Radiative neutron capture cross section on 238U at the n_TOF CERN facility: a high precision measurement

The aim of this work is to provide a precise and accurate measurement of the 238U(n,gamma) reaction cross-section. This reaction is of fundamental importance for the design calculations of nuclear reactors, governing the behaviour of the reactor core. In particular, fast neutron reactors, which are experiencing a growing interest for their ability to burn radioactive waste, operate in the high energy region of the neutron spectrum. In this energy region inconsistencies between the existing measurements are present up to 15%, and the most recent evaluations disagree each other. In addition, the assessment of nuclear data uncertainty performed for innovative reactor systems shows that the uncertainty in the radiative capture cross-section of 238U should be further reduced to 1-3% in the energy region from 20 eV to 25 keV. To this purpose, addressed by the Nuclear Energy Agency as a priority nuclear data need, complementary experiments, one at the GELINA and two at the n_TOF facility, were scheduled within the ANDES project within the 7th Framework Project of the European Commission. The results of one of the 238U(n,gamma) measurement performed at the n_TOF CERN facility are presented in this work, carried out with a detection system constituted of two liquid scintillators. The very accurate cross section from this work is compared with the results obtained from the other measurement performed at the n_TOF facility, which exploit a different and complementary detection technique. The excellent agreement between the two data-sets points out that they can contribute to the reduction of the cross section uncertainty down to the required 1-3%.

Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.