Data surveillance for infectious diseases: models, complex networks and machine learning

In this thesis, we investigate the role of applied physics in epidemiological surveillance through the application of mathematical models, network science and machine learning. The spread of a communicable disease depends on many biological, social, and health factors. The large masses of data available make it possible, on the one hand, to monitor the evolution and spread of pathogenic organisms; on the other hand, to study the behavior of people, their opinions and habits. Presented here are three lines of research in which an attempt was made to solve real epidemiological problems through data analysis and the use of statistical and mathematical models. In Chapter 1, we applied language-inspired Deep Learning models to transform influenza protein sequences into vectors encoding their information content. We then attempted to reconstruct the antigenic properties of different viral strains using regression models and to identify the mutations responsible for vaccine escape. In Chapter 2, we constructed a compartmental model to describe the spread of a bacterium within a hospital ward. The model was informed and validated on time series of clinical measurements, and a sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different control measures. Finally (Chapter 3) we reconstructed the network of retweets among COVID-19 themed Twitter users in the early months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. By means of community detection algorithms and centrality measures, we characterized users’ attention shifts in the network, showing that scientific communities, initially the most retweeted, lost influence over time to national political communities. In the Conclusion, we highlighted the importance of the work done in light of the main contemporary challenges for epidemiological surveillance. In particular, we present reflections on the importance of nowcasting and forecasting, the relationship between data and scientific research, and the need to unite the different scales of epidemiological surveillance.

Development of oil spill detection techniques for satellite optical sensors and their application to monitor oil spill discharge in Mediterranean sea

Satellite remote sensing has proved to be an effective support in timely detection and monitoring of marine oil pollution, mainly due to illegal ship discharges. In this context, we have developed a new methodology and technique for optical oil spill detection, which make use of MODIS L2 and MERIS L1B satellite top of atmosphere (TOA) reflectance imagery, for the first time in a highly automated way. The main idea was combining wide swaths and short revisit times of optical sensors with SAR observations, generally used in oil spill monitoring. This arises from the necessity to overcome the SAR reduced coverage and long revisit time of the monitoring area. This can be done now, given the MODIS and MERIS higher spatial resolution with respect to older sensors (250-300 m vs. 1 km), which consents the identification of smaller spills deriving from illicit discharge at sea. The procedure to obtain identifiable spills in optical reflectance images involves removal of oceanic and atmospheric natural variability, in order to enhance oil-water contrast; image clustering, which purpose is to segment the oil spill eventually presents in the image; finally, the application of a set of criteria for the elimination of those features which look like spills (look-alikes). The final result is a classification of oil spill candidate regions by means of a score based on the above criteria.

Detection and Modeling of Boundary Layer Height

This thesis tackles the problem of the automated detection of the atmospheric boundary layer (BL) height, h, from aerosol lidar/ceilometer observations. A new method, the Bayesian Selective Method (BSM), is presented. It implements a Bayesian statistical inference procedure which combines in an statistically optimal way different sources of information. Firstly atmospheric stratification boundaries are located from discontinuities in the ceilometer back-scattered signal. The BSM then identifies the discontinuity edge that has the highest probability to effectively mark the BL height. Information from the contemporaneus physical boundary layer model simulations and a climatological dataset of BL height evolution are combined in the assimilation framework to assist this choice. The BSM algorithm has been tested for four months of continuous ceilometer measurements collected during the BASE:ALFA project and is shown to realistically diagnose the BL depth evolution in many different weather conditions. Then the BASE:ALFA dataset is used to investigate the boundary layer structure in stable conditions. Functions from the Obukhov similarity theory are used as regression curves to fit observed velocity and temperature profiles in the lower half of the stable boundary layer. Surface fluxes of heat and momentum are best-fitting parameters in this exercise and are compared with what measured by a sonic anemometer. The comparison shows remarkable discrepancies, more evident in cases for which the bulk Richardson number turns out to be quite large. This analysis supports earlier results, that surface turbulent fluxes are not the appropriate scaling parameters for profiles of mean quantities in very stable conditions. One of the practical consequences is that boundary layer height diagnostic formulations which mainly rely on surface fluxes are in disagreement to what obtained by inspecting co-located radiosounding profiles.

Enabling Human Centric Smart Campuses via Edge Computing and Connected Objects

Early definitions of Smart Building focused almost entirely on the technology aspect and did not suggest user interaction at all. Indeed, today we would attribute it more to the concept of the automated building. In this sense, control of comfort conditions inside buildings is a problem that is being well investigated, since it has a direct effect on users’ productivity and an indirect effect on energy saving. Therefore, from the users’ perspective, a typical environment can be considered comfortable, if it’s capable of providing adequate thermal comfort, visual comfort and indoor air quality conditions and acoustic comfort. In the last years, the scientific community has dealt with many challenges, especially from a technological point of view. For instance, smart sensing devices, the internet, and communication technologies have enabled a new paradigm called Edge computing that brings computation and data storage closer to the location where it is needed, to improve response times and save bandwidth. This has allowed us to improve services, sustainability and decision making. Many solutions have been implemented such as smart classrooms, controlling the thermal condition of the building, monitoring HVAC data for energy-efficient of the campus and so forth. Though these projects provide to the realization of smart campus, a framework for smart campus is yet to be determined. These new technologies have also introduced new research challenges: within this thesis work, some of the principal open challenges will be faced, proposing a new conceptual framework, technologies and tools to move forward the actual implementation of smart campuses. Keeping in mind, several problems known in the literature have been investigated: the occupancy detection, noise monitoring for acoustic comfort, context awareness inside the building, wayfinding indoor, strategic deployment for air quality and books preserving.

Integration of heterogeneous data sources and automated reasoning in healthcare and domotic IoT systems

In recent years, IoT technology has radically transformed many crucial industrial and service sectors such as healthcare. The multi-facets heterogeneity of the devices and the collected information provides important opportunities to develop innovative systems and services. However, the ubiquitous presence of data silos and the poor semantic interoperability in the IoT landscape constitute a significant obstacle in the pursuit of this goal. Moreover, achieving actionable knowledge from the collected data requires IoT information sources to be analysed using appropriate artificial intelligence techniques such as automated reasoning. In this thesis work, Semantic Web technologies have been investigated as an approach to address both the data integration and reasoning aspect in modern IoT systems. In particular, the contributions presented in this thesis are the following: (1) the IoT Fitness Ontology, an OWL ontology that has been developed in order to overcome the issue of data silos and enable semantic interoperability in the IoT fitness domain; (2) a Linked Open Data web portal for collecting and sharing IoT health datasets with the research community; (3) a novel methodology for embedding knowledge in rule-defined IoT smart home scenarios; and (4) a knowledge-based IoT home automation system that supports a seamless integration of heterogeneous devices and data sources.