Fighting corruption with pyramids: A Law and Economics approach to combating corruption in post-socialist countries

Corruption is, in the last two decades, considered as one of the biggest problems within the international community, which harms not only a particular state or society but the whole world. The discussion on corruption in law and economics approach is mainly run under the veil of Public choice theory and principal-agent model. Based on this approach the strong international initiatives taken by the UN, the OECD and the Council of Europe, provided various measures and tools in order to support and guide countries in their combat against corruption. These anti-corruption policies created a repression -prevention-transparency model for corruption combat. Applying this model, countries around the world adopted anti-corruption strategies as part of their legal rules. Nevertheless, the recent researches on the effects of this move show non impressive results. Critics argue that “one size does not fit all” because the institutional setting of countries around the world varies. Among the countries which experience problems of corruption, even though they follow the dominant anti-corruption trends, are transitional, post-socialist countries. To this group belong the countries which are emerging from centrally planned to an open market economy. The socialist past left traces on institutional setting, mentality of the individuals and their interrelation, particularly in the domain of public administration. If the idiosyncrasy of these countries is taken into account the suggestion in this thesis is that in public administration in post-socialist countries, instead of dominant anti-corruption scheme repression-prevention-transparency, corruption combat should be improved through the implementation of a new one, structure-conduct-performance. The implementation of this model is based on three regulatory pyramids: anti-corruption, disciplinary anti-corruption and criminal anti-corruption pyramid. This approach asks public administration itself to engage in corruption combat, leaving criminal justice system as the ultimate weapon, used only for the very harmful misdeeds.

Quantum Integrability in Non-Linear Sigma Models related to Gauge/String Correspondences

The Thermodynamic Bethe Ansatz analysis is carried out for the extended-CP^N class of integrable 2-dimensional Non-Linear Sigma Models related to the low energy limit of the AdS_4xCP^3 type IIA superstring theory. The principal aim of this program is to obtain further non-perturbative consistency check to the S-matrix proposed to describe the scattering processes between the fundamental excitations of the theory by analyzing the structure of the Renormalization Group flow. As a noteworthy byproduct we eventually obtain a novel class of TBA models which fits in the known classification but with several important differences. The TBA framework allows the evaluation of some exact quantities related to the conformal UV limit of the model: effective central charge, conformal dimension of the perturbing operator and field content of the underlying CFT. The knowledge of this physical quantities has led to the possibility of conjecturing a perturbed CFT realization of the integrable models in terms of coset Kac-Moody CFT. The set of numerical tools and programs developed ad hoc to solve the problem at hand is also discussed in some detail with references to the code.

Multi-Principal Agency and the Compliance with Professional Guidelines in Health Systems: Economic and Regulatory Perspectives

Amid the trend of rising health expenditure in developed economies, changing the healthcare delivery models is an important point of action for service regulators to contain this trend. Such a change is mostly induced by either financial incentives or regulatory tools issued by the regulators and targeting service providers and patients. This creates a tripartite interaction between service regulators, professionals, and patients that manifests a multi-principal agent relationship, in which professionals are agents to two principals: regulators and patients. This thesis is concerned with such a multi-principal agent relationship in healthcare and attempts to investigate the determinants of the (non-)compliance to regulatory tools in light of this tripartite relationship. In addition, the thesis provides insights into the different institutional, economic, and regulatory settings, which govern the multi-principal agent relationship in healthcare in different countries. Furthermore, the thesis provides and empirically tests a conceptual framework of the possible determinants of (non-)compliance by physicians to regulatory tools issued by the regulator. The main findings of the thesis are first, in a multi-principal agent setting, the utilization of financial incentives to align the objectives of professionals and the regulator is important but not the only solution. This finding is based on the heterogeneity in the financial incentives provided to professionals in different health markets, which does not provide a one-size-fits-all model of financial incentives to influence clinical decisions. Second, soft law tools as clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) are important tools to mitigate the problems of the multi-principal agent setting in health markets as they reduce information asymmetries while preserving the autonomy of professionals. Third, CPGs are complex and heterogeneous and so are the determinants of (non-)compliance to them. Fourth, CPGs work but under conditions. Factors such as intra-professional competition between service providers or practitioners might lead to non-compliance to CPGs – if CPGs are likely to reduce the professional’s utility. Finally, different degrees of soft law mandate have different effects on providers’ compliance. Generally, the stronger the mandate, the stronger the compliance, however, even with a strong mandate, drivers such as intra-professional competition and co-management of patients by different professionals affected the (non-)compliance.

Shareholder protection and stock market development

The dissertation contains five parts: An introduction, three major chapters, and a short conclusion. The First Chapter starts from a survey and discussion of the studies on corporate law and financial development literature. The commonly used methods in these cross-sectional analyses are biased as legal origins are no longer valid instruments. Hence, the model uncertainty becomes a salient problem. The Bayesian Model Averaging algorithm is applied to test the robustness of empirical results in Djankov et al. (2008). The analysis finds that their constructed legal index is not robustly correlated with most of the various stock market outcome variables. The second Chapter looks into the effects of minority shareholders protection in corporate governance regime on entrepreneurs' ex ante incentives to undertake IPO. Most of the current literature focuses on the beneficial part of minority shareholder protection on valuation, while overlooks its private costs on entrepreneur's control. As a result, the entrepreneur trade-offs the costs of monitoring with the benefits of cheap sources of finance when minority shareholder protection improves. The theoretical predictions are empirically tested using panel data and GMM-sys estimator. The third Chapter investigates the corporate law and corporate governance reform in China. The corporate law in China regards shareholder control as the means to the ends of pursuing the interests of stakeholders, which is inefficient. The Chapter combines the recent development of theories of the firm, i.e., the team production theory and the property rights theory, to solve such problem. The enlightened shareholder value, which emphasizes on the long term valuation of the firm, should be adopted as objectives of listed firms. In addition, a move from the mandatory division of power between shareholder meeting and board meeting to the default regime, is proposed.

Regulating State Aid: Inter-jurisdictional competition, public choice, and corporate governance

Depending on the regulatory regime they are subject to, governments may or may not be allowed to hand out state aid to private firms. The economic justification for state aid can address several issues present in the competition for capital and the competition for transfers from the state. First, there are principal-agent problems involved at several stages. Self-interested politicians might enter state aid deals that are the result of extensive rent-seeking activities of organized interest groups. Thus the institutional design of political systems will have an effect on the propensity of a jurisdiction to award state aid. Secondly, fierce competition for firm locations can lead to over-spending. This effect is stronger if the politicians do not take into account the entirety of the costs created by their participation in the firm location race. Thirdly, state aid deals can be incomplete and not in the interest of the citizens. This applies if there are no sanctions if firms do not meet their obligations from receiving aid, such as creating a certain number of jobs or not relocating again for a certain amount of time. The separation of ownership and control in modern corporations leads to principal-agent problems on the side of the aid recipient as well. Managers might receive personal benefits from subsidies, the use of which is sometimes less monitored than private finance. This can eventually be to the detriment of the shareholders. Overall, it can be concluded that state aid control should also serve the purpose of regulating the contracting between governments and firms. An extended mandate for supervision by the European Commission could include requirements to disincentive the misuse of state aid. The Commission should also focus on the corporate governance regime in place in the jurisdiction that awards the aid as well as in the recipient firm.

Regulating FinTech: The perspectives of law, economics, and technology

FinTech (financial technology, ‘‘FinTech’’) is a double-edged sword as it brings both benefits and risks. This study appraised FinTech’s technological nature that brings changes in complexity in modern financial markets to identify the information deficits and its undesirable outcomes. Besides, as FinTech is still developing, the information regarding, for instance, whether and how to apply regulation may be insufficient for both regulators and those regulated. More one-size-fits-all regulation might accordingly be adopted, thereby resulting in the adverse selection. Through the lens of both law and economics and law and technology, this study suggested AFR (adaptive financial regulation, ‘‘AFR’’) of FinTech to solve the underlying pacing issue. AFR is dynamic, enabling regulatory adjustments and learning. Exploring and collecting information through experiments and learning from experiments are the core of AFR. FinTech regulatory sandboxes epitomize AFR. This study chose Taiwan as a case study. This study found several barriers to adaptive and effective FinTech regulation. Unduly emphasizing consumer protection and the innovation entry criterion by improperly imposing limits on the entry into sandboxes, ignoring post-sandbox mechanisms, and relying on detailed, specific and prescriptive rules to formulate sandboxes are examples. To solve these barriers, this study proposed several solutions by looking into the experiences in other jurisdictions and analyzing. First, striking a balance between encouraging innovation and ensuring financial stability and consumer protection is indispensable. Second, entry to sandboxes should be facilitated by improving the selection criteria. Third, adhering to realizing regulatory adjustment and learning to adapt regulation to technology, this study argued that systematic post-sandbox mechanisms should be established. Fourth, this study recommended “more principles-based sandboxes”. Principles rather than rules should be the base on which sandboxes or FinTech regulation are established. Having principles could provide more flexibility, being easier to adjust and adapt, and better at avoiding.

Essays in nonlinear pricing and rent seeking

This thesis consists of three self-contained essays on nonlinear pricing and rent-seeking. In the first chapter of the thesis, I provide new theoretical insights about non-linear pricing in monopoly and common agency by combining the principal-agent framework with other-regarding preferences. I introduce a new theoretical model that separately characterizes status-seeker and inequity-averse buyers. I show how the buyer’s optimal choice of quality and market inefficiency change when the buyer has other-regarding preferences. In the second chapter, I find the optimal productive rent-seeking and sabotaging efforts when the prize is endogenous. I show that due to the existence of endogeneity, sabotaging the productive rent-seeking efforts causes sabotaging the endogenous part of the prize, which can affect the rent-seeking efforts. Moreover, I introduce social preferences into my model and characterize symmetric productive rent-seeking and sabotaging efforts. In the last chapter, I propose a new theoretical model regarding information disclosure with Bayesian persuasion in rent-seeking contests when the efforts are productive. I show that under one-sided incomplete information, information disclosure decision depends on both the marginal costs of efforts and the marginal benefit of aggregate exerted effort. I find that since the efforts are productive and add a positive surplus on the fixed rent, my model narrows down the conditions for the information disclosure compared to the exogenous model. Under the two-sided incomplete information case, I observe that there is a non-monotone relationship between optimal effort and posterior beliefs. Thus, it might be difficult to conclude whether a contest organizer should disclose any information to contestants.

Impatto di rifaximina sul microbiota intestinale: selezione di bifidobatteri antibiotico resistenti

The ideal approach for the long term treatment of intestinal disorders, such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), is represented by a safe and well tolerated therapy able to reduce mucosal inflammation and maintain homeostasis of the intestinal microbiota. A combined therapy with antimicrobial agents, to reduce antigenic load, and immunomodulators, to ameliorate the dysregulated responses, followed by probiotic supplementation has been proposed. Because of the complementary mechanisms of action of antibiotics and probiotics, a combined therapeutic approach would give advantages in terms of enlargement of the antimicrobial spectrum, due to the barrier effect of probiotic bacteria, and limitation of some side effects of traditional chemiotherapy (i.e. indiscriminate decrease of aggressive and protective intestinal bacteria, altered absorption of nutrient elements, allergic and inflammatory reactions). Rifaximin (4-deoxy-4’-methylpyrido[1’,2’-1,2]imidazo[5,4-c]rifamycin SV) is a product of synthesis experiments designed to modify the parent compound, rifamycin, in order to achieve low gastrointestinal absorption while retaining good antibacterial activity. Both experimental and clinical pharmacology clearly show that this compound is a non systemic antibiotic with a broad spectrum of antibacterial action, covering Gram-positive and Gram-negative organisms, both aerobes and anaerobes. Being virtually non absorbed, its bioavailability within the gastrointestinal tract is rather high with intraluminal and faecal drug concentrations that largely exceed the MIC values observed in vitro against a wide range of pathogenic microorganisms. The gastrointestinal tract represents therefore the primary therapeutic target and gastrointestinal infections the main indication. The little value of rifaximin outside the enteric area minimizes both antimicrobial resistance and systemic adverse events. Fermented dairy products enriched with probiotic bacteria have developed into one of the most successful categories of functional foods. Probiotics are defined as “live microorganisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer a health benefit on the host” (FAO/WHO, 2002), and mainly include Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium species. Probiotic bacteria exert a direct effect on the intestinal microbiota of the host and contribute to organoleptic, rheological and nutritional properties of food. Administration of pharmaceutical probiotic formula has been associated with therapeutic effects in treatment of diarrhoea, constipation, flatulence, enteropathogens colonization, gastroenteritis, hypercholesterolemia, IBD, such as ulcerative colitis (UC), Crohn’s disease, pouchitis and irritable bowel syndrome. Prerequisites for probiotics are to be effective and safe. The characteristics of an effective probiotic for gastrointestinal tract disorders are tolerance to upper gastrointestinal environment (resistance to digestion by enteric or pancreatic enzymes, gastric acid and bile), adhesion on intestinal surface to lengthen the retention time, ability to prevent the adherence, establishment and/or replication of pathogens, production of antimicrobial substances, degradation of toxic catabolites by bacterial detoxifying enzymatic activities, and modulation of the host immune responses. This study was carried out using a validated three-stage fermentative continuous system and it is aimed to investigate the effect of rifaximin on the colonic microbial flora of a healthy individual, in terms of bacterial composition and production of fermentative metabolic end products. Moreover, this is the first study that investigates in vitro the impact of the simultaneous administration of the antibiotic rifaximin and the probiotic B. lactis BI07 on the intestinal microbiota. Bacterial groups of interest were evaluated using culture-based methods and molecular culture-independent techniques (FISH, PCR-DGGE). Metabolic outputs in terms of SCFA profiles were determined by HPLC analysis. Collected data demonstrated that rifaximin as well as antibiotic and probiotic treatment did not change drastically the intestinal microflora, whereas bacteria belonging to Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus significantly increase over the course of the treatment, suggesting a spontaneous upsurge of rifaximin resistance. These results are in agreement with a previous study, in which it has been demonstrated that rifaximin administration in patients with UC, affects the host with minor variations of the intestinal microflora, and that the microbiota is restored over a wash-out period. In particular, several Bifidobacterium rifaximin resistant mutants could be isolated during the antibiotic treatment, but they disappeared after the antibiotic suspension. Furthermore, bacteria belonging to Atopobium spp. and E. rectale/Clostridium cluster XIVa increased significantly after rifaximin and probiotic treatment. Atopobium genus and E. rectale/Clostridium cluster XIVa are saccharolytic, butyrate-producing bacteria, and for these characteristics they are widely considered health-promoting microorganisms. The absence of major variations in the intestinal microflora of a healthy individual and the significant increase in probiotic and health-promoting bacteria concentrations support the rationale of the administration of rifaximin as efficacious and non-dysbiosis promoting therapy and suggest the efficacy of an antibiotic/probiotic combined treatment in several gut pathologies, such as IBD. To assess the use of an antibiotic/probiotic combination for clinical management of intestinal disorders, genetic, proteomic and physiologic approaches were employed to elucidate molecular mechanisms determining rifaximin resistance in Bifidobacterium, and the expected interactions occurring in the gut between these bacteria and the drug. The ability of an antimicrobial agent to select resistance is a relevant factor that affects its usefulness and may diminish its useful life. Rifaximin resistance phenotype was easily acquired by all bifidobacteria analyzed [type strains of the most representative intestinal bifidobacterial species (B. infantis, B. breve, B. longum, B. adolescentis and B. bifidum) and three bifidobacteria included in a pharmaceutical probiotic preparation (B. lactis BI07, B. breve BBSF and B. longum BL04)] and persisted for more than 400 bacterial generations in the absence of selective pressure. Exclusion of any reversion phenomenon suggested two hypotheses: (i) stable and immobile genetic elements encode resistance; (ii) the drug moiety does not act as an inducer of the resistance phenotype, but enables selection of resistant mutants. Since point mutations in rpoB have been indicated as representing the principal factor determining rifampicin resistance in E. coli and M. tuberculosis, whether a similar mechanism also occurs in Bifidobacterium was verified. The analysis of a 129 bp rpoB core region of several wild-type and resistant bifidobacteria revealed five different types of miss-sense mutations in codons 513, 516, 522 and 529. Position 529 was a novel mutation site, not previously described, and position 522 appeared interesting for both the double point substitutions and the heterogeneous profile of nucleotide changes. The sequence heterogeneity of codon 522 in Bifidobacterium leads to hypothesize an indirect role of its encoded amino acid in the binding with the rifaximin moiety. These results demonstrated the chromosomal nature of rifaximin resistance in Bifidobacterium, minimizing risk factors for horizontal transmission of resistance elements between intestinal microbial species. Further proteomic and physiologic investigations were carried out using B. lactis BI07, component of a pharmaceutical probiotic preparation, as a model strain. The choice of this strain was determined based on the following elements: (i) B. lactis BI07 is able to survive and persist in the gut; (ii) a proteomic overview of this strain has been recently reported. The involvement of metabolic changes associated with rifaximin resistance was investigated by proteomic analysis performed with two-dimensional electrophoresis and mass spectrometry. Comparative proteomic mapping of BI07-wt and BI07-res revealed that most differences in protein expression patterns were genetically encoded rather than induced by antibiotic exposure. In particular, rifaximin resistance phenotype was characterized by increased expression levels of stress proteins. Overexpression of stress proteins was expected, as they represent a common non specific response by bacteria when stimulated by different shock conditions, including exposure to toxic agents like heavy metals, oxidants, acids, bile salts and antibiotics. Also, positive transcription regulators were found to be overexpressed in BI07-res, suggesting that bacteria could activate compensatory mechanisms to assist the transcription process in the presence of RNA polymerase inhibitors. Other differences in expression profiles were related to proteins involved in central metabolism; these modifications suggest metabolic disadvantages of resistant mutants in comparison with sensitive bifidobacteria in the gut environment, without selective pressure, explaining their disappearance from faeces of patients with UC after interruption of antibiotic treatment. The differences observed between BI07-wt e BI07-res proteomic patterns, as well as the high frequency of silent mutations reported for resistant mutants of Bifidobacterium could be the consequences of an increased mutation rate, mechanism which may lead to persistence of resistant bacteria in the population. However, the in vivo disappearance of resistant mutants in absence of selective pressure, allows excluding the upsurge of compensatory mutations without loss of resistance. Furthermore, the proteomic characterization of the resistant phenotype suggests that rifaximin resistance is associated with a reduced bacterial fitness in B. lactis BI07-res, supporting the hypothesis of a biological cost of antibiotic resistance in Bifidobacterium. The hypothesis of rifaximin inactivation by bacterial enzymatic activities was verified by using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. Neither chemical modifications nor degradation derivatives of the rifaximin moiety were detected. The exclusion of a biodegradation pattern for the drug was further supported by the quantitative recovery in BI07-res culture fractions of the total rifaximin amount (100 μg/ml) added to the culture medium. To confirm the main role of the mutation on the β chain of RNA polymerase in rifaximin resistance acquisition, transcription activity of crude enzymatic extracts of BI07-res cells was evaluated. Although the inhibition effects of rifaximin on in vitro transcription were definitely higher for BI07-wt than for BI07-res, a partial resistance of the mutated RNA polymerase at rifaximin concentrations > 10 μg/ml was supposed, on the basis of the calculated differences in inhibition percentages between BI07-wt and BI07-res. By considering the resistance of entire BI07-res cells to rifaximin concentrations > 100 μg/ml, supplementary resistance mechanisms may take place in vivo. A barrier for the rifaximin uptake in BI07-res cells was suggested in this study, on the basis of the major portion of the antibiotic found to be bound to the cellular pellet respect to the portion recovered in the cellular lysate. Related to this finding, a resistance mechanism involving changes of membrane permeability was supposed. A previous study supports this hypothesis, demonstrating the involvement of surface properties and permeability in natural resistance to rifampicin in mycobacteria, isolated from cases of human infection, which possessed a rifampicin-susceptible RNA polymerase. To understand the mechanism of membrane barrier, variations in percentage of saturated and unsaturated FAs and their methylation products in BI07-wt and BI07-res membranes were investigated. While saturated FAs confer rigidity to membrane and resistance to stress agents, such as antibiotics, a high level of lipid unsaturation is associated with high fluidity and susceptibility to stresses. Thus, the higher percentage of saturated FAs during the stationary phase of BI07-res could represent a defence mechanism of mutant cells to prevent the antibiotic uptake. Furthermore, the increase of CFAs such as dihydrosterculic acid during the stationary phase of BI07-res suggests that this CFA could be more suitable than its isomer lactobacillic acid to interact with and prevent the penetration of exogenous molecules including rifaximin. Finally, the impact of rifaximin on immune regulatory functions of the gut was evaluated. It has been suggested a potential anti-inflammatory effect of rifaximin, with reduced secretion of IFN-γ in a rodent model of colitis. Analogously, it has been reported a significant decrease in IL-8, MCP-1, MCP-3 e IL-10 levels in patients affected by pouchitis, treated with a combined therapy of rifaximin and ciprofloxacin. Since rifaximin enables in vivo and in vitro selection of Bifidobacterium resistant mutants with high frequency, the immunomodulation activities of rifaximin associated with a B. lactis resistant mutant were also taken into account. Data obtained from PBMC stimulation experiments suggest the following conclusions: (i) rifaximin does not exert any effect on production of IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-10, whereas it weakly stimulates production of TNF-α; (ii) B. lactis appears as a good inducer of IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α; (iii) combination of BI07-res and rifaximin exhibits a lower stimulation effect than BI07-res alone, especially for IL-6. These results confirm the potential anti-inflammatory effect of rifaximin, and are in agreement with several studies that report a transient pro-inflammatory response associated with probiotic administration. The understanding of the molecular factors determining rifaximin resistance in the genus Bifidobacterium assumes an applicative significance at pharmaceutical and medical level, as it represents the scientific basis to justify the simultaneous use of the antibiotic rifaximin and probiotic bifidobacteria in the clinical treatment of intestinal disorders.

A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

Model selection and the vectorial misspecification-resistant information criterion in multivariate time series

The thesis deals with the problem of Model Selection (MS) motivated by information and prediction theory, focusing on parametric time series (TS) models. The main contribution of the thesis is the extension to the multivariate case of the Misspecification-Resistant Information Criterion (MRIC), a criterion introduced recently that solves Akaike’s original research problem posed 50 years ago, which led to the definition of the AIC. The importance of MS is witnessed by the huge amount of literature devoted to it and published in scientific journals of many different disciplines. Despite such a widespread treatment, the contributions that adopt a mathematically rigorous approach are not so numerous and one of the aims of this project is to review and assess them. Chapter 2 discusses methodological aspects of MS from information theory. Information criteria (IC) for the i.i.d. setting are surveyed along with their asymptotic properties; and the cases of small samples, misspecification, further estimators. Chapter 3 surveys criteria for TS. IC and prediction criteria are considered for: univariate models (AR, ARMA) in the time and frequency domain, parametric multivariate (VARMA, VAR); nonparametric nonlinear (NAR); and high-dimensional models. The MRIC answers Akaike’s original question on efficient criteria, for possibly-misspecified (PM) univariate TS models in multi-step prediction with high-dimensional data and nonlinear models. Chapter 4 extends the MRIC to PM multivariate TS models for multi-step prediction introducing the Vectorial MRIC (VMRIC). We show that the VMRIC is asymptotically efficient by proving the decomposition of the MSPE matrix and the consistency of its Method-of-Moments Estimator (MoME), for Least Squares multi-step prediction with univariate regressor. Chapter 5 extends the VMRIC to the general multiple regressor case, by showing that the MSPE matrix decomposition holds, obtaining consistency for its MoME, and proving its efficiency. The chapter concludes with a digression on the conditions for PM VARX models.