Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Essays on Atypicality: A narrative perspective to illuminate how atypical actors can counter the disciplining effect of categories

Using Big Data and Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools, this dissertation investigates the narrative strategies that atypical actors can leverage to deal with the adverse reactions they often elicit. Extensive research shows that atypical actors, those who fail to abide by established contextual standards and norms, are subject to skepticism and face a higher risk of rejection. Indeed, atypical actors combine features and behaviors in unconventional ways, thereby generating confusion in the audience and instilling doubts about their propositions' legitimacy. However, the same atypicality is often cited as the precursor to socio-cultural innovation and a strategic act to expand the capacity for delivering valued goods and services. Contextualizing the conditions under which atypicality is celebrated or punished has been a significant theoretical challenge for scholars interested in reconciling this tension. Nevertheless, prior work has focused on audience side factors or on actor-side characteristics that are only scantily under an actor's control (e.g., status and reputation). This dissertation demonstrates that atypical actors can use strategically crafted narratives to mitigate against the audience’s negative response. In particular, when atypical actors evoke conventional features in their story, they are more likely to overcome the illegitimacy discount usually applied to them. Moreover, narratives become successful navigational devices for atypicality when atypical actors use a more abstract language. This simplifies classification and provides the audience with more flexibility to interpret and understand them.