Coastal flood vulnerability assessment with geomatic methods: Test sites of western Thailand, Sydney (Australia) and aeolian islands (south tyrrhenian sea, Italy)

The work undertaken in this PhD thesis is aimed at the development and testing of an innovative methodology for the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas to marine catastrophic inundation (tsunami). Different approaches are used at different spatial scales and are applied to three different study areas: 1. The entire western coast of Thailand 2. Two selected coastal suburbs of Sydney – Australia 3. The Aeolian Islands, in the South Tyrrhenian Sea – Italy I have discussed each of these cases study in at least one scientific paper: one paper about the Thailand case study (Dall’Osso et al., in review-b), three papers about the Sydney applications (Dall’Osso et al., 2009a; Dall’Osso et al., 2009b; Dall’Osso and Dominey-Howes, in review) and one last paper about the work at the Aeolian Islands (Dall’Osso et al., in review-a). These publications represent the core of the present PhD thesis. The main topics dealt with are outlined and discussed in a general introduction while the overall conclusions are outlined in the last section.

Mechanism of colonization in the Mediterranean-sea. Asperarca nodulosa: morphological and genetic analysis

Il mar Mediterraneo è un bacino acquifero peculiare per la recente colonizzazione di specie aliene, per l’evento geologico legato alla Crisi di salinità del Messiniano e per l’ampio range di salinità. L’individuazione dei meccanismi di colonizzazione si è incentrata sullo studio morfologico, istologico e molecolare delle specie Asperarca nodulosa ed Anadara demiri (Arcidae-Bivalvia-Mollusca). La ricerca si è basata sulla caratterizzazione morfologica, con utilizzo del microscopio elettronico a scansione, al fine di individuare il tipo di sviluppo larvale. Successivamente i dati rilevati al S.E.M. sono stati supportati dall’indagine istologica che ha evidenziato la presenza di gonadi a sessi distinti e la non incubazione larvale. L’ulteriore analisi filogenetica ha permesso di evidenziare la netta suddivisione tra le tre popolazioni studiate, indagine effettuata tramite marcatori arbitrari (RAPDs) e nucleari specifici (ITS). I risultati ottenuti trovano supporto da quanto noto su base morfologica. I dati, nel complesso, mostrano una perdita delle capacità di diffusione della specie tramite sviluppo larvale plantotrofico a favore di quello lecitotrofico o diretto; tale tesi è ulteriormente supportata dai dati molecolari che mostrano una netta separazione delle popolazioni prese in esame ed un conseguente isolamento tra individui appartenenti a zone di profondità del Mediterraneo (sub-bacini abissali). La ricerca ha, inoltre,esaminato i meccanismi di introduzione attuali nel bacino acquifero che è soggetto ad una nuova invasione da parte specie aliene dovuta all’apertura del canale di Suez. L’analisi si è focalizzata sullo studio per l’ individuazione dell’origine della specie aliena A. demiri , di presunta derivazione Indo-Pacifica, ma rivelatasi, nei dati preliminari, di origine Atlantica.

Ensemble forecasting in the Mediterranean sea

A new methodology is being devised for ensemble ocean forecasting using distributions of the surface wind field derived from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). The ocean members are forced with samples from the posterior distribution of the wind during the assimilation of satellite and in-situ ocean data. The initial condition perturbations are then consistent with the best available knowledge of the ocean state at the beginning of the forecast and amplify the ocean response to uncertainty only in the forcing. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) surface winds are also used to generate a reference ocean ensemble to evaluate the performance of the BHM method that proves to be eective in concentrating the forecast uncertainty at the ocean meso-scale. An height month experiment of weekly BHM ensemble forecasts was performed in the framework of the operational Mediterranean Forecasting System. The statistical properties of the ensemble are compared with model errors throughout the seasonal cycle proving the existence of a strong relationship between forecast uncertainties due to atmospheric forcing and the seasonal cycle.

Development of oil spill detection techniques for satellite optical sensors and their application to monitor oil spill discharge in Mediterranean sea

Satellite remote sensing has proved to be an effective support in timely detection and monitoring of marine oil pollution, mainly due to illegal ship discharges. In this context, we have developed a new methodology and technique for optical oil spill detection, which make use of MODIS L2 and MERIS L1B satellite top of atmosphere (TOA) reflectance imagery, for the first time in a highly automated way. The main idea was combining wide swaths and short revisit times of optical sensors with SAR observations, generally used in oil spill monitoring. This arises from the necessity to overcome the SAR reduced coverage and long revisit time of the monitoring area. This can be done now, given the MODIS and MERIS higher spatial resolution with respect to older sensors (250-300 m vs. 1 km), which consents the identification of smaller spills deriving from illicit discharge at sea. The procedure to obtain identifiable spills in optical reflectance images involves removal of oceanic and atmospheric natural variability, in order to enhance oil-water contrast; image clustering, which purpose is to segment the oil spill eventually presents in the image; finally, the application of a set of criteria for the elimination of those features which look like spills (look-alikes). The final result is a classification of oil spill candidate regions by means of a score based on the above criteria.

The stratigraphic record of the quaternary sea level fluctuations and the impact of the post-glacial sea level rise (Termination I) in the Adriatic basin (Mediterranean sea)

The modern stratigraphy of clastic continental margins is the result of the interaction between several geological processes acting on different time scales, among which sea level oscillations, sediment supply fluctuations and local tectonics are the main mechanisms. During the past three years my PhD was focused on understanding the impact of each of these process in the deposition of the central and northern Adriatic sedimentary successions, with the aim of reconstructing and quantifying the Late Quaternary eustatic fluctuations. In the last few decades, several Authors tried to quantify past eustatic fluctuations through the analysis of direct sea level indicators, among which drowned barrier-island deposits or coral reefs, or indirect methods, such as Oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) or modeling simulations. Sea level curves, obtained from direct sea level indicators, record a composite signal, formed by the contribution of the global eustatic change and regional factors, as tectonic processes or glacial-isostatic rebound effects: the eustatic signal has to be obtained by removing the contribution of these other mechanisms. To obtain the most realistic sea level reconstructions it is important to quantify the tectonic regime of the central Adriatic margin. This result has been achieved integrating a numerical approach with the analysis of high-resolution seismic profiles. In detail, the subsidence trend obtained from the geohistory analysis and the backstripping of the borehole PRAD1.2 (the borehole PRAD1.2 is a 71 m continuous borehole drilled in -185 m of water depth, south of the Mid Adriatic Deep - MAD - during the European Project PROMESS 1, Profile Across Mediterranean Sedimentary Systems, Part 1), has been confirmed by the analysis of lowstand paleoshorelines and by benthic foraminifera associations investigated through the borehole. This work showed an evolution from inner-shelf environment, during Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 10, to upper-slope conditions, during MIS 2. Once the tectonic regime of the central Adriatic margin has been constrained, it is possible to investigate the impact of sea level and sediment supply fluctuations on the deposition of the Late Pleistocene-Holocene transgressive deposits. The Adriatic transgressive record (TST - Transgressive Systems Tract) is formed by three correlative sedimentary bodies, deposited in less then 14 kyr since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM); in particular: along the central Adriatic shelf and in the adjacent slope basin the TST is formed by marine units, while along the northern Adriatic shelf the TST is represented by costal deposits in a backstepping configuration. The central Adriatic margin, characterized by a thick transgressive sedimentary succession, is the ideal site to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene climatic and eustatic fluctuations, among which Meltwater Pulses 1A and 1B and the Younger Dryas cold event. The central Adriatic TST is formed by a tripartite deposit bounded by two regional unconformities. In particular, the middle TST unit includes two prograding wedges, deposited in the interval between the two Meltwater Pulse events, as highlighted by several 14C age estimates, and likely recorded the Younger Dryas cold interval. Modeling simulations, obtained with the two coupled models HydroTrend 3.0 and 2D-Sedflux 1.0C (developed by the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System - CSDMS), integrated by the analysis of high resolution seismic profiles and core samples, indicate that: 1 - the prograding middle TST unit, deposited during the Younger Dryas, was formed as a consequence of an increase in sediment flux, likely connected to a decline in vegetation cover in the catchment area due to the establishment of sub glacial arid conditions; 2 - the two-stage prograding geometry was the consequence of a sea level still-stand (or possibly a fall) during the Younger Dryas event. The northern Adriatic margin, characterized by a broad and gentle shelf (350 km wide with a low angle plunge of 0.02° to the SE), is the ideal site to quantify the timing of each steps of the post LGM sea level rise. The modern shelf is characterized by sandy deposits of barrier-island systems in a backstepping configuration, showing younger ages at progressively shallower depths, which recorded the step-wise nature of the last sea level rise. The age-depth model, obtained by dated samples of basal peat layers, is in good agreement with previous published sea level curves, and highlights the post-glacial eustatic trend. The interval corresponding to the Younger Dyas cold reversal, instead, is more complex: two coeval coastal deposits characterize the northern Adriatic shelf at very different water depths. Several explanations and different models can be attempted to explain this conundrum, but the problem remains still unsolved.

Sea-Level climate variability in the Mediterranean Sea

Sea-level variability is characterized by multiple interacting factors described in the Fourth Assessment Report (Bindoff et al., 2007) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that act over wide spectra of temporal and spatial scales. In Church et al. (2010) sea-level variability and changes are defined as manifestations of climate variability and change. The European Environmental Agency (EEA) defines sea level as one of most important indicators for monitoring climate change, as it integrates the response of different components of the Earths system and is also affected by anthropogenic contributions (EEA, 2011). The balance between the different sea-level contributions represents an important source of uncertainty, involving stochastic processes that are very difficult to describe and understand in detail, to the point that they are defined as an enigma in Munk (2002). Sea-level rate estimates are affected by all these uncertainties, in particular if we look at possible responses to sea-level contributions to future climate. At the regional scale, lateral fluxes also contribute to sea-level variability, adding complexity to sea-level dynamics. The research strategy adopted in this work to approach such an interesting and challenging topic has been to develop an objective methodology to study sea-level variability at different temporal and spatial scales, applicable in each part of the Mediterranean basin in particular, and in the global ocean in general, using all the best calibrated sources of data (for the Mediterranean): in-situ, remote-sensig and numerical models data. The global objective of this work was to achieve a deep understanding of all of the components of the sea-level signal contributing to sea-level variability, tendency and trend and to quantify them.

Demersal communities in the Mediterranean Sea: a case study of Triglidae (Osteichthyes, Scorpaeniformes) on the conservation and sustainable use of marine resources

An appropriate management of fisheries resources can only be achieved with the continuous supply of information on the structure and biology of populations, in order to predict the temporal fluctuations. This study supports the importance of investigating the bio-ecology of increasingly exploited and poorly known species, such as gurnards (Osteichthyes, Triglidae) from Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean), to quantify their ecological role into marine community. It also focuses on investigate inter and intra-specific structuring factor of Adriatic population. These objectives were achieved by: 1) investigating aspects of the population dynamics; 2) studying the feeding biology through the examination of stomach contents; 3) using sagittal otoliths as potential marker of species life cycle; 4) getting preliminary data on mDNA phylogeny. Gurnards showed a specie-specific “critical size” coinciding with the start of sexual maturity, the tendency to migrate to greater depths, a change of diet from crustaceans to fish and an increase of variety of food items eaten. Distribution of prey items, predator size range and depth distribution were the main dimensions that influence the breadth of trophic niche and the relative difference amongst Adriatic gurnards. Several feeding preferences were individuated and a possible impact among bigger-size gurnards and other commercial fishes (anchovy, gadoids) and Crustacea (such as mantis prawn and shrimps) were to be necessary considered. Otolith studies showed that gurnard species have a very fast growth despite other results in other areas; intra-specific differences and the increase in the variability of otolith shape, sulcus acusticus shape, S:O ratios, sulcus acusticus external crystals arrangement were shown between juveniles and adults and were linked to growth (individual genetic factors) and to environmental conditions (e.g. depth and trophic niche distribution). In order to facilitate correct biological interpretation of data, molecular data were obtained for comparing morphological distance to genetic ones.

Struttura di popolazione in gamberi aristeidi (Decapoda, Aristeidae) nel Mediterraneo occidentale mediante l'utilizzo di loci microsatelliti

Il lavoro svolto durante il dottorato di ricerca ha permesso lo sviluppo e la verifica della attendibilità di marcatori molecolari neutrali (loci microsatelliti) specifici per Aristeus antennatus. Tali marcatori sono stati poi utilizzati per studiare la struttura genetica di popolazione della specie del Mediterraneo occidentale e i risultati ottenuti sono stati confrontati con quelli di un progetto di ricerca parallelo su Aristeaomorpha foliacea, analizzando differenze ed analogie fra le due specie. I risultati delle analisi su Aristeus antennatus hanno evidenziato una completa assenza di struttura di popolazione e come i due sessi contribuiscano in modo diverso al flusso genico. La specie infatti presenta un sex-ratio a favore dei maschi oltre gli 800m, mentre tale rappoorto è a favore delle femmine in strati più superficiali, dove sono probabilmente soggette a condizioni oceanografiche più dispersive. Tramite test genetici appropriati è stato possibile valutare indirettamente il grado di dospersione dei sessi dimostrando che nell'area analizzati i maschi erano rappresentati maggiormente da individui stanziali, mentre gli individui di sesso femminile erano migranti. Le femmine appaiono pertanto giocare un ruolo preminente rispetto ai maschi nel determinare l'entità del flusso genico. Il confronto dei risultati ottenuti in Aristeus antennatus con quelli di Aristaeomorpha foliacea ha evidenziato la relazione fra alta capacità dispersiva, sia allo stato larvale che adulto, e completo rimescolamento genetico nei gamberi aristeidi nel Mediterraneo occidentale anche se in quest'ultima specie non ci sono evidenze di dispersione genetica mediata dal sesso. E' pertanto di forte interesse (dato anche il valore economico di questi organismi) come una struttura di popolazione qualitativamente e quantitavamente comporabile venga raggiunta con dinamiche di popolazione molto diverse.

Effects of temperature and acidity on Mediterranean benthic calcifiers, in the face of globale climate change

The Mediterranean Sea is expected to react faster to global change compared to the ocean and is already showing more pronounced warming and acidification rates. A study performed along the Italian western coast showed that porosity of the skeleton increases with temperature in the zooxanthellate (i.e. symbiotic with unicellular algae named zooxanthellae) solitary scleractinian Balanophyllia europaea while it does not vary with temperature in the solitary non-zooxanthellate Leptopsammia pruvoti. These results were confirmed by another study that indicated that the increase in porosity was accompanied by an increase of the fraction of the largest pores in the pore-space, perhaps due to an inhibition of the photosynthetic process at elevated temperatures, causing an attenuation of calcification. B. europaea, L. pruvoti and the colonial non-zooxanthellate Astroides calycularis, transplanted along a natural pH gradient, showed that high temperature exacerbated the negative effect of lowered pH on their mortality rates. The growth of the zooxanthellate species did not react to reduced pH, while the growth of the two non-zooxanthellate species was negatively affected. Reduced abundance of naturally occurring B. europaea, a mollusk, a calcifying and a non-calcifying macroalgae were observed along the gradient while no variation was seen in the abundance of a calcifying green alga. With decreasing pH, the mineralogy of the coral and mollusk did not change, while the two calcifying algae decreased the content of aragonite in favor of the less soluble calcium sulphates and whewellite (calcium oxalate), possibly as a mechanism of phenotypic plasticity. Increased values of porosity and macroporosity with CO2 were observed in B. europaea specimens, indicating reduces the resistance of its skeletons to mechanical stresses with increasing acidity. These findings, added to the negative effect of temperature on various biological parameters, generate concern on the sensitivity of this zooxanthellate species to the envisaged global climate change scenarios.