7 resultados para Bayesian animal model
em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna
Resumo:
Background and aims: Sorafenib is the reference therapy for advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). No method exists to predict in the very early period subsequent individual response. Starting from the clinical experience in humans that subcutaneous metastases may rapidly change consistency under sorafenib and that elastosonography a new ultrasound based technique allows assessment of tissue stiffness, we investigated the role of elastonography in the very early prediction of tumor response to sorafenib in a HCC animal model. Methods: HCC (Huh7 cells) subcutaneous xenografting in mice was utilized. Mice were randomized to vehicle or treatment with sorafenib when tumor size was 5-10 mm. Elastosonography (Mylab 70XVG, Esaote, Genova, Italy) of the whole tumor mass on a sagittal plane with a 10 MHz linear transducer was performed at different time points from treatment start (day 0, +2, +4, +7 and +14) until mice were sacrified (day +14), with the operator blind to treatment. In order to overcome variability in absolute elasticity measurement when assessing changes over time, values were expressed in arbitrary units as relative stiffness of the tumor tissue in comparison to the stiffness of a standard reference stand-off pad lying on the skin over the tumor. Results: Sor-treated mice showed a smaller tumor size increase at day +14 in comparison to vehicle-treated (tumor volume increase +192.76% vs +747.56%, p=0.06). Among Sor-treated tumors, 6 mice showed a better response to treatment than the other 4 (increase in volume +177% vs +553%, p=0.011). At day +2, median tumor elasticity increased in Sor-treated group (+6.69%, range –30.17-+58.51%), while decreased in the vehicle group (-3.19%, range –53.32-+37.94%) leading to a significant difference in absolute values (p=0.034). From this time point onward, elasticity decreased in both groups, with similar speed over time, not being statistically different anymore. In Sor-treated mice all 6 best responders at day 14 showed an increase in elasticity at day +2 (ranging from +3.30% to +58.51%) in comparison to baseline, whereas 3 of the 4 poorer responders showed a decrease. Interestingly, these 3 tumours showed elasticity values higher than responder tumours at day 0. Conclusions: Elastosonography appears a promising non-invasive new technique for the early prediction of HCC tumor response to sorafenib. Indeed, we proved that responder tumours are characterized by an early increase in elasticity. The possibility to distinguish a priori between responders and non responders based on the higher elasticity of the latter needs to be validated in ad-hoc experiments as well as a confirmation of our results in humans is warranted.
Resumo:
Mental retardation in Down syndrome (DS) has been imputed to the decreased brain volume, which is evident starting from the early phases of development. Recent studies in a widely used mouse model of DS, the Ts65Dn mouse, have shown that neurogenesis is severely impaired during the early phases of brain development, suggesting that this defect may be a major determinant of brain hypotrophy and mental retardation in individuals with DS. Recently, it has been found that in the cerebellum of Ts65Dn mice there is a defective responsiveness to Sonic Hedgehog (Shh), a potent mitogen that controls cell division during brain development, suggesting that failure of Shh signaling may underlie the reduced proliferation potency in DS. Based on these premises, we sought to identify the molecular mechanisms underlying derangement of the Shh pathway in neural precursor cells (NPCs) from Ts65Dn mice. We found that the expression levels of the Shh receptor Patched1 (Ptch1) were increased compared to controls both at the RNA and protein level. Partial silencing of Ptch1 expression in trisomic NPCs restored cell proliferation, indicating that proliferation impairment was due to Ptch1 overexpression. We further found that the overexpression of Ptch1 in trisomic NPCs is related to increased levels of AICD, a transcription-promoting fragment of amyloid precursor protein (APP). Increased AICD binding to the Ptch1 promoter favored its acetylated status, thus enhancing Ptch1 expression. Taken together, these data provide novel evidence that Ptch1 over expression underlies derangement of the Shh pathway in trisomic NPCs, with consequent proliferation impairment. The demonstration that Ptch1 over expression in trisomic NPCs is due to an APP fragment provides a link between this trisomic gene and the defective neuronal production that characterizes the DS brain.
Resumo:
Since the publication of the book of Russell and Burch in 1959, scientific research has never stopped improving itself with regard to the important issue of animal experimentation. The European Directive 2010/63/EU “On the protection of animals used for scientific purposes” focuses mainly on the animal welfare, fixing the Russell and Burch’s 3Rs principles as the foundations of the document. In particular, the legislator clearly states the responsibility of the scientific community to improve the number of alternative methods to animal experimentation. The swine is considered a species of relevant interest for translational research and medicine due to its biological similarities with humans. The surgical community has, in fact, recognized the swine as an excellent model replicating the human cardiovascular system. There have been several wild-type and transgenic porcine models which were produced for biomedicine and translational research. Among these, the cardiovascular ones are the most represented. The continuous involvement of the porcine animal model in the biomedical research, as the continuous advances achieved using swine in translational medicine, support the need for alternative methods to animal experimentation involving pigs. The main purpose of the present work was to develop and characterize novel porcine alternative methods for cardiovascular translational biology/medicine. The work was mainly based on two different models: the first consisted in an ex vivo culture of porcine aortic cylinders and the second consisted in an in vitro culture of porcine aortic derived progenitor cells. Both the models were properly characterized and results indicated that they could be useful to the study of vascular biology. Nevertheless, both the models aim to reduce the use of experimental animals and to refine animal based-trials. In conclusion, the present research aims to be a small, but significant, contribution to the important and necessary field of study of alternative methods to animal experimentation.
Resumo:
Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.
Resumo:
Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.
Resumo:
The physico-chemical characterization, structure-pharmacokinetic and metabolism studies of new semi synthetic analogues of natural bile acids (BAs) drug candidates have been performed. Recent studies discovered a role of BAs as agonists of FXR and TGR5 receptor, thus opening new therapeutic target for the treatment of liver diseases or metabolic disorders. Up to twenty new semisynthetic analogues have been synthesized and studied in order to find promising novel drugs candidates. In order to define the BAs structure-activity relationship, their main physico-chemical properties (solubility, detergency, lipophilicity and affinity with serum albumin) have been measured with validated analytical methodologies. Their metabolism and biodistribution has been studied in “bile fistula rat”, model where each BA is acutely administered through duodenal and femoral infusion and bile collected at different time interval allowing to define the relationship between structure and intestinal absorption and hepatic uptake ,metabolism and systemic spill-over. One of the studied analogues, 6α-ethyl-3α7α-dihydroxy-5β-cholanic acid, analogue of CDCA (INT 747, Obeticholic Acid (OCA)), recently under approval for the treatment of cholestatic liver diseases, requires additional studies to ensure its safety and lack of toxicity when administered to patients with a strong liver impairment. For this purpose, CCl4 inhalation to rat causing hepatic decompensation (cirrhosis) animal model has been developed and used to define the difference of OCA biodistribution in respect to control animals trying to define whether peripheral tissues might be also exposed as a result of toxic plasma levels of OCA, evaluating also the endogenous BAs biodistribution. An accurate and sensitive HPLC-ES-MS/MS method is developed to identify and quantify all BAs in biological matrices (bile, plasma, urine, liver, kidney, intestinal content and tissue) for which a sample pretreatment have been optimized.