A novel map-matching procedure for low-sampling GPS data with applications to traffic flow analysis

An extensive sample (2%) of private vehicles in Italy are equipped with a GPS device that periodically measures their position and dynamical state for insurance purposes. Having access to this type of data allows to develop theoretical and practical applications of great interest: the real-time reconstruction of traffic state in a certain region, the development of accurate models of vehicle dynamics, the study of the cognitive dynamics of drivers. In order for these applications to be possible, we first need to develop the ability to reconstruct the paths taken by vehicles on the road network from the raw GPS data. In fact, these data are affected by positioning errors and they are often very distanced from each other (~2 Km). For these reasons, the task of path identification is not straightforward. This thesis describes the approach we followed to reliably identify vehicle paths from this kind of low-sampling data. The problem of matching data with roads is solved with a bayesian approach of maximum likelihood. While the identification of the path taken between two consecutive GPS measures is performed with a specifically developed optimal routing algorithm, based on A* algorithm. The procedure was applied on an off-line urban data sample and proved to be robust and accurate. Future developments will extend the procedure to real-time execution and nation-wide coverage.

Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

A multiparental cross population for mapping QTL for relevant agronomic traits in durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.)

Multiparental cross designs for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) in crops are efficient alternatives to conventional biparental experimental populations because they exploit a broader genetic basis and higher mapping resolution. We describe the development and deployment of a multiparental recombinant inbred line (RIL) population in durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) obtained by crossing four elite cultivars characterized by different traits of agronomic value. A linkage map spanning 2,663 cM and including 7,594 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was produced by genotyping 338 RILs with a wheat-dedicated 90k SNP chip. A cluster file was developed for correct allele calling in the framework of the tetraploid durum wheat genome. Based on phenotypic data collected over four field experiments, a multi-trait quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis was carried out for 18 traits of agronomic relevance (including yield, yield-components, morpho-physiological and seed quality traits). Across environments, a total of 63 QTL were identified and characterized in terms of the four founder haplotypes. We mapped two QTL for grain yield across environments and 23 QTL for grain yield components. A novel major QTL for number of grain per spikelet/ear was mapped on chr 2A and shown to control up to 39% of phenotypic variance in this cross. Functionally different QTL alleles, in terms of direction and size of genetic effect, were distributed among the four parents. Based on the occurrence of QTL-clusters, we characterized the breeding values (in terms of effects on yield) of most of QTL for heading and maturity as well as yield component and quality QTL. This multiparental RIL population provides the wheat community with a highly informative QTL mapping resource enabling the dissection of the genetic architecture of multiple agronomic relevant traits in durum wheat.

Indagini forensi in tema di scambio di file pedopornografici mediante software di file sharing a mezzo peer-to-peer

La prova informatica richiede l’adozione di precauzioni come in un qualsiasi altro accertamento scientifico. Si fornisce una panoramica sugli aspetti metodologici e applicativi dell’informatica forense alla luce del recente standard ISO/IEC 27037:2012 in tema di trattamento del reperto informatico nelle fasi di identificazione, raccolta, acquisizione e conservazione del dato digitale. Tali metodologie si attengono scrupolosamente alle esigenze di integrità e autenticità richieste dalle norme in materia di informatica forense, in particolare della Legge 48/2008 di ratifica della Convenzione di Budapest sul Cybercrime. In merito al reato di pedopornografia si offre una rassegna della normativa comunitaria e nazionale, ponendo l’enfasi sugli aspetti rilevanti ai fini dell’analisi forense. Rilevato che il file sharing su reti peer-to-peer è il canale sul quale maggiormente si concentra lo scambio di materiale illecito, si fornisce una panoramica dei protocolli e dei sistemi maggiormente diffusi, ponendo enfasi sulla rete eDonkey e il software eMule che trovano ampia diffusione tra gli utenti italiani. Si accenna alle problematiche che si incontrano nelle attività di indagine e di repressione del fenomeno, di competenza delle forze di polizia, per poi concentrarsi e fornire il contributo rilevante in tema di analisi forensi di sistemi informatici sequestrati a soggetti indagati (o imputati) di reato di pedopornografia: la progettazione e l’implementazione di eMuleForensic consente di svolgere in maniera estremamente precisa e rapida le operazioni di analisi degli eventi che si verificano utilizzando il software di file sharing eMule; il software è disponibile sia in rete all’url http://www.emuleforensic.com, sia come tool all’interno della distribuzione forense DEFT. Infine si fornisce una proposta di protocollo operativo per l’analisi forense di sistemi informatici coinvolti in indagini forensi di pedopornografia.

Quality assessment of a landslide inventory map and its application to land‐use planning. A case study in the Northern Apennines (Emilia‐Romagna region, Italy)

Landslide hazard and risk are growing as a consequence of climate change and demographic pressure. Land‐use planning represents a powerful tool to manage this socio‐economic problem and build sustainable and landslide resilient communities. Landslide inventory maps are a cornerstone of land‐use planning and, consequently, their quality assessment represents a burning issue. This work aimed to define the quality parameters of a landslide inventory and assess its spatial and temporal accuracy with regard to its possible applications to land‐use planning. In this sense, I proceeded according to a two‐steps approach. An overall assessment of the accuracy of data geographic positioning was performed on four case study sites located in the Italian Northern Apennines. The quantification of the overall spatial and temporal accuracy, instead, focused on the Dorgola Valley (Province of Reggio Emilia). The assessment of spatial accuracy involved a comparison between remotely sensed and field survey data, as well as an innovative fuzzylike analysis of a multi‐temporal landslide inventory map. Conversely, long‐ and short‐term landslide temporal persistence was appraised over a period of 60 years with the aid of 18 remotely sensed image sets. These results were eventually compared with the current Territorial Plan for Provincial Coordination (PTCP) of the Province of Reggio Emilia. The outcome of this work suggested that geomorphologically detected and mapped landslides are a significant approximation of a more complex reality. In order to convey to the end‐users this intrinsic uncertainty, a new form of cartographic representation is needed. In this sense, a fuzzy raster landslide map may be an option. With regard to land‐use planning, landslide inventory maps, if appropriately updated, confirmed to be essential decision‐support tools. This research, however, proved that their spatial and temporal uncertainty discourages any direct use as zoning maps, especially when zoning itself is associated to statutory or advisory regulations.