Modello bayesiano per la riduzione dell'incertezza nella previsione delle piene del fiume Reno

Many efforts have been devoting since last years to reduce uncertainty in hydrological modeling predictions. The principal sources of uncertainty are provided by input errors, for inaccurate rainfall prediction, and model errors, given by the approximation with which the water flow processes in the soil and river discharges are described. The aim of the present work is to develop a bayesian model in order to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge predictions for the Reno river. The ’a priori’ distribution function is given by an autoregressive model, while the likelihood function is provided by a linear equation which relates observed values of discharge in the past and hydrological TOPKAPI model predictions obtained by the rainfall predictions of the limited-area model COSMO-LAMI. The ’a posteriori’ estimations are provided throw a H∞ filter, because the statistical properties of estimation errors are not known. In this work a stationary and a dual adaptive filter are implemented and compared. Statistical analysis of estimation errors and the description of three case studies of flood events occurred during the fall seasons from 2003 to 2005 are reported. Results have also revealed that errors can be described as a markovian process only at a first approximation. For the same period, an ensemble of ’a posteriori’ estimations is obtained throw the COSMO-LEPS rainfall predictions, but the spread of this ’a posteriori’ ensemble is not enable to encompass observation variability. This fact is related to the building of the meteorological ensemble, whose spread reaches its maximum after 5 days. In the future the use of a new ensemble, COSMO–SREPS, focused on the first 3 days, could be helpful to enlarge the meteorogical and, consequently, the hydrological variability.

Adaptive wireless multimedia communication systems

In recent years, due to the rapid convergence of multimedia services, Internet and wireless communications, there has been a growing trend of heterogeneity (in terms of channel bandwidths, mobility levels of terminals, end-user quality-of-service (QoS) requirements) for emerging integrated wired/wireless networks. Moreover, in nowadays systems, a multitude of users coexists within the same network, each of them with his own QoS requirement and bandwidth availability. In this framework, embedded source coding allowing partial decoding at various resolution is an appealing technique for multimedia transmissions. This dissertation includes my PhD research, mainly devoted to the study of embedded multimedia bitstreams in heterogenous networks, developed at the University of Bologna, advised by Prof. O. Andrisano and Prof. A. Conti, and at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), where I spent eighteen months as a visiting scholar, advised by Prof. L. B. Milstein and Prof. P. C. Cosman. In order to improve the multimedia transmission quality over wireless channels, joint source and channel coding optimization is investigated in a 2D time-frequency resource block for an OFDM system. We show that knowing the order of diversity in time and/or frequency domain can assist image (video) coding in selecting optimal channel code rates (source and channel code rates). Then, adaptive modulation techniques, aimed at maximizing the spectral efficiency, are investigated as another possible solution for improving multimedia transmissions. For both slow and fast adaptive modulations, the effects of imperfect channel estimation errors are evaluated, showing that the fast technique, optimal in ideal systems, might be outperformed by the slow adaptive modulation, when a real test case is considered. Finally, the effects of co-channel interference and approximated bit error probability (BEP) are evaluated in adaptive modulation techniques, providing new decision regions concepts, and showing how the widely used BEP approximations lead to a substantial loss in the overall performance.

Nonlinear Observers for Sensorless Control of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors

In this thesis, the industrial application of control a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor in a sensorless configuration has been faced, and in particular the task of estimating the unknown “parameters” necessary for the application of standard motor control algorithms. In literature several techniques have been proposed to cope with this task, among them the technique based on model-based nonlinear observer has been followed. The hypothesis of neglecting the mechanical dynamics from the motor model has been applied due to practical and physical considerations, therefore only the electromagnetic dynamics has been used for the observers design. First observer proposed is based on stator currents and Stator Flux dynamics described in a generic rotating reference frame. Stator flux dynamics are known apart their initial conditions which are estimated, with speed that is also unknown, through the use of the Adaptive Theory. The second observer proposed is based on stator currents and Rotor Flux dynamics described in a self-aligning reference frame. Rotor flux dynamics are described in the stationary reference frame exploiting polar coordinates instead of classical Cartesian coordinates, by means the estimation of amplitude and speed of the rotor flux. The stability proof is derived in a Singular Perturbation Framework, which allows for the use the current estimation errors as a measure of rotor flux estimation errors. The stability properties has been derived using a specific theory for systems with time scale separation, which guarantees a semi-global practical stability. For the two observer ideal simulations and real simulations have been performed to prove the effectiveness of the observers proposed, real simulations on which the effects of the Inverter nonlinearities have been introduced, showing the already known problems of the model-based observers for low speed applications.

Development of the optimal estimation method for inversion of stratospheric emission spectra and validation of HNO3 profiles

This doctoral thesis focuses on ground-based measurements of stratospheric nitric acid (HNO3)concentrations obtained by means of the Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS). Pressure broadened HNO3 emission spectra are analyzed using a new inversion algorithm developed as part of this thesis work and the retrieved vertical profiles are extensively compared to satellite-based data. This comparison effort I carried out has a key role in establishing a long-term (1991-2010), global data record of stratospheric HNO3, with an expected impact on studies concerning ozone decline and recovery. The first part of this work is focused on the development of an ad hoc version of the Optimal Estimation Method (Rodgers, 2000) in order to retrieve HNO3 spectra observed by means of GBMS. I also performed a comparison between HNO3 vertical profiles retrieved with the OEM and those obtained with the old iterative Matrix Inversion method. Results show no significant differences in retrieved profiles and error estimates, with the OEM providing however additional information needed to better characterize the retrievals. A final section of this first part of the work is dedicated to a brief review on the application of the OEM to other trace gases observed by GBMS, namely O3 and N2O. The second part of this study deals with the validation of HNO3 profiles obtained with the new inversion method. The first step has been the validation of GBMS measurements of tropospheric opacity, which is a necessary tool in the calibration of any GBMS spectra. This was achieved by means of comparisons among correlative measurements of water vapor column content (or Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV) since, in the spectral region observed by GBMS, the tropospheric opacity is almost entirely due to water vapor absorption. In particular, I compared GBMS PWV measurements collected during the primary field campaign of the ECOWAR project (Bhawar et al., 2008) with simultaneous PWV observations obtained with Vaisala RS92k radiosondes, a Raman lidar, and an IR Fourier transform spectrometer. I found that GBMS PWV measurements are in good agreement with the other three data sets exhibiting a mean difference between observations of ~9%. After this initial validation, GBMS HNO3 retrievals have been compared to two sets of satellite data produced by the two NASA/JPL Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments (aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) from 1991 to 1999, and on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura mission from 2004 to date). This part of my thesis is inserted in GOZCARDS (Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace gas Data Records for the Stratosphere), a multi-year project, aimed at developing a long-term data record of stratospheric constituents relevant to the issues of ozone decline and expected recovery. This data record will be based mainly on satellite-derived measurements but ground-based observations will be pivotal for assessing offsets between satellite data sets. Since the GBMS has been operated for more than 15 years, its nitric acid data record offers a unique opportunity for cross-calibrating HNO3 measurements from the two MLS experiments. I compare GBMS HNO3 measurements obtained from the Italian Alpine station of Testa Grigia (45.9° N, 7.7° E, elev. 3500 m), during the period February 2004 - March 2007, and from Thule Air Base, Greenland (76.5°N 68.8°W), during polar winter 2008/09, and Aura MLS observations. A similar intercomparison is made between UARS MLS HNO3 measurements with those carried out from the GBMS at South Pole, Antarctica (90°S), during the most part of 1993 and 1995. I assess systematic differences between GBMS and both UARS and Aura HNO3 data sets at seven potential temperature levels. Results show that, except for measurements carried out at Thule, ground based and satellite data sets are consistent within the errors, at all potential temperature levels.

Seismic sequences analysis for estimation of earthquake source parameters: corner frequency, stress drop, and seismic moment observations

The present study has been carried out with the following objectives: i) To investigate the attributes of source parameters of local and regional earthquakes; ii) To estimate, as accurately as possible, M0, fc, Δσ and their standard errors to infer their relationship with source size; iii) To quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion and to study the source scaling. This work is based on observational data of micro, small and moderate -earthquakes for three selected seismic sequences, namely Parkfield (CA, USA), Maule (Chile) and Ferrara (Italy). For the Parkfield seismic sequence (CA), a data set of 757 (42 clusters) repeating micro-earthquakes (0 ≤ MW ≤ 2), collected using borehole High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), have been analyzed and interpreted. We used the coda methodology to compute spectral ratios to obtain accurate values of fc , Δσ, and M0 for three target clusters (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Hawaii) of our data. We also performed a general regression on peak ground velocities to obtain reliable seismic spectra of all earthquakes. For the Maule seismic sequence, a data set of 172 aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 earthquake (3.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.2), recorded by more than 100 temporary broadband stations, have been analyzed and interpreted to quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion in this subduction zone. We completely calibrated the excitation and attenuation of the ground motion in Central Chile. For the Ferrara sequence, we calculated moment tensor solutions for 20 events from MW 5.63 (the largest main event occurred on May 20 2012), down to MW 3.2 by a 1-D velocity model for the crust beneath the Pianura Padana, using all the geophysical and geological information available for the area. The PADANIA model allowed a numerical study on the characteristics of the ground motion in the thick sediments of the flood plain.