Towards Rapid Environmental Assessment and Coastal Forecasting in the Northern Adriatic Sea

A new Coastal Rapid Environmental Assessment (CREA) strategy has been developed and successfully applied to the Northern Adriatic Sea. CREA strategy exploits the recent advent of operational oceanography to establish a CREA system based on an operational regional forecasting system and coastal monitoring networks of opportunity. The methodology wishes to initialize a coastal high resolution model, nested within the regional forecasting system, blending the large scale parent model fields with the available coastal observations to generate the requisite field estimates. CREA modeling system consists of a high resolution, O(800m), Adriatic SHELF model (ASHELF) implemented into the Northern Adriatic basin and nested within the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) (Oddo et al. 2006). The observational system is composed by the coastal networks established in the framework of ADRICOSM (ADRiatic sea integrated COastal areaS and river basin Managment system) Pilot Project. An assimilation technique exerts a correction of the initial field provided by AFS on the basis of the available observations. The blending of the two data sets has been carried out through a multi-scale optimal interpolation technique developed by Mariano and Brown (1992). Two CREA weekly exercises have been conducted: the first, at the beginning of May (spring experiment); the second in middle August (summer experiment). The weeks have been chosen looking at the availability of all coastal observations in the initialization day and one week later to validate model results, verifying our predictive skills. ASHELF spin up time has been investigated too, through a dedicated experiment, in order to obtain the maximum forecast accuracy within a minimum time. Energetic evaluations show that for the Northern Adriatic Sea and for the forcing applied, a spin-up period of one week allows ASHELF to generate new circulation features enabled by the increased resolution and its total kinetic energy to establish a new dynamical balance. CREA results, evaluated by mean of standard statistics between ASHELF and coastal CTDs, show improvement deriving from the initialization technique and a good model performance in the coastal areas of the Northern Adriatic basin, characterized by a shallow and wide continental shelf subject to substantial freshwater influence from rivers. Results demonstrate the feasibility of our CREA strategy to support coastal zone management and wish an additional establishment of operational coastal monitoring activities to advance it.

Climate impact studies of sediment transport on the Adriatic coastal zone

The study of the impact of climate change on the environment has been based, until very recently, on an global approach, whose interest from a local point of view is very limited. This thesis, on the contrary, has treated the study of the impact of climate change in the Adriatic Sea basin following a twofold strategy of regionalization and integration of numerical models in order to reproduce the present and future scenarios of the system through a more and more realistic and solid approach. In particular the focus of the study was on the impact on the physical environment and on the sediment transport in the basin. This latter is a very new and original issue, to our knowledge still uninvestigated. The study case of the coastal area of Montenegro was particularly studied, since it is characterized by an important supply of sediment through the Buna/Bojana river, second most important in the Adriatic basin in terms of flow. To do this, a methodology to introduce the tidal processes in a baroclinic primitive equations Ocean General Circulation Model was applied and tidal processes were successfully reproduced in the Adriatic Sea, analyzing also the impacts they have on the mean general circulation, on salt and heat transport and on mixing and stratification of the water column in the different seasons of the year. The new hydrodynamical model has been further coupled with a wave model and with a river and sea sediment transport model, showing good results in the reproduction of sediment transport processes. Finally this complex coupled platform was integrated in the period 2001-2030 under the A1B scenario of IPCC, and the impact of climate change on the physical system and on sediment transport was preliminarily evaluated.