Analysis of heat-related phenomena and their interactions at different spatio-temporal scales

This thesis analyzes the impact of heat extremes in urban and rural environments, considering processes related to severely high temperatures and unusual dryness. The first part deals with the influence of large-scale heatwave events on the local-scale urban heat island (UHI) effect. The temperatures recorded over a 20-year summer period by meteorological stations in 37 European cities are examined to evaluate the variations of UHI during heatwaves with respect to non-heatwave days. A statistical analysis reveals a negligible impact of large-scale extreme temperatures on the local daytime urban climate, while a notable exacerbation of UHI effect at night. A comparison with the UrbClim model outputs confirms the UHI strengthening during heatwave episodes, with an intensity independent of the climate zone. The investigation of the relationship between large-scale temperature anomalies and UHI highlights a smooth and continuous dependence, but with a strong variability. The lack of a threshold behavior in this relationship suggests that large-scale temperature variability can affect the local-scale UHI even in different conditions than during extreme events. The second part examines the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought, being the first stage of the drought propagation process. A multi-year reanalysis dataset involving numerous drought events over the Iberian Peninsula is considered. The behavior of different non-parametric standardized drought indices in drought detection is evaluated. A statistical approach based on run theory is employed, analyzing the main characteristics of drought propagation. The propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought events is found to develop in about 1-2 months. The duration of agricultural drought appears shorter than that of meteorological drought, but the onset is delayed. The propagation probability increases with the severity of the originating meteorological drought. A new combined agricultural drought index is developed to be a useful tool for balancing the characteristics of other adopted indices.

Automatic code generation: from process algebraic architectural descriptions to multithreaded java programs

Process algebraic architectural description languages provide a formal means for modeling software systems and assessing their properties. In order to bridge the gap between system modeling and system im- plementation, in this thesis an approach is proposed for automatically generating multithreaded object-oriented code from process algebraic architectural descriptions, in a way that preserves – under certain assumptions – the properties proved at the architectural level. The approach is divided into three phases, which are illustrated by means of a running example based on an audio processing system. First, we develop an architecture-driven technique for thread coordination management, which is completely automated through a suitable package. Second, we address the translation of the algebraically-specified behavior of the individual software units into thread templates, which will have to be filled in by the software developer according to certain guidelines. Third, we discuss performance issues related to the suitability of synthesizing monitors rather than threads from software unit descriptions that satisfy specific constraints. In addition to the running example, we present two case studies about a video animation repainting system and the implementation of a leader election algorithm, in order to summarize the whole approach. The outcome of this thesis is the implementation of the proposed approach in a translator called PADL2Java and its integration in the architecture-centric verification tool TwoTowers.

Troposphere Calibration Techniques for Deep Space Probe Tracking

Ground-based Earth troposphere calibration systems play an important role in planetary exploration, especially to carry out radio science experiments aimed at the estimation of planetary gravity fields. In these experiments, the main observable is the spacecraft (S/C) range rate, measured from the Doppler shift of an electromagnetic wave transmitted from ground, received by the spacecraft and coherently retransmitted back to ground. If the solar corona and interplanetary plasma noise is already removed from Doppler data, the Earth troposphere remains one of the main error sources in tracking observables. Current Earth media calibration systems at NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN) stations are based upon a combination of weather data and multidirectional, dual frequency GPS measurements acquired at each station complex. In order to support Cassini’s cruise radio science experiments, a new generation of media calibration systems were developed, driven by the need to achieve the goal of an end-to-end Allan deviation of the radio link in the order of 3×〖10〗^(-15) at 1000 s integration time. The future ESA’s Bepi Colombo mission to Mercury carries scientific instrumentation for radio science experiments (a Ka-band transponder and a three-axis accelerometer) which, in combination with the S/C telecommunication system (a X/X/Ka transponder) will provide the most advanced tracking system ever flown on an interplanetary probe. Current error budget for MORE (Mercury Orbiter Radioscience Experiment) allows the residual uncalibrated troposphere to contribute with a value of 8×〖10〗^(-15) to the two-way Allan deviation at 1000 s integration time. The current standard ESA/ESTRACK calibration system is based on a combination of surface meteorological measurements and mathematical algorithms, capable to reconstruct the Earth troposphere path delay, leaving an uncalibrated component of about 1-2% of the total delay. In order to satisfy the stringent MORE requirements, the short time-scale variations of the Earth troposphere water vapor content must be calibrated at ESA deep space antennas (DSA) with more precise and stable instruments (microwave radiometers). In parallel to this high performance instruments, ESA ground stations should be upgraded to media calibration systems at least capable to calibrate both troposphere path delay components (dry and wet) at sub-centimetre level, in order to reduce S/C navigation uncertainties. The natural choice is to provide a continuous troposphere calibration by processing GNSS data acquired at each complex by dual frequency receivers already installed for station location purposes. The work presented here outlines the troposphere calibration technique to support both Deep Space probe navigation and radio science experiments. After an introduction to deep space tracking techniques, observables and error sources, in Chapter 2 the troposphere path delay is widely investigated, reporting the estimation techniques and the state of the art of the ESA and NASA troposphere calibrations. Chapter 3 deals with an analysis of the status and the performances of the NASA Advanced Media Calibration (AMC) system referred to the Cassini data analysis. Chapter 4 describes the current release of a developed GNSS software (S/W) to estimate the troposphere calibration to be used for ESA S/C navigation purposes. During the development phase of the S/W a test campaign has been undertaken in order to evaluate the S/W performances. A description of the campaign and the main results are reported in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 presents a preliminary analysis of microwave radiometers to be used to support radio science experiments. The analysis has been carried out considering radiometric measurements of the ESA/ESTEC instruments installed in Cabauw (NL) and compared with the requirements of MORE. Finally, Chapter 7 summarizes the results obtained and defines some key technical aspects to be evaluated and taken into account for the development phase of future instrumentation.

Calcolo della posizione di reti di stazioni permanenti

Con il trascorrere del tempo, le reti di stazioni permanenti GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) divengono sempre più un valido supporto alle tecniche di rilevamento satellitare. Esse sono al tempo stesso un’efficace materializzazione del sistema di riferimento e un utile ausilio ad applicazioni di rilevamento topografico e di monitoraggio per il controllo di deformazioni. Alle ormai classiche applicazioni statiche in post-processamento, si affiancano le misure in tempo reale sempre più utilizzate e richieste dall’utenza professionale. In tutti i casi risulta molto importante la determinazione di coordinate precise per le stazioni permanenti, al punto che si è deciso di effettuarla tramite differenti ambienti di calcolo. Sono stati confrontati il Bernese, il Gamit (che condividono l’approccio differenziato) e il Gipsy (che utilizza l’approccio indifferenziato). L’uso di tre software ha reso indispensabile l’individuazione di una strategia di calcolo comune in grado di garantire che, i dati ancillari e i parametri fisici adottati, non costituiscano fonte di diversificazione tra le soluzioni ottenute. L’analisi di reti di dimensioni nazionali oppure di reti locali per lunghi intervalli di tempo, comporta il processamento di migliaia se non decine di migliaia di file; a ciò si aggiunge che, talora a causa di banali errori, oppure al fine di elaborare test scientifici, spesso risulta necessario reiterare le elaborazioni. Molte risorse sono quindi state investite nella messa a punto di procedure automatiche finalizzate, da un lato alla preparazione degli archivi e dall’altro all’analisi dei risultati e al loro confronto qualora si sia in possesso di più soluzioni. Dette procedure sono state sviluppate elaborando i dataset più significativi messi a disposizione del DISTART (Dipartimento di Ingegneria delle Strutture, dei Trasporti, delle Acque, del Rilevamento del Territorio - Università di Bologna). E’ stato così possibile, al tempo stesso, calcolare la posizione delle stazioni permanenti di alcune importanti reti locali e nazionali e confrontare taluni fra i più importanti codici scientifici che assolvono a tale funzione. Per quanto attiene il confronto fra i diversi software si è verificato che: • le soluzioni ottenute dal Bernese e da Gamit (i due software differenziati) sono sempre in perfetto accordo; • le soluzioni Gipsy (che utilizza il metodo indifferenziato) risultano, quasi sempre, leggermente più disperse rispetto a quelle degli altri software e mostrano talvolta delle apprezzabili differenze numeriche rispetto alle altre soluzioni, soprattutto per quanto attiene la coordinata Est; le differenze sono però contenute in pochi millimetri e le rette che descrivono i trend sono comunque praticamente parallele a quelle degli altri due codici; • il citato bias in Est tra Gipsy e le soluzioni differenziate, è più evidente in presenza di determinate combinazioni Antenna/Radome e sembra essere legato all’uso delle calibrazioni assolute da parte dei diversi software. E’ necessario altresì considerare che Gipsy è sensibilmente più veloce dei codici differenziati e soprattutto che, con la procedura indifferenziata, il file di ciascuna stazione di ciascun giorno, viene elaborato indipendentemente dagli altri, con evidente maggior elasticità di gestione: se si individua un errore strumentale su di una singola stazione o se si decide di aggiungere o togliere una stazione dalla rete, non risulta necessario il ricalcolo dell’intera rete. Insieme alle altre reti è stato possibile analizzare la Rete Dinamica Nazionale (RDN), non solo i 28 giorni che hanno dato luogo alla sua prima definizione, bensì anche ulteriori quattro intervalli temporali di 28 giorni, intercalati di sei mesi e che coprono quindi un intervallo temporale complessivo pari a due anni. Si è così potuto verificare che la RDN può essere utilizzata per l’inserimento in ITRF05 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame) di una qualsiasi rete regionale italiana nonostante l’intervallo temporale ancora limitato. Da un lato sono state stimate le velocità ITRF (puramente indicative e non ufficiali) delle stazioni RDN e, dall’altro, è stata effettuata una prova di inquadramento di una rete regionale in ITRF, tramite RDN, e si è verificato che non si hanno differenze apprezzabili rispetto all’inquadramento in ITRF, tramite un congruo numero di stazioni IGS/EUREF (International GNSS Service / European REference Frame, SubCommission for Europe dello International Association of Geodesy).

Fingerprint Recognition: Enhancement, Feature Extraction and Automatic Evaluation of Algorithms

The identification of people by measuring some traits of individual anatomy or physiology has led to a specific research area called biometric recognition. This thesis is focused on improving fingerprint recognition systems considering three important problems: fingerprint enhancement, fingerprint orientation extraction and automatic evaluation of fingerprint algorithms. An effective extraction of salient fingerprint features depends on the quality of the input fingerprint. If the fingerprint is very noisy, we are not able to detect a reliable set of features. A new fingerprint enhancement method, which is both iterative and contextual, is proposed. This approach detects high-quality regions in fingerprints, selectively applies contextual filtering and iteratively expands like wildfire toward low-quality ones. A precise estimation of the orientation field would greatly simplify the estimation of other fingerprint features (singular points, minutiae) and improve the performance of a fingerprint recognition system. The fingerprint orientation extraction is improved following two directions. First, after the introduction of a new taxonomy of fingerprint orientation extraction methods, several variants of baseline methods are implemented and, pointing out the role of pre- and post- processing, we show how to improve the extraction. Second, the introduction of a new hybrid orientation extraction method, which follows an adaptive scheme, allows to improve significantly the orientation extraction in noisy fingerprints. Scientific papers typically propose recognition systems that integrate many modules and therefore an automatic evaluation of fingerprint algorithms is needed to isolate the contributions that determine an actual progress in the state-of-the-art. The lack of a publicly available framework to compare fingerprint orientation extraction algorithms, motivates the introduction of a new benchmark area called FOE (including fingerprints and manually-marked orientation ground-truth) along with fingerprint matching benchmarks in the FVC-onGoing framework. The success of such framework is discussed by providing relevant statistics: more than 1450 algorithms submitted and two international competitions.

Optical Design for Automatic Identification and Portable Systems

This thesis proposes design methods and test tools, for optical systems, which may be used in an industrial environment, where not only precision and reliability but also ease of use is important. The approach to the problem has been conceived to be as general as possible, although in the present work, the design of a portable device for automatic identification applications has been studied, because this doctorate has been funded by Datalogic Scanning Group s.r.l., a world-class producer of barcode readers. The main functional components of the complete device are: electro-optical imaging, illumination and pattern generator systems. For what concerns the electro-optical imaging system, a characterization tool and an analysis one has been developed to check if the desired performance of the system has been achieved. Moreover, two design tools for optimizing the imaging system have been implemented. The first optimizes just the core of the system, the optical part, improving its performance ignoring all other contributions and generating a good starting point for the optimization of the whole complex system. The second tool optimizes the system taking into account its behavior with a model as near as possible to reality including optics, electronics and detection. For what concerns the illumination and the pattern generator systems, two tools have been implemented. The first allows the design of free-form lenses described by an arbitrary analytical function exited by an incoherent source and is able to provide custom illumination conditions for all kind of applications. The second tool consists of a new method to design Diffractive Optical Elements excited by a coherent source for large pattern angles using the Iterative Fourier Transform Algorithm. Validation of the design tools has been obtained, whenever possible, comparing the performance of the designed systems with those of fabricated prototypes. In other cases simulations have been used.

Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Automatic Deployment of Applications in the Cloud

In distributed systems like clouds or service oriented frameworks, applications are typically assembled by deploying and connecting a large number of heterogeneous software components, spanning from fine-grained packages to coarse-grained complex services. The complexity of such systems requires a rich set of techniques and tools to support the automation of their deployment process. By relying on a formal model of components, a technique is devised for computing the sequence of actions allowing the deployment of a desired configuration. An efficient algorithm, working in polynomial time, is described and proven to be sound and complete. Finally, a prototype tool implementing the proposed algorithm has been developed. Experimental results support the adoption of this novel approach in real life scenarios.

The language of others mirrored in thy face: The role of political affiliation in automatic facial effects of language

People tend to automatically mimic facial expressions of others. If clear evidence exists on the effect of non-verbal behavior (emotion faces) on automatic facial mimicry, little is known about the role of verbal behavior (emotion language) in triggering such effects. Whereas it is well-established that political affiliation modulates facial mimicry, no evidence exists on whether this modulation passes also through verbal means. This research addressed the role of verbal behavior in triggering automatic facial effects depending on whether verbal stimuli are attributed to leaders of different political parties. Study 1 investigated the role of interpersonal verbs, referring to positive and negative emotion expressions and encoding them at different levels of abstraction, in triggering corresponding facial muscle activation in a reader. Study 2 examined the role of verbs expressing positive and negative emotional behaviors of political leaders in modulating automatic facial effects depending on the matched or mismatched political affiliation of participants and politicians of left-and right-wing. Study 3 examined whether verbs expressing happiness displays of ingroup politicians induce a more sincere smile (Duchenne) pattern among readers of same political affiliation relative to happiness expressions of outgroup politicians. Results showed that verbs encoding facial actions at different levels of abstraction elicited differential facial muscle activity (Study 1). Furthermore, political affiliation significantly modulated facial activation triggered by emotion verbs as participants showed more congruent and enhanced facial activity towards ingroup politicians’ smiles and frowns compared to those of outgroup politicians (Study 2). Participants facially responded with a more sincere smile pattern towards verbs expressing smiles of ingroup compared to outgroup politicians (Study 3). Altogether, results showed that the role of political affiliation in modulating automatic facial effects passes also through verbal channels and is revealed at a fine-grained level by inducing quantitative and qualitative differences in automatic facial reactions of readers.

Automatic risk evaluation in elderly patients based on Autonomic Nervous System assessment

Dysfunction of Autonomic Nervous System (ANS) is a typical feature of chronic heart failure and other cardiovascular disease. As a simple non-invasive technology, heart rate variability (HRV) analysis provides reliable information on autonomic modulation of heart rate. The aim of this thesis was to research and develop automatic methods based on ANS assessment for evaluation of risk in cardiac patients. Several features selection and machine learning algorithms have been combined to achieve the goals. Automatic assessment of disease severity in Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) patients: a completely automatic method, based on long-term HRV was proposed in order to automatically assess the severity of CHF, achieving a sensitivity rate of 93% and a specificity rate of 64% in discriminating severe versus mild patients. Automatic identification of hypertensive patients at high risk of vascular events: a completely automatic system was proposed in order to identify hypertensive patients at higher risk to develop vascular events in the 12 months following the electrocardiographic recordings, achieving a sensitivity rate of 71% and a specificity rate of 86% in identifying high-risk subjects among hypertensive patients. Automatic identification of hypertensive patients with history of fall: it was explored whether an automatic identification of fallers among hypertensive patients based on HRV was feasible. The results obtained in this thesis could have implications both in clinical practice and in clinical research. The system has been designed and developed in order to be clinically feasible. Moreover, since 5-minute ECG recording is inexpensive, easy to assess, and non-invasive, future research will focus on the clinical applicability of the system as a screening tool in non-specialized ambulatories, in order to identify high-risk patients to be shortlisted for more complex investigations.

Oblique ionograms automatic scaling and eikonal based ray tracing

A method for automatic scaling of oblique ionograms has been introduced. This method also provides a rejection procedure for ionograms that are considered to lack sufficient information, depicting a very good success rate. Observing the Kp index of each autoscaled ionogram, can be noticed that the behavior of the autoscaling program does not depend on geomagnetic conditions. The comparison between the values of the MUF provided by the presented software and those obtained by an experienced operator indicate that the procedure developed for detecting the nose of oblique ionogram traces is sufficiently efficient and becomes much more efficient as the quality of the ionograms improves. These results demonstrate the program allows the real-time evaluation of MUF values associated with a particular radio link through an oblique radio sounding. The automatic recognition of a part of the trace allows determine for certain frequencies, the time taken by the radio wave to travel the path between the transmitter and receiver. The reconstruction of the ionogram traces, suggests the possibility of estimating the electron density between the transmitter and the receiver, from an oblique ionogram. The showed results have been obtained with a ray-tracing procedure based on the integration of the eikonal equation and using an analytical ionospheric model with free parameters. This indicates the possibility of applying an adaptive model and a ray-tracing algorithm to estimate the electron density in the ionosphere between the transmitter and the receiver An additional study has been conducted on a high quality ionospheric soundings data set and another algorithm has been designed for the conversion of an oblique ionogram into a vertical one, using Martyn's theorem. This allows a further analysis of oblique soundings, throw the use of the INGV Autoscala program for the automatic scaling of vertical ionograms.