Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

An equilibrium approach to modelling social interaction

The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.

Bioengineering of exercise: biomechanical and metabolic aspects

The field of research of this dissertation concerns the bioengineering of exercise, in particular the relationship between biomechanical and metabolic knowledge. This relationship can allow to evaluate exercise in many different circumstances: optimizing athlete performance, understanding and helping compensation in prosthetic patients and prescribing exercise with high caloric consumption and minimal joint loading to obese subjects. Furthermore, it can have technical application in fitness and rehabilitation machine design, predicting energy consumption and joint loads for the subjects who will use the machine. The aim of this dissertation was to further understand how mechanical work and metabolic energy cost are related during movement using interpretative models. Musculoskeletal models, when including muscle energy expenditure description, can be useful to address this issue, allowing to evaluate human movement in terms of both mechanical and metabolic energy expenditure. A whole body muscle-skeletal model that could describe both biomechanical and metabolic aspects during movement was identified in literature and then was applied and validated using an EMG-driven approach. The advantage of using EMG driven approach was to avoid the use of arbitrary defined optimization functions to solve the indeterminate problem of muscle activations. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to know how much changes in model parameters could affect model outputs: the results showed that changing parameters in between physiological ranges did not influence model outputs largely. In order to evaluate its predicting capacity, the musculoskeletal model was applied to experimental data: first the model was applied in a simple exercise (unilateral leg press exercise) and then in a more complete exercise (elliptical exercise). In these studies, energy consumption predicted by the model resulted to be close to energy consumption estimated by indirect calorimetry for different intensity levels at low frequencies of movement. The use of muscle skeletal models for predicting energy consumption resulted to be promising and the use of EMG driven approach permitted to avoid the introduction of optimization functions. Even though many aspects of this approach have still to be investigated and these results are preliminary, the conclusions of this dissertation suggest that musculoskeletal modelling can be a useful tool for addressing issues about efficiency of movement in healthy and pathologic subjects.

Dalle feste di nozze alle orchestre di stato: Maria Lătărețu e l'invenzione della muzică populară

Le musiche “popolaresche” urbane, in genere trascurate nella letteratura etnomusicologica, sono state quasi completamente ignorate nel caso della Romania. Il presente studio si propone di colmare almeno in parte questa lacuna, indagando questo fenomeno musicale nella Bucarest degli anni Trenta e Quaranta del Novecento. Le musiche esaminate sono tuttavia inserite entro una cornice storica più ampia, che data a partire dalla fine del XVIII secolo, e messe in relazione con alcune produzioni di origine rurale che con queste hanno uno stretto rapporto. Il caso di Maria Lătărețu (1911-1972) si è rivelato particolarmente fecondo in questo senso, dal momento che la cantante apparteneva ad entrambi i versanti musicali, rurale e urbano, e nepadroneggiava con disinvoltura i rispettivi repertori. Dopo il suo trasferimento nella capitale, negli anni Trenta, è diventata una delle figure di maggior spicco di quel fenomeno noto come muzică populară (creazione musicale eminentemente urbana e borghese con radici però nel mondo delle musiche rurali). L’analisi del repertorio (o, per meglio dire, dei due repertori) della Lătărețu, anche nel confronto con repertori limitrofi, ha permesso di comprendere più da vicino alcuni dei meccanismi musicali alla base di questa creazione. Un genere musicale che non nasce dal nulla nel dopo-guerra, ma piuttosto continua una tradizione di musica urbana, caratterizzata in senso locale, ma influenzata dal modello della canzone europea occidentale, che data almeno dagli inizi del Novecento. Attraverso procedimenti in parte già collaudati da compositori colti che sin dal XIX secolo, in Romania come altrove, si erano cimentati con la creazione di melodie in stile popolare o nell’armonizzazione di musiche di provenienza contadina, le melodie rurali nel bagaglio della cantante venivano trasformate in qualcosa di inedito. Una trasformazione che, come viene dimostrato efficacemente nell’ultimo capitolo, non investe solo il livello superficiale, ma coinvolge in modo profondo la sintassi musicale.

The gaseous halo of the Milky Way

In the last decade, sensitive observations have revealed that disc galaxies are surrounded by multiphase gaseous halos produced by the circulation of gas from the discs to the environment and vice-versa. This Thesis is a study of the gaseous halo of the Milky Way carried out via the modelling of the HI emission and the available absorption-line data. We fitted simple kinematical models to the HI LAB Survey and found that the Galaxy has a massive (~3x10^8 Mo) HI halo extending a few kiloparsecs above the plane. This layer rotates more slowly than the disc and shows a global inflow motion, a kinematics similar to that observed in the HI halos of nearby galaxies. We built a dynamical model of the galactic fountain to reproduce the properties of this layer. In this model, fountain clouds are ejected from the disc by SN feedback and - as suggested by hydrodynamical simulations - triggers the cooling of coronal gas, which is entrained by the cloud wakes and accretes onto the disc when the clouds fall back. For a proper choice of the parameters, the model reproduces well the HI data and predicts an accretion of coronal gas onto the disc at a rate of 2 Mo/yr. We extended this model to the warm-hot component of the halo, showing that most of the ion absorption features observed towards background sources are consistent with being produced in the turbulent wakes that lag behind the fountain clouds. Specifically, the column densities, positions, and velocities of the absorbers are well reproduced by our model. Finally, we studied the gas content of galaxies extracted from a cosmological N-body+SPH simulation, and found that an HI halo with the forementioned properties is not observed, probably due ti the relatively low resolution of the simulations.

When the Practice of Theorizing Meets the Theorizing of Practice. Social Knowledge Making in Organization Science Academia and Managerial Communities

The aim of the present work is to contribute to a better understanding of the relation between organization theory and management practice. It is organized as a collection of two papers, a theoretical and conceptual contribution and an ethnographic study. The first paper is concerned with systematizing different literatures inside and outside the field of organization studies that deal with the theory-practice relation. After identifying a series of positions to the theory-practice debate and unfolding some of their implicit assumptions and limitations, a new position called entwinement is developed in order to overcome status quo through reconciliation and integration. Accordingly, the paper proposes to reconceptualize theory and practice as a circular iterative process of action and cognition, science and common-sense enacted in the real world both by organization scholars and practitioners according to purposes at hand. The second paper is the ethnographic study of an encounter between two groups of expert academics and practitioners occasioned by a one-year executive business master in an international business school. The research articulates a process view of the knowledge exchange between management academics and practitioners in particular and between individuals belonging to different communities of practice, in general, and emphasizes its dynamic, relational and transformative mechanisms. Findings show that when they are given the chance to interact, academics and practitioners set up local provisional relations that enable them to act as change intermediaries vis-a-vis each other’s worlds, without tying themselves irremediably to each other and to the scenarios they conjointly projected during the master’s experience. Finally, the study shows that provisional relations were accompanied by a recursive shift in knowledge modes. While interacting, academics passed from theory to practical theorizing, practitioners passed from an involved practical mode to a reflexive and quasi-theoretical one, and then, as exchanges proceeded, the other way around.

Correlation between insulin resistance and treatment-resistant acne

Physiologically during puberty and adolescence, when juvenile acne usually appears, the response to a glucose load is increased if compared to the one observed in adult and at pre-pubertal age, while insulin sensitivity is reduced. Insulin is a hormone that acts at different levels along the axis which controls the sex hormones. It increases the release of LH and FSH by pituitary gland, stimulates the synthesis of androgens in the gonads and stimulates the synthesis of androgenic precursors in adrenal glands. Finally, it acts in the liver by inhibiting the synthesis of Sex Hormone Binding Globulin (SHBG). Insulin is also able to act directly on the production of sebum and amplify the effects of Iinsulin Growth Factor-1 in the skin, inhibiting the synthesis of its binding protein (IGF Binding Protein-1). In female subjects with acne and Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) insulin resistance is a well known pathogenetic factor, while the relationship between acne and insulin resistance has been poorly investigated in males so far. The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between insulin resistance and acne in young males who do not respond to common therapies. Clinical and biochemical parameters of glucose, lipid metabolism, androgens and IGF-1 were evaluated. Insulin resistance was estimated by Homeostasis Model assessment (HOMA-IR) and Oral Glucose Tolerance Test was also performed. We found that subjects with acne had higher Sistolic and Diastolic Blood Pressure, Waist/Hip Ratio, Waist Circumference, 120' OGTT serum insulin and serum IGF-1 and lower HDL-cholesterol than subjects of comparable age and gender without acne. The results thus obtained confirmed what other authors have recently reported about a metabolic imbalance in young males with acne. Furthermore, these results support the hypothesis that insulin resistance might play an important role in the pathogenesis of treatment-resistant acne in males.

Integrated analysis and design of optimization and up-scaling of inductively coupled plasma synthesis of nanoparticles

This study is focused on radio-frequency inductively coupled thermal plasma (ICP) synthesis of nanoparticles, combining experimental and modelling approaches towards process optimization and industrial scale-up, in the framework of the FP7-NMP SIMBA European project (Scaling-up of ICP technology for continuous production of Metallic nanopowders for Battery Applications). First the state of the art of nanoparticle production through conventional and plasma routes is summarized, then results for the characterization of the plasma source and on the investigation of the nanoparticle synthesis phenomenon, aiming at highlighting fundamental process parameters while adopting a design oriented modelling approach, are presented. In particular, an energy balance of the torch and of the reaction chamber, employing a calorimetric method, is presented, while results for three- and two-dimensional modelling of an ICP system are compared with calorimetric and enthalpy probe measurements to validate the temperature field predicted by the model and used to characterize the ICP system under powder-free conditions. Moreover, results from the modeling of critical phases of ICP synthesis process, such as precursor evaporation, vapour conversion in nanoparticles and nanoparticle growth, are presented, with the aim of providing useful insights both for the design and optimization of the process and on the underlying physical phenomena. Indeed, precursor evaporation, one of the phases holding the highest impact on industrial feasibility of the process, is discussed; by employing models to describe particle trajectories and thermal histories, adapted from the ones originally developed for other plasma technologies or applications, such as DC non-transferred arc torches and powder spherodization, the evaporation of micro-sized Si solid precursor in a laboratory scale ICP system is investigated. Finally, a discussion on the role of thermo-fluid dynamic fields on nano-particle formation is presented, as well as a study on the effect of the reaction chamber geometry on produced nanoparticle characteristics and process yield.

Studio di fase I sulla reinfusione intraepatica di cellule staminali CD 133+ altamente purificate nei pazienti con malattia epatica terminale

Numerose evidenze sperimentali hanno dimostrato il contributo delle cellule staminali di derivazione midollare nei processi di rigenerazione epatica dopo danno tissutale. E’ cresciuto pertanto l’interesse sul loro potenziale impiego in pazienti con cirrosi. Questo studio si propone di valutare la fattibilità e la sicurezza della reinfusione intraepatica di cellule staminali midollari autologhe CD133+ in 12 pazienti con insufficienza epatica terminale definita da un punteggio di Model for End Stage of Liver Disease (MELD) compreso tra 17 e 25. L’efficacia in termini di funzionalità epatica rappresenta un obiettivo secondario. Previa mobilizzazione nel sangue periferico mediante somministrazione di granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) alla dose di 7,5 mcg/Kg/b.i.d. e raccolta per leucoaferesi, le cellule CD133+ altamente purificate vengono reinfuse in arteria epatica a partire da 5x104/Kg fino a 1x106/kg. Nei tre giorni successivi si somministra G-CSF per favorire l’espansione e l’attecchimento delle cellule. Durante la mobilizzazione, la reinfusione e nei 12 mesi successivi i pazienti sono sottoposti a periodici controlli clinici, laboratoristici e strumentali e ad attenta valutazione di effetti collaterali. Lo studio è tuttora in corso e ad oggi, 11 pazienti sono stati sottoposti a reinfusione e 4 hanno completato i 12 mesi di follow-up. Il G-CSF è stato ben tollerato e ha consentito di ottenere una buona espansione cellulare. Dopo la reinfusione sono stati documentati un ematoma inguinale e due episodi transitori di encefalopatia portosistemica. Durante il follow-up 4 pazienti sono stati trapiantati e 2 sono morti. Non è stata osservata alcuna modificazione significativa degli indici di funzione epatica. Questi risultati preliminari confermano la possibilità di mobilizzare e reinfondere un numero adeguato di cellule staminali di derivazione midollare in pazienti con malattia epatica in stadio terminale.

Mandeville e l'uomorismo del male minore

Questa ricerca propone una lettura comparata degli scritti di Bernard Mandeville. L'intento è di porre in relazione gli argomenti morali, etici e politici con le "gandi voci" dell'epoca: primi fra tutti Hobbes e Locke. L'impianto interpretativo è strutturato in modo da delineare il metodo adottato nelle riflessioni filosofiche mandevilliane e da qui, mantenendo una divisione di piani, rintracciare i concetti di riferimento sia dal punto di vista metafico sia da quello ontologico. Si ritiene, allora, che il metodo basato sull'uomorismo, come forma oggettivante del fenomeno – sociale e non – porti alla definizione della nozione di natura umana a partire da una conzione di natura in sé corrotta metafisicamente. Ciò trova nel paradigma di "naturalismo fisiologico" un riferimento da cui muovere l'analisi antropologica e morale degli uomini in società. Un'indagine che rintraccia nell'"etica del male minore" un modello con cui valutare le scelte e le azioni in ambito collettivo e pubblico. La lettura dei vari testi, allora, mostra come la politica sia influenzata da questo modello nello strutturare istituzioni che stimolino la produzione e l'incremento della ricchezza, seppur questo non sia alla portata di tutti. La sperequazione economica, allora, a fronte di un benessere collettivo elevato appare come un "male minore".