Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Essays in Applied Health Economics: Evidence on Health and Health Care in Italy and UK

This thesis is the result of my experience as a PhD student taking part in the Joint Doctoral Programme at the University of York and the University of Bologna. In my thesis I deal with topics that are of particular interest in Italy and in Great Britain. Chapter 2 focuses on the empirical test of the existence of the relationship between technological profiles and market structure claimed by Sutton’s theory (1991, 1998) in the specific economic framework of hospital care services provided by the Italian National Health Service (NHS). In order to test the empirical predictions by Sutton, we identify the relevant markets for hospital care services in Italy in terms of both product and geographic dimensions. In particular, the Elzinga and Hogarty (1978) approach has been applied to data on patients’ flows across Italian Provinces in order to derive the geographic dimension of each market. Our results provide evidence in favour of the empirical predictions of Sutton. Chapter 3 deals with the patient mobility in the Italian NHS. To analyse the determinants of patient mobility across Local Health Authorities, we estimate gravity equations in multiplicative form using a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method, as proposed by Santos-Silva and Tenreyro (2006). In particular, we focus on the scale effect played by the size of the pool of enrolees. In most of the cases our results are consistent with the predictions of the gravity model. Chapter 4 considers the effects of contractual and working conditions on selfassessed health and psychological well-being (derived from the General Health Questionnaire) using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We consider two branches of the literature. One suggests that “atypical” contractual conditions have a significant impact on health while the other suggests that health is damaged by adverse working conditions. The main objective of our paper is to combine the two branches of the literature to assess the distinct effects of contractual and working conditions on health. The results suggest that both sets of conditions have some influence on health and psychological well-being of employees.

Copper(I) phenanthroline complexes and supramolecular systems containing fullerenes: Photophysics, photochemistry and potential applications in sustainable energy technologies.

Chemistry can contribute, in many different ways to solve the challenges we are facing to modify our inefficient and fossil-fuel based energy system. The present work was motivated by the search for efficient photoactive materials to be employed in the context of the energy problem: materials to be utilized in energy efficient devices and in the production of renewable electricity and fuels. We presented a new class of copper complexes, that could find application in lighting techhnologies, by serving as luminescent materials in LEC, OLED, WOLED devices. These technologies may provide substantial energy savings in the lighting sector. Moreover, recently, copper complexes have been used as light harvesting compounds in dye sensitized photoelectrochemical solar cells, which offer a viable alternative to silicon-based photovoltaic technologies. We presented also a few supramolecular systems containing fullerene, e.g. dendrimers, dyads and triads.The most complex among these arrays, which contain porphyrin moieties, are presented in the final chapter. They undergo photoinduced energy- and electron transfer processes also with long-lived charge separated states, i.e. the fundamental processes to power artificial photosynthetic systems.

Use of solvents and environmental friendly materials for applications in Green Chemistry

The present Thesis studies three alternative solvent groups as sustainable replacement of traditional organic solvents. Some aspects of fluorinated solvents, supercritical fluids and ionic liquids, have been analysed with a critical approach and their effective “greenness” has been evaluated from the points of view of the synthesis, the properties and the applications. In particular, the attention has been put on the environmental and human health issues, evaluating the eco-toxicity, the toxicity and the persistence, to underline that applicability and sustainability are subjects with equal importance. The “green” features of fluorous solvents and supercritical fluids are almost well-established; in particular supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2) is probably the “greenest” solvent among the alternative solvent systems developed in the last years, enabling to combine numerous advantages both from the point of view of industrial/technological applications and eco-compatibility. In the Thesis the analysis of these two classes of alternative solvents has been mainly focused on their applicability, rather than the evaluation of their environmental impact. Specifically they have been evaluated as alternative media for non-aqueous biocatalysis. For this purpose, the hydrophobic ion pairing (HIP), which allows solubilising enzymes in apolar solvents by an ion pairing between the protein and a surfactant, has been investigated as effective enzymatic derivatisation technique to improve the catalytic activity under homogeneous conditions in non conventional media. The results showed that the complex enzyme-surfactant was much more active both in fluorous solvents and in supercritical carbon dioxide than the native form of the enzyme. Ionic liquids, especially imidazolium salts, have been proposed some years ago as “fully green” alternative solvents; however this epithet does not take into account several “brown” aspects such as their synthesis from petro-chemical starting materials, their considerable eco-toxicity, toxicity and resistance to biodegradation, and the difficulty of clearly outline applications in which ionic liquids are really more advantageous than traditional solvents. For all of these reasons in this Thesis a critical analysis of ionic liquids has been focused on three main topics: i) alternative synthesis by introducing structural moieties which could reduce the toxicity of the most known liquid salts, and by using starting materials from renewable resources; ii) on the evaluation of their environmental impact through eco-toxicological tests (Daphnia magna and Vibrio fischeri acute toxicity tests, and algal growth inhibition), toxicity tests (MTT test, AChE inhibition and LDH release tests) and fate and rate of aerobic biodegradation in soil and water; iii) and on the demonstration of their effectiveness as reaction media in organo-catalysis and as extractive solvents in the recovery of vegetable oil from terrestrial and aquatic biomass. The results about eco-toxicity tests with Daphnia magna, Vibrio fischeri and algae, and toxicity assay using cultured cell lines, clearly indicate that the difference in toxicity between alkyl and oxygenated cations relies in differences of polarity, according to the general trend of decreasing toxicity by decreasing the lipophilicity. Independently by the biological approach in fact, all the results are in agreement, showing a lower toxicity for compounds with oxygenated lateral chains than for those having purely alkyl lateral chains. These findings indicate that an appropriate choice of cation and anion structures is important not only to design the IL with improved and suitable chemico-physical properties but also to obtain safer and eco-friendly ILs. Moreover there is a clear indication that the composition of the abiotic environment has to be taken into account when the toxicity of ILs in various biological test systems is analysed, because, for example, the data reported in the Thesis indicate a significant influence of salinity variations on algal toxicity. Aerobic biodegradation of four imidazolium ionic liquids, two alkylated and two oxygenated, in soil was evaluated for the first time. Alkyl ionic liquids were shown to be biodegradable over the 6 months test period, and in contrast no significant mineralisation was observed with oxygenated derivatives. A different result was observed in the aerobic biodegradation of alkylated and oxygenated pyridinium ionic liquids in water because all the ionic liquids were almost completely degraded after 10 days, independently by the number of oxygen in the lateral chain of the cation. The synthesis of new ionic liquids by using renewable feedstock as starting materials, has been developed through the synthesis of furan-based ion pairs from furfural. The new ammonium salts were synthesised in very good yields, good purity of the products and wide versatility, combining low melting points with high decomposition temperatures and reduced viscosities. Regarding the possible applications as surfactants and biocides, furan-based salts could be a valuable alternative to benzyltributylammonium salts and benzalkonium chloride that are produced from non-renewable resources. A new procedure for the allylation of ketones and aldehydes with tetraallyltin in ionic liquids was developed. The reaction afforded high yields both in sulfonate-containing ILs and in ILs without sulfonate upon addition of a small amount of sulfonic acid. The checked reaction resulted in peculiar chemoselectivity favouring aliphatic substrates towards aromatic ketones and good stereoselectivity in the allylation of levoglucosenone. Finally ILs-based systems could be easily and successfully recycled, making the described procedure environmentally benign. The potential role of switchable polarity solvents as a green technology for the extraction of vegetable oil from terrestrial and aquatic biomass has been investigated. The extraction efficiency of terrestrial biomass rich in triacylglycerols, as soy bean flakes and sunflower seeds, was comparable to those of traditional organic solvents, being the yield of vegetable oils recovery very similar. Switchable polarity solvents as been also exploited for the first time in the extraction of hydrocarbons from the microalga Botryococcus braunii, demonstrating the efficiency of the process for the extraction of both dried microalgal biomass and directly of the aqueous growth medium. The switchable polarity solvents exhibited better extraction efficiency than conventional solvents, both with dried and liquid samples. This is an important issue considering that the harvest and the dewatering of algal biomass have a large impact on overall costs and energy balance.

Sustainable inorganic Binders and Their Applications in Building Engineering: A Green Alternative to Ordinary Portland Cement

In the last decades, the building materials and construction industry has been contributing to a great extent to generate a high impact on our environment. As it has been considered one of the key areas in which to operate to significantly reduce our footprint on environment, there has been widespread belief that particular attention now has to be paid and specific measures have to be taken to limit the use of non-renewable resources.The aim of this thesis is therefore to study and evaluate sustainable alternatives to commonly used building materials, mainly based on ordinary Portland Cement, and find a supportable path to reduce CO2 emissions and promote the re-use of waste materials. More specifically, this research explores different solutions for replacing cementitious binders in distinct application fields, particularly where special and more restricting requirements are needed, such as restoration and conservation of architectural heritage. Emphasis was thus placed on aspects and implications more closely related to the concept of non-invasivity and environmental sustainability. A first part of the research was addressed to the study and development of sustainable inorganic matrices, based on lime putty, for the pre-impregnation and on-site binding of continuous carbon fiber fabrics for structural rehabilitation and heritage restoration. Moreover, with the aim to further limit the exploitation of non-renewable resources, the synthesis of chemically activated silico-aluminate materials, as metakaolin, ladle slag or fly ash, was thus successfully achieved. New sustainable binders were hence proposed as novel building materials, suitable to be used as primary component for construction and repair mortars, as bulk materials in high-temperature applications or as matrices for high-toughness fiber reinforced composites.

Evaluation of Microbial Contamination in Bivalve Mollusks: Epidemiology and Diagnosis

Shellfish are filter-feeding organisms that can accumulate many bacteria and viruses. Considering that depuration procedures are not effective in removal of certain microorganisms, shellfish-borne diseases are frequent in many parts of the world, and their control must rely primarily on investigation of prevalence of human pathogens in shellfish and water environment. However, the diffusion of enteric viruses and Vibrio bacteria is not known in many geographical areas, for example in Sardinia, Italy. A survey aimed at investigating the prevalence of Norovirus (NoV), hepatitis A virus (HAV), V. parahaemolyticus, V. cholerae and V. vulnificus was carried out, analyzing both local and imported purified, non-purified and retail shellfish from North Italy and Sardinia. Shellfish from both areas were found contaminated by NoVs, HAV and Vibrio, including retail and purified animals. Molecular analysis evidenced different NoV genogroups and genotypes, including bovine NoVs, as well as pathogenic Vibrio strains, underlining the risk for shellfish consumers. However, also other approaches are needed to control the diffusion of shellfish-borne diseases. It was originally thought that enteric viruses are passively accumulated by shellfish. Recently, it was proven that NoVs bind to specific carbohydrate ligands in oysters, and various NoV strains are characterized by a different bioaccumulation pattern. To deepen the knowledge on this argument, a study was carried out, analyzing bioaccumulation of up to 8 different NoV strains in four different species of shellfish. Different bioaccumulation patterns were observed for each shellfish species and NoV strain used, potentially important in setting up effective shellfish purification protocols. Finally, a novel study of evaluation of viral contamination in shellfish from the French Atlantic coast was carried out following the passage of Xynthia tempest over Western Europe which caused massive destruction. Different enteric viruses were found over a one month period, evidencing the potential of these events of contaminating shellfish.

Essays in Household and Demographic Economics

This dissertation consists of three empirical studies that are believed to provide new contributions to the literature exploring the determinants of children/adolescents achievement test scores (Chapter 2), adolescent health risk behaviors (Chapter 3), and children time use patterns (Chapter 4). The second and third studies look at the separate roles of fathers and of mothers in influencing outcomes, wherein parental time is the resource input of interest quantitatively measured and directly derived from time diaries. The last chapter looks at the time allocation of children and how it varies according to child and household characteristics.

Computational Methods in Biophysics and Medicinal Chemistry: Applications and Challenges

In this thesis I described the theory and application of several computational methods in solving medicinal chemistry and biophysical tasks. I pointed out to the valuable information which could be achieved by means of computer simulations and to the possibility to predict the outcome of traditional experiments. Nowadays, computer represents an invaluable tool for chemists. In particular, the main topics of my research consisted in the development of an automated docking protocol for the voltage-gated hERG potassium channel blockers, and the investigation of the catalytic mechanism of the human peptidyl-prolyl cis-trans isomerase Pin1.

Flow Field–Flow Fractionation for size analysis and characterization of nanoparticles for applications in Life Sciences

Nanotechnologies are rapidly expanding because of the opportunities that the new materials offer in many areas such as the manufacturing industry, food production, processing and preservation, and in the pharmaceutical and cosmetic industry. Size distribution of the nanoparticles determines their properties and is a fundamental parameter that needs to be monitored from the small-scale synthesis up to the bulk production and quality control of nanotech products on the market. A consequence of the increasing number of applications of nanomaterial is that the EU regulatory authorities are introducing the obligation for companies that make use of nanomaterials to acquire analytical platforms for the assessment of the size parameters of the nanomaterials. In this work, Asymmetrical Flow Field-Flow Fractionation (AF4) and Hollow Fiber F4 (HF5), hyphenated with Multiangle Light Scattering (MALS) are presented as tools for a deep functional characterization of nanoparticles. In particular, it is demonstrated the applicability of AF4-MALS for the characterization of liposomes in a wide series of mediums. Afterwards the technique is used to explore the functional features of a liposomal drug vector in terms of its biological and physical interaction with blood serum components: a comprehensive approach to understand the behavior of lipid vesicles in terms of drug release and fusion/interaction with other biological species is described, together with weaknesses and strength of the method. Afterwards the size characterization, size stability, and conjugation of azidothymidine drug molecules with a new generation of metastable drug vectors, the Metal Organic Frameworks, is discussed. Lastly, it is shown the applicability of HF5-ICP-MS for the rapid screening of samples of relevant nanorisk: rather than a deep and comprehensive characterization it this time shown a quick and smart methodology that within few steps provides qualitative information on the content of metallic nanoparticles in tattoo ink samples.

Behaviour and applications of elastic waves in structures and metamaterials

The present thesis focuses on elastic waves behaviour in ordinary structures as well as in acousto-elastic metamaterials via numerical and experimental applications. After a brief introduction on the behaviour of elastic guided waves in the framework of non-destructive evaluation (NDE) and structural health monitoring (SHM) and on the study of elastic waves propagation in acousto-elastic metamaterials, dispersion curves for thin-walled beams and arbitrary cross-section waveguides are extracted via Semi-Analytical Finite Element (SAFE) methods. Thus, a novel strategy tackling signal dispersion to locate defects in irregular waveguides is proposed and numerically validated. Finally, a time-reversal and laser-vibrometry based procedure for impact location is numerically and experimentally tested. In the second part, an introduction and a brief review of the basic definitions necessary to describe acousto-elastic metamaterials is provided. A numerical approach to extract dispersion properties in such structures is highlighted. Afterwards, solid-solid and solid-fluid phononic systems are discussed via numerical applications. In particular, band structures and transmission power spectra are predicted for 1P-2D, 2P-2D and 2P-3D phononic systems. In addition, attenuation bands in the ultrasonic as well as in the sonic frequency regimes are experimentally investigated. In the experimental validation, PZTs in a pitch-catch configuration and laser vibrometric measurements are performed on a PVC phononic plate in the ultrasonic frequency range and sound insulation index is computed for a 2P-3D phononic barrier in the sonic frequency range. In both cases the numerical-experimental results comparison confirms the existence of the numerical predicted band-gaps. Finally, the feasibility of an innovative passive isolation strategy based on giant elastic metamaterials is numerically proved to be practical for civil structures. In particular, attenuation of seismic waves is demonstrated via finite elements analyses. Further, a parametric study shows that depending on the soil properties, such an earthquake-proof barrier could lead to significant reduction of the superstructure displacement.

Essays in Applied and Labor Economics

This thesis consists of three self-contained papers. In the first paper I analyze the labor supply behavior of Bologna Pizza Delivery Vendors. Recent influential papers analyze labor supply behavior of taxi drivers (Camerer et al., 1997; and Crawford and Meng, 2011) and suggest that reference-dependence preferences have an important influence on drivers’ labor-supply decisions. Unlike previous papers, I am able to identify an exogenous and transitory change in labor demand. Using high frequency data on orders and rainfall as an exogenous demand shifter, I invariably find that reference-dependent preferences play no role in their labor’ supply decisions and the behavior of pizza vendors is perfectly consistent with the predictions of the standard model of labor’ supply. In the second paper, I investigate how the voting behavior of Members of Parliament is influenced by the Members seating nearby. By exploiting the random seating arrangements in the Icelandic Parliament, I show that being seated next to Members of a different party increases the probability of not being aligned with one’s own party. Using the exact spatial orientation of the peers, I provide evidence that supports the hypothesis that interaction is the main channel that explain these results. In the third paper, I provide an estimate of the trade flows that there would have been between the UK and Europe if the UK had joined the Euro. As an alternative approach to the standard log-linear gravity equation I employ the synthetic control method. I show that the aggregate trade flows between Britain and Europe would have been 13% higher if the UK had adopted the Euro.

Essays in Applied and Labor Economics

This thesis consists of three chapters. First and second chapter include original research papers with the focus of health behavior and refugee migration. In the context of a high-income developing country, Turkey, I provide new insights for the established policy discussions in the literature. Then, third chapter reviews the literature and perspectives on the determinants of attitude formation towards migration policy and migrants. This chapter extends the discussion in Chapter 2 and aims at understanding the reasons of recent global trends in anti-migration attitudes. In Chapter 1, I investigate the effects of education on the early investments of mothers in their children aged between 0-5. Exploiting a compulsory schooling reform, I document the causal effects of education on young mothers' health investments during pregnancy and postnatal period. Results suggest that there are positive effects on the use of health care services, while no effects on breast- feeding or vaccination take-ups. These results can be put into context through newly implemented Health Transformation Program in the country. I show that educated mothers use new services more and empowerment effects of the education have a role in the service use. This study gives important policy lessons to improve mothers' health care use and early child conditions in developing countries. In Chapter 2, I investigate the effects of refugee inflow on the voting behavior of natives. I use a novel data provided by a telecommunication company, focus on pre and post refugee inflow elections and investigate the vote share of the party announced "open-door" policy. Analysis suggests that although refugees and natives are culturally closer than the Western country contexts, small negative effects documented are likely be driven by non-economic reasons. These findings bring a new perspective to understand why anti-immigrant sentiments are easy to use and manipulate.

Novel hydroxystearoyl-, heterocyclic and carbocyclic derivatives: synthesis and applications in biological field

This PhD project has been mainly focused on the synthesis of novel organic compounds containing heterocyclic and/or carbocyclic scaffold and on the study of stearic acid derivatives and their applications in biological field. The synthesis of novel derivatives of 9-hydroxystearic acid (9-HSA) evidenced how the presence of substituents on C9, able to make hydrogen bonds is of crucial importance for the biological activity. Also the position of the hydroxy group along the chain of hydroxystearic acids was investigated: regioisomers with the hydroxy group bound to odd carbons resulted more active than those bearing the hydroxy group on even carbons. Further, the insertion of (R)-9-HSA in magnetic nanoparticles gave a novel material which characterization remarked its suitability for drug delivery. Structural hybrids between amino aza-heterocycles and azelaic acid have been synthesized and some of them showed a selective activity towards osteosarcoma cell line U2OS. Several Apcin analogues bearing indole, benzothiazole, benzofurazan moieties connected to tryptaminyl-, amino pyridinyl-, pyrimidinyl- and pyrazinyl ring through a 1,1,1-trichloroethyl group were synthesized. Biological tests showed the importance of both the tryptaminyl and the pyrimidinyl moieties, confirming the effectiveness against acute leukemia models. The SNAr between 2-aminothiazole derivatives and 7-chlorodinitrobenzofuroxan revealed different behaviour depending from amino substituent of the thiazole. The reaction with 2-N-piperidinyl-, 2-N-morpholinyl-, or 2-N-pyrrolidinyl thiazole gave two isomeric species derived from the attack on C-5 of thiazole ring. Thiazoles substituted with primary- or not-cyclic secondary amines reacted with the exocyclic amino nitrogen atom giving a series of compounds whose biological activity have highlighted as they might be promising candidates for further development of antitumor agents. A series of 9-fluorenylidene derivatives, of interest in medical and optoelectronic field as organic scintillators, was synthesized through Wittig or Suzuky reaction and will be analyzed to test their potential scintillatory properties.

Development, mechanical characterization and qualification in liquid lead of stainless steels for structural applications in the future fission and fusion nuclear reactors

The research activity carried out in the Brasimone Research Center of ENEA concerns the development and mechanical characterization of steels conceived as structural materials for future fission reactors (Heavy Liquid Metal IV Generation reactors: MYRRHA and ALFRED) and for the future fusion reactor DEMO. Within this framework, two parallel lines of research have been carried out: (i) characterization in liquid lead of steels and weldings for the components of the IV Generation fission reactors (GIV) by means of creep and SSRT (Slow Strain Rate Tensile) tests; (ii) development and screening on mechanical properties of RAFM (Reduced Activation Ferritic Martensitic) steels to be employed as structural materials of the future DEMO fusion reactor. The doctoral work represents therefore a comprehensive report of the research carried out on nuclear materials both from the point of view of the qualification of existing (commercial) materials for their application in the typical environmental conditions of 4th generation fission reactors operating with lead as coolant, and from the point of view of the metallurgical study (with annexed microstructural and mechanical characterization of the selected compositions / Thermo Mechanical Treatment (TMT) options) of new compositional variants to be proposed for the “Breeding Blanket” of the future DEMO Fusion Reactor.