El Niño southern oscillation and its effect on fog oases along the Peruvian and Chilean coastal deserts

Fog oases, locally named Lomas, are distributed in a fragmented way along the western coast of Chile and Peru (South America) between ~6°S and 30°S following an altitudinal gradient determined by a fog layer. This fragmentation has been attributed to the hyper aridity of the desert. However, periodically climatic events influence the ‘normal seasonality’ of this ecosystem through a higher than average water input that triggers plant responses (e.g. primary productivity and phenology). The impact of the climatic oscillation may vary according to the season (wet/dry). This thesis evaluates the potential effect of climate oscillations, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), through the analysis of vegetation of this ecosystem following different approaches: Chapters two and three show the analysis of fog oasis along the Peruvian and Chilean deserts. The objectives are: 1) to explain the floristic connection of fog oases analysing their taxa composition differences and the phylogenetic affinities among them, 2) to explore the climate variables related to ENSO which likely affect fog production, and the responses of Lomas vegetation (composition, productivity, distribution) to climate patterns during ENSO events. Chapters four and five describe a fog-oasis in southern Peru during the 2008-2010 period. The objectives are: 3) to describe and create a new vegetation map of the Lomas vegetation using remote sensing analysis supported by field survey data, and 4) to identify the vegetation change during the dry season. The first part of our results show that: 1) there are three significantly different groups of Lomas (Northern Peru, Southern Peru, and Chile) with a significant phylogenetic divergence among them. The species composition reveals a latitudinal gradient of plant assemblages. The species origin, growth-forms typologies, and geographic position also reinforce the differences among groups. 2) Contradictory results have emerged from studies of low-cloud anomalies and the fog-collection during El Niño (EN). EN increases water availability in fog oases when fog should be less frequent due to the reduction of low-clouds amount and stratocumulus. Because a minor role of fog during EN is expected, it is likely that measurements of fog-water collection during EN are considering drizzle and fog at the same time. Although recent studies on fog oases have shown some relationship with the ENSO, responses of vegetation have been largely based on descriptive data, the absence of large temporal records limit the establishment of a direct relationship with climatic oscillations. The second part of the results show that: 3) five different classes of different spectral values correspond to the main land cover of Lomas using a Vegetation Index (VI). The study case is characterised by shrubs and trees with variable cover (dense, semi-dense and open). A secondary area is covered by small shrubs where the dominant tree species is not present. The cacti area and the old terraces with open vegetation were not identified with the VI. Agriculture is present in the area. Finally, 4) contrary to the dry season of 2008 and 2009 years, a higher VI was obtained during the dry season of 2010. The VI increased up to three times their average value, showing a clear spectral signal change, which coincided with the ENSO event of that period.

Analysis of heat-related phenomena and their interactions at different spatio-temporal scales

This thesis analyzes the impact of heat extremes in urban and rural environments, considering processes related to severely high temperatures and unusual dryness. The first part deals with the influence of large-scale heatwave events on the local-scale urban heat island (UHI) effect. The temperatures recorded over a 20-year summer period by meteorological stations in 37 European cities are examined to evaluate the variations of UHI during heatwaves with respect to non-heatwave days. A statistical analysis reveals a negligible impact of large-scale extreme temperatures on the local daytime urban climate, while a notable exacerbation of UHI effect at night. A comparison with the UrbClim model outputs confirms the UHI strengthening during heatwave episodes, with an intensity independent of the climate zone. The investigation of the relationship between large-scale temperature anomalies and UHI highlights a smooth and continuous dependence, but with a strong variability. The lack of a threshold behavior in this relationship suggests that large-scale temperature variability can affect the local-scale UHI even in different conditions than during extreme events. The second part examines the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought, being the first stage of the drought propagation process. A multi-year reanalysis dataset involving numerous drought events over the Iberian Peninsula is considered. The behavior of different non-parametric standardized drought indices in drought detection is evaluated. A statistical approach based on run theory is employed, analyzing the main characteristics of drought propagation. The propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought events is found to develop in about 1-2 months. The duration of agricultural drought appears shorter than that of meteorological drought, but the onset is delayed. The propagation probability increases with the severity of the originating meteorological drought. A new combined agricultural drought index is developed to be a useful tool for balancing the characteristics of other adopted indices.

Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

A panchromatic study of stellar populations in Galactic Globular Clusters

The aim of this Thesis is to investigate (i) how common the bimodal Blue Straggler Stars (BSS) radial distribution is in stellar clusters and (ii) which are the physical processes that can produce this bimodality. We discuss possible relations between the properties of the BSS radial distribution and the dynamical state of the hosting clusters by making use of dynamical models and simulations. When relevant, we also discuss the possible links with some cluster "anomalies" and the effects of a massive object (like Imtermediate Mass Black Hole) in the cluster center. To this purpose we present the observational multiwavelength studies of the BSS populations and their radial distributions in 5 GGCs: M5, M55, M2, NGC 2419 and NGC 6388.

Anomalie cerebellari fetali: confronto tra ecografia e risonanza magnetica prenatale e follow up a distanza

Cerebellar malformation are increasingly diagnosed in utero. To assess the effectiveness of ultrasound and fetal magnetic resonance in the antenatal prediction of long term neurodevelopmental delay. STUDY DESIGN: We collected 105 cases of cerebellum malformation in the period 2000-2010 in Bologna and Bari University. Classification included cystic anomalies of posterior fossa and cerebellar hypoplasia. RESULTS: The greater group included Blake’s pouch cysts and mega cisterna magna cases (58/105). These cases seemed to have a good prognosis with a good outcome both in association with other anomalies and isolated. In cases of Dandy Walker malformation, vermis hypoplasia and cerebellum hypoplasia there were few survivors, so it was so difficult to outline some conclusion for child outcome. Despite great neuroimaging advances, in our study, ultrasound and MR reached a similar sensitivity (62-63%) for the diagnosis of posterior fossa anomalies, but the number of MR was lower compared with ultrasonography. CONCLUSION: Ultrasonography remains the screening method of choice for evaluation of cerebellum anatomy but probably MR imaging can improve some details expecially in the third trimester. Despite the data on Dandy Walker, vermis hypoplasia and cerebellum hypoplasia were conflicting and uncertain, for Blake and mega cisterna magna we can considered a rather good outcome.

Study of the inter-annual variability of particle vertical fluxes in two moorings in the Ross Sea (Antarctica)

The most ocean - atmosphere exchanges take place in polar environments due to the low temperatures which favor the absorption processes of atmospheric gases, in particular CO2. For this reason, the alterations of biogeochemical cycles in these areas can have a strong impact on the global climate. With the aim of contributing to the definition of the mechanisms regulating the biogeochemical fluxes we have analyzed the particles collected in the Ross Sea in different years (ROSSMIZE, BIOSESO 1 and 2, ROAVERRS and ABIOCLEAR projects) in two sites (mooring A and B). So it has been developed a more efficient method to prepare sediment trap samples for the analyses. We have also processed satellite data of sea ice, chlorophyll a and diatoms concentration. At both sites, in each year considered, there was a high seasonal and inter-annual variability of biogeochemical fluxes closely correlated with sea ice cover and primary productivity. The comparison between the samples collected at mooring A and B in 2008 highlighted the main differences between these two sites. Particle fluxes at Mooring A, located in a polynia area, are higher than mooring B ones and they happen about a month before. In the mooring B area it has been possible to correlate the particles fluxes to the ice concentration anomalies and with the atmospheric changes in response to El Niño Southern Oscillations. In 1996 and 1999, years subjected to La Niña, the concentrations of sea ice in this area have been less than in 1998, year subjected to El Niño. Inverse correlation was found for 2005 and 2008. In the mooring A area significant differences in mass and biogenic fluxes during 2005 and 2008 has been recorded. This allowed to underline the high variability of lateral advection processes and to connect them to the physical forcing.

L'azione di classe

La ricerca conduce un’indagine sull’azione di classe, introdotta nell’ordinamento italiano in epoca recente e foriera di numerose incertezze ed ambiguità interpretative, con riferimento sia allo specifico contenuto delle singole disposizioni normative che si sono alternate nel corso del tempo (determinate, sovente, dalla necessità di elidere le- di volta in volta riscontrate- anomalie e contraddizioni del tessuto normativo), sia alle possibili incongruenze tra taluni profili della disciplina oggi prevista dall’art. 140-bis del Codice del consumo e taluni principi generali dell’ordinamento, anche in materia di risarcimento del danno. Viene esaminato, anzitutto, il tema della legittimazione ad agire e del rapporto tra consumatore e l’ente rappresentativo cui questi, eventualmente, si rivolga, tentando la riconduzione di tale relazione alle ordinarie categorie privatistiche. Parimenti, è in termini di qualificazione secondo le tradizionali categorie del diritto civile che si tenta di apprezzare la natura dell’atto di adesione del soggetto che si vanti detentore di un diritto omogeneo a quello della classe cui pretende di appartenere. Vengono, quindi, esaminate le condizioni di ammissibilità dell’azione di classe e le caratteristiche peculiari della fase preliminare del giudizio di ammissibilità dell’azione. La ricerca indaga, quindi, la natura ed i possibili contenuti della sentenza che definisce il processo di classe, e conduce, nell’ultimo capitolo, una disamina relativa alle situazioni giuridiche tutelate.

Impiego dell’ecografia ad alta risoluzione nella diagnosi di anomalie cerebrali fetali difficili. Focus sul complesso anteriore.

In questo lavoro di tesi vengono prese in esame le principali anomalie cerebrali fetali a carico del complesso anteriore, formato dal cavo del setto pellucido e dai corni frontali dei ventricoli laterali. Si è poi concentrata l’attenzione sull’oloprosencefalia e sull’obliterazione del cavo del setto pellucido, analizzando i casi che sono stati riferiti c/o la U.O. di Ostetricia e Medicina dell’Età Prenatale del Policlinico di S. Orsola – IRCCS. L’oloprosencefalia racchiude in sé uno spettro di anomalie cerebrali caratterizzate da un difetto di formazione della linea mediana con forme variabili di fusione degli emisferi cerebrali. Le forme alobari mostrano una distorsione della anatomia cerebrale, con un singolo ventricolo e sono spesso associate ad anomalie extracerebrali e del cariotipo. Nelle forme semilobari e lobari il setto pellucido è generalmente assente nei piani assiali, con corni frontali fusi ed ipoplasici, ma queste caratteristiche possono essere di difficile interpretazione ad un esame di screening. Le anomalie facciali sono invece più sfuggenti. L’obliterazione del cavo del setto consiste in un suo aspetto ecogeno, normalmente disteso da fluido; è ritenuta una variante della norma, ma queste conclusioni sono basate su casistiche limitate. Anche in questo caso abbiamo riportato l’eventuale presenza di anomalie associate ed abbiamo poi rivalutato questi bambini mediante una visita specialistica presso la U.O. di Neuropsichiatria Infantile. Nella nostra esperienza di 16 casi, la neurosonografia è stata in grado di definire la presenza o meno di anomalie cerebrali associate (1 caso di cisti interemisferiche e corpo calloso disgenetico) al pari della risonanza magnetica. Nei casi apparentemente isolati, in circa il 20% tale reperto è stato transitorio nel corso della gravidanza e non sono state riportate anomalie del cariotipo. Tutte le visite di follow up eseguite nel contesto dello studio (risultati parziali di 7/15 bambini) hanno dimostrato uno sviluppo nella norma per l’età del bambino.