Modello bayesiano per la riduzione dell'incertezza nella previsione delle piene del fiume Reno

Many efforts have been devoting since last years to reduce uncertainty in hydrological modeling predictions. The principal sources of uncertainty are provided by input errors, for inaccurate rainfall prediction, and model errors, given by the approximation with which the water flow processes in the soil and river discharges are described. The aim of the present work is to develop a bayesian model in order to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge predictions for the Reno river. The ’a priori’ distribution function is given by an autoregressive model, while the likelihood function is provided by a linear equation which relates observed values of discharge in the past and hydrological TOPKAPI model predictions obtained by the rainfall predictions of the limited-area model COSMO-LAMI. The ’a posteriori’ estimations are provided throw a H∞ filter, because the statistical properties of estimation errors are not known. In this work a stationary and a dual adaptive filter are implemented and compared. Statistical analysis of estimation errors and the description of three case studies of flood events occurred during the fall seasons from 2003 to 2005 are reported. Results have also revealed that errors can be described as a markovian process only at a first approximation. For the same period, an ensemble of ’a posteriori’ estimations is obtained throw the COSMO-LEPS rainfall predictions, but the spread of this ’a posteriori’ ensemble is not enable to encompass observation variability. This fact is related to the building of the meteorological ensemble, whose spread reaches its maximum after 5 days. In the future the use of a new ensemble, COSMO–SREPS, focused on the first 3 days, could be helpful to enlarge the meteorogical and, consequently, the hydrological variability.

Competitività in sostenibilità urbana e territoriale. L’Emilia Romagna, regione d’Europa

The thesis in Urban and Regional Geography titled “URBAN AND TERRITORIAL COMPETITIVENESS IN SUSTAINABILITY. EMILIA-ROMAGNA, REGION OF EUROPE” is divided into two sections. Section one is additionally composed by two chapters (chap. 1 and 2) and deals with theoretical and gnosiological issues. Section two, of two more chapters (chap. 3 and 4), provides practical contributions: these issues give explanatory patterns to interpret the performances of emiliano-romagnoli urban systems. Chapter one is an introductory chapter. It analyzes globalization that involves a larger and larger number of cities, rich or poor. It also considers the so called “digital divide” either as one of the major phenomena of this unhomogeneous development or as an interesting gnosiological and practical challenge of geography. Globalization is now involving all the cities, large or small, but the small ones have higher risks of exclusion: it depends on their more fragile socio-economic, cultural, and environmental urban structure. That’s why European Union (chapter two) promotes policies and endows politics to sustain cities, because urban systems are the basis for the territorial development. So, European, national and local Institutions are firmly interested in promoting urban and local interventions and projects. Section two deals with economic-geography methods, which consists on collecting indicators and the benchmarking methodology. It also specifically analyzes the urban systems of Emilia-Romagna. Consequences of the globalization on the cities are interpreted with a study of their local resources, intended as potentials for their development. The STeMA approach, proposed by Professor Maria Prezioso (University of Roma, “Tor Vergata”) and used by the ESPON (European Spatial Program Observation Network) project, describes the main “determinants” of the territorial and urban development. These are easily comparable to one another (similar or better performing). This approach achieves two goals. On one hand, it is possible to analyze every urban system in its all main characteristics and to preserve its historical and cultural factors. On another hand, each city is “knowable” and “understandable” by all scholars, as it is objectively comparable. So, urban planners can propose specific “multi-level” and “multi-varied” programs of governance. These will face globalization by exalting local empowerment.