On the effect of confounding in linear regression models: an approach based on the theory of quadratic forms

The main topic of this thesis is confounding in linear regression models. It arises when a relationship between an observed process, the covariate, and an outcome process, the response, is influenced by an unmeasured process, the confounder, associated with both. Consequently, the estimators for the regression coefficients of the measured covariates might be severely biased, less efficient and characterized by misleading interpretations. Confounding is an issue when the primary target of the work is the estimation of the regression parameters. The central point of the dissertation is the evaluation of the sampling properties of parameter estimators. This work aims to extend the spatial confounding framework to general structured settings and to understand the behaviour of confounding as a function of the data generating process structure parameters in several scenarios focusing on the joint covariate-confounder structure. In line with the spatial statistics literature, our purpose is to quantify the sampling properties of the regression coefficient estimators and, in turn, to identify the most prominent quantities depending on the generative mechanism impacting confounding. Once the sampling properties of the estimator conditionally on the covariate process are derived as ratios of dependent quadratic forms in Gaussian random variables, we provide an analytic expression of the marginal sampling properties of the estimator using Carlson’s R function. Additionally, we propose a representative quantity for the magnitude of confounding as a proxy of the bias, its first-order Laplace approximation. To conclude, we work under several frameworks considering spatial and temporal data with specific assumptions regarding the covariance and cross-covariance functions used to generate the processes involved. This study allows us to claim that the variability of the confounder-covariate interaction and of the covariate plays the most relevant role in determining the principal marker of the magnitude of confounding.

Black hole scattering from Worldline Quantum Field Theory and the Classical Double Copy of Spinning particles

This PhD thesis focuses on studying the classical scattering of massive/massless particles toward black holes, and investigating double copy relations between classical observables in gauge theories and gravity. This is done in the Post-Minkowskian approximation i.e. a perturbative expansion of observables controlled by the gravitational coupling constant κ = 32πGN, with GN being the Newtonian coupling constant. The investigation is performed by using the Worldline Quantum Field Theory (WQFT), displaying a worldline path integral describing the scattering objects and a QFT path integral in the Born approximation, describing the intermediate bosons exchanged in the scattering event by the massive/massless particles. We introduce the WQFT, by deriving a relation between the Kosower- Maybee-O’Connell (KMOC) limit of amplitudes and worldline path integrals, then, we use that to study the classical Compton amplitude and higher point amplitudes. We also present a nice application of our formulation to the case of Hard Thermal Loops (HTL), by explicitly evaluating hard thermal currents in gauge theory and gravity. Next we move to the investigation of the classical double copy (CDC), which is a powerful tool to generate integrands for classical observables related to the binary inspiralling problem in General Relativity. In order to use a Bern-Carrasco-Johansson (BCJ) like prescription, straight at the classical level, one has to identify a double copy (DC) kernel, encoding the locality structure of the classical amplitude. Such kernel is evaluated by using a theory where scalar particles interacts through bi-adjoint scalars. We show here how to push forward the classical double copy so to account for spinning particles, in the framework of the WQFT. Here the quantization procedure on the worldline allows us to fully reconstruct the quantum theory on the gravitational side. Next we investigate how to describe the scattering of massless particles off black holes in the WQFT.