Essays in behavioral economics

In this work we conduct an experimental analysis on different behavioral models of economic choice. In particular, we analyze the role of overconfidence in shaping the beliefs of economics agents about the future path of their consumption or investment. We discuss the relevance of this bias in expectation formation both from a static and from a dynamic point of view and we analyze the effect of possible interventions aimed to achieve some policy goals. The methodology we follow is both theoretical and empirical. In particular, we make large use of controlled economic field experiments in order to test the predictions of the theoretical models we propose. In the second part of the thesis we discuss the role of cognition and personality in affecting economic preferences and choices. In this way we make a bridge between established psychological research and novel findings in economics. Finally, we conduct a field study on the role of incentives on education. We design different incentive schemes and we test, on randomized groups of students, their effectiveness in improving academic performance.

Data and behavioral contracts for web services

The recent trend in Web services is fostering a computing scenario where loosely coupled parties interact in a distributed and dynamic environment. Such interactions are sequences of xml messages and in order to assemble parties – either statically or dynamically – it is important to verify that the “contracts” of the parties are “compatible”. The Web Service Description Language (wsdl) is a standard used for describing one-way (asynchronous) and request/response (synchronous) interactions. Web Service Conversation Language extends wscl contracts by allowing the description of arbitrary, possibly cyclic sequences of exchanged messages between communicating parties. Unfortunately, neither wsdl nor wscl can effectively define a notion of compatibility, for the very simple reason that they do not provide any formal characterization of their contract languages. We define two contract languages for Web services. The first one is a data contract language and allow us to describe a Web service in terms of messages (xml documents) that can be sent or received. The second one is a behavioral contract language and allow us to give an abstract definition of the Web service conversation protocol. Both these languages are equipped with a sort of “sub-typing” relation and, therefore, they are suitable to be used for querying Web services repositories. In particular a query for a service compatible with a given contract may safely return services with “greater” contract.

Reasoning with incomplete and imprecise preferences

Preferences are present in many real life situations but it is often difficult to quantify them giving a precise value. Sometimes preference values may be missing because of privacy reasons or because they are expensive to obtain or to produce. In some other situations the user of an automated system may have a vague idea of whats he wants. In this thesis we considered the general formalism of soft constraints, where preferences play a crucial role and we extended such a framework to handle both incomplete and imprecise preferences. In particular we provided new theoretical frameworks to handle such kinds of preferences. By admitting missing or imprecise preferences, solving a soft constraint problem becomes a different task. In fact, the new goal is to find solutions which are the best ones independently of the precise value the each preference may have. With this in mind we defined two notions of optimality: the possibly optimal solutions and the necessary optimal solutions, which are optimal no matter we assign a precise value to a missing or imprecise preference. We provided several algorithms, bases on both systematic and local search approaches, to find such kind of solutions. Moreover, we also studied the impact of our techniques also in a specific class of problems (the stable marriage problems) where imprecision and incompleteness have a specific meaning and up to now have been tackled with different techniques. In the context of the classical stable marriage problem we developed a fair method to randomly generate stable marriages of a given problem instance. Furthermore, we adapted our techniques to solve stable marriage problems with ties and incomplete lists, which are known to be NP-hard, obtaining good results both in terms of size of the returned marriage and in terms of steps need to find a solution.

Essays in Behavioral Personnel Economics

The thesis contemplates 4 papers and its main goal is to provide evidence on the prominent impact that behavioral analysis can play into the personnel economics domain.The research tool prevalently used in the thesis is the experimental analysis.The first paper provide laboratory evidence on how the standard screening model–based on the assumption that the pecuniary dimension represents the main workers’choice variable–fails when intrinsic motivation is introduced into the analysis.The second paper explores workers’ behavioral reactions when dealing with supervisors that may incur in errors in the assessment of their job performance.In particular,deserving agents that have exerted high effort may not be rewarded(Type-I errors)and undeserving agents that have exerted low effort may be rewarded(Type-II errors).Although a standard neoclassical model predicts both errors to be equally detrimental for effort provision,this prediction fails when tested through a laboratory experiment.Findings from this study suggest how failing to reward deserving agents is significantly more detrimental than rewarding undeserving agents.The third paper investigates the performance of two antithetic non-monetary incentive schemes on schooling achievement.The study is conducted through a field experiment.Students randomized to the main treatments have been incentivized to cooperate or to compete in order to earn additional exam points.Consistently with the theoretical model proposed in the paper,the level of effort in the competitive scheme proved to be higher than in the cooperative setting.Interestingly however,this result is characterized by a strong gender effect.The fourth paper exploits a natural experiment setting generated by the credit crunch occurred in the UK in the2007.The economic turmoil has negatively influenced the private sector,while public sector employees have not been directly hit by the crisis.This shock–through the rise of the unemployment rate and the increasing labor market uncertainty–has generated an exogenous variation in the opportunity cost of maternity leave in private sector labor force.This paper identifies the different responses.

The future in action: neurophysiological and behavioral evidence of anticipatory motor simulation.

The motor system can no longer be considered as a mere passive executive system of motor commands generated elsewhere in the brain. On the contrary, it is deeply involved in perceptual and cognitive functions and acts as an “anticipation device”. The present thesis investigates the anticipatory motor mechanisms occurring in two particular instances: i) when processing sensory events occurring within the peripersonal space (PPS); and ii) when perceiving and predicting others’actions. The first study provides evidence that PPS representation in humans modulates neural activity within the motor system, while the second demonstrates that the motor mapping of sensory events occurring within the PPS critically relies on the activity of the premotor cortex. The third study provides direct evidence that the anticipatory motor simulation of others’ actions critically relies on the activity of the anterior node of the action observation network (AON), namely the inferior frontal cortex (IFC). The fourth study, sheds light on the pivotal role of the left IFC in predicting the future end state of observed right-hand actions. Finally, the fifth study examines how the ability to predict others’ actions could be influenced by a reduction of sensorimotor experience due to the traumatic or congenital loss of a limb. Overall, the present work provides new insights on: i) the anticipatory mechanisms of the basic reactivity of the motor system when processing sensory events occurring within the PPS, and the same anticipatory motor mechanisms when perceiving others’ implied actions; ii) the functional connectivity and plasticity of premotor-motor circuits both during the motor mapping of sensory events occurring within the PPS and when perceiving others’ actions; and iii) the anticipatory mechanisms related to others’ actions prediction.

Social Welfare and Behavioral Public Policies

In this work I discuss several key aspects of welfare economics and policy analysis and I propose two original contributions to the growing field of behavioral public policymaking. After providing a historical perspective of welfare economics and an overview of policy analysis processes in the introductory chapter, in chapter 2 I discuss a debated issue of policymaking, the choice of the social welfare function. I contribute to this debate by proposing an original methodological contribution based on the analysis of the quantitative relationship among different social welfare functional forms commonly used by policy analysts. In chapter 3 I then discuss a behavioral policy to contrast indirect tax evasion based on the use of lotteries. I show that the predictions of my model based on non-expected utility are consistent with observed, and so far unexplained, empirical evidence of the policy success. Finally, in chapter 4 I investigate by mean of a laboratory experiment the effects of social influence on the individual likelihood to engage in altruistic punishment. I show that bystanders’ decision to engage in punishment is influenced by the punishment behavior of their peers and I suggest ways to enact behavioral policies that exploit this finding.

Essays in Health Economics

In the first chapter we develop a theoretical model investigating food consumption and body weight with a novel assumption regarding human caloric expenditure (i.e. metabolism), in order to investigate why individuals can be rationally trapped in an excessive weight equilibrium and why they struggle to lose weight even when offered incentives for weight-loss. This assumption allows the theoretical model to have multiple equilibria and to provide an explanation for why losing weight is so difficult even in the presence of incentives, without relying on rational addiction, time-inconsistency preferences or bounded rationality. In addition to this result we are able to characterize under which circumstances a temporary incentive can create a persistent weight loss. In the second chapter we investigate the possible contributions that social norms and peer effects had on the spread of obesity. In recent literature peer effects and social norms have been characterized as important pathways for the biological and behavioral spread of body weight, along with decreased food prices and physical activity. We add to this literature by proposing a novel concept of social norm related to what we define as social distortion in weight perception. The theoretical model shows that, in equilibrium, the effect of an increase in peers' weight on i's weight is unrelated to health concerns while it is mainly associated with social concerns. Using regional data from England we prove that such social component is significant in influencing individual weight. In the last chapter we investigate the relationship between body weight and employment probability. Using a semi-parametric regression we show that men and women employment probability do not follow a linear relationship with body mass index (BMI) but rather an inverted U-shaped one, peaking at a BMI way over the clinical threshold for overweight.