Toward a Magnitude Scale for Low Frequency Seismicity The LP energy for Campi Flegrei caldera

The energy released during a seismic crisis in volcanic areas is strictly related to the physical processes in the volcanic structure. In particular Long Period seismicity, that seems to be related to the oscillation of a fluid-filled crack (Chouet , 1996, Chouet, 2003, McNutt, 2005), can precedes or accompanies an eruption. The present doctoral thesis is focused on the study of the LP seismicity recorded in the Campi Flegrei volcano (Campania, Italy) during the October 2006 crisis. Campi Flegrei Caldera is an active caldera; the combination of an active magmatic system and a dense populated area make the Campi Flegrei a critical volcano. The source dynamic of LP seismicity is thought to be very different from the other kind of seismicity ( Tectonic or Volcano Tectonic): it’s characterized by a time sustained source and a low content in frequency. This features implies that the duration–magnitude, that is commonly used for VT events and sometimes for LPs as well, is unadapted for LP magnitude evaluation. The main goal of this doctoral work was to develop a method for the determination of the magnitude for the LP seismicity; it’s based on the comparison of the energy of VT event and LP event, linking the energy to the VT moment magnitude. So the magnitude of the LP event would be the moment magnitude of a VT event with the same energy of the LP. We applied this method to the LP data-set recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera in 2006, to an LP data-set of Colima volcano recorded in 2005 – 2006 and for an event recorded at Etna volcano. Experimenting this method to lots of waveforms recorded at different volcanoes we tested its easy applicability and consequently its usefulness in the routinely and in the quasi-real time work of a volcanological observatory.

Elastic Propagation in random media: applications to the imaging of volcano structures

High-frequency seismograms contain features that reflect the random inhomogeneities of the earth. In this work I use an imaging method to locate the high contrast small- scale heterogeneity respect to the background earth medium. This method was first introduced by Nishigami (1991) and than applied to different volcanic and tectonically active areas (Nishigami, 1997, Nishigami, 2000, Nishigami, 2006). The scattering imaging method is applied to two volcanic areas: Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius. Volcanic and seismological active areas are often characterized by complex velocity structures, due to the presence of rocks with different elastic properties. I introduce some modifications to the original method in order to make it suitable for small and highly complex media. In particular, for very complex media the single scattering approximation assumed by Nishigami (1991) is not applicable as the mean free path becomes short. The multiple scattering or diffusive approximation become closer to the reality. In this thesis, differently from the ordinary Nishigami’s method (Nishigami, 1991), I use the mean of the recorded coda envelope as reference curve and calculate the variations from this average envelope. In this way I implicitly do not assume any particular scattering regime for the "average" scattered radiation, whereas I consider the variations as due to waves that are singularly scattered from the strongest heterogeneities. The imaging method is applied to a relatively small area (20 x 20 km), this choice being justified by the small length of the analyzed codas of the low magnitude earthquakes. I apply the unmodified Nishigami’s method to the volcanic area of Campi Flegrei and compare the results with the other tomographies done in the same area. The scattering images, obtained with frequency waves around 18 Hz, show the presence of high scatterers in correspondence with the submerged caldera rim in the southern part of the Pozzuoli bay. Strong scattering is also found below the Solfatara crater, characterized by the presence of densely fractured, fluid-filled rocks and by a strong thermal anomaly. The modified Nishigami’s technique is applied to the Mt. Vesuvius area. Results show a low scattering area just below the central cone and a high scattering area around it. The high scattering zone seems to be due to the contrast between the high rigidity body located beneath the crater and the low rigidity materials located around it. The central low scattering area overlaps the hydrothermal reservoirs located below the central cone. An interpretation of the results in terms of geological properties of the medium is also supplied, aiming to find a correspondence of the scattering properties and the geological nature of the material. A complementary result reported in this thesis is that the strong heterogeneity of the volcanic medium create a phenomenon called "coda localization". It has been verified that the shape of the seismograms recorded from the stations located at the top of the volcanic edifice of Mt. Vesuvius is different from the shape of the seismograms recorded at the bottom. This behavior is justified by the consideration that the coda energy is not uniformly distributed within a region surrounding the source for great lapse time.

Numerical simulations of magma chamber dynamics at Campi Flegrei, and associated seismicity, deformation and gravity changes

Understanding the complex relationships between quantities measured by volcanic monitoring network and shallow magma processes is a crucial headway for the comprehension of volcanic processes and a more realistic evaluation of the associated hazard. This question is very relevant at Campi Flegrei, a volcanic quiescent caldera immediately north-west of Napoli (Italy). The system activity shows a high fumarole release and periodic ground slow movement (bradyseism) with high seismicity. This activity, with the high people density and the presence of military and industrial buildings, makes Campi Flegrei one of the areas with higher volcanic hazard in the world. In such a context my thesis has been focused on magma dynamics due to the refilling of shallow magma chambers, and on the geophysical signals detectable by seismic, deformative and gravimetric monitoring networks that are associated with this phenomenologies. Indeed, the refilling of magma chambers is a process frequently occurring just before a volcanic eruption; therefore, the faculty of identifying this dynamics by means of recorded signal analysis is important to evaluate the short term volcanic hazard. The space-time evolution of dynamics due to injection of new magma in the magma chamber has been studied performing numerical simulations with, and implementing additional features in, the code GALES (Longo et al., 2006), recently developed and still on the upgrade at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in Pisa (Italy). GALES is a finite element code based on a physico-mathematical two dimensional, transient model able to treat fluids as multiphase homogeneous mixtures, compressible to incompressible. The fundamental equations of mass, momentum and energy balance are discretised both in time and space using the Galerkin Least-Squares and discontinuity-capturing stabilisation technique. The physical properties of the mixture are computed as a function of local conditions of magma composition, pressure and temperature.The model features enable to study a broad range of phenomenologies characterizing pre and sin-eruptive magma dynamics in a wide domain from the volcanic crater to deep magma feeding zones. The study of displacement field associated with the simulated fluid dynamics has been carried out with a numerical code developed by the Geophysical group at the University College Dublin (O’Brien and Bean, 2004b), with whom we started a very profitable collaboration. In this code, the seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous media with free surface (e.g. the Earth’s surface) is simulated using a discrete elastic lattice where particle interactions are controlled by the Hooke’s law. This method allows to consider medium heterogeneities and complex topography. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations have been defined within a coordinate project (INGV-DPC 2004-06 V3_2 “Research on active volcanoes, precursors, scenarios, hazard and risk - Campi Flegrei”), to which this thesis contributes, and many researchers experienced on Campi Flegrei in volcanological, seismic, petrological, geochemical fields, etc. collaborate. Numerical simulations of magma and rock dynamis have been coupled as described in the thesis. The first part of the thesis consists of a parametric study aimed at understanding the eect of the presence in magma of carbon dioxide in magma in the convection dynamics. Indeed, the presence of this volatile was relevant in many Campi Flegrei eruptions, including some eruptions commonly considered as reference for a future activity of this volcano. A set of simulations considering an elliptical magma chamber, compositionally uniform, refilled from below by a magma with volatile content equal or dierent from that of the resident magma has been performed. To do this, a multicomponent non-ideal magma saturation model (Papale et al., 2006) that considers the simultaneous presence of CO2 and H2O, has been implemented in GALES. Results show that the presence of CO2 in the incoming magma increases its buoyancy force promoting convection ad mixing. The simulated dynamics produce pressure transients with frequency and amplitude in the sensitivity range of modern geophysical monitoring networks such as the one installed at Campi Flegrei . In the second part, simulations more related with the Campi Flegrei volcanic system have been performed. The simulated system has been defined on the basis of conditions consistent with the bulk of knowledge of Campi Flegrei and in particular of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 B.P.), commonly considered as reference for a future high intensity eruption in this area. The magmatic system has been modelled as a long dyke refilling a small shallow magma chamber; magmas with trachytic and phonolitic composition and variable volatile content of H2O and CO2 have been considered. The simulations have been carried out changing the condition of magma injection, the system configuration (magma chamber geometry, dyke size) and the resident and refilling magma composition and volatile content, in order to study the influence of these factors on the simulated dynamics. Simulation results allow to follow each step of the gas-rich magma ascent in the denser magma, highlighting the details of magma convection and mixing. In particular, the presence of more CO2 in the deep magma results in more ecient and faster dynamics. Through this simulations the variation of the gravimetric field has been determined. Afterward, the space-time distribution of stress resulting from numerical simulations have been used as boundary conditions for the simulations of the displacement field imposed by the magmatic dynamics on rocks. The properties of the simulated domain (rock density, P and S wave velocities) have been based on data from literature on active and passive tomographic experiments, obtained through a collaboration with A. Zollo at the Dept. of Physics of the Federici II Univeristy in Napoli. The elasto-dynamics simulations allow to determine the variations of the space-time distribution of deformation and the seismic signal associated with the studied magmatic dynamics. In particular, results show that these dynamics induce deformations similar to those measured at Campi Flegrei and seismic signals with energies concentrated on the typical frequency bands observed in volcanic areas. The present work shows that an approach based on the solution of equations describing the physics of processes within a magmatic fluid and the surrounding rock system is able to recognise and describe the relationships between geophysical signals detectable on the surface and deep magma dynamics. Therefore, the results suggest that the combined study of geophysical data and informations from numerical simulations can allow in a near future a more ecient evaluation of the short term volcanic hazard.

Continuous geochemical monitoring by mass-spectometer in the Campi Flegrei geothermal area. An application at Pisciarelli-Solfatara (diffuse and fumarolic gases) and at the mud gases during drilling of the CFDDP pilot hole

During this work has been developed an innovative methodology for continuous and in situ gas monitoring (24/24 h) of fumarolic and soil diffusive emissions applied to the geothermal and volcanic area of Pisciarelli near Agnano inside the Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc). In literature there are only scattered and in discrete data of the geochemical gas composition of fumarole at Campi Flegrei; it is only since the early ’80 that exist a systematic record of fumaroles with discrete sampling at Solfatara (Bocca Grande and Bocca Nuova fumaroles) and since 1999, even at the degassing areas of Pisciarelli. This type of sampling has resulted in a time series of geochemical analysis with discontinuous periods of time set (in average 2-3 measurements per month) completely inadequate for the purposes of Civil Defence in such high volcanic risk and densely populated areas. For this purpose, and to remedy this lack of data, during this study was introduced a new methodology of continuous and in situ sampling able to continuously detect data related and from its soil diffusive degassing. Due to its high sampling density (about one measurement per minute therefore producing 1440 data daily) and numerous species detected (CO2, Ar, 36Ar, CH4, He, H2S, N2, O2) allowing a good statistic record and the reconstruction of the gas composition evolution of the investigated area. This methodology is based on continuous sampling of fumaroles gases and soil degassing using an extraction line, which after undergoing a series of condensation processes of the water vapour content - better described hereinafter - is analyzed through using a quadrupole mass spectrometer

Towards the 3D attenuation imaging of active volcanoes: methods and tests on real and simulated data

The purpose of my PhD thesis has been to face the issue of retrieving a three dimensional attenuation model in volcanic areas. To this purpose, I first elaborated a robust strategy for the analysis of seismic data. This was done by performing several synthetic tests to assess the applicability of spectral ratio method to our purposes. The results of the tests allowed us to conclude that: 1) spectral ratio method gives reliable differential attenuation (dt*) measurements in smooth velocity models; 2) short signal time window has to be chosen to perform spectral analysis; 3) the frequency range over which to compute spectral ratios greatly affects dt* measurements. Furthermore, a refined approach for the application of spectral ratio method has been developed and tested. Through this procedure, the effects caused by heterogeneities of propagation medium on the seismic signals may be removed. The tested data analysis technique was applied to the real active seismic SERAPIS database. It provided a dataset of dt* measurements which was used to obtain a three dimensional attenuation model of the shallowest part of Campi Flegrei caldera. Then, a linearized, iterative, damped attenuation tomography technique has been tested and applied to the selected dataset. The tomography, with a resolution of 0.5 km in the horizontal directions and 0.25 km in the vertical direction, allowed to image important features in the off-shore part of Campi Flegrei caldera. High QP bodies are immersed in a high attenuation body (Qp=30). The latter is well correlated with low Vp and high Vp/Vs values and it is interpreted as a saturated marine and volcanic sediments layer. High Qp anomalies, instead, are interpreted as the effects either of cooled lava bodies or of a CO2 reservoir. A pseudo-circular high Qp anomaly was detected and interpreted as the buried rim of NYT caldera.