Quantitative evaluation of household nutrition patterns: an econometric assessment of the UK 5-a-day impact on fruit and vegetable consumption

The present work provides an ex-post assessment of the UK 5-a-day information campaign where the positive effects of information on consumption levels are disentangled from the potentially conflicting price dynamics. A model-based estimate of the counterfactual (no-intervention) scenario is computed using data from the Expenditure and Food Survey between 2002 and 2006. For this purpose fruit and vegetable demand is modelled employing Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) specification with demographic effects and controlling for potential endogeneity of prices and total food expenditure.

Effect of rearing techniques and feed composition on productive traits, bird welfare and quality of poultry products

The PhD project was focused on the study of the poultry welfare conditions and improvements. The project work was divided into 3 main research activities. A) Field evaluation of chicken meat rearing conditions kept in intensive farms. Considering the lack of published reports concerning the overall Italian rearing conditions of broiler chickens, a survey was carried out to assess the welfare conditions of broiler reared in the most important poultry companies in Italy to verify if they are in accordance with the advices given in the European proposal COM (2005) 221 final. Chicken farm conditions, carcass lesions and meat quality were investigated. 1. The densities currently used in Italy are in accordance with the European proposal COM 221 final (2005) which suggests to keep broilers at a density lower than 30-32 kg live weight/m2 and to not exceed 38-40 kg live weight/m2. 2. The mortality rates in summer and winter agree with the mortality score calculated following the formula reported in the EU Proposal COM 221 final (2005). 3. The incidence of damaged carcasses was very low and did not seem related to the stocking density. 4. The FPD scores were generally above the maximum limit advised by the EU proposal COM 221 final (2005), although the stocking densities were lower than 30-32 kg live weight per m2. 5. It can be stated that the control of the environmental conditions, particularly litter quality, appears a key issue to control the onset of foot dermatitis. B) Manipulation of several farm parameters, such litter material and depth, stocking density and light regimen to improve the chicken welfare conditions, in winter season. 1. Even though 2 different stocking densities were established in this study, the performances achieved from the chickens were almost identical among groups. 2. The FCR was significantly better in Standard conditions contrarily to birds reared in Welfare conditions with lower stocking density, more litter material and with a light program of 16 hours light and 8 hours dark. 3. In our trial, in Standard groups we observed a higher content of moisture, nitrogen and ammonia released from the litter. Therefore it can be assumed that the environmental characteristics have been positively changed by the improvements of the rearing conditions adopted for Welfare groups. 4. In Welfare groups the exhausted litters of the pens were dryer and broilers showed a lower occurrence of FPD. 5. The prevalence of hock burn lesions, like FPD, is high with poor litter quality conditions. 6. The combined effect of a lower stocking density, a greater amount of litter material and a photoperiod similar to the natural one, have positively influenced the chickens welfare status, as a matter of fact the occurrence of FPD in Welfare groups was the lowest keeping the score under the European threshold of the proposal COM 221 final(2005). C) The purpose of the third research was to study the effect of high or low stocking density of broiler chickens, different types of litter and the adoption of short or long lighting regimen on broiler welfare through the evaluation of their productivity and incidence of foot pad dermatitis during the hot season. 1. The feed efficiency was better for the Low Density than for High Density broilers. 2. The appearance of FPD was not influenced by stocking density. 3. The foot examination revealed that the lesions occurred more in birds maintained on chopped wheat straw than on wood shaving. 4. In conclusion, the adoptions of a short light regimen similar to that occurring in nature during summer reduces the feed intake without modify the growth rate thus improving the feed efficiency. Foot pad lesion were not affected neither by stocking densities nor by light regimens whereas wood shavings exerted a favourable effect in preserving foot pad in good condition. D) A study was carried out to investigate more widely the possible role of 25-hydroxycholecalciferol supplemented in the diet of a laying hen commercial strain (Lohmann brown) in comparison of diets supplemented with D3 or with D3 + 25- hydroxycholecalciferol. Egg traits during a productive cycle as well as the bone characteristics of the layers have been as well evaluated to determine if there the vitamin D3 may enhance the welfare status of the birds. 1. The weight of the egg and of its components is often greater in hens fed a diet enriched with 25-hydroxycholecalciferol. 2. Since eggs of treated groups are heavier and a larger amount of shell is needed, a direct effect on shell strength is observed. 3. At 30 and at 50 wk of age hens fed 25 hydroxycholecalciferol exhibited greater values of bone breaking force. 4. Radiographic density values obtained in the trial are always higher in hens fed with 25-hydroxycholecalciferol of both treatments: supplemented for the whole laying cycle (25D3) or from 40 weeks of age onward (D3+25D3).

The port-Hamiltonian framework as a comprehensive approach to model and simulate complex systems

This thesis describes modelling tools and methods suited for complex systems (systems that typically are represented by a plurality of models). The basic idea is that all models representing the system should be linked by well-defined model operations in order to build a structured repository of information, a hierarchy of models. The port-Hamiltonian framework is a good candidate to solve this kind of problems as it supports the most important model operations natively. The thesis in particular addresses the problem of integrating distributed parameter systems in a model hierarchy, and shows two possible mechanisms to do that: a finite-element discretization in port-Hamiltonian form, and a structure-preserving model order reduction for discretized models obtainable from commercial finite-element packages.

Development of Clinical Decision Support Systems based on Mathematical Models of Physiological Systems

In the last years of research, I focused my studies on different physiological problems. Together with my supervisors, I developed/improved different mathematical models in order to create valid tools useful for a better understanding of important clinical issues. The aim of all this work is to develop tools for learning and understanding cardiac and cerebrovascular physiology as well as pathology, generating research questions and developing clinical decision support systems useful for intensive care unit patients. I. ICP-model Designed for Medical Education We developed a comprehensive cerebral blood flow and intracranial pressure model to simulate and study the complex interactions in cerebrovascular dynamics caused by multiple simultaneous alterations, including normal and abnormal functional states of auto-regulation of the brain. Individual published equations (derived from prior animal and human studies) were implemented into a comprehensive simulation program. Included in the normal physiological modelling was: intracranial pressure, cerebral blood flow, blood pressure, and carbon dioxide (CO2) partial pressure. We also added external and pathological perturbations, such as head up position and intracranial haemorrhage. The model performed clinically realistically given inputs of published traumatized patients, and cases encountered by clinicians. The pulsatile nature of the output graphics was easy for clinicians to interpret. The manoeuvres simulated include changes of basic physiological inputs (e.g. blood pressure, central venous pressure, CO2 tension, head up position, and respiratory effects on vascular pressures) as well as pathological inputs (e.g. acute intracranial bleeding, and obstruction of cerebrospinal outflow). Based on the results, we believe the model would be useful to teach complex relationships of brain haemodynamics and study clinical research questions such as the optimal head-up position, the effects of intracranial haemorrhage on cerebral haemodynamics, as well as the best CO2 concentration to reach the optimal compromise between intracranial pressure and perfusion. We believe this model would be useful for both beginners and advanced learners. It could be used by practicing clinicians to model individual patients (entering the effects of needed clinical manipulations, and then running the model to test for optimal combinations of therapeutic manoeuvres). II. A Heterogeneous Cerebrovascular Mathematical Model Cerebrovascular pathologies are extremely complex, due to the multitude of factors acting simultaneously on cerebral haemodynamics. In this work, the mathematical model of cerebral haemodynamics and intracranial pressure dynamics, described in the point I, is extended to account for heterogeneity in cerebral blood flow. The model includes the Circle of Willis, six regional districts independently regulated by autoregulation and CO2 reactivity, distal cortical anastomoses, venous circulation, the cerebrospinal fluid circulation, and the intracranial pressure-volume relationship. Results agree with data in the literature and highlight the existence of a monotonic relationship between transient hyperemic response and the autoregulation gain. During unilateral internal carotid artery stenosis, local blood flow regulation is progressively lost in the ipsilateral territory with the presence of a steal phenomenon, while the anterior communicating artery plays the major role to redistribute the available blood flow. Conversely, distal collateral circulation plays a major role during unilateral occlusion of the middle cerebral artery. In conclusion, the model is able to reproduce several different pathological conditions characterized by heterogeneity in cerebrovascular haemodynamics and can not only explain generalized results in terms of physiological mechanisms involved, but also, by individualizing parameters, may represent a valuable tool to help with difficult clinical decisions. III. Effect of Cushing Response on Systemic Arterial Pressure. During cerebral hypoxic conditions, the sympathetic system causes an increase in arterial pressure (Cushing response), creating a link between the cerebral and the systemic circulation. This work investigates the complex relationships among cerebrovascular dynamics, intracranial pressure, Cushing response, and short-term systemic regulation, during plateau waves, by means of an original mathematical model. The model incorporates the pulsating heart, the pulmonary circulation and the systemic circulation, with an accurate description of the cerebral circulation and the intracranial pressure dynamics (same model as in the first paragraph). Various regulatory mechanisms are included: cerebral autoregulation, local blood flow control by oxygen (O2) and/or CO2 changes, sympathetic and vagal regulation of cardiovascular parameters by several reflex mechanisms (chemoreceptors, lung-stretch receptors, baroreceptors). The Cushing response has been described assuming a dramatic increase in sympathetic activity to vessels during a fall in brain O2 delivery. With this assumption, the model is able to simulate the cardiovascular effects experimentally observed when intracranial pressure is artificially elevated and maintained at constant level (arterial pressure increase and bradicardia). According to the model, these effects arise from the interaction between the Cushing response and the baroreflex response (secondary to arterial pressure increase). Then, patients with severe head injury have been simulated by reducing intracranial compliance and cerebrospinal fluid reabsorption. With these changes, oscillations with plateau waves developed. In these conditions, model results indicate that the Cushing response may have both positive effects, reducing the duration of the plateau phase via an increase in cerebral perfusion pressure, and negative effects, increasing the intracranial pressure plateau level, with a risk of greater compression of the cerebral vessels. This model may be of value to assist clinicians in finding the balance between clinical benefits of the Cushing response and its shortcomings. IV. Comprehensive Cardiopulmonary Simulation Model for the Analysis of Hypercapnic Respiratory Failure We developed a new comprehensive cardiopulmonary model that takes into account the mutual interactions between the cardiovascular and the respiratory systems along with their short-term regulatory mechanisms. The model includes the heart, systemic and pulmonary circulations, lung mechanics, gas exchange and transport equations, and cardio-ventilatory control. Results show good agreement with published patient data in case of normoxic and hyperoxic hypercapnia simulations. In particular, simulations predict a moderate increase in mean systemic arterial pressure and heart rate, with almost no change in cardiac output, paralleled by a relevant increase in minute ventilation, tidal volume and respiratory rate. The model can represent a valid tool for clinical practice and medical research, providing an alternative way to experience-based clinical decisions. In conclusion, models are not only capable of summarizing current knowledge, but also identifying missing knowledge. In the former case they can serve as training aids for teaching the operation of complex systems, especially if the model can be used to demonstrate the outcome of experiments. In the latter case they generate experiments to be performed to gather the missing data.

Neutronics analyses for fast spectrum nuclear systems and scenario studies for advanced nuclear fuel cycles

The present PhD thesis summarizes the three-years study about the neutronic investigation of a new concept nuclear reactor aiming at the optimization and the sustainable management of nuclear fuel in a possible European scenario. A new generation nuclear reactor for the nuclear reinassance is indeed desired by the actual industrialized world, both for the solution of the energetic question arising from the continuously growing energy demand together with the corresponding reduction of oil availability, and the environment question for a sustainable energy source free from Long Lived Radioisotopes and therefore geological repositories. Among the Generation IV candidate typologies, the Lead Fast Reactor concept has been pursued, being the one top rated in sustainability. The European Lead-cooled SYstem (ELSY) has been at first investigated. The neutronic analysis of the ELSY core has been performed via deterministic analysis by means of the ERANOS code, in order to retrieve a stable configuration for the overall design of the reactor. Further analyses have been carried out by means of the Monte Carlo general purpose transport code MCNP, in order to check the former one and to define an exact model of the system. An innovative system of absorbers has been conceptualized and designed for both the reactivity compensation and regulation of the core due to cycle swing, as well as for safety in order to guarantee the cold shutdown of the system in case of accident. Aiming at the sustainability of nuclear energy, the steady-state nuclear equilibrium has been investigated and generalized into the definition of the ``extended'' equilibrium state. According to this, the Adiabatic Reactor Theory has been developed, together with a New Paradigm for Nuclear Power: in order to design a reactor that does not exchange with the environment anything valuable (thus the term ``adiabatic''), in the sense of both Plutonium and Minor Actinides, it is required indeed to revert the logical design scheme of nuclear cores, starting from the definition of the equilibrium composition of the fuel and submitting to the latter the whole core design. The New Paradigm has been applied then to the core design of an Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactor complying with the ELSY overall system layout. A complete core characterization has been done in order to asses criticality and power flattening; a preliminary evaluation of the main safety parameters has been also done to verify the viability of the system. Burn up calculations have been then performed in order to investigate the operating cycle for the Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactor; the fuel performances have been therefore extracted and inserted in a more general analysis for an European scenario. The present nuclear reactors fleet has been modeled and its evolution simulated by means of the COSI code in order to investigate the materials fluxes to be managed in the European region. Different plausible scenarios have been identified to forecast the evolution of the European nuclear energy production, including the one involving the introduction of Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactors, and compared to better analyze the advantages introduced by the adoption of new concept reactors. At last, since both ELSY and the ALFR represent new concept systems based upon innovative solutions, the neutronic design of a demonstrator reactor has been carried out: such a system is intended to prove the viability of technology to be implemented in the First-of-a-Kind industrial power plant, with the aim at attesting the general strategy to use, to the largest extent. It was chosen then to base the DEMO design upon a compromise between demonstration of developed technology and testing of emerging technology in order to significantly subserve the purpose of reducing uncertainties about construction and licensing, both validating ELSY/ALFR main features and performances, and to qualify numerical codes and tools.

Neuroprotective strategies against neurodegeneration in cellular model systems

In the present study we analyzed new neuroprotective therapeutical strategies in PD (Parkinson’s disease) and AD (Alzheimer’s disease). Current therapeutic strategies for treating PD and AD offer mainly transient symptomatic relief but it is still impossible to block the loss of neuron and then the progression of PD and AD. There is considerable consensus that the increased production and/or aggregation of α- synuclein (α-syn) and β-amyloid peptide (Aβ), plays a central role in the pathogenesis of PD, related synucleinopathies and AD. Therefore, we identified antiamyloidogenic compounds and we tested their effect as neuroprotective drug-like molecules against α-syn and β-amyloid cytotoxicity in PC12. Herein, we show that two nitro-catechol compounds (entacapone and tolcapone) and 5 cathecol-containing compounds (dopamine, pyrogallol, gallic acid, caffeic acid and quercetin) with antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, are potent inhibitors of α-syn and β-amyloid oligomerization and fibrillization. Subsequently, we show that the inhibition of α-syn and β-amyloid oligomerization and fibrillization is correlated with the neuroprotection of these compounds against the α-syn and β-amyloid-induced cytotoxicity in PC12. Finally, we focused on the study of the neuroprotective role of microglia and on the possibility that the neuroprotection properties of these cells could be use as therapeutical strategy in PD and AD. Here, we have used an in vitro model to demonstrate neuroprotection of a 48 h-microglial conditioned medium (MCM) towards cerebellar granule neurons (CGNs) challenged with the neurotoxin 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA), which induces a Parkinson-like neurodegeneration, with Aβ42, which induces a Alzheimer-like neurodegeneration, and glutamate, involved in the major neurodegenerative diseases. We show that MCM nearly completely protects CGNs from 6-OHDA neurotoxicity, partially from glutamate excitotoxicity but not from Aβ42 toxin.

Model predictive flight control systems for rotorcraft UAS

Constraints are widely present in the flight control problems: actuators saturations or flight envelope limitations are only some examples of that. The ability of Model Predictive Control (MPC) of dealing with the constraints joined with the increased computational power of modern calculators makes this approach attractive also for fast dynamics systems such as agile air vehicles. This PhD thesis presents the results, achieved at the Aerospace Engineering Department of the University of Bologna in collaboration with the Dutch National Aerospace Laboratories (NLR), concerning the development of a model predictive control system for small scale rotorcraft UAS. Several different predictive architectures have been evaluated and tested by means of simulation, as a result of this analysis the most promising one has been used to implement three different control systems: a Stability and Control Augmentation System, a trajectory tracking and a path following system. The systems have been compared with a corresponding baseline controller and showed several advantages in terms of performance, stability and robustness.

Model predictive control in thermal management of multiprocessor systems-on-chip

MultiProcessor Systems-on-Chip (MPSoC) are the core of nowadays and next generation computing platforms. Their relevance in the global market continuously increase, occupying an important role both in everydaylife products (e.g. smartphones, tablets, laptops, cars) and in strategical market sectors as aviation, defense, robotics, medicine. Despite of the incredible performance improvements in the recent years processors manufacturers have had to deal with issues, commonly called “Walls”, that have hindered the processors development. After the famous “Power Wall”, that limited the maximum frequency of a single core and marked the birth of the modern multiprocessors system-on-chip, the “Thermal Wall” and the “Utilization Wall” are the actual key limiter for performance improvements. The former concerns the damaging effects of the high temperature on the chip caused by the large power densities dissipation, whereas the second refers to the impossibility of fully exploiting the computing power of the processor due to the limitations on power and temperature budgets. In this thesis we faced these challenges by developing efficient and reliable solutions able to maximize performance while limiting the maximum temperature below a fixed critical threshold and saving energy. This has been possible by exploiting the Model Predictive Controller (MPC) paradigm that solves an optimization problem subject to constraints in order to find the optimal control decisions for the future interval. A fully-distributedMPC-based thermal controller with a far lower complexity respect to a centralized one has been developed. The control feasibility and interesting properties for the simplification of the control design has been proved by studying a partial differential equation thermal model. Finally, the controller has been efficiently included in more complex control schemes able to minimize energy consumption and deal with mixed-criticalities tasks