Revisione critica dei risultati e nuovi algoritmi decisionali sulla chirurgia dell'OSAS

Obstructive sleep apnoea/hypopnoea syndrome (OSAHS) is the periodic reduction or cessation of airflow during sleep. The syndrome is associated whit loud snoring, disrupted sleep and observed apnoeas. Surgery aims to alleviate symptoms of daytime sleepiness, improve quality of life and reduce the signs of sleep apnoea recordered by polysomnography. Surgical intervention for snoring and OSAHS includes several procedures, each designed to increase the patency of the upper airway. Procedures addressing nasal obstruction include septoplasty, turbinectomy, and radiofrequency ablation (RF) of the turbinates. Surgical procedures to reduce soft palate redundancy include uvulopalatopharyngoplasty with or without tonsillectomy, uvulopalatal flap, laser-assisted uvulopalatoplasty, and RF of the soft palate. More significant, however, particularly in cases of severe OSA, is hypopharyngeal or retrolingual obstruction related to an enlarged tongue, or more commonly due to maxillomandibular deficiency. Surgeries in these cases are aimed at reducing the bulk of the tongue base or providing more space for the tongue in the oropharynx so as to limit posterior collapse during sleep. These procedures include tongue-base suspension, genioglossal advancement, hyoid suspension, lingualplasty, and maxillomandibular advancement. We reviewed 269 patients undergoing to osas surgery at the ENT Department of Forlì Hospital in the last decade. Surgery was considered a success if the postoperative apnea/hypopnea index (AHI) was less than 20/h. According to the results, we have developed surgical decisional algorithms with the aims to optimize the success of these procedures by identifying proper candidates for surgery and the most appropriate surgical techniques. Although not without risks and not as predictable as positive airway pressure therapy, surgery remains an important treatment option for patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), particularly for those who have failed or cannot tolerate positive airway pressure therapy. Successful surgery depends on proper patient selection, proper procedure selection, and experience of the surgeon. The intended purpose of medical algorithms is to improve and standardize decisions made in the delivery of medical care, assist in standardizing selection and application of treatment regimens, to reduce potential introduction of errors. Nasal Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (nCPAP) is the recommended therapy for patients with moderate to severe OSAS. Unfortunately this treatment is not accepted by some patient, appears to be poorly tolerated in a not neglible number of subjects, and the compliance may be critical, especially in the long term if correctly evaluated with interview as well with CPAP smart cards analysis. Among the alternative options in Literature, surgery is a long time honoured solution. However until now no clear scientific evidence exists that surgery can be considered a really effective option in OSAHS management. We have design a randomized prospective study comparing MMA and a ventilatory device (Autotitrating Positive Airways Pressure – APAP) in order to understand the real effectiveness of surgery in the management of moderate to severe OSAS. Fifty consecutive previously full informed patients suffering from severe OSAHS were enrolled and randomised into a conservative (APAP) or surgical (MMA) arm. Demographic, biometric, PSG and ESS profiles of the two group were statistically not significantly different. One year after surgery or continuous APAP treatment both groups showed a remarkable improvement of mean AHI and ESS; the degree of improvement was not statistically different. Provided the relatively small sample of studied subjects and the relatively short time of follow up, MMA proved to be in our adult and severe OSAHS patients group a valuable alternative therapeutical tool with a success rate not inferior to APAP.

Provenienza dei sedimenti arenitici nel bacino di Tracia (eo-oligocene, Turchia nord-occidentale e Grecia nord-orientale)

The Thrace Basin is the largest and thickest Tertiary sedimentary basin of the eastern Balkans region and constitutes an important hydrocarbon province. It is located between the Rhodope-Strandja Massif to the north and west, the Marmara Sea and Biga Peninsula to the south, and the Black Sea to the est. It consists of a complex system of depocenters and uplifts with very articulate paleotopography indicated by abrupt lateral facies variations. Its southeastern margin is widely deformed by the Ganos Fault, a segment of the North Anatolian strike-slip fault system . Most of the Thrace Basin fill ranges from the Eocene to the Late Oligocene. Maximum total thickness, including the Neogene-Quaternary succession, reaches 9.000 meters in a few narrow depocenters. This sedimentary succession consists mainly of basin plain turbiditic deposits with a significant volcaniclastic component which evolves upwards to shelf deposits and continental facies, with deltaic bodies prograding towards the basin center in the Oligocene. This work deals with the provenance of Eocene-Oligocene clastic sediments of the southern and western part of Thrace Basin in Turkey and Greece. Sandstone compositional data (78 gross composition analyses and 40 heavy minerals analyses) were used to understand the change in detrital modes which reflects the provenance and geodinamic evolution of the basin. Samples were collected at six localities, which are from west to est: Gökçeada, Gallipoli and South-Ganos (south of Ganos Fault), Alexandroupolis, Korudağ and North-Ganos (north of Ganos Fault). Petrologic (framework composition and heavy-mineral analyses) and stratigraphic-sedimentologic data, (analysis of sedimentologic facies associations along representative stratigraphic sections, paleocurrents) allowed discrimination of six petrofacies; for each petrofacies the sediment dispersal system was delineated. The Thrace Basin fill is made mainly of lithic arkoses and arkosic litharenites with variable amount of low-grade metamorphic lithics (also ophiolitic), neovolcanic lithics, and carbonate grains (mainly extrabasinal). Picotite is the most widespread heavy mineral in all petrofacies. Petrological data on analyzed successions show a complex sediment dispersal pattern and evolution of the basin, indicating one principal detrital input from a source area located to the south, along both the İzmir-Ankara and Intra-Pontide suture lines, and a possible secondary source area, represented by the Rhodope Massif to the west. A significant portion of the Thrace Basin sediments in the study area were derived from ophiolitic source rocks and from their oceanic cover, whereas epimetamorphic detrital components came from a low-grade crystalline basement. An important penecontemporaneous volcanic component is widespread in late Eocene-Oligocene times, indicating widespread post-collisional (collapse?) volcanism following the closure of the Vardar ocean. Large-scale sediment mass wasting from south to north along the southern margin of the Thrace Basin is indicated (i) in late Eocene time by large olistoliths of ophiolites and penecontemporaneous carbonates, and (ii) in the mid-Oligocene by large volcaniclastic olistoliths. The late Oligocene paleogeographic scenario was characterized by large deltaic bodies prograding northward (Osmancik Formation). This clearly indicates that the southern margin of the basin acted as a major sediment source area throughout its Eocene-Oligocene history. Another major sediment source area is represented by the Rhodope Massif, in particolar the Circum-Rhodopic belt, especially for plutonic and metamorphic rocks. Considering preexisting data on the petrologic composition of Thrace Basin, silicilastic sediments in Greece and Bulgaria (Caracciolo, 2009), a Rhodopian provenance could be considered mostly for areas of the Thrace Basin outside our study area, particularly in the northern-central portions of the basin. In summary, the most important source area for the sediment of Thrace Basin in the study area was represented by the exhumed subduction-accretion complex along the southern margin of the basin (Biga Peninsula and western-central Marmara Sea region). Most measured paleocurrent indicators show an eastward paleoflow but this is most likely the result of gravity flow deflection. This is possible considered a strong control due to the east-west-trending synsedimentary transcurrent faults which cuts the Thrace Basin, generating a series of depocenters and uplifts which deeply influenced sediment dispersal and the areal distribution of paleoenvironments. The Thrace Basin was long interpreted as a forearc basin between a magmatic arc to the north and a subduction-accretion complex to the south, developed in a context of northward subduction. This interpretation was challenged by more recent data emphasizing the lack of a coeval magmatic arc in the north and the interpretation of the chaotic deposit which outcrop south of Ganos Fault as olistoliths and large submarine slumps, derived from the erosion and sedimentary reworking of an older mélange unit located to the south (not as tectonic mélange formed in an accretionary prism). The present study corroborates instead the hypothesis of a post-collisional origin of the Thrace Basin, due to a phase of orogenic collapse, which generated a series of mid-Eocene depocenters all along the İzmir-Ankara suture (following closure of the Vardar-İzmir-Ankara ocean and the ensuing collision); then the slab roll-back of the remnant Pindos ocean played an important role in enhancing subsidence and creating additional accommodation space for sediment deposition.

Slope stability analysis by multi-temporal DEMs and 3D modelling: The 2002 and 2007 Stromboli landslide events

Natural hazard related to the volcanic activity represents a potential risk factor, particularly in the vicinity of human settlements. Besides to the risk related to the explosive and effusive activity, the instability of volcanic edifices may develop into large landslides often catastrophically destructive, as shown by the collapse of the northern flank of Mount St. Helens in 1980. A combined approach was applied to analyse slope failures that occurred at Stromboli volcano. SdF slope stability was evaluated by using high-resolution multi-temporal DTMMs and performing limit equilibrium stability analyses. High-resolution topographical data collected with remote sensing techniques and three-dimensional slope stability analysis play a key role in understanding instability mechanism and the related risks. Analyses carried out on the 2002–2003 and 2007 Stromboli eruptions, starting from high-resolution data acquired through airborne remote sensing surveys, permitted the estimation of the lava volumes emplaced on the SdF slope and contributed to the investigation of the link between magma emission and slope instabilities. Limit Equilibrium analyses were performed on the 2001 and 2007 3D models, in order to simulate the slope behavior before 2002-2003 landslide event and after the 2007 eruption. Stability analyses were conducted to understand the mechanisms that controlled the slope deformations which occurred shortly after the 2007 eruption onset, involving the upper part of slope. Limit equilibrium analyses applied to both cases yielded results which are congruent with observations and monitoring data. The results presented in this work undoubtedly indicate that hazard assessment for the island of Stromboli should take into account the fact that a new magma intrusion could lead to further destabilisation of the slope, which may be more significant than the one recently observed because it will affect an already disarranged deposit and fractured and loosened crater area. The two-pronged approach based on the analysis of 3D multi-temporal mapping datasets and on the application of LE methods contributed to better understanding volcano flank behaviour and to be prepared to undertake actions aimed at risk mitigation.

Theoretical studies of microfluidics: "walking" drops and "melting" snowflakes.

The present PhD thesis summarizes two examples of research in microfluidics. Both times water was the subject of interest, once in the liquid state (droplets adsorbed on chemically functionalized surfaces), the other time in the solid state (ice snowflakes and their fractal behaviour). The first problem deals with a slipping nano-droplet of water adsorbed on a surface with photo-switchable wettability characteristics. Main focus was on identifying the underlying driving forces and mechanical principles at the molecular level of detail. Molecular Dynamics simulation was employed as investigative tool owing to its record of successfully describing the microscopic behaviour of liquids at interfaces. To reproduce the specialized surface on which a water droplet can effectively “walk”, a new implicit surface potential was developed. Applying this new method the experimentally observed droplet slippage could be reproduced successfully. Next the movement of the droplet was analyzed at various conditions emphasizing on the behaviour of the water molecules in contact with the surface. The main objective was to identify driving forces and molecular mechanisms underlying the slippage process. The second part of this thesis is concerned with theoretical studies of snowflake melting. In the present work snowflakes are represented by filled von Koch-like fractals of mesoscopic beads. A new algorithm has been developed from scratch to simulate the thermal collapse of fractal structures based on Monte Carlo and Random Walk Simulations (MCRWS). The developed method was applied and compared to Molecular Dynamics simulations regarding the melting of ice snowflake crystals and new parameters were derived from this comparison. Bigger snow-fractals were then studied looking at the time evolution at different temperatures again making use of the developed MCRWS method. This was accompanied by an in-depth analysis of fractal properties (border length and gyration radius) in order to shed light on the dynamics of the melting process.

Magma injections and destabilization of basaltic volcanoes: a numerical study. Application to La Reunion (Indian ocean, France) and Stromboli (Tyrrhenian sea, Italy)

Most basaltic volcanoes are affected by recurrent lateral instabilities during their evolution. Numerous factors have been shown to be involved in the process of flank destabilization occurring over long periods of time or by instantaneous failures. However, the role of these factors on the mechanical behaviour and stability of volcanic edifices is poorly-constrained as lateral failure usually results from the combined effects of several parameters. Our study focuses on the morphological and structural comparison of two end-member basaltic systems, La Reunion (Indian ocean, France) and Stromboli (southern Tyrrhenian sea, Italy). We showed that despite major differences on their volumes and geodynamic settings, both systems present some similarities as they are characterized by an intense intrusive activity along well-developed rift zones and recurrent phenomena of flank collapse during their evolution. Among the factors of instability, the examples of la Reunion and Stromboli evidence the major contribution of intrusive complexes to volcano growth and destruction as attested by field observations and the monitoring of these active volcanoes. Classical models consider the relationship between vertical intrusions of magma and flank movements along a preexisting sliding surface. A set of published and new field data from Piton des Neiges volcano (La Reunion) allowed us to recognize the role of subhorizontal intrusions in the process of flank instability and to characterize the geometry of both subvertical and subhorizontal intrusions within basaltic edifices. This study compares the results of numerical modelling of the displacements associated with high-angle and low-angle intrusions within basaltic volcanoes. We use a Mixed Boundary Element Method to investigate the mechanical response of an edifice to the injection of magmatic intrusions in different stress fields. Our results indicate that the anisotropy of the stress field favours the slip along the intrusions due to cointrusive shear stress, generating flank-scale displacements of the edifice, especially in the case of subhorizontal intrusions, capable of triggering large-scale flank collapses on basaltic volcanoes. Applications of our theoretical results to real cases of flank displacements on basaltic volcanoes (such as the 2007 eruptive crisis at La Reunion and Stromboli) revealed that the previous model of subvertical intrusions-related collapse is a likely mechanism affecting small-scale steeply-sloping basaltic volcanoes like Stromboli. Furthermore, our field study combined to modelling results confirms the importance of shallow-dipping intrusions in the morpho-structural evolution of large gently-sloping basaltic volcanoes like Piton de la Fournaise, Etna and Kilauea, with particular regards to flank instability, which can cause catastrophic tsunamis.

Development and performance assessment of a Plasma Focus electron beam generator for Intra-Operative Radiation Therapy

The Plasma Focus is a device designed to generate a plasma sheet between two coaxial electrodes by means of a high voltage difference. The plasma is then driven to collapse into a “pinch”, where thermonuclear conditions prevail. During the “pinch phase” charged particles are emitted, with two main components: an ion beam peaked forward and an electron beam directed backward. The electron beam emitted backward by Plasma Focus devices is being investigated as a radiation source for medical applications, using it to produce x-rays by interaction with appropriate targets (through bremsstrahlung and characteristic emission). A dedicated Plasma Focus device, named PFMA-3 (Plasma Focus for Medical Applications number 3), has been designed, put in operation and tested by the research groups of the Universities of Bologna and Ferrara. The very high dose rate (several gray per discharge, in less than 1 µs) is a peculiarity of this device that has to be investigated, as it might modify the relative biological effectiveness (RBE). Aim of this Ph.D. project was to investigate the main physical properties of the low-energy x-ray beams produced by a Plasma Focus device and their potential medical applications to IORT treatments. It was necessary to develop the optimal geometrical configuration; to evaluate the x-rays produced and their dose deposited; to estimate the energy electron spectrum produced in the “pinch phase”; to study an optimal target for the conversion of the x-rays; to conduct simulations to study the physics involved; and in order to evaluate the radio-biological features of the beam, cell holders had to be developed for both irradiations and cell growth conditions.

Comparison between analytical and numerical methods for the assessment of masonry arch bridges: Case study of Clemente Bridge on Savio river

This research has focused on the study of the behavior and of the collapse of masonry arch bridges. The latest decades have seen an increasing interest in this structural type, that is still present and in use, despite the passage of time and the variation of the transport means. Several strategies have been developed during the time to simulate the response of this type of structures, although even today there is no generally accepted standard one for assessment of masonry arch bridges. The aim of this thesis is to compare the principal analytical and numerical methods existing in literature on case studies, trying to highlight values and weaknesses. The methods taken in exam are mainly three: i) the Thrust Line Analysis Method; ii) the Mechanism Method; iii) the Finite Element Methods. The Thrust Line Analysis Method and the Mechanism Method are analytical methods and derived from two of the fundamental theorems of the Plastic Analysis, while the Finite Element Method is a numerical method, that uses different strategies of discretization to analyze the structure. Every method is applied to the case study through computer-based representations, that allow a friendly-use application of the principles explained. A particular closed-form approach based on an elasto-plastic material model and developed by some Belgian researchers is also studied. To compare the three methods, two different case study have been analyzed: i) a generic masonry arch bridge with a single span; ii) a real masonry arch bridge, the Clemente Bridge, built on Savio River in Cesena. In the analyses performed, all the models are two-dimensional in order to have results comparable between the different methods taken in exam. The different methods have been compared with each other in terms of collapse load and of hinge positions.

Analisi del popolamento e delle dinamiche culturali del Neolitico nella Puglia Centrale : un approccio territoriale per la Bassa Murgia

L’obiettivo della ricerca condotta dal candidato è stato sin dal principio la proposta di un’analisi del popolamento e delle dinamiche culturali dell’età neolitica nella Puglia Centrale. Tale aspirazione derivava dal fatto che il territorio oggetto di tale ricerca è stato, negli ultimi decenni, assai meno investigato rispetto alle limitrofe aree, come la piana del Tavoliere ed il Salento in particolare. Questa mancanza di informazioni rendeva necessaria una rivisitazione delle ricerche e degli studi, attraverso la costruzione di un atlante del popolamento, al fine di colmare questo vuoto. Infatti, una valutazione del popolamento dell’età neolitica nell’Italia sud-orientale non può essere considerata per aree culturali distinte e geograficamente limitate. Nonostante vi siano importanti differenziazioni di facies archeologiche, è solo attraverso una visione complessiva e con un controllo articolato delle informazioni che è possibile descrivere i processi e le dinamiche che hanno portato ad un popolamento così imponente, dalla sua espansione al repentino collasso, causando la trasformazione del paesaggio pugliese. La scelta di guardare alla complessità neolitica di questo versante della Puglia si lega culturalmente, oltre che geograficamente, alla ricerca già effettuata sulla grande diffusione del neolitico nella piana del Tavoliere di Puglia, unico esempio europeo in quanto a colonizzazione capillare del territorio..Ciò ha permesso di disegnare un quadro globale, che al momento esclude solo la penisola salentina, del popolamento neolitico della Puglia settentrionale e centrale. Le caratteristiche che differenziano i due complessi, sono strettamente legate sia all’habitat insediativo, inteso come scelte insediamentali, che nella regione indagata appare organizzato su diversi livelli (area costiera adriatica, area prospiciente antichi alvei torrentizi, propaggini dell’altopiano delle Murge), che alle forme culturali, intese come produzione artigianale e soprattutto aspetti rituali connessi alla frequentazione delle grotte naturali.

Wide-scale population genomics of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) inferred by novel high-throughput technology

My PhD project was focused on Atlantic bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus, a fishery resource overexploited in the last decades. For a better management of stocks, it was necessary to improve scientific knowledge of this species and to develop novel tools to avoid collapse of this important commercial resource. To do this, we used new high throughput sequencing technologies, as Next Generation Sequencing (NGS), and markers linked to expressed genes, as SNPs (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms). In this work we applied a combined approach: transcriptomic resources were used to build cDNA libreries from mRNA isolated by muscle, and genomic resources allowed to create a reference backbone for this species lacking of reference genome. All cDNA reads, obtained from mRNA, were mapped against this genome and, employing several bioinformatics tools and different restricted parameters, we achieved a set of contigs to detect SNPs. Once a final panel of 384 SNPs was developed, following the selection criteria, it was genotyped in 960 individuals of Atlantic bluefin tuna, including all size/age classes, from larvae to adults, collected from the entire range of the species. The analysis of obtained data was aimed to evaluate the genetic diversity and the population structure of Thunnus thynnus. We detect a low but significant signal of genetic differentiation among spawning samples, that can suggest the presence of three genetically separate reproduction areas. The adult samples resulted instead genetically undifferentiated between them and from the spawning populations, indicating a presence of panmictic population of adult bluefin tuna in the Mediterranean Sea, without different meta populations.

Modelli semplificati per valutazione di vulnerabilità sismica di strutture in muratura

L'obiettivo della tesi è stato quello di indagare il complesso problema della vulnerabilità sismica dei ponte in muratura ad arco utilizzando modelli semplificati. Dopo una descrizione dei materiali da costruzione impiegati nella realizzazione e dei principali elementi dei un ponti in muratura, si è indirizzato lo studio di un ponte ad arco situato nel comune di San Marcello Pistoiese. Viene mostrato un modello numerico che permette di descrivere il comportamento strutturale del ponte sotto azione sismica e di valutare la capacità di carico del ponte sottoposto ad una azione trasversale. In un secondo momento viene descritta la realizzazione di un modello in scala del ponte, che è stato sottoposto a prove distruttive effettuate per valutare la capacità di carico del ponte rispetto ad un ipotetica azione orizzontale. Si è cercato poi di inquadrare il problema in un modello teorico che faccia riferimento all'analisi limite. Esso descrive un cinematismo di collasso a telaio che prende spunto dal quadro fessurativo del modello in muratura. Infine sono stati presentati modelli FEM numerici in ordine di complessità crescente, cercando di inquadrare il comportamento meccanico del prototipo del ponte. Tre tipi di modelli sono rappresentati: un telaio incernierato alle estremità costituito da elementi beam con resistenza alla flessione . Il secondo tipo è costituito da una reticolare equivalente che mima lo schema del ponte ed è formato solo da bielle. Infine, il terzo tipo cerca di descrivere l'intero modello con elementi tridimensionali.

Scaled down physical properties of semiconductor nanowires for nanoelectronics scaling up

Semiconductor nanowires (NWs) are one- or quasi one-dimensional systems whose physical properties are unique as compared to bulk materials because of their nanoscaled sizes. They bring together quantum world and semiconductor devices. NWs-based technologies may achieve an impact comparable to that of current microelectronic devices if new challenges will be faced. This thesis primarily focuses on two different, cutting-edge aspects of research over semiconductor NW arrays as pivotal components of NW-based devices. The first part deals with the characterization of electrically active defects in NWs. It has been elaborated the set-up of a general procedure which enables to employ Deep Level Transient Spectroscopy (DLTS) to probe NW arrays’ defects. This procedure has been applied to perform the characterization of a specific system, i.e. Reactive Ion Etched (RIE) silicon NW arrays-based Schottky barrier diodes. This study has allowed to shed light over how and if growth conditions introduce defects in RIE processed silicon NWs. The second part of this thesis concerns the bowing induced by electron beam and the subsequent clustering of gallium arsenide NWs. After a justified rejection of the mechanisms previously reported in literature, an original interpretation of the electron beam induced bending has been illustrated. Moreover, this thesis has successfully interpreted the formation of NW clusters in the framework of the lateral collapse of fibrillar structures. These latter are both idealized models and actual artificial structures used to study and to mimic the adhesion properties of natural surfaces in lizards and insects (Gecko effect). Our conclusion are that mechanical and surface properties of the NWs, together with the geometry of the NW arrays, play a key role in their post-growth alignment. The same parameters open, then, to the benign possibility of locally engineering NW arrays in micro- and macro-templates.

Tra pacifismo e ambientalismo: il Nuclear Freeze Movement e la risposta dell'amministrazione Reagan

Negli anni Ottanta si assiste tanto nel vecchio quanto nel nuovo continente alla rinascita del movimento antinucleare. Mentre in Europa l’origine di questa ondata di proteste antinucleari è collegata alla “doppia decisione” NATO del 1979, negli Stati Uniti la genesi si colloca nel contesto dalla mobilitazione dei gruppi ambientalisti in seguito all’incidente alla centrale nucleare di Three Mile Island. Dopo l’elezione di Ronald Reagan, alle proteste contro le applicazioni pacifiche dell’atomo si affiancarono quelle contro la politica nucleare del Paese. La retorica di Reagan, il massiccio piano di riarmo, unitamente al rinnovato deteriorarsi delle relazioni tra USA e URSS contribuirono a diffondere nell’opinione pubblica la sensazione che l’amministrazione Reagan, almeno da un punto di vista teorico, non avesse escluso dalle sue opzioni il ricorso alle armi nucleari nel caso di un confronto con l’URSS. I timori legati a questa percezione produssero una nuova ondata di proteste che assunsero dimensioni di massa grazie alla mobilitazione provocata dalla Nuclear Weapons Freeze Campaign (NWFC). Il target della NWFC era l’ampio programma di riarmo nucleare sostenuto da Reagan, che secondo gli attivisti nucleari, in un quadro di crescenti tensioni internazionali, avrebbe fatto aumentare le possibilità di uno scontro atomico. Per evitare lo scenario dell’olocausto nucleare, la NWFC proponeva «un congelamento bilaterale e verificabile del collaudo, dell’installazione e della produzione di armi nucleari». L’idea del nuclear freeze, che era concepito come un passo per fermare la spirale del riarmo e tentare successivamente di negoziare riduzioni negli arsenali delle due superpotenze, riscosse un tale consenso nell’opinione pubblica americana da indurre l’amministrazione Reagan a formulare una risposta specifica. Durante la primavera del 1982 fu, infatti, creato un gruppo interdipartimentale ad hoc, l’Arms Control Information Policy Group, con il compito di arginare l’influenza della NWFC sull’opinione pubblica americana e formulare una risposta coerente alle critiche del movimento antinucleare.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Retrofit Options to Support Decision Making

How to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of repair/retrofit intervention vs. demolition/replacement and what level of shaking intensity can the chosen repairing/retrofit technique sustain are open questions affecting either the pre-earthquake prevention, the post-earthquake emergency and the reconstruction phases. The (mis)conception that the cost of retrofit interventions would increase linearly with the achieved seismic performance (%NBS) often discourages stakeholders to consider repair/retrofit options in a post-earthquake damage situation. Similarly, in a pre-earthquake phase, the minimum (by-law) level of %NBS might be targeted, leading in some cases to no-action. Furthermore, the performance measure enforcing owners to take action, the %NBS, is generally evaluated deterministically. Not directly reflecting epistemic and aleatory uncertainties, the assessment can result in misleading confidence on the expected performance. The present study aims at contributing to the delicate decision-making process of repair/retrofit vs. demolition/replacement, by developing a framework to assist stakeholders with the evaluation of the effects in terms of long-term losses and benefits of an increment in their initial investment (targeted retrofit level) and highlighting the uncertainties hidden behind a deterministic approach. For a pre-1970 case study building, different retrofit solutions are considered, targeting different levels of %NBS, and the actual probability of reaching Collapse when considering a suite of ground-motions is evaluated, providing a correlation between %NBS and Risk. Both a simplified and a probabilistic loss modelling are then undertaken to study the relationship between %NBS and expected direct and indirect losses.