Data surveillance for infectious diseases: models, complex networks and machine learning

In this thesis, we investigate the role of applied physics in epidemiological surveillance through the application of mathematical models, network science and machine learning. The spread of a communicable disease depends on many biological, social, and health factors. The large masses of data available make it possible, on the one hand, to monitor the evolution and spread of pathogenic organisms; on the other hand, to study the behavior of people, their opinions and habits. Presented here are three lines of research in which an attempt was made to solve real epidemiological problems through data analysis and the use of statistical and mathematical models. In Chapter 1, we applied language-inspired Deep Learning models to transform influenza protein sequences into vectors encoding their information content. We then attempted to reconstruct the antigenic properties of different viral strains using regression models and to identify the mutations responsible for vaccine escape. In Chapter 2, we constructed a compartmental model to describe the spread of a bacterium within a hospital ward. The model was informed and validated on time series of clinical measurements, and a sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different control measures. Finally (Chapter 3) we reconstructed the network of retweets among COVID-19 themed Twitter users in the early months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. By means of community detection algorithms and centrality measures, we characterized users’ attention shifts in the network, showing that scientific communities, initially the most retweeted, lost influence over time to national political communities. In the Conclusion, we highlighted the importance of the work done in light of the main contemporary challenges for epidemiological surveillance. In particular, we present reflections on the importance of nowcasting and forecasting, the relationship between data and scientific research, and the need to unite the different scales of epidemiological surveillance.

Uncovering the encoding and transmission of behaviourally relevant information in neural activity

Most cognitive functions require the encoding and routing of information across distributed networks of brain regions. Information propagation is typically attributed to physical connections existing between brain regions, and contributes to the formation of spatially correlated activity patterns, known as functional connectivity. While structural connectivity provides the anatomical foundation for neural interactions, the exact manner in which it shapes functional connectivity is complex and not yet fully understood. Additionally, traditional measures of directed functional connectivity only capture the overall correlation between neural activity, and provide no insight on the content of transmitted information, limiting their ability in understanding neural computations underlying the distributed processing of behaviorally-relevant variables. In this work, we first study the relationship between structural and functional connectivity in simulated recurrent spiking neural networks with spike timing dependent plasticity. We use established measures of time-lagged correlation and overall information propagation to infer the temporal evolution of synaptic weights, showing that measures of dynamic functional connectivity can be used to reliably reconstruct the evolution of structural properties of the network. Then, we extend current methods of directed causal communication between brain areas, by deriving an information-theoretic measure of Feature-specific Information Transfer (FIT) quantifying the amount, content and direction of information flow. We test FIT on simulated data, showing its key properties and advantages over traditional measures of overall propagated information. We show applications of FIT to several neural datasets obtained with different recording methods (magneto and electro-encephalography, spiking activity, local field potentials) during various cognitive functions, ranging from sensory perception to decision making and motor learning. Overall, these analyses demonstrate the ability of FIT to advance the investigation of communication between brain regions, uncovering the previously unaddressed content of directed information flow.