Coastal Forests of Kenya-Ecology, Biodiversity & Conservation

Aims: the broad objective of this study is to investigate the ecological, biodiversity and conservation status of the coastal forests of Kenya fragments. The specific aims of the study are: (1) to investigate current quantitative trends in plant diversity; (2) develop a spatial and standardised vegetation database for the coastal forests Kenya; (3) investigate forest structure, species diversity and composition across the forests; (4) investigate the effect of forest fragment area on plant species diversity; (5) investigate phylogenetic diversity across these coastal remnants (6) assess vulnerability and provide conservation perspectives to concrete policy issues; (7) investigate plant and butterfly diversity correlation. Methods: I performed various analytical methods including species diversity metrics; multiple regression models for species-area relationship and small island effect; non-metric multidimensional scaling; ANOSIM; PERMANOVA; multiplicative beta diversity partitioning; species accumulation curve and species indicator analysis; statistical tests, rarefaction of species richness; phylogenetic diversity metrics of Phylogenetic diversity index, mean pairwise distance, mean nearest taxon distance, and their null-models: and Co-correspondence analysis. Results: developed the first large standardised, spatial and geo-referenced vegetation database for coastal forests of Kenya consisting of 600 plant species, across 25 forest fragments using 158 plots subdivided into 3160 subplots, 18 sacred forests and seven forest reserves; species diversity, composition and forest structure was significantly different across forest sites and between forest reserves and sacred forests, higher beta diversity, species-area relationship explained significant variability of plant diversity, small Island effect was not evident; sacred forests exhibited higher phylogenetic diversity compared to forest reserves; the threatened Red List species contributed higher evolutionary history; a strong correlation between plants and butterfly diversity. Conclusions: This study provides for the first time a standardized and large vegetation data. Results emphasizes need to improve sacred forests protection status and enhance forest connectivity across forest reserves and sacred forests.

Governing the water conservation in the Urmia Lake Basin: addressing macro systems’ fit and micro users’ behavior

To change unadapted water governing systems, and water users’ traditional conducts in line with climate change, understanding of systems’ structures and users’ behaviors is necessary. To this aim, comprehensive and pragmatic research was designed and implemented in the Urmia Lake Basin where due to the severe droughts, and human-made influences, especially through the agricultural development, the lake has been shrunken drastically. To analyze the water governance and conservation issues in the basin, an innovative framework was developed based on mathematical physics concepts and pro-environmental behavior theories. Accordingly, in system level (macro/meso), the problem of fit of the early-shaped water governing system associating with the function of “political-security” and “political-economic” factors in the basin was identified through mean-field models. Furthermore, the effect of a “political-environmental” factor, the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP), on reforming the system structure and hence its fit was assessed. The analysis results revealed that by revising the provincial boundaries (horizontal alternation) for the entity of Kurdistan province to permit that interact with the headquarter of West Azerbaijan province for its water demand-supply initiatives, the system fit can increase. Also, the constitution of the ULRP (vertical arrangement) not only could increase the structural fit of the water governing system to the basin, but also significantly could enhance the system fit through its water-saving policy. Besides, in individual level (micro), the governing factors of water conservation behavior of the major users/farmers were identified through rational and moral socio-psychological models. In rational approach, incorporating PMT and TPB, the SEM results demonstrated that “Perceived Vulnerability”, “Self-Efficacy”, “Response Efficacy”, “Response Cost”, “Subjective Norms” and “Institutional Trust” significantly affect the water-saving intention/behavior. Likewise, NAM based analysis as a moral approach, uncovered the significant effects of “Awareness of Consequences”, “Appraisal of Responsibility”, “Personal Norms” as well as “Place Attachment” and “Emotions” on water-saving intention.