulse wave amplitude (PWA) for a more accurate detection of respiratory events and sleep alterations in OSAS patients. A retrospective revision of 19 polysomnographic recordings of OSAS patients was carried out. Analysis was focused on quantification of apneas (AP), hypopneas (H) and flow limitation (FL) events, and on investigation of cerebral and autonomic activity. Only 41.1% of FL events analyzed in non rapid eye movement met the AASM rules for the definition of respiratory event-related arousal (RERA), while 75.5% of FL events ended with a CAP A phase. The dual response (EEG-PWA) was the most frequent response for all subtypes of respiratory event with a progressive reduction from AP to H and FL. 87.7% of respiratory events with EEG activation showed also a PWA drop and 53,4% of the respiratory events without EEG activation presented a PWA drop. The relationship between the respiratory events and the arousal response is more complex than that suggested by the international classification. In the estimation of the response to respiratory events, the CAP scoring and PWA analysis can offer more extensive information compared to the AASM rules. Our data confirm also that the application of PWA scoring improves the detection of respiratory events and could reduce the underestimation of OSAS severity compared to AASM arousal.
Resumo:
There is a need to identify factors that are able to influence health in old age and to develop interventions that could slow down the process of aging and its associated pathologies. Lifestyle modifications, and especially nutrition, appear to be promising strategies to promote healthy aging. Their impact on aging biomarkers has been poorly investigated. In the first part of this work, we evaluated the impact of a one-year Mediterranean-like diet, delivered within the framework of the NU-AGE project in 120 elderly subjects, on epigenetic age acceleration measures assessed with Horvath’s clock. We observed a rejuvenation of participants after nutritional intervention. The effect was more marked in the group of Polish females and in subjects who were epigenetically older at baseline. In the second part of this work, we developed a new model of epigenetic biomarker, based on a gene-targeted approach with the EpiTYPER® system. We selected six regions of interest (associated with ELOVL2, NHLRC1, SIRT7/MAFG, AIM2, EDARADD and TFAP2E genes) and constructed our model through a ridge regression analysis. In controls, estimation of chronological age was accurate, with a correlation coefficient between predicted and chronological age of 0.92 and a mean absolute deviation of 4.70 years. Our model was able to capture phenomena of accelerated or decelerated aging, in Down syndrome subjects and centenarians and offspring respectively. Applying our model to samples of the NU-AGE project, we observed similar results to the ones obtained with the canonical epigenetic clock, with a rejuvenation of the individuals after one-year of nutritional intervention. Together, our findings indicate that nutrition can promote epigenetic rejuvenation and that epigenetic age acceleration measures could be suitable biomarkers to evaluate their impact. We demonstrated that the effect of the dietary intervention is country-, sex- and individual-specific, thus suggesting the need for a personalized approach to nutritional interventions.
Resumo:
Contaminants of emerging concern are increasingly detected in the water cycle, with endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) receiving attention due to their potential to cause adverse health effects even at low concentrations. Although the EU has recently introduced some EDCs into drinking water legislation, most drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) are not designed to remove EDCs, making their detection and removal in DWTPs an important challenge. The aim of this doctoral project was to investigate hormones and phenolic compounds as suspected EDCs in drinking waters across the Romagna area (Italy). The main objectives were to assess the occurrence of considered contaminants in source and drinking water from three DWTPs, characterize the effectiveness of removal by different water treatment processes, and evaluate the potential biological impact on drinking water and human health. Specifically, a complementary approach of target chemical analysis and effect-based methods was adopted to explore drinking water quality, treatment efficacy, and biological potential. This study found that nonylphenol (NP) was prevalent in all samples, followed by BPA. Sporadic contamination of hormones was found only in source waters. Although the measured EDC concentrations in drinking water did not exceed threshold guideline values, the potential role of DWTPs as an additional source of EDC contamination should be considered. Significant increases in BPA and NP levels were observed during water treatment steps, which were also reflected in estrogenic and mutagenic responses in water samples after the ultrafiltration. This highlights the need to monitor water quality during various treatment processes to improve the efficiency of DWTPs. Biological assessments on finished water did not reveal any bioactivity, except for few treated water samples that exhibited estrogenic responses. Overall, the data emphasize the high quality of produced drinking water and the value of applying integrated chemical analysis and in vitro bioassays for water quality assessment.
Resumo:
This thesis includes three papers studying diverse questions in development, economic history and political economy. The first two chapters, that fall under development and economic history, use novel forms of text data and analysis to answer the questions at hand. The first chapter studies the possible impact of a historically matrilineal and matrilocal caste group on present day outcomes of gender equality. It introduces a novel surname strategy using electoral data to deduce caste from the surnames of electors and overcomes the unavailability of caste data. It shows proof of persistence of caste in space. And finally, following a matching exercise it concludes that the effect of the matrilineal and matrilocal caste on present day gender outcomes might not be as strong as previously believed. The second paper studies how discriminatory fake news arises and spatially diffuses. It focuses on India at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: on March 30, a Muslim convention (the Tablighi Jamaat) in New Delhi became publicly recognized as a COVID hotspot, and the next day, fake news on Muslims intentionally spreading the virus spiked. Using Twitter data, it finds, in cross-sectional and difference-in-difference settings, that discriminatory fake news became much more widespread after March 30 (1) in New Delhi, (2) in districts closer to New Delhi, and (3) in districts with higher social media interactions with New Delhi. Further, it shows that, after March 30, discriminatory fake news was more common in districts historically exposed to attacks by Muslim groups. The final paper is a political economy paper that studies the short term and long term effect of earlier eligibility on voting in the context of a large North Italian municipality setting with little institutional barriers to voting. It also studies the differing mobilisation of members in the same household by newly eligible voters.