Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

La costruzione identitaria fuori e dentro un percorso di welfare to work. Una ricerca sugli informatori scientifici del farmaco in Italia.

L’idea generale da cui parte l’attività di analisi e di ricerca della tesi è che l’identità non sia un dato acquisito ma un processo aperto. Processo che è portato avanti dall’interazione tra riconoscimento sociale del proprio ruolo lavorativo e rappresentazione soggettiva di sé. La categoria di lavoratori che è stata scelta è quella degli informatori scientifici del farmaco, in virtù del fatto che la loro identificazione con il ruolo professionale e la complessa costruzione identitaria è stata duramente messa alla prova negli ultimi anni a seguito di una profonda crisi che ha coinvolto la categoria. Per far fronte a questa crisi nel 2008 è stato creato un dispositivo, che ha visto il coinvolgimento di aziende, lavoratori, agenzie per il lavoro e organizzazioni sindacali, allo scopo di ricollocare il personale degli informatori scientifici del farmaco coinvolto in crisi e/o ristrutturazioni aziendali.

Understanding Recent Developments in the Turkish Labor Market: Empirical Essays with a Gender Focus

This dissertation comprises three essays on the Turkish labor market. The first essay characterizes the distinctive characteristics of the Turkish labor market with the aim of understanding the factors lying behind its long-standing poor performance relative to its European counterparts. The analysis is based on a cross-country comparison among selected European Union countries. Among all the indicators of labor market flexibility, non-wage cost rigidities are regarded as one of the most important factors in slowing down employment creation in Turkey. The second essay focuses on an employment subsidy policy which introduces a reduction in non-wage costs through social security premium incentives granted to women and young men. Exploiting a difference-in-difference-in differences strategy, I evaluate the effectiveness of this policy in creating employment for the target group. The results, net of the recent crisis effect, suggest that the policy accounts for a 1.4% to 1.6% increase in the probability of being hired for women aged 30 to 34 above men of the same age group in the periods shortly after the announcement of the policy. In the third essay of the dissertation, I analyze the labor supply response of married women to their husbands' job losses (AWE). I empirically test the hypothesis of added worker effect for the global economic crisis of 2008 by relying on the Turkey context. Identification is achieved by exploiting the exogenous variation in the output of male-dominated sectors hard-hit by the crisis and the gender-segmentation that characterizes the Turkish labor market. Findings based on the instrumental variable approach suggest that the added worker effect explains up to 64% of the observed increase in female labor force participation in Turkey. The size of the effect depends on how long it takes for wives to adjust their labor supply to their husbands' job losses.

Enti locali e società di capitali nella gestione di servizi pubblici locali e strumentali

La gestione di servizi pubblici locali e di servizi strumentali tramite società di capitali partecipate da enti locali viene esplorata in vista di una riconsiderazione generale del sistema all'interno del contesto socio-economico sviluppatosi negli anni successivi alla crisi economica mondiale dell'anno 2008.

Small Area Estimation of Economic Security

The objective of this thesis is the small area estimation of an economic security indicator. Economic security is a complex concept that carries a variety of meanings. In the literature there is no a formal unambiguous definition for economic security and in this work we refer to the definition recently provided for its opposite, economic insecurity, as the “anxiety produced by the possible exposure to adverse economic events and by the anticipation of the difficulty to recover from them” (Bossert and D’Ambrosio, 2013). In the last decade interest for economic insecurity/security has grown constantly, especially since the financial crisis of 2008, but even more in the last year after the economic consequences due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In this research, economic security is measures through a longitudinal indicator that takes into account the income levels of Italian households, from 2014 to 2016. The target areas are groups of Italian provinces, for which the indicator is estimated using longitudinal data taken from EU-SILC survey. We notice that the sample size is too low to obtain reliable estimates for our target areas. Therefore we resort to some Small Area Estimation strategies to improve the reliability of the results. In particular we consider small area models specified at area level. Besides the basic Fay-Herriot area-level model, we propose to consider some longitudinal extensions, including time-specific random effects following an autoregressive processes of order 1 (AR1) and a moving average of order 1 (MA1). We found that all the small area models used show a significant efficiency gain, especially MA1 model.

La paradoja de Maastricht. Los distintos modelos económicos y políticos para el futuro integrador de la UE

La crisis existencial del proyecto de integración europea constituye el principal reto al que debe enfrentarse la Comunidad en su futuro más inmediato puesto que se alza como toda una amenaza para la continuidad del sistema establecido desde el Tratado fundacional de Roma (1957). Las tres crisis acontecidas durante los primeros años del siglo XXI, véase la gran crisis económica del año 2008, la pandemia global de la Covid-19 y la actual intervención de la Federación Rusa en Ucrania, están poniendo constantemente a prueba la firmeza de los cimientos y valores sobre los cuales se ha construido la Comunidad durante todos estos años. Esta tesis doctoral pretende ser una contribución académica al debate abierto en las sociedades comunitarias acerca de por donde debe de transitar la evolución del proyecto de integración europea en los próximos años. Para conseguir alcanzar este objetivo, la investigación se retrotrae hasta los orígenes del proceso de integración y avanza en la línea temporal hasta nuestros días, analizando con ello las posibles causas que pudieran encontrarse detrás de la crisis existencial actual. A su vez, , la investigación estudia con detenimiento los múltiples efectos que está generando la problemática existencial en los Estados miembros en los últimos años, tales como el aumento del apoyo social a favor de actores considerados populistas o el fenómeno de la creciente desafección ciudadana. Esta investigación analiza los distintos escenarios propuestos por la Comisión Europea en su Libro Blanco sobre el futuro de Europa para determinar cuál podría ser el mejor escenario que concordara con la nueva realidad económica y sociopolítica que actualmente impera en los Estados miembro. Lo que se persigue es formular una propuesta que pueda dar por terminada la crisis existencial de la Comunidad abriendo con ello una nueva etapa en la historia de la integración europea.

Credit-Default-Swaps and the 2008 Financial Crisis: An Inquiry into the Underlying Legal Origins and the European Union’s Regulatory Reforms

After the 2008 financial crisis, the financial innovation product Credit-Default-Swap (CDS) was widely blamed as the main cause of this crisis. CDS is one type of over-the-counter (OTC) traded derivatives. Before the crisis, the trading of CDS was very popular among the financial institutions. But meanwhile, excessive speculative CDSs transactions in a legal environment of scant regulation accumulated huge risks in the financial system. This dissertation is divided into three parts. In Part I, we discussed the primers of the CDSs and its market development, then we analyzed in detail the roles CDSs had played in this crisis based on economic studies. It is advanced that CDSs not just promoted the eruption of the crisis in 2007 but also exacerbated it in 2008. In part II, we asked ourselves what are the legal origins of this crisis in relation with CDSs, as we believe that financial instruments could only function, positive or negative, under certain legal institutional environment. After an in-depth inquiry, we observed that at least three traditional legal doctrines were eroded or circumvented by OTC derivatives. It is argued that the malfunction of these doctrines, on the one hand, facilitated the proliferation of speculative CDSs transactions; on the other hand, eroded the original risk-control legal mechanism. Therefore, the 2008 crisis could escalate rapidly into a global financial tsunami, which was out of control of the regulators. In Part III, we focused on the European Union’s regulatory reform towards the OTC derivatives market. In specific, EU introduced mandatory central counterparty clearing obligation for qualified OTC derivatives, and requires that all OTC derivatives shall be reported to a trade repository. It is observable that EU’s approach in re-regulating the derivatives market is different with the traditional administrative regulation, but aiming at constructing a new market infrastructure for OTC derivatives.

A journey through the capital structure of the banking sector: Empirical evidence for Europe from 2008 to 2012

Systemic risk is the protagonist of the recent financial crisis. This thesis proposes a definition and a propagation mechanism for systemic risk. Risk management has a direct linkage with capital management, when addressing the question that the risk handled by a financial institution is compatible with the amount of equity available. This thesis proposes a risk management of liquid market variables, which compose the assets of a bank, based on the statistical tool of PCA. The principal component analysis will define the PCR, or Principal Components of Risk. Such definition of Risk will be adopted to test if the risk represented by PCR is explanatory of the movements of equity and/or debt for the banks included in the in the index Itraxx financial senior: the results of these regressions will be compared with a formal Capital Adequacy test in order to assess the financial soundness of the main financial European institutions.