Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

The Integrated European Project "GEHA - GEnetics of Healthy Aging": recruitment, health status assessment and survival of the Italian 90+ sibpairs

The present study is part of the EU Integrated Project “GEHA – Genetics of Healthy Aging” (Franceschi C et al., Ann N Y Acad Sci. 1100: 21-45, 2007), whose aim is to identify genes involved in healthy aging and longevity, which allow individuals to survive to advanced age in good cognitive and physical function and in the absence of major age-related diseases. Aims The major aims of this thesis were the following: 1. to outline the recruitment procedure of 90+ Italian siblings performed by the recruiting units of the University of Bologna (UNIBO) and Rome (ISS). The procedures related to the following items necessary to perform the study were described and commented: identification of the eligible area for recruitment, demographic aspects related to the need of getting census lists of 90+siblings, mail and phone contact with 90+ subjects and their families, bioethics aspects of the whole procedure, standardization of the recruitment methodology and set-up of a detailed flow chart to be followed by the European recruitment centres (obtainment of the informed consent form, anonimization of data by using a special code, how to perform the interview, how to collect the blood, how to enter data in the GEHA Phenotypic Data Base hosted at Odense). 2. to provide an overview of the phenotypic characteristics of 90+ Italian siblings recruited by the recruiting units of the University of Bologna (UNIBO) and Rome (ISS). The following items were addressed: socio-demographic characteristics, health status, cognitive assessment, physical conditions (handgrip strength test, chair-stand test, physical ability including ADL, vision and hearing ability, movement ability and doing light housework), life-style information (smoking and drinking habits) and subjective well-being (attitude towards life). Moreover, haematological parameters collected in the 90+ sibpairs as optional parameters by the Bologna and Rome recruiting units were used for a more comprehensive evaluation of the results obtained using the above mentioned phenotypic characteristics reported in the GEHA questionnaire. 3. to assess 90+ Italian siblings as far as their health/functional status is concerned on the basis of three classification methods proposed in previous studies on centenarians, which are based on: • actual functional capabilities (ADL, SMMSE, visual and hearing abilities) (Gondo et al., J Gerontol. 61A (3): 305-310, 2006); • actual functional capabilities and morbidity (ADL, ability to walk, SMMSE, presence of cancer, ictus, renal failure, anaemia, and liver diseases) (Franceschi et al., Aging Clin Exp Res, 12:77-84, 2000); • retrospectively collected data about past history of morbidity and age of disease onset (hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, stroke, cancer, osteopororis, neurological diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and ocular diseases) (Evert et al., J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 58A (3): 232-237, 2003). Firstly these available models to define the health status of long-living subjects were applied to the sample and, since the classifications by Gondo and Franceschi are both based on the present functional status, they were compared in order to better recognize the healthy aging phenotype and to identify the best group of 90+ subjects out of the entire studied population. 4. to investigate the concordance of health and functional status among 90+ siblings in order to divide sibpairs in three categories: the best (both sibs are in good shape), the worst (both sibs are in bad shape) and an intermediate group (one sib is in good shape and the other is in bad shape). Moreover, the evaluation wanted to discover which variables are concordant among siblings; thus, concordant variables could be considered as familiar variables (determined by the environment or by genetics). 5. to perform a survival analysis by using mortality data at 1st January 2009 from the follow-up as the main outcome and selected functional and clinical parameters as explanatory variables. Methods A total of 765 90+ Italian subjects recruited by UNIBO (549 90+ siblings, belonging to 258 families) and ISS (216 90+ siblings, belonging to 106 families) recruiting units are included in the analysis. Each subject was interviewed according to a standardized questionnaire, comprising extensively utilized questions that have been validated in previous European studies on elderly subjects and covering demographic information, life style, living conditions, cognitive status (SMMSE), mood, health status and anthropometric measurements. Moreover, subjects were asked to perform some physical tests (Hand Grip Strength test and Chair Standing test) and a sample of about 24 mL of blood was collected and then processed according to a common protocol for the preparation and storage of DNA aliquots. Results From the analysis the main findings are the following: - a standardized protocol to assess cognitive status, physical performances and health status of European nonagenarian subjects was set up, in respect to ethical requirements, and it is available as a reference for other studies in this field; - GEHA families are enriched in long-living members and extreme survival, and represent an appropriate model for the identification of genes involved in healthy aging and longevity; - two simplified sets of criteria to classify 90+ sibling according to their health status were proposed, as operational tools for distinguishing healthy from non healthy subjects; - cognitive and functional parameters have a major role in categorizing 90+ siblings for the health status; - parameters such as education and good physical abilities (500 metres walking ability, going up and down the stairs ability, high scores at hand grip and chair stand tests) are associated with a good health status (defined as “cognitive unimpairment and absence of disability”); - male nonagenarians show a more homogeneous phenotype than females, and, though far fewer in number, tend to be healthier than females; - in males the good health status is not protective for survival, confirming the male-female health survival paradox; - survival after age 90 was dependent mainly on intact cognitive status and absence of functional disabilities; - haemoglobin and creatinine levels are both associated with longevity; - the most concordant items among 90+ siblings are related to the functional status, indicating that they contain a familiar component. It is still to be investigated at what level this familiar component is determined by genetics or by environment or by the interaction between genetics, environment and chance (and at what level). Conclusions In conclusion, we could state that this study, in accordance with the main objectives of the whole GEHA project, represents one of the first attempt to identify the biological and non biological determinants of successful/unsuccessful aging and longevity. Here, the analysis was performed on 90+ siblings recruited in Northern and Central Italy and it could be used as a reference for others studies in this field on Italian population. Moreover, it contributed to the definition of “successful” and “unsuccessful” aging and categorising a very large cohort of our most elderly subjects into “successful” and “unsuccessful” groups provided an unrivalled opportunity to detect some of the basic genetic/molecular mechanisms which underpin good health as opposed to chronic disability. Discoveries in the topic of the biological determinants of healthy aging represent a real possibility to identify new markers to be utilized for the identification of subgroups of old European citizens having a higher risk to develop age-related diseases and disabilities and to direct major preventive medicine strategies for the new epidemic of chronic disease in the 21st century.

Classificazione su base molecolare dei tumori mammari della cagna mediante metodica immunoistochimica

Background. A new classification system of human breast tumours based on the immunohistochemical characterization has been applied to mammary tumours of the female dog with the aim to verify its association with invasion and grade, and prognostic aid in veterinary medicine. Methods. Forty-five canine mammary carcinomas with a two-year post-mastectomy follow-up were selected from our database, and the following antibodies were applied: anti-cytokeratines 14, 5/6, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and ERB-B2. . The tumours were grouped for phenotype as: luminal-like (ER+ and/or PR+, CK14-, CK5/6-) type A (ERB-B2-), and B (ERB-B2+); basal-like (ER-, PR-, CK14+ and/or CK5/6+, ERB-B2-); ERB-B2 (ER-, PR-, CK14-, CK5/6-, ERB-B2+). Association with invasion, grade and histotypes were evaluated and Kaplan-Meier survival curves estimated, then compared by survival analysis. Results. Thirty-five cases with luminal pattern (ER+ and PR+) were subgrouped into 13 A type and 22 B type, if ERB-B2 positive or negative . Most luminal-like A and basal-like cases were grade 1 carcinomas, while the percentage of luminal B cases was higher in grade 2 and 3 (Pearson Chi-square P=0.009). No difference in the percentage of molecular subtypes was evidenced between simple and complex/mixed carcinomas (Pearson Chi-square P=0.47). No significant results were obtained by survival analysis, even if basal-like had a more favourable prognosis than luminal-like. Conclusion. The panel of antibodies identified only 3 groups (luminal-like A and B, and basal-like) in the dog. Even though canine mammary tumours may be a model of human breast cancer, the existence of the same types of carcinoma as in the woman need to be confirmed. Canine mammary carcinomas show high molecular heterogeneity, which would benefit from a classification based on molecular differences. However, by multivariate analysis, the molecular classification appears a variable with a dependent value if compared to invasion and grade that are independent, suggesting that, at present, caution should be used in the application of such a classification to the dog, in which invasion and grade supply the most important prognostic information.

On Designing Compliant Actuators Based On Dielectric Elastomers

Dielectric Elastomers (DE) are incompressible dielectrics which can experience deviatoric (isochoric) finite deformations in response to applied large electric fields. Thanks to the strong electro-mechanical coupling, DE intrinsically offer great potentialities for conceiving novel solid-state mechatronic devices, in particular linear actuators, which are more integrated, lightweight, economic, silent, resilient and disposable than equivalent devices based on traditional technologies. Such systems may have a huge impact in applications where the traditional technology does not allow coping with the limits of weight or encumbrance, and with problems involving interaction with humans or unknown environments. Fields such as medicine, domotic, entertainment, aerospace and transportation may profit. For actuation usage, DE are typically shaped in thin films coated with compliant electrodes on both sides and piled one on the other to form a multilayered DE. DE-based Linear Actuators (DELA) are entirely constituted by polymeric materials and their overall performance is highly influenced by several interacting factors; firstly by the electromechanical properties of the film, secondly by the mechanical properties and geometry of the polymeric frame designed to support the film, and finally by the driving circuits and activation strategies. In the last decade, much effort has been focused in the devolvement of analytical and numerical models that could explain and predict the hyperelastic behavior of different types of DE materials. Nevertheless, at present, the use of DELA is limited. The main reasons are 1) the lack of quantitative and qualitative models of the actuator as a whole system 2) the lack of a simple and reliable design methodology. In this thesis, a new point of view in the study of DELA is presented which takes into account the interaction between the DE film and the film supporting frame. Hyperelastic models of the DE film are reported which are capable of modeling the DE and the compliant electrodes. The supporting frames are analyzed and designed as compliant mechanisms using pseudo-rigid body models and subsequent finite element analysis. A new design methodology is reported which optimize the actuator performances allowing to specifically choose its inherent stiffness. As a particular case, the methodology focuses on the design of constant force actuators. This class of actuators are an example of how the force control could be highly simplified. Three new DE actuator concepts are proposed which highlight the goodness of the proposed method.

Studio di marcatori biologici prognostici nel linfoma di Hodgkin

Recent reports showed that early-interim PET-scan is the only tool predicting treatment outcome in advanced-stage classical Hodgkin lymphoma (asCHL). We evaluated the prognostic impact of a series of immunohistochemical markers, mentioned in literature as prognostic factors, on tissue microarrays assembled from biopsies of 220 patients: STAT1, SAP, TOP2A, PCNA and CD20, both in neoplastic (HRSC) and microenvironment cells (MC); RRM2, MAD2, CDC2, BCL2, P53, BCL11A and EBER in HRSC; ALDH1A1, TIA-1, granzyme B, perforin, FOXP3, and PD-1 in MC. All patients had been treated with standard ABVD ± Rx therapy. Interim-PET after 2 ABVD courses was evaluated according to the criteria indicated by Gallamini in his study (Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2007). The survival analysis has been performed in a subset of 138 patients whose complete clinical information were available: the mean age was 33.3 years (14-79), the stage III-IVB in 98 and IIB in 40, and the mean follow-up 38.1 months (7.6-71.9). Histopathology review showed: NS-I 75, NS-II 22, MC 20, DL 3, and CHL/nos 18 cases. Interim-PET was positive in 30 patients, while treatment failure was recorded in 32. In univariate analysis the factors related to treatment outcome were BCL2 on HRSC (cut-off value 50%), STAT1/SAP on MC, and PET (Log-rank 6.9, 7.9 and 93.9 respectively). The combined expression of STAT1 and SAP was scored in three levels depending on the architectural pattern: score 0 for expression of both with a diffuse/rosetting pattern; score 1 for discordant combination of diffuse/rosetting and scattered patterns; score 2 for both markers with a scattered pattern; the 3y-PFS were 87.4%, 69.9% and 61.9% respectively. In multivariate analysis PET, BCL2 and STAT1/SAP remained significant (HR: 24.8, 4.6, 7.5 and 5.6, respectively; p<.01). The proposed model is able to predict treatment response in AsCHL, even if with a lower efficacy than PET. However, unlike PET, it can be applied upfront therapy.

Reconstruction of Etna recent flank eruptions for assessing diversion barrier project

The thesis contributed to the volcanic hazard assessment through the reconstruction of some historical flank eruptions of Etna in order to obtain quantitative data (volumes, effusion rates, etc.) for characterizing the recent effusive activity, quantifying the impact on the territory and defining mitigation actions for reducing the volcanic risk as for example containment barriers. The reconstruction was based on a quantitative approach using data extracted from aerial photographs and topographic maps. The approach allows to obtain the temporal evolution of the lava flow field and estimating the Time Average Discharge Rate (TADR) by dividing the volume emplaced over a given time interval for the corresponding duration. The analysis concerned the 2001, 1981 and 1928 Etna eruptions. The choice of these events is linked to their impact on inhabited areas. The results of the analysis showed an extraordinarily high effusion rate for the 1981 and 1928 eruptions (over 600 m^3/s), unusual for Etna eruptions. For the 1981 Etna eruption an eruptive model was proposed to explain the high discharge rate. The obtained TADRs were used as input data for simulations of the propagation of the lava flows for evaluating different scenarios of volcanic hazard and analyse different mitigation actions against lava flow invasion. It was experienced how numerical simulations could be adopted for evaluating the effectiveness of barrier construction and for supporting their optimal design. In particular, the gabions were proposed as an improvement for the construction of barriers with respect to the earthen barriers. The gabion barriers allow to create easily modular structures reducing the handled volumes and the intervention time. For evaluating operational constrain an experimental test was carried out to test the filling of the gabions with volcanic rock and evaluating their deformation during transport and placement.

Aspetti diagnostici, strategie terapeutiche ed esito clinico dei tumori primitivi colangiocellulari insorti su cirrosi

Background: The recent increasing incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma (ICC) in cirrhosis increased the problem of noninvasive differential diagnosis between ICC and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhosis. In literature there isn’t data about treatment and prognosis of ICC in cirrhosis. Aim: To investigate the role of the different imaging techniques in the diagnosis of ICC in cirrhosis; to analyze treatments and prognosis with particular attention to factors associated with survival. Methods: The data of 30 cirrhotic patients with ICC were retrospectively collected; patients were referred to Liver Units (S.Orsola-Malpighi and S.Matteo Hospitals) between 2005 and 2011. The results of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS), computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) were evaluated; the enhancement pattern at different imaging techniques were analysed, with particular attention to misdiagnosis of HCC. We evaluated the different treatments and survival of the study group and then we performed the survival analysis of different clinico-pathologic factors. Results: Twenty-five patients underwent CEUS, 27 CT and 10 MR. In 3 cases (12%) CEUS misdiagnosed ICC for HCC, in 7 cases (26%) CT misdiagnosed ICC and in 1 case (10%) MR misdiagnosed ICC. Patient were followed for a mean of 30 months (range:4-86), with a mean survival of 30 months. Twenty-four out of 30 patients were treated with curative approach, while the other 6 underwent TACE (n=4), radioembolization (n=1) or systemic treatment with Gemcitabine (n=1). The univariate analysis revealed that CA19-9 levels, surveillance program and nodule size were significantly related with survival. By multivariate analysis only nodule size £ 40mm was significant (p=0,004). Conclusion: Diagnosis of ICC in cirrhosis remains difficult because there isn’t a typical enhancement pattern and in some cases it cannot be distinguished from HCC by the different imaging techniques. The study of survival related factors shows that nodule size ≤ 40mm is correlated with improved survival.