Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

The Integrated European Project "GEHA - GEnetics of Healthy Aging": recruitment, health status assessment and survival of the Italian 90+ sibpairs

The present study is part of the EU Integrated Project “GEHA – Genetics of Healthy Aging” (Franceschi C et al., Ann N Y Acad Sci. 1100: 21-45, 2007), whose aim is to identify genes involved in healthy aging and longevity, which allow individuals to survive to advanced age in good cognitive and physical function and in the absence of major age-related diseases. Aims The major aims of this thesis were the following: 1. to outline the recruitment procedure of 90+ Italian siblings performed by the recruiting units of the University of Bologna (UNIBO) and Rome (ISS). The procedures related to the following items necessary to perform the study were described and commented: identification of the eligible area for recruitment, demographic aspects related to the need of getting census lists of 90+siblings, mail and phone contact with 90+ subjects and their families, bioethics aspects of the whole procedure, standardization of the recruitment methodology and set-up of a detailed flow chart to be followed by the European recruitment centres (obtainment of the informed consent form, anonimization of data by using a special code, how to perform the interview, how to collect the blood, how to enter data in the GEHA Phenotypic Data Base hosted at Odense). 2. to provide an overview of the phenotypic characteristics of 90+ Italian siblings recruited by the recruiting units of the University of Bologna (UNIBO) and Rome (ISS). The following items were addressed: socio-demographic characteristics, health status, cognitive assessment, physical conditions (handgrip strength test, chair-stand test, physical ability including ADL, vision and hearing ability, movement ability and doing light housework), life-style information (smoking and drinking habits) and subjective well-being (attitude towards life). Moreover, haematological parameters collected in the 90+ sibpairs as optional parameters by the Bologna and Rome recruiting units were used for a more comprehensive evaluation of the results obtained using the above mentioned phenotypic characteristics reported in the GEHA questionnaire. 3. to assess 90+ Italian siblings as far as their health/functional status is concerned on the basis of three classification methods proposed in previous studies on centenarians, which are based on: • actual functional capabilities (ADL, SMMSE, visual and hearing abilities) (Gondo et al., J Gerontol. 61A (3): 305-310, 2006); • actual functional capabilities and morbidity (ADL, ability to walk, SMMSE, presence of cancer, ictus, renal failure, anaemia, and liver diseases) (Franceschi et al., Aging Clin Exp Res, 12:77-84, 2000); • retrospectively collected data about past history of morbidity and age of disease onset (hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, stroke, cancer, osteopororis, neurological diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and ocular diseases) (Evert et al., J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 58A (3): 232-237, 2003). Firstly these available models to define the health status of long-living subjects were applied to the sample and, since the classifications by Gondo and Franceschi are both based on the present functional status, they were compared in order to better recognize the healthy aging phenotype and to identify the best group of 90+ subjects out of the entire studied population. 4. to investigate the concordance of health and functional status among 90+ siblings in order to divide sibpairs in three categories: the best (both sibs are in good shape), the worst (both sibs are in bad shape) and an intermediate group (one sib is in good shape and the other is in bad shape). Moreover, the evaluation wanted to discover which variables are concordant among siblings; thus, concordant variables could be considered as familiar variables (determined by the environment or by genetics). 5. to perform a survival analysis by using mortality data at 1st January 2009 from the follow-up as the main outcome and selected functional and clinical parameters as explanatory variables. Methods A total of 765 90+ Italian subjects recruited by UNIBO (549 90+ siblings, belonging to 258 families) and ISS (216 90+ siblings, belonging to 106 families) recruiting units are included in the analysis. Each subject was interviewed according to a standardized questionnaire, comprising extensively utilized questions that have been validated in previous European studies on elderly subjects and covering demographic information, life style, living conditions, cognitive status (SMMSE), mood, health status and anthropometric measurements. Moreover, subjects were asked to perform some physical tests (Hand Grip Strength test and Chair Standing test) and a sample of about 24 mL of blood was collected and then processed according to a common protocol for the preparation and storage of DNA aliquots. Results From the analysis the main findings are the following: - a standardized protocol to assess cognitive status, physical performances and health status of European nonagenarian subjects was set up, in respect to ethical requirements, and it is available as a reference for other studies in this field; - GEHA families are enriched in long-living members and extreme survival, and represent an appropriate model for the identification of genes involved in healthy aging and longevity; - two simplified sets of criteria to classify 90+ sibling according to their health status were proposed, as operational tools for distinguishing healthy from non healthy subjects; - cognitive and functional parameters have a major role in categorizing 90+ siblings for the health status; - parameters such as education and good physical abilities (500 metres walking ability, going up and down the stairs ability, high scores at hand grip and chair stand tests) are associated with a good health status (defined as “cognitive unimpairment and absence of disability”); - male nonagenarians show a more homogeneous phenotype than females, and, though far fewer in number, tend to be healthier than females; - in males the good health status is not protective for survival, confirming the male-female health survival paradox; - survival after age 90 was dependent mainly on intact cognitive status and absence of functional disabilities; - haemoglobin and creatinine levels are both associated with longevity; - the most concordant items among 90+ siblings are related to the functional status, indicating that they contain a familiar component. It is still to be investigated at what level this familiar component is determined by genetics or by environment or by the interaction between genetics, environment and chance (and at what level). Conclusions In conclusion, we could state that this study, in accordance with the main objectives of the whole GEHA project, represents one of the first attempt to identify the biological and non biological determinants of successful/unsuccessful aging and longevity. Here, the analysis was performed on 90+ siblings recruited in Northern and Central Italy and it could be used as a reference for others studies in this field on Italian population. Moreover, it contributed to the definition of “successful” and “unsuccessful” aging and categorising a very large cohort of our most elderly subjects into “successful” and “unsuccessful” groups provided an unrivalled opportunity to detect some of the basic genetic/molecular mechanisms which underpin good health as opposed to chronic disability. Discoveries in the topic of the biological determinants of healthy aging represent a real possibility to identify new markers to be utilized for the identification of subgroups of old European citizens having a higher risk to develop age-related diseases and disabilities and to direct major preventive medicine strategies for the new epidemic of chronic disease in the 21st century.

Towards Rapid Environmental Assessment and Coastal Forecasting in the Northern Adriatic Sea

A new Coastal Rapid Environmental Assessment (CREA) strategy has been developed and successfully applied to the Northern Adriatic Sea. CREA strategy exploits the recent advent of operational oceanography to establish a CREA system based on an operational regional forecasting system and coastal monitoring networks of opportunity. The methodology wishes to initialize a coastal high resolution model, nested within the regional forecasting system, blending the large scale parent model fields with the available coastal observations to generate the requisite field estimates. CREA modeling system consists of a high resolution, O(800m), Adriatic SHELF model (ASHELF) implemented into the Northern Adriatic basin and nested within the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) (Oddo et al. 2006). The observational system is composed by the coastal networks established in the framework of ADRICOSM (ADRiatic sea integrated COastal areaS and river basin Managment system) Pilot Project. An assimilation technique exerts a correction of the initial field provided by AFS on the basis of the available observations. The blending of the two data sets has been carried out through a multi-scale optimal interpolation technique developed by Mariano and Brown (1992). Two CREA weekly exercises have been conducted: the first, at the beginning of May (spring experiment); the second in middle August (summer experiment). The weeks have been chosen looking at the availability of all coastal observations in the initialization day and one week later to validate model results, verifying our predictive skills. ASHELF spin up time has been investigated too, through a dedicated experiment, in order to obtain the maximum forecast accuracy within a minimum time. Energetic evaluations show that for the Northern Adriatic Sea and for the forcing applied, a spin-up period of one week allows ASHELF to generate new circulation features enabled by the increased resolution and its total kinetic energy to establish a new dynamical balance. CREA results, evaluated by mean of standard statistics between ASHELF and coastal CTDs, show improvement deriving from the initialization technique and a good model performance in the coastal areas of the Northern Adriatic basin, characterized by a shallow and wide continental shelf subject to substantial freshwater influence from rivers. Results demonstrate the feasibility of our CREA strategy to support coastal zone management and wish an additional establishment of operational coastal monitoring activities to advance it.

A Web GIS Decision Support System For Coastal Risk Assessment and Mitigation Planning

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas around the world, billions of dollars in damage to property and infrastructure, and threatens the lives of millions of people. Therefore, disaster management and risk assessment aims at detecting vulnerability and capacities in order to reduce coastal flood disaster risk. In particular, non-specialized researchers, emergency management personnel, and land use planners require an accurate, inexpensive method to determine and map risk associated with storm surge events and long-term sea level rise associated with climate change. This study contributes to the spatially evaluation and mapping of social-economic-environmental vulnerability and risk at sub-national scale through the development of appropriate tools and methods successfully embedded in a Web-GIS Decision Support System. A new set of raster-based models were studied and developed in order to be easily implemented in the Web-GIS framework with the purpose to quickly assess and map flood hazards characteristics, damage and vulnerability in a Multi-criteria approach. The Web-GIS DSS is developed recurring to open source software and programming language and its main peculiarity is to be available and usable by coastal managers and land use planners without requiring high scientific background in hydraulic engineering. The effectiveness of the system in the coastal risk assessment is evaluated trough its application to a real case study.